ATL: ETA - Advisories

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ATL: ETA - Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 31, 2020 3:48 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Nine Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
APPROACHES NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 73.2W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 665 MI...1075 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of
the depression. Hurricane or tropical storm watches will likely be
required for portions of these countries later tonight or early
Sunday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Nine was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 73.2
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24
km/h), and this westward motion is expected to continue through
Sunday night. A slower motion toward the west-southwest and then
southwest is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track,
the center of the cyclone is expected to be near the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua by Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become
a tropical storm tonight. The system is then expected to become a
hurricane by Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Thursday afternoon, the depression is expected to
cause 5 to 10 inches of rain, with local 15-inch amounts, across
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and possibly the southern coast of
Hispaniola. Across portions of Central America, 10 to 15 inches of
rain, with local amounts to 25 inches are expected. This rainfall
should lead to flash flooding and river flooding, and could cause
landslides in areas of higher terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg



Tropical Depression Twenty-Nine Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020

Showers and thunderstorms have continued to become better organized
in association with a tropical wave which has been moving westward
across the central Caribbean Sea. It was unclear this morning if
the system had developed a closed low-level circulation, since
scatterometers have avoided the system over the past 24 hours, but
recent visible and microwave satellite images suggest that the
system almost certainly now has a well-defined center. For that
reason, the system is being designated as a tropical depression with
30-kt winds, based on Dvorak classifications of T2.0 from both TAFB
and SAB.

A low- to mid-level ridge axis that extends from the subtropical
Atlantic southwestward to Cuba and the Bahamas is currently steering
the depression toward the west (270 degrees) at an estimated speed
of 13 kt. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on the
depression's future track for the first 48 hours or so. The cyclone
is expected to continue westward for the first 36 hours and then
slow down and turn west-southwestward by 48 hours as it approaches
the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, in response to a building
ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. After that time, however, there is
significant divergence in the models. For example, the ECWMF and
its ensemble members continue on a faster westward motion across
Central America, while the GFS and its ensemble members stall the
system over the western Caribbean Sea through day 5. Given this
discrepancy, the NHC official track forecast shows a slow motion on
days 3 through 5, and brings the cyclone's center slowly across
northern Nicaragua, more or less in line with the multi-model
consensus aids. This forecast is of generally low confidence,
however, and significant changes could be required in later advisory
packages depending on model trends.

The waters over the Caribbean Sea remain very warm--around 29
degrees Celsius--and the environment is characterized by low
vertical shear of 10 kt or less. Along with plenty of ambient
moisture, these parameters suggest the system is primed for steady,
if not significant, strengthening during the next few days. The NHC
official forecast generally lies between the SHIPS guidance and the
HCCA corrected-consensus aid, which lie near the upper bound of the
intensity guidance, and it brings the system to hurricane strength
in 48 hours. The intensity forecast hinges greatly on whether or
not the cyclone's center moves inland over Central America, but
regardless, the system is expected to be a hurricane when it
approaches the Honduras and Nicaragua coasts in a few days.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to strengthen to a hurricane early
next week as it approaches the coast of Central America late Monday
and Monday night, and there is a risk of storm surge,
hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall for portions of Nicaragua
and Honduras. Hurricane Watches could be needed for portions of
those areas later tonight.

2. Through Thursday afternoon, heavy rainfall from the system will
likely lead to flash flooding and river flooding across portions of
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Central America, which could result
in landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flooding is also possible
near the southern coast of Hispaniola.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 15.0N 73.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 15.1N 75.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 15.4N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 15.5N 80.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 15.1N 82.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 14.3N 83.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 13.8N 83.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
96H 04/1800Z 13.5N 85.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 05/1800Z 14.0N 86.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:49 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ETA...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN COASTS
OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 74.2W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Honduras has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border.

The Government of Nicaragua has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
northeastern coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border
to Puerto Cabezas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border.
* The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua
border to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely
be required for portions of these countries later tonight or on
Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 74.2 West. Eta is moving
toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected
to continue through Sunday night or Monday morning. A slower
motion toward the west-southwest and then southwest is forecast on
Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the
cyclone is expected to be near the northeastern coasts of Nicaragua
and Honduras by Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Eta is
expected to become a hurricane by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Thursday evening, Eta is expected to cause 5 to
10 inches of rain, with local 15-inch amounts, across Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands, and possibly the southern coast of Hispaniola.
Across portions of Central America, 10 to 15 inches of rain, with
local amounts to 25 inches are expected. This rainfall may lead to
flash flooding and river flooding, and could lead to landslides in
areas of higher terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven





Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020

Satellite imagery indicates that shower activity associated with the
cyclone continues to become better organized, with a convective band
wrapping about halfway around the center. Satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 35 kt, and the CIMSS
satellite consensus is near 40 kt. Based on these data, the
depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Eta, the twenty-eighth
named storm of the 2020 season. This ties the record for storms set
in the 2005 season and is the first time the name Eta has been used
in the Atlantic basin.

The initial motion is 275/13. A low- to mid-level ridge axis that
extends from the subtropical Atlantic southwestward to Cuba and the
Bahamas is currently the main steering influence, and the model
guidance is in good agreement that this feature should cause the
storm to move westward for the next 24-36 h. Between 36-72 h, a
building low- to mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico should
cause Eta to turn west-southwestward as it approaches the coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras. Beyond that time, there remains
significant spread in the models, with the GFS showing a slow
motion toward the northwest near the coast of Honduras while the
ECMWF/UKMET show a continued west-southwestward motion into the
Pacific. Given the spread, the NHC official track forecast shows
a slow motion on days 3 through 5, and brings the cyclone's center
slowly across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras. The new forecast
track is close to the multi-model consensus, and the 72-120 h part
remains low confidence.

Eta is over warm water and is in environment of light vertical wind
shear. These conditions are expected to continue until the system
nears the coast of Central America on 60-72 h. Thus, steady to
possibly rapid strengthening is expected, with the storm forecast to
reach hurricane strength between 36-48 h. The intensity guidance
has trended stronger since the last advisory, and this part of the
new intensity forecast is now a little below the intensity
consensus. After 72 h, the intensity forecast is tied to whether or
not the cyclone's center moves inland over Central America, and the
current forecast is based on the forecast track that takes the
center well inland.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to strengthen to a hurricane early
next week as it approaches the coast of Central America late Monday
and Monday night, and there is a risk of storm surge,
hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall for portions of Nicaragua
and Honduras where Hurricane Watches have been issued. Hurricane
warnings could be needed for portions of those areas on Sunday.

2. Through Thursday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta may lead to
flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands, and Central America, which could lead to landslides
in areas of higher terrain. Flooding is also possible near the
southern coast of Hispaniola, depending upon the track of the storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 15.0N 74.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 15.1N 76.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 15.3N 78.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 15.2N 80.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 14.7N 82.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 14.2N 82.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 13.7N 83.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
96H 05/0000Z 14.0N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 06/0000Z 14.5N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:07 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2020

...ETA CONTINUES WESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 75.7W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border.
* The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua
border to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will
likely be required for portions of these countries later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 75.7 West. Eta is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected to continue today and
tonight. A slower motion toward the west-southwest is forecast on
Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the
cyclone is expected to be near the northeastern coasts of Nicaragua
and Honduras by Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and Eta is expected to become a hurricane
by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch
area by early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible in
this area by Monday night.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday evening, Eta is expected to produce 5 to
10 inches of rain, with local maximum amounts of 15 inches across
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the southern coast of Hispaniola.
Across northern Honduras and northern Nicaragua, rainfall totals of
10 to 20 inches, with local maximum amounts of 30 inches are
expected. This rainfall may lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher
terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2020

Eta has not become appreciably better organized over the past few
hours. A large convective band is evident well to the east and
northeast of the estimated center, but this band does not have much
curvature at this time. A small burst of deep convection is
occurring near or over the center, which is likely the early stages
of the development of a Central Dense Overcast. Currently, there
is a significant amount of lightning in the outer band but little
lightning near the center. The intensity is held at 35 kt for this
advisory, in agreement with Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.
Eta will be moving over very warm waters of SSTs above 29 deg C and
in an environment of fairly light vertical shear. Therefore,
strengthening is likely. The official forecast, like the
previous ones, calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane before
approaching Central America. There is also a possibility of rapid
strengthening, as suggested by the SHIPS Rapid Intensification
Index. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the latest
corrected consensus prediction up to the expected landfall and
follows the Decay-SHIPS guidance after that point.

The center location is somewhat uncertain, and my best estimate of
initial motion is about the same as before, or 275/13 kt. The
track forecast reasoning has not changed significantly. A
mid-level ridge to the north and northwest of Eta should cause a
westward or west-southwestward motion for the next few days. This
would take the cyclone inland over Central America in 72 hours or
so. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one, and
lies near the simple model consensus and a little north of the
corrected consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Eta is expected to strengthen to a hurricane early next week as
it approaches the coast of Central America early Tuesday, and there
is a risk of storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall
for portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, where Hurricane Watches
have been issued. Hurricane warnings could be needed for portions
of those areas later today.

2. Through Thursday afternoon, heavy rainfall from Eta may lead to
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with
landslides in areas of higher terrain across portions of Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Hispaniola, northern
Honduras and northern Nicaragua.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 15.2N 75.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 15.3N 77.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 15.3N 79.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 15.1N 81.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 14.7N 82.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 14.4N 83.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 14.2N 83.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
96H 05/0600Z 14.3N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 06/0600Z 15.0N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:56 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2020

...WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...
...SLOW-MOVING ETA IS LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 77.2W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Nicaragua has issued a Hurricane Warning from
the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi.

The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 77.2 West. Eta is moving
toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected to continue through
tonight. A slower motion toward the west-southwest is forecast on
Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the
cyclone is expected to be near the northeastern coasts of Nicaragua
and Honduras by Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Eta is
expected to become a hurricane by late Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area by early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible in
this area by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the Tropical Storm Warning area by late Monday, and hurricane
conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by early
Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Thursday evening:

Central and northern Nicaragua into much of Honduras: 15 to 25
inches, isolated amounts of 35 inches.

Eastern Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches, isolated
amounts of 25 inches.

Jamaica: 5 to 10 inches, isolated amounts of 15 inches over southern
areas.

Southern Haiti and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches, isolated
amounts of 10 inches.

This rainfall may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river
flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Brown/Berg


Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2020

Eta appears to be gradually becoming better organized this morning.
A small area of persistent, deep convection near and over the center
has supported the development of a small central dense overcast.
Meanwhile, a larger convective band with limited curvature is noted
well northeast and east of the storm center. Objective intensity
estimates from UW-CIMSS and subjective Dvorak classifications from
TAFB and SAB support an initial intensity of 35 kt. It should be
noted that the center was relocated a bit farther south this morning
based on overnight microwave imagery. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate Eta this afternoon.

Weak vertical wind shear and high oceanic heat content should
support steady strengthening over the next couple of days. The SHIPS
Rapid Intensification Index still indicates the potential for rapid
strengthening, and the official NHC intensity forecast lies on the
higher end of the guidance envelope. The current forecast shows Eta
becoming a hurricane by 36 h, and continued strengthening is
forecast through landfall. Once inland, Eta should quickly weaken
over the mountainous terrain of Central America.

The tropical storm is moving westward at around 13 kt. A westward or
west-southwestward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed
is expected over the next several days, as Eta is steered by a
mid-level ridge positioned to its north and northwest. The track
guidance remains fairly tightly clustered through about 72 h, and
the only change with this forecast is a slight southward correction
based on the relocated center position. The official NHC forecast
now brings Eta inland over Central America by 60 h. There is
increased uncertainty in the track forecast post-landfall, with a
range of plausible outcomes. While much of the guidance suggests Eta
will spin down and weaken over Central America or possibly cross
into the eastern Pacific, some model solutions indicate the
potential for Eta or its remnants to re-emerge over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea at or beyond day 5. For now, the official NHC forecast
remains close to the previous one and the corrected consensus aid
HCCA, which keeps the cyclone inland over Central America through
day 5.


Key Messages:

1. Eta is expected to strengthen to a hurricane before it reaches
the coast of Central America early Tuesday, and there is a risk of
storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall for portions
of Nicaragua and Honduras, where Hurricane and Tropical Storm
Warnings have been issued.

2. Through Thursday afternoon, heavy rainfall from Eta may lead to
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions
of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Central America, along with
landslides in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 14.8N 77.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 14.9N 78.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 14.9N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 14.5N 81.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 14.2N 82.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 13.9N 83.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
72H 04/1200Z 13.8N 84.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 05/1200Z 14.1N 86.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 06/1200Z 14.6N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Brown/Berg
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:00 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
100 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2020

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ETA...
...SLOW-MOVING ETA IS LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 78.1W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 78.1 West. Eta is moving
toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with some
decrease in forward speed is expected to continue through tonight. A
slower motion toward the west-southwest is forecast on Monday and
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to be
near the northeastern coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras by Tuesday
morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple
of days, and Eta is expected to become a hurricane by late Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area by early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible in
this area by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the Tropical Storm Warning area by late Monday, and hurricane
conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by early
Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Thursday evening:

Central and northern Nicaragua into much of Honduras: 15 to 25
inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510
mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Jamaica: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15
inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

Southern Haiti and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125
mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm).

This rainfall may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river
flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Reinhart/Berg
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 01, 2020 3:54 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2020

...ETA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT...
...LIKELY TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 78.9W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from
west of Punta Patuca westward to Punta Castilla.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward
to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 78.9 West. Eta is moving
toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with some
decrease in forward speed is expected tonight. A slower motion
toward the west-southwest is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to approach the
northeastern coast of Nicaragua on Monday, and make landfall within
the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua Monday night or early
Tuesday. Eta is forecast to move inland over northern Nicaragua
through early Wednesday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
24 to 36 hours, and Eta is expected to become a hurricane tonight,
with additional strengthening likely until the hurricane makes
landfall Monday night or early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area beginning Monday night, with tropical storm conditions
possible in this area by Monday afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by
Monday afternoon, and hurricane conditions are possible in
the Hurricane Watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm
conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by early
Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday afternoon:

Central and northern Nicaragua into much of Honduras: 15 to 25
inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510
mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 20 inches (510 mm).

Jamaica: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15
inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

Southern Haiti and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2020

Eta has continued to quickly become better organized today with an
increase in banding and the development of a central dense overcast
feature. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft that has provided a
couple of center fixes this afternoon has found a strengthening
tropical storm. The aircraft has reported a minimum pressure of
992 mb and a 30 n-mi-wide eye that is open to the southwest. A
blend of the SFMR and flight-level wind data support an initial wind
speed of 55 kt for this advisory. Given the much improved
inner-core structure as reported by the reconnaissance aircraft and
the favorable environmental conditions of low vertical wind shear
and high ocean heat content, additional strengthening is likely.
The intensity guidance is much higher this cycle, and the various
rapid intensification models show a much more significant chance of
rapid strengthening over the next 24 to 36 hours. The DTOPS model
indicates a 71 percent chance of a 30-kt increase in wind speed over
the next 24 hours, while the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows
a 53 percent chance of a 45-kt increase over the next 36 hours.
Based on the higher initial intensity and the more bullish
guidance, the NHC intensity forecast has been increased and
essentially calls for rapid strengthening until Eta reaches the
coast of Central America. Once inland, Eta should quickly weaken
over the mountainous terrain of Nicaragua and Honduras.

Eta is still moving steadily westward or 270 degrees at about 14
kt. A westward motion at a somewhat slower forward speed is
expected tonight. On Monday, Eta is forecast to turn southwestward
at a slower forward speed when a mid-level ridge builds to the
north and northwest of the cyclone. Eta is forecast to move inland
over northeastern Nicaragua within the Hurricane Warning area
Monday night or early Tuesday. The dynamical models are in
relatively good agreement through about 72 hours, expect for the
HWRF which shows a more northern track and keeps Eta offshore for
much of the period. This solution is considered an outlier at this
time, and the NHC track is in good agreement with the various
global models and the HFIP corrected consensus model. Some model
solutions still suggest Eta or its remnants will re-emerge over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea at or beyond day 5. The new NHC 5-day
position is still inland near the Gulf of Honduras close to the
various consensus aids, but large uncertainty exists in the
forecast at that time range due to the large spread in the track
guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Eta is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane tonight, and
additional strengthening is forecast before it reaches the
northeastern coast of Nicaragua Monday night or early Tuesday, where
a Hurricane Warning is in effect. A Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect for a portion of the northeastern coast of Honduras.

2. Through Friday afternoon, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

3. A life-threatening storm surge, along with damaging waves, is
expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near
and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Water
levels could reach as high as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels
in some parts of the hurricane warning area. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 14.9N 78.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 15.0N 80.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 14.7N 82.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 14.2N 83.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 14.0N 83.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
60H 04/0600Z 14.0N 84.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 04/1800Z 14.1N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 05/1800Z 14.7N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 06/1800Z 15.5N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:57 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
700 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2020

...ETA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT...
...WILL BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND
FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 79.5W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward
to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 79.5 West. Eta is moving
toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with some
decrease in forward speed is expected tonight. A slower motion
toward the west-southwest is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to approach the
northeastern coast of Nicaragua on Monday, and make landfall within
the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua Monday night or early
Tuesday. The center of Eta is forecast to move inland over northern
Nicaragua through early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
24 to 36 hours, and Eta is expected to become a hurricane later
tonight, with additional strengthening likely until the hurricane
makes landfall Monday night or early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central is 989 mb (29.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area beginning Monday night, with tropical storm conditions
possible in this area by Monday afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by
Monday afternoon, and hurricane conditions are possible in
the Hurricane Watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm
conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by early
Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday afternoon:

Central and northern Nicaragua into much of Honduras: 15 to 25
inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510
mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 20 inches (510 mm).

Jamaica: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15
inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

Southern Haiti and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:53 pm

Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2020

...ETA CLOSE TO BECOMING A HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 80.0W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward
to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 80.0 West. Eta is moving
toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through Monday morning. A slower motion toward
the west-southwest is forecast by Monday afternoon and continuing
into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected
to approach the northeastern coast of Nicaragua Monday afternoon,
and make landfall within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua
Monday night or early Tuesday. The center of Eta is forecast to move
farther inland over northern Nicaragua through early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast to continue during the next
36 hours, and Eta is expected to become a hurricane by early Monday
morning. Additional strengthening is likely thereafter, and Eta is
expected to be a major hurricane when landfall occurs Monday night
or early Tuesday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will
be investigating Eta later tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area beginning Monday night, with tropical storm conditions
possible in this area by Monday afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by
Monday afternoon, and hurricane conditions are possible in
the Hurricane Watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm
conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by early
Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday evening:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510
mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches
(75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall would lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding would be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2020

Eta has continued to become better organized this evening, including
the development of an impressive Central Dense Overcast (CDO) with
cloud tops colder than -90C near the center, improved banding
features in the northwestern semicircle, and the formation of a
pinhole mid-level eye noted in 01/2322Z 91GHz SSMI/S microwave
imagery. Water vapor imagery also indicates that the upper-level
outflow pattern has continued to expand, with dual outflow channels
having formed to the northeast and the southwest. Satellite
intensity estimates are a consensus T3.5/55 kt from TAFB, SAB, and
UW-CIMSS ADT. However, the initial intensity is set a little higher
at 60 kt based on the pinhole eye feature...and this intensity
estimate is probably conservative. An Air Force Reserve hurricane
hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Eta in a few hours.

Eta has slowed down but is still moving westward, or 270/11 kt. An
expansive subtropical ridge that extends from the southwestern
Atlantic across the Bahamas, Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico is
expected to keep Eta moving in a general westward direction through
Monday morning. By Monday afternoon and evening, the portion of the
ridge over the Gulf is forecast to build southward and eastward in
the wake of an exiting mid-latitude trough currently moving across
the eastern and southeastern United States. The increased ridging
will act to force Eta west-southwestward and eventually
southwestward over the next 36 hours, resulting in landfall along
the northeastern coast of Nicaragua. After moving inland, steering
currents are forecast to weaken significantly on days 3-5 as another
trough digs southeastward out of the U.S. Plains and into the Gulf
of Mexico, eroding the Gulf ridge and causing Eta to drift slowly
westward across Central America. Compared to the preponderance of
the the model guidance, the HWRF solution of Eta remaining just
offshore over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is considered to be an
outlier. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous
advisory track, and lies close to the simple-consensus models TVCA
and GFEX, which are a little to the right of the corrected-consensus
model, HCCA. Based on the new NHC track forecast, no changes are
required to the existing tropical cyclone warnings and watches in
effect.

Eta has rapidly intensified 20 kt during the past 12 h. Given the
much improved inner-core structure as noted in the SSMI/S imagery,
combined with sea-surface temperatures in excess of 29 deg C,
mid-level humidity values greater than 80 percent, and the already
impressive outflow pattern, Eta should continue to rapidly
strengthen until landfall occurs. The main question is: how much
strengthening will take place? Some of the more reliable intensity
guidance brings the cyclone up to 105-110 kt in 36 hours, with the
HWRF model bringing Eta to near category-4 strength. The new NHC
intensity forecast shows Eta as a major hurricane in 36 hours when
it is expected to be located just inland over northeastern
Nicaragua, but a stronger intensity is highly probable just before
landfall occurs. Rapid weakening is forecast thereafter while the
cyclone moves over the rugged, mountainous terrain of Nicaragua and
Honduras, with Eta possibly devolving into a large, quasi-stationary
Central American Gyre (CAG).

Key Messages:

1. Eta is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by early Monday
morning. Additional strengthening is forecast thereafter, and Eta
is expected to be a major hurricane before it reaches the
northeastern coast of Nicaragua Monday night or early Tuesday, where
a Hurricane Warning is in effect. A Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect for a portion of the northeastern coast of Honduras.

2. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the
Cayman Islands.

3. A life-threatening storm surge, along with damaging waves, is
expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near
and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Water levels
could reach as high as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in
some parts of the hurricane warning area. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 14.9N 80.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 14.8N 81.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 14.5N 82.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 14.1N 83.4W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/0000Z 14.0N 84.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
60H 04/1200Z 14.0N 85.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/0000Z 14.2N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/0000Z 14.9N 88.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 07/0000Z 15.7N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#9 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:34 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020

...ETA BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND
LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 80.9W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward
to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located
near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 80.9 West. Eta is moving toward
the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue through this morning. A slower motion toward the
west-southwest is forecast by this afternoon and continuing into
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to
approach the northeastern coast of Nicaragua this afternoon, and
make landfall within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua by
early Tuesday. The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland
over northern Nicaragua through early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening, possibly rapid, is expected
through early Tuesday, and Eta could be a major hurricane when
landfall occurs by early Tuesday. Weakening will begin after the
system moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area beginning tonight, with tropical storm conditions possible in
this area by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in the Tropical Storm Warning area by this afternoon, and
hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by
early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday evening:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510
mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches
(75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall would lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding would be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020

Eta has continued to become better organized, with a distinct
Central Dense Overcast surrounded by many banding features. A
low-level eye feature was seen in GPM Microwave Imager data, and
Dvorak intensity estimates are at 65 kt from both TAFB and SAB.
Based on this, the system is upgraded to a hurricane. Continued
strengthening is likely, given the very high oceanic heat content
and only moderate easterly vertical shear. The official forecast
calls for rapid intensification, in line with the SHIPS Rapid
Intensification Index which shows a 48 percent chance of a 30 kt
increase over 24 hours. Although not explicitly shown, Eta could
very well be a 100-kt major hurricane when it crosses the coastline.
After landfall, weakening will occur while the cyclone interacts
with the very mountainous terrain of Central America. Even though
official forecast points are shown through day 5, it is doubtful
that the surface circulation could survive after being inland that
long over the mountains of Nicaragua and Honduras. Although some
of the global models are showing a cyclone over the northwestern
Caribbean later this week and into the weekend, it is not certain
whether this is Eta, or a new system that could form in that area.

The hurricane is moving westward, or at about 265/10 kt. The track
forecast philosophy remains basically unchanged. For the next few
days, Eta should move westward or west-southwestward to the south
and southeast of a mid-tropospheric high pressure system centered
near the western Gulf of Mexico coast. The official track
forecast is nearly identical to the previous one, and also very
similar to the various model consensus predictions.

Since this is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes
landfall in Central America, torrential rains and flooding will be
a major threat from Eta.


Key Messages:

1. Eta is forecast to continue to strengthen, and it could become a
major hurricane before it reaches the northeastern coast of
Nicaragua early Tuesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. A
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of the
northeastern coast of Honduras.

2. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the
Cayman Islands.

3. A life-threatening storm surge, along with damaging waves, is
expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near
and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Water levels
could reach as high as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in
some parts of the hurricane warning area. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 14.8N 80.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 14.6N 82.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 14.2N 83.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 14.0N 83.7W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/0600Z 13.9N 84.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 04/1800Z 14.0N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/0600Z 14.4N 86.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/0600Z 15.2N 88.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 07/0600Z 15.8N 88.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#10 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:31 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
700 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS ETA QUICKLY
STRENGTHENING...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND
LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 81.1W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward
to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located
near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 81.1 West. Eta is moving toward
the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue through this morning. A slower motion toward the
west-southwest is forecast by this afternoon and continuing into
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to
approach the northeastern coast of Nicaragua this afternoon, and
make landfall within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua by
early Tuesday. The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland
over northern Nicaragua through early Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150
km/h) with higher gusts. Continued strengthening, possibly rapid,
is expected through early Tuesday, and Eta could be a major
hurricane when landfall occurs by early Tuesday. Weakening will
begin after the system moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 974 mb (28.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area beginning tonight, with tropical storm conditions possible in
this area by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in the Tropical Storm Warning area by this afternoon, and
hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by
early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday evening:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510
mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches
(75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall would lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding would be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#11 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:56 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020

...ETA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE SOON...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH
FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 81.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward
to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Eta was located
near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 81.5 West. Eta is moving toward
the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower motion toward the
west-southwest is forecast by this afternoon and will continue
into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected
to approach the northeastern coast of Nicaragua later today, and
make landfall within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua on
Tuesday. The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over
northern Nicaragua through Wednesday night.

Reconnaissance aircraft and satellite data indicate that Eta is
rapidly strengthening. Maximum sustained winds have increased to
near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid
strengthening is expected through early Tuesday, and Eta is expected
to become a major hurricane very soon. Weakening will begin after
the system moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta’s eyewall
moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area beginning tonight,
with tropical storm conditions expected by this afternoon. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by
this afternoon, and hurricane conditions are possible in the
Hurricane Watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday evening:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches
(75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall would lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding would be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown




Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020

Eta has become an impressive November hurricane as it continues to
undergo rapid strengthening. Visible and infrared satellite imagery
reveals a very symmetric Central Dense Overcast with cloud top
temperatures below -80C. A warm spot has recently become apparent in
infrared imagery while a small eye has been seen microwave imagery
and recent visible satellite data. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft that completed two center penetrations into Eta this
morning reported a minimum pressure of around 972 mb, and flight-
level and SFMR winds that supported an intensity of around 85 kt.
The plane also reported a 12 n-mi-wide eye on its second pass
through the center. With the continued improvement in organization
since the plane departed, the initial intensity has been increased
to 95 kt, as the eye has become more apparent. Low vertical wind
shear and warm sea surface temperatures ahead of Eta are expected to
allow for continued rapid strengthening during the next 12 to 24
hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast is above all of the
intensity aids and now calls for Eta to become a category 4
hurricane before it nears the coast of Nicaragua. After landfall,
Eta should quickly weaken while it moves over the mountainous
terrain of Central America.

The hurricane is moving westward or 265 degrees at 8 kt, a little
slower than before. A mid-level ridge building over the
south-central United States is expected to cause Eta to turn
west-southwestward later today, and this motion should bring the
center of the hurricane near the coast of Nicaragua within the
hurricane warning area Tuesday morning. Eta is forecast to then turn
westward, moving farther inland over Central America. The track
guidance is tightly clustered during the first 48 hours or so, but
the models generally show a slower forward motion than before, and
the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Although
Eta's low-level center may not survive after being inland over
Central America for so long, most of the global models depict a
cyclone over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later this week and into
the weekend which appears to develop from at least a part of Eta's
remnants, and the new NHC track forecast shows the system emerging
over the northwest Caribbean Sea after 96 h. However, the
uncertainty in the long-range portion of the forecast remains quite
high.

Since Eta likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes
landfall in Central America, torrential rains and flooding will be
a major threat from Eta.

Key Messages:

1. Eta is forecast to strengthen to a major hurricane very soon, and
additional strengthening is likely before it reaches the
northeastern coast of Nicaragua on Tuesday. Catastrophic wind damage
is expected where Eta’s eyewall moves onshore, and preparations
should be rushed to completion within the Hurricane Warning area.

2. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will likely lead
to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the
Cayman Islands.

3. A potentially catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge,
along with battering waves, is expected along portions of the
northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the
center makes landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 12 to 18
feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning
area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 14.8N 81.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 14.4N 82.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 14.0N 83.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 13.9N 83.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/1200Z 13.9N 84.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/0000Z 14.2N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/1200Z 14.6N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/1200Z 15.8N 87.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 07/1200Z 17.5N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#12 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:52 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
100 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2020

...ETA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH
FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 82.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward
to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Eta was located near
latitude 14.7 North, longitude 82.0 West. Eta is moving toward the
west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower motion toward the
west-southwest is forecast this afternoon and will continue into
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to
approach the northeastern coast of Nicaragua later today, and make
landfall within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua on Tuesday.
The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern
Nicaragua through Wednesday night.

Satellite data indicate that Eta continues to rapidly strengthen.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Eta is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Continued strengthening is
expected until Eta reaches the coast of Nicaragua. Weakening will
begin after the system moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Etas eyewall
moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area beginning tonight,
with tropical storm conditions expected by this afternoon. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by
this afternoon, and hurricane conditions are possible in the
Hurricane Watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday evening:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches
(75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall would lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding would be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#13 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:50 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2020

...ETA BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AS CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH
FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 82.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward
to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours or so. Preparations to protect life and property should be
completed.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located
near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 82.3 West. Eta is moving toward
the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through early Tuesday. A slower westward or
west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Tuesday and
continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center
of Eta is expected to make landfall along the coast of Nicaragua
within the Hurricane Warning area tonight or early Tuesday. The
center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern
Nicaragua through Wednesday night, and then move across central
portions of Honduras on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts. Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast
until Eta reaches the coast of Nicaragua. Weakening will begin
after the system moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall
moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area beginning tonight,
with tropical storm conditions beginning within the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area tonight, and hurricane conditions are possible in the
Hurricane Watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday evening:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches
(75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding are also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg

NNNN



Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2020

Eta is an extremely impressive hurricane in both visible and
infrared satellite imagery. The hurricane has a very small eye that
is located within a symmetric Central Dense Overcast with cloud top
temperatures below -80C. Although objective Dvorak estimates are
lower due to the technique's difficulty in analyzing the correct
scene type because of the pinhole eye, data T-numbers from both TAFB
and SAB analysts reached 6.0 on the Dvorak scale at 18Z, which
equates to a wind speed of 115 kt. A recent UW/CIMSS SATCON
intensity estimate also supports category 4 intensity. As mentioned
in previous advisories over the past 24 hours, the environment ahead
of Eta is forecast to remain quite favorable with low vertical wind
shear and warm sea surface temperatures. These conditions should
allow for additional strengthening, however a difficult-to-predict
eyewall replacement cycle could begin at any time which could cause
Eta's intensity to begin to level off. Since there are no signs of
an eyewall replacement yet, the updated NHC intensity forecast calls
for continued rapid strengthening for another 6 to 12 hours, and it
is again at the upper-end of the guidance envelope. After landfall,
Eta should quickly weaken while it moves over the mountainous
terrain of Central America.

The hurricane has turned west-southwestward with an initial motion
estimate of 255/8 kt. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged
from this morning. A mid-level ridge over the south-central United
States should steer Eta west-southwestward toward the coast of
Nicaragua with the hurricane making landfall tonight or early
Tuesday. After landfall, Eta is forecast to turn westward, and then
west-northwestward while it moves over Central America through
midweek. Eta's surface circulation may not survive its trek over
the mountainous terrain of Central America, but most of the global
models continue to depict a cyclone over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea by later this week and into the weekend which appears to
develop from at least a part of Eta's remnants. Therefore, the NHC
track forecast continues to show the system emerging over the
northwestern Caribbean late in the period, however the long range
portion of the forecast remains quite uncertain.

Since Eta is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes
landfall in Central America, torrential rains and flooding will be
a major threat.

Key Messages:

1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves
onshore along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua tonight or early
Tuesday. Tropical storm force winds are beginning to reach the
coast within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua, and residents
there should have completed their preparations. A Tropical Storm
Warning is also in effect for the northeastern coast of Honduras.

2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with
destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes
landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 12 to 18 feet above
normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area.
Preparations to protect life and property should now be complete.

3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will likely
lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river
flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides
in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also
possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern
Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 14.5N 82.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 14.1N 83.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 14.0N 83.7W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/0600Z 14.0N 84.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/1800Z 14.2N 85.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/0600Z 14.7N 86.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1800Z 15.5N 88.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/1800Z 16.7N 88.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/1800Z 18.0N 86.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#14 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:53 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
700 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2020

...ETA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING,
AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 82.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward
to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours or so. Preparations to protect life and property should be
completed.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located
near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 82.4 West. Eta is moving toward
the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through early Tuesday. A slower westward or
west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by Tuesday afternoon
and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Eta is expected to make landfall along the coast of Nicaragua within
the Hurricane Warning area early Tuesday. The center of Eta is
forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through
Wednesday night, and then move across central portions of Honduras
on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h)
with higher gusts. Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast
until Eta reaches the coast of Nicaragua. Weakening will begin
after the cyclone moves inland. An Air Force Reserve hurricane
hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate Eta.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall
moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area beginning tonight,
with tropical storm conditions beginning within the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning
area tonight, and hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane
Watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible
in the Tropical Storm Watch area by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday evening:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches
(75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding are also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Cangialosi/Papin
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#15 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:56 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT ETA HAS CONTINUED
TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING,
AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 82.7W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward
to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours or so. Preparations to protect life and property should be
completed.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of of the eye of dangerous
Hurricane Eta was located by reconnaissance aircraft and radar from
San Andreas near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 82.7 West. Eta is
moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through early Tuesday. A
slower westward or west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by
Tuesday afternoon and continue through Thursday. On the forecast
track, the center of Eta is expected to make landfall along the
coast of Nicaragua within the Hurricane Warning area early Tuesday.
The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern
Nicaragua through Wednesday night, and then move across central
portions of Honduras on Thursday.

Reports from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta
is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 12 hours, and
Eta could become a category 5 hurricane before it makes landfall.
Weakening will begin after the cyclone moves inland. An Air Force
Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is currently investigating Eta
and will provide more data tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is
estimated to be 927 mb (27.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall
moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area beginning tonight,
with tropical storm conditions beginning within the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning
area tonight, and hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane
Watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible
in the Tropical Storm Watch area by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday evening:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches
(75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall would lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding would be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2020

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has found that Eta has
explosively deepened into a strong category 4 hurricane with maximum
sustained winds of 130 kt and a minimum central pressure of 927 mb.
Eta has maintained a small 10-nmi-wide eye that is evident in
satellite imagery and on the San Andreas, Colombia, weather radar.
The radar data also suggest that concentric eyewalls may be forming,
which would be an indication of the onset of an eyewall replacement
cycle (ERC) and a capping of Eta's intensity and also an end to the
rapid intensification cycle of the past 36 hours. The initial
intensity of 130 kt kt is based on 700-mb flight-level winds of 137
kt and SFMR surface winds of 130 kt. Some additional strengthening
is expected, and Eta could become a category 5 hurricane before
landfall occurs. After landfall, Eta should quickly weaken while it
moves over the mountainous terrain of Central America.

Eta has slowed and is now moving southwestward or 245/06 kt. There
is no significant change to previous track forecast reasoning. A
mid-level ridge over the south-central United States should steer
Eta west-southwestward toward the coast of Nicaragua with the
hurricane making landfall early Tuesday. After landfall, Eta should
turn westward and then west-northwestward, and move across Central
America through Thursday. Eta's low-level circulation may not
survive its passage over the mountainous terrain of Central America,
but most of the global models continue to depict a cyclone or its
remnants moving over the northwestern Caribbean Sea by late-week and
into the weekend. Therefore, the new NHC track forecast continues to
show the system emerging over the northwestern Caribbean late in the
period, although this portion of the track forecast remains
uncertain.

Since Eta is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes
landfall in Central America, torrential rains and flooding will be
a major threat.

Key Messages:

1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves
onshore along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua tonight or early
Tuesday. Tropical storm force winds are beginning to reach the
coast within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua, and residents
there should have completed their preparations. A Tropical Storm
Warning is also in effect for the northeastern coast of Honduras.

2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with
destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes
landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 14 to 21 feet above
normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area.
Preparations to protect life and property should now be complete.

3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will likely
lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river
flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides
in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also
possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern
Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 14.1N 82.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 13.9N 83.3W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 13.9N 84.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/1200Z 13.9N 85.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/0000Z 14.3N 86.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/1200Z 14.8N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0000Z 15.4N 88.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/0000Z 16.8N 87.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/0000Z 17.9N 85.3W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#16 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 03, 2020 5:07 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Tue Nov 03 2020

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ETA VERY NEAR THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING,
AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 83.1W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward
to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours or so. Preparations to protect life and property should be
completed.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the eye of extremely dangerous Hurricane
Eta was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 83.1 West. Eta
is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through this morning. A
westward or west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by this
afternoon and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Eta is expected to make landfall along the coast of
Nicaragua within the Hurricane Warning area in a few hours. The
center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern
Nicaragua through Wednesday morning, and then move across central
portions of Honduras by Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is likely
before landfall. Weakening will begin after the center moves
inland later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km). Sustained winds of 56 mph (90 km/h) with gusts to 91
mph (146 km/h) were reported at Puerto Cabezas Airport, Nicaragua.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 923 mb (27.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall
moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area within the next
few hours, with tropical storm conditions already occuring in this
area. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical
Storm Warning area this morning, and hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area early today. Tropical Storm
conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area later
today.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday evening:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches
(75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch





Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Tue Nov 03 2020

Eta remains an extremely well-organized hurricane with a distinct
eye embedded within cloud tops colder than -80C. Based on
continuity from the earlier Hurricane Hunter observations and
Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, the current intensity
estimate remains 130 kt. Images from the San Andres radar show
at least one concentric eyewall, and this structure has likely
stopped the rapid deepening process. Nonetheless, Eta is an
extremely severe hurricane, capable of causing very high storm
surges and catastrophic damage. After the center moves inland
later today, rapid weakening is likely while the circulation
interacts with land. The official forecast is similar to the
Decay-SHIPS guidance, and shows the cyclone weakening to a
depression by tomorrow. It is not certain that the surface
circulation will survive after moving over Central America for the
next 3 days or so. The official forecast shows the system, perhaps
at first the upper-level remnant of Eta, emerging over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea in the latter part of the forecast
period. It should be noted that both the intensity and track at 4-5
days are highly uncertain at this time.

The hurricane has slowed down and is now moving a little south of
west or about 250/4 kt. This motion will take the center across
the coast in the Hurricane Warning area very soon. A weak ridge to
the north of Eta should cause the cyclone to move west to
west-northwest, over Central America, during the next few days. By
96-120 hours, a trough developing over the Gulf of Mexico should
cause the system to turn northward and northeastward but, as noted
earlier, this future track is quite uncertain.

Since Eta is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes
landfall in Central America, torrential rains and inland flooding
will be an extremely serious threat over the next few days.

Key Messages:

1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves
onshore along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua this morning.
Tropical-storm-force or greater winds are already occuring within
the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua. A Tropical Storm Warning
is also in effect for the northeastern coast of Honduras.

2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with
destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes
landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 14 to 21 feet above
normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area.
Preparations to protect life and property should now be complete.

3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the
Cayman Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 13.8N 83.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 13.8N 83.6W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/0600Z 13.8N 84.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/1800Z 14.0N 85.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/0600Z 14.5N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/1800Z 15.0N 88.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0600Z 15.7N 89.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/0600Z 17.0N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 08/0600Z 19.0N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#17 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 03, 2020 6:59 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
700 AM EST Tue Nov 03 2020

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ETA INCHING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING,
AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 83.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward
to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the eye of extremely dangerous Hurricane
Eta was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 83.1 West. Eta
is moving toward the west-southwest near 4 mph (6 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through this morning. A
westward or west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by this
afternoon and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Eta is expected to make landfall along the coast of
Nicaragua within the Hurricane Warning area this morning. The
center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern
Nicaragua through Wednesday morning, and then move across central
portions of Honduras by Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is likely before
landfall. Weakening will begin after the center moves inland later
today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km). Sustained winds of 69 mph (111 km/h) with gusts to
103 mph (166 km/h) were reported at Puerto Cabezas Airport,
Nicaragua.

The estimated minimum central pressure from Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance data is 936 mb (27.64 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall
moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area within the next
few hours, with tropical storm conditions already occuring in this
area. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical
Storm Warning area this morning, and hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area early today. Tropical Storm
conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area later
today.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday evening:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches
(75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#18 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:55 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Tue Nov 03 2020

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ETA CONTINUES TO INCH CLOSER TO
THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING,
AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 83.2W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Laguna de Perlas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Laguna
de Perlas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward
to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located
near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 83.2 West. Eta is moving toward
the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A westward or
west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin later today and
continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Eta is expected to make landfall along the coast of Nicaragua
within the Hurricane Warning area today. The center of Eta
is forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through
Wednesday morning, and then move across the central portions of
Honduras by Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is likely before
landfall. Weakening will begin after the center moves inland later
today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall
moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area within the next
few hours, with tropical storm conditions already occuring in this
area. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical
Storm Warning area this morning, and hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area. Tropical Storm conditions
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area later today.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Sunday morning:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

El Salvador and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm)

Jamaica, Southern Haiti, the Cayman Islands: An additional 3 to 5
inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown




Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Tue Nov 03 2020

Eta appears to have peaked in intensity overnight as an eyewall
replacement cycle occurred early this morning. Radar data from San
Andres revealed concentric eyewalls and the last images received
from that radar early this morning suggests that the inner-eye wall
had weakened. Around that time, the eye became cloud filled and
less distinct in infrared satellite imagery. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft that provided a couple of
center fixes this morning reported that the minimum pressure has
risen about 15 mb since last evening. The plane measured a peak
flight-level wind of 127 kt, and a few SFMR winds slightly higher,
but those winds were flagged as suspect. A dropwindsonde in the
southeastern eyewall measured a surface wind of 138 kt, but the
mean-layer average winds from the sonde supports a much lower
intensity, and the instantaneous surface wind from that instrument
is likely more representative of a wind gust. Based on the above
data, the initial intensity is set at 125 kt for this advisory.
Nonetheless, Eta is an extremely severe hurricane, capable of
causing very high storm surges and catastrophic damage. Once the
center of the hurricane moves onshore later today, rapid weakening
is expected. It is still not certain if the surface circulation
will survive its trek over Central America during the next several
days, but the official forecast continues to show the remnants of
Eta emerging over the northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week.

Eta has been meandering just offshore of the coast of Nicaragua this
morning, but the longer term motion is 255/4 kt. The hurricane
should turn westward very soon with the center crossing the coast
today. A ridge to the north of Eta should steer the cyclone on a
faster westward to west-northwestward heading over northern
Nicaragua and Honduras over the next couple of days. After 72 hours,
a developing trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico should cause
Eta or its remnants to turn northward and then northeastward. Given
that the system is expected to remain over land for at least a
couple of days, there continues to be significant uncertainty in the
long range portion of the track and intensity forecast.

Since Eta is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes
landfall in Central America, torrential rains and inland flooding
will be an extremely serious threat over the next few days.

Key Messages:

1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves
onshore along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua. Tropical-storm-
force or greater winds are already occuring within the Hurricane
Warning area in Nicaragua. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in
effect for the northeastern coast of Honduras.

2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with
destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes
landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 14 to 21 feet above
normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area.

3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the
Cayman Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 13.6N 83.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 13.5N 83.8W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/1200Z 13.7N 84.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/0000Z 14.2N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/1200Z 14.7N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/0000Z 15.2N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1200Z 15.7N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1200Z 17.5N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 08/1200Z 20.0N 82.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#19 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:01 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
100 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2020

...EYEWALL OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ETA MOVING ONSHORE
ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING,
AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 83.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Laguna
de Perlas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward
to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located
near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 83.3 West. Eta is moving toward
the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A faster westward or west-
northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and continue
through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is
expected to make landfall along the coast of Nicaragua within the
Hurricane Warning area this afternoon. The center of Eta is
forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through
Wednesday morning, and then move across the central portions of
Honduras by Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is likely before
landfall. Weakening will begin after the center moves inland later
today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall
moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area, and
hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area.
Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area later today.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Sunday morning:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

El Salvador and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm)

Jamaica, Southern Haiti, the Cayman Islands: An additional 3 to 5
inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#20 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:51 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2020

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ETA MAKING LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF
PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, AND FLASH
FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 83.5W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has discontinued the Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches that were in effect for that country.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Laguna
de Perlas.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Eta was located near
along the coast of Nicaragua near latitude 13.8 North, longitude
83.5 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h) A
faster westward or west-northwestward motion is expected through
early Thursday. A turn toward the north, and then north-northeast
is forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Eta is expected to move inland over northern Nicaragua
through Wednesday morning, and then move across the central portions
of Honduras through Thursday morning. The system is forecast to
emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night or Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening should occur as the center
moves inland tonight and Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall
moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area through
tonight.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Sunday morning:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

El Salvador and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm)

Jamaica, Southern Haiti, the Cayman Islands: An additional 3 to 5
inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown




Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2020

After meandering just offshore of the coast of northeastern
Nicaragua this morning, the eye of Eta began moving westward and is
currently making landfall along the coast of Nicaragua about 15 n
mi south of Puerto Cabezas. Visible satellite imagery has shown
that the eye of Eta became larger as the hurricane completed an
eyewall replacement. A blend of the earlier aircraft data and
recent subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates
yields an initial intensity of 120 kt. Eta remains an extremely
dangerous category 4 hurricane, and is likely producing a very high
storm surge and catastrophic damage. In addition, the slow-moving
system is likely to produce torrential rains and inland flooding
that will continue to be an extremely serious threat over the next
couple of days.

Once the eyewall is fully onshore, rapid weakening should begin,
and Eta is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by early
Wednesday, and become a tropical depression Wednesday night.
Although it appears unlikely that the surface circulation will
remain intact while Eta moves over Central America, most of the
global model guidance indicates that the low-level vorticity center
will emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea within 60-72 hours.
At that time, the system is forecast to interact with an
upper-level trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and
re-development later in the period appears likely with some
strengthening by days 4 and 5. Due the interaction with the
upper-level trough, the system is likely to have a more hybrid or
subtropical structure late in the period.

Eta appears to be moving westward at about 4 kt. A ridge to the
north of the hurricane should steer the system westward to west-
northwestward at a faster forward speed over the next couple of
days. By late in the week, Eta or its remnants should turn
northward, and then northeastward around the southeastern portion
of the aforementioned trough. Although the 12z GFS and ECMWF
models are in general agreement on the overall forecast scenario,
there are large differences in how fast Eta accelerates
northeastward. The NHC track forecast is near the HFIP corrected
consensus model which lies between the faster GFS and slower ECMWF
solutions. There is still significant spread among the various
global models and the ensembles, which results in a higher than
normal level of uncertainty regarding the details of the track and
intensity forecast later in the period.

Key Messages:

1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected during the next few hours
as Eta's eyewall moves onshore along the northeastern coast of
Nicaragua.

2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with
destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center has
crossed the coast. Water levels could reach as high as 14 to 21
feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane
warning area.

3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the
Cayman Islands.

4. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength as it moves
across portions of Cuba and approaches southern Florida this
weekend. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing,
magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall,
interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys should
monitor the progress of Eta through the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 13.8N 83.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 13.8N 84.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/1800Z 14.1N 85.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/0600Z 14.7N 87.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1800Z 15.4N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/0600Z 16.3N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1800Z 17.0N 87.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 07/1800Z 20.0N 83.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 24.0N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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