ATL: ETA - Advisories

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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#21 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:51 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2020

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE ETA CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLASH
FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 84.0W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WSW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Laguna
de Perlas.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located
near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 84.0 West. Eta is moving toward
the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster west-northwestward motion is
expected through early Thursday. A turn toward the north, and then
north-northeast is forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move farther
inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday morning, and then
move across the central portions of Honduras through Thursday
morning. The system is forecast to emerge over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea Thursday night or Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening will occur over the next couple
of days as the center of Eta moves farther inland over Nicaragua
and Honduras.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km). During the past couple of hours, a sustained wind of
49 mph (79 km/h) and a gust to 72 (116 km/h) were measured at the
Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Significant wind damage is expected within the Hurricane
Warning area and also across inland areas of northeastern
Nicaragua. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical
Storm Warning area through tonight.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Sunday morning:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated maximum totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in northeast
Nicaragua and eastern Honduras.

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

El Salvador and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm)

Jamaica, Southern Haiti, the Cayman Islands: An additional 3 to 5
inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 5 to 10 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart





Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2020

Satellite imagery and surface observation data indicate that
Hurricane Eta has moved farther inland over northeastern Nicaragua
this evening. Eta has maintained a well-defined CDO feature in
infrared satellite data, although passive microwave imagery is no
longer depicting an eye feature. A sustained wind of 93 kt (107 mph)
with a gust to 117 kt (135 mph) was reported at the Puerto Cabezas,
Nicaragua, airport around 03/2139 UTC while the eye of Eta was just
inland. The initial intensity of 90 kt is based on a standard decay
rate for inland tropical cyclones.

The initial motion estimate is 270/05 kt. The track forecast
reasoning is fairly straightforward for the next 72 h. A narrow
ridge to the north and northeast of the cyclone will cause Eta to
gradually turn toward the west-northwest over the next 12 h, and
maintain that motion through 48 h. In the 48-72 h period, Eta or its
remnants are expected to turn northward and then northeastward, and
emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea offshore the Yucatan
Peninsula by 72 h. Thereafter, the forecast becomes more complex due
to expected mid-latitude interaction with an upper-level trough/low
currently over the southwestern U.S. that will be digging
southeastward and amplifying over the Gulf of Mexico and as far
south as the Yucatan by 96 h. The trough is expected to lift out Eta
or its remnants northeastward across Cuba, then slow down and turn
northward toward the southern Florida peninsula by 120 h when the
cyclone will be interacting with an upper-level low over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Due to this complex mid-latitude
low/trough interaction, the track forecast at days 4 and 5 contains
some uncertainty. The new NHC track forecast is just a little to the
left of the previous advisory track through 72 hours, but not as far
west as the simple- and corrected-consensus models, and is very
similar to the previous advisory track at 96 and 120 hours.

Similar to the track forecast, the intensity forecast is also
straightforward through 72 h, which calls for Eta to rapidly weaken
for the next 48 h so using a standard decay rate for inland tropical
cyclones. By 72 h and beyond, the intensity forecast becomes a
little more complicated due to the aforementioned mid-latitude
trough interaction. The global models are still in fairly good
agreement with the development of an anticyclonically curved
upper-level jetstream across the northwestern Caribbean Sea, Cuba,
and the Bahamas by 96 h. There are some subtropical jet dynamics
already occurring across the northwestern Caribbean, which has
helped to generate widespread convection across the region today. As
the jetstream amplifies ahead of the vigorous upper-level trough,
significant upper-level divergence is expected to develop, which
will cause surface pressures to fall across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea. Those strong pressure falls will likely aid in the
redevelopment of Eta or generate a new tropical cyclone. Regardless
of the exact formation, the global and regional models are all in
good agreement on a tropical or subtropical cyclone developing and
moving across Cuba and toward Florida on days 4 and 5. The new
official intensity forecast is very similar to the previous
intensity forecast through 72 hours, and then is slightly higher
thereafter, but not as high as some of the intensity guidance like
the HCCA and ICON consensus models.

Key Messages:

1. Significant wind damage is expected along the coast of
northeastern Nicaragua and also inland overnight.

2. A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge, along with
destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua overnight. Water levels could reach as high as
5 to 10 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane
warning area.

3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the
Cayman Islands.

4. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength as it moves
across portions of Cuba and approaches southern Florida this
weekend. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing,
magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall,
interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys should
monitor the progress of Eta through the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 13.8N 84.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
12H 04/1200Z 13.9N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/0000Z 14.4N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/1200Z 15.3N 88.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0000Z 16.0N 89.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/1200Z 16.9N 88.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0000Z 17.9N 86.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 08/0000Z 21.1N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 24.3N 80.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#22 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:00 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2020

...ETA WINDS DECREASING BUT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 85.2W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NNE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Laguna de Perlas.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 85.2 West. Eta is moving
toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwestward motion
at a faster forward speed is expected later today through Thursday
morning. A turn toward the north, and then northeast is forecast
Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta
is expected to move over northern Nicaragua through early this
afternoon, and then move across the central portions of Honduras
through Thursday morning. The system is forecast to emerge over the
Gulf of Honduras or the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night
and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued weakening will occur while Eta moves over land during the
next couple of days, and Eta should become a tropical depression
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
for a few more hours, and near the center of Eta for several more
hours.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Sunday morning:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: An additional 10 to 20 inches
(255 to 510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in
northeast Nicaragua and eastern Honduras..

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 30 inches (760 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

El Salvador and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm)

The Cayman Islands: An additional 5 to 15 inches (125 to 380 mm),
isolated storm totals of 20 inches (510 mm).

Jamaica and Southern Haiti: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to
125 mm), isolated storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coasts of Nicaragua and
Honduras should gradually decrease today.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven




Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2020

Eta is weakening as it moves across northern Nicaragua, Most of the
inner core convection has weakened, and the strongest convection is
now in bands well removed from the center. There are no wind
observations available near the center of Eta at this time, so the
initial intensity is reduced to a uncertain 45 kt.

The initial motion is westward or 275/6. A mid-level ridge to the
north of the cyclone should steer it on a generally
west-northwestward track during the next 36 h or so. After that
time, a mid- to upper-level trough moving over the central and
eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to cause Eta or is remnants to
turn northward and then northeastward, Then, by 120 h, the cyclone
is likely to move northward on the eastern side of the trough. While
the track guidance is in reasonable agreement with this scenario,
there is some spread on when and where the various turns will occur,
and thus there is a fair amount of uncertainty about what parts of
Cuba and Florida the center may pass near or over. The new forecast
track is similar to the previous track and lies near the various
consensus models.

Eta will continue to weaken while it crosses Nicaragua and Honduras,
and it is expected to decay to a remnant low before it reaches the
Gulf of Honduras or the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Re-development
is expected once the center is over the water. However, interaction
with the aforementioned trough could result in a structure that is
more subtropical or hybrid, as indicated by the GFS/HWRF, than a
classical tropical cyclone, as suggested by the ECMWF. The new
intensity forecast will follow the previous forecast and go with a
gradual intensification in the expectation that the GFS scenario is
more likely to verify, However, the intensity forecast lies a
little below the intensity consensus.

Although it is weakening, Eta will continue to produce heavy
rainfall and flooding over portions of Central America.


Key Messages:

1. Through Sunday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the
Cayman Islands.

2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength before it
moves across portions of Cuba and approaches southern Florida this
weekend. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing,
magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall,
interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys should
monitor the progress of Eta through the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 13.9N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 05/0000Z 14.1N 86.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/1200Z 14.9N 87.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/0000Z 16.0N 88.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1200Z 17.0N 88.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 07/0000Z 18.0N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 19.6N 84.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 23.0N 81.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 25.0N 82.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#23 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:08 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
300 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020

...ETA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN A FEW HOURS AS IT
MOVES INTO HONDURAS...
...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 85.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NNE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Although the coastal warnings have been discontinued, the
governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings on
heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in
Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the progress of
this system. Interests in Belize, western Cuba, and the Cayman
Islands should also monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 85.7 West. Eta is moving
toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwestward motion
at a faster forward speed is expected this evening through Thursday
morning. A turn toward the north, and then northeast is forecast
Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta
is expected across Honduras later this afternoon through Thursday
morning. The system is forecast to emerge over the Gulf of Honduras
or the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Continued weakening will occur while Eta moves over land
during the next day or two, and Eta should become a tropical
depression during the next few hours. Re-intensification is
possible once the center of Eta reached the Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected near the center of
Eta for a few more hours.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Monday morning:

Portions of Honduras, Guatemala and Belize: An additional 15 to 30
inches (380 to 760 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches
(1000 mm) in eastern Honduras.

Portions of Nicaragua, El Salvador and Costa Rica: An additional 15
to 20 inches (380 to 510 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40
inches (1000 mm) in eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico: 5 to 15 inches (125 to 380 mm), isolated
maximum totals of 20 inches (510 mm).

Jamaica: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into western Cuba: 10 to 25 inches (255 to 635
mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, southern
Haiti, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coasts of Nicaragua and
Honduras should decrease this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven



TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
300 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020

Eta continues to weaken as it moves from Nicaragua into Honduras.
There is little convection left near the center, and the strongest
convection remains in bands well removed from the center. As
before, there are no wind observations available near the center
of Eta at this time, so the initial intensity is reduced to a
uncertain 35 kt.

The initial motion is westward or 275/6. A mid-level ridge to the
north of the cyclone should steer it on a generally west-
northwestward track during the next 24 h or so. After that time, a
mid- to upper-level trough moving over the central and eastern Gulf
of Mexico is expected to cause Eta or is remnants to turn northward
and then northeastward, Then, by 120 h, the cyclone is likely to
move northward or northwestward on the eastern side of the trough as
it cuts off into a closed low. The track guidance remains in
reasonable agreement with this scenario, However, there remains
some spread on when and where the various turns will occur, and
there has also been an eastward shift in the guidance envelope after
36 h. The new forecast track is shifted to the east of the previous
track after 36 h, and at 72 and 96 h it lies a little to the west of
the various consensus models,

Eta will continue to weaken while it crosses Honduras, and it is
expected to decay to a remnant low before it reaches the Gulf of
Honduras or the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Re-development is
expected once the center is over the water. However, interaction
with the aforementioned trough could result in a structure that is
more subtropical or hybrid, as suggested by the UKMET, than a
classical tropical cyclone, as suggested by the ECMWF. The new
intensity forecast will follow the previous forecast and go with a
gradual intensification that follows the general trend of the model
guidance. However, the intensity forecast again lies a little below
the intensity consensus.

Although it is weakening, Eta will continue to produce heavy
rainfall and flooding over portions of Central America.


Key Messages:

1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength before it
moves across portions of Cuba and approaches southern Florida this
weekend. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing,
magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall,
interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys should
monitor the progress of Eta through the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 13.9N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 05/0600Z 14.2N 86.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/1800Z 15.1N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 06/0600Z 16.5N 87.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1800Z 17.7N 86.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H 07/0600Z 18.8N 84.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 20.5N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 24.0N 80.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 25.5N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#24 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:41 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020

...ETA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 86.3W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue
warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and
interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the
progress of this system. Interests in Belize, western Cuba, and
the Cayman Islands should also monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta
was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 86.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).
A northwestward motion is expected later tonight through Thursday
morning. A turn toward the north, and then the northeast is forecast
to occur Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Eta is expected to move across Honduras through Thursday
afternoon, and emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by Thursday night.
Eta is forecast to approach the Cayman Islands and western or
central Cuba this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is expected while Eta remains over land, and
Eta will likely degenerate to a remnant low or trough of low
pressure on Thursday. However, re-intensification is forecast once
the center of Eta moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Monday morning:

Portions of Honduras, Guatemala and Belize: An additional 15 to 30
inches (380 to 760 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches
(1000 mm) in eastern Honduras.

Portions of Nicaragua, El Salvador and Costa Rica: An additional 15
to 20 inches (380 to 510 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40
inches (1000 mm) in eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico: 5 to 15 inches (125 to 380 mm), isolated
maximum totals of 20 inches (510 mm).

Jamaica: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into western Cuba: 10 to 25 inches (255 to 635
mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, southern
Haiti, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi




Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020

The rugged terrain of Central America is taking a toll on Eta. The
low-level circulation is losing definition, and deep convection is
well removed from the center. Eta was downgraded to a 30-kt
tropical depression a few hours ago, and the initial intensity is
held at that value for this advisory. The strongest winds are
likely occurring offshore over the Gulf of Honduras, as noted in
earlier ASCAT scatterometer surface wind data.

Eta, or its remnant low, is forecast to move west-northwestward to
northwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours, taking the cyclone
across portions of Honduras during that time. In 24 to 36 hours, a
turn to the north and then northeast is forecast as Eta feels some
influence from a mid- to upper level trough moving over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. As this trough slides southeastward
across the Gulf, it should steer Eta northeastward at a faster
forward speed toward Cuba, likely approaching that country late
Saturday or Sunday. After that time, the models show Eta rotating
around the north side of the trough (or cut-off low) in the
vicinity of south Florida and the Florida Keys late this weekend and
early next week. There is still a lot of spread in the model tracks
at the 96- and 120-hour time periods, which is not surprising given
the expected complex steering pattern. The NHC track forecast is
adjusted a little to the east of the previous one to come into
better agreement with the latest models, but confidence in the
details of the extended track forecast is low.

Continued weakening is expected while Eta remains inland over the
rugged terrain of Central America, and the cyclone will likely
degenerate into a remnant low or trough of low pressure on Thursday.
Whatever is left of Eta, and the broad gyre that it is embedded
within, will move offshore of Belize over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea by Thursday night or Friday. The rate of intensification over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea will likely be gradual because of the
mixed environmental conditions. On one hand, Eta will be moving
over warm water and in a region of upper-level diffluence, which
should support convective growth and strengthening. Conversely,
there will also be an increase in wind shear and the cyclone is
likely to have a broad structure, which should prevent rapid
intensification. The net result will likely be slow but steady
strengthening, and Eta is forecast to be a strong tropical storm
when it is near south Florida. The models are in fair agreement on
Eta's future intensity, and this forecast is just a little higher
than the previous one.

Key Messages:

1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week. Although the details of
the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is an
increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of
Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys this weekend and early
next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 14.2N 86.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 05/1200Z 15.0N 87.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/0000Z 16.1N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1200Z 17.2N 86.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0000Z 18.2N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H 07/1200Z 19.3N 83.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 20.4N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 23.3N 79.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 24.7N 81.4W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#25 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:12 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
300 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020

...ETA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 87.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue
warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and
interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the
progress of this system. Interests in Belize, western Cuba, and
the Cayman Islands should also monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the poorly-defined center of Tropical
Depression Eta was estimated near latitude 14.5 North, longitude
87.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8
mph (13 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is
expected today. A turn toward the north, and then the northeast is
forecast to occur tonight and Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Eta is expected to move across Honduras through this
afternoon, and emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by tonight. Eta is
forecast to approach the Cayman Islands and western or central Cuba
this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Eta will likely degenerate to a remnant low or trough of low
pressure this morning. However, re-intensification is forecast
once the center of Eta moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Tuesday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 10 to 15 inches (255 to
380 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in
eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated
maximum totals of 20 inches (510 mm).

Jamaica: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to
510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands
and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica
and southeast Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch





Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
300 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020

Eta has become very disorganized due to its interaction with the
land mass of Central America, and may no longer have a surface
circulation. Based on a few surface observations, the maximum winds
are estimated to be around 25 kt over the water to the north of
Honduras. Eta is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical low very
soon, if it hasn't done so already. Since the low is predicted to
move into the northwestern Caribbean Sea by tomorrow night, some
restrengthening is forecast to begin by the weekend. However the
expected broad nature of the cyclone and stronger vertical shear are
likely to limit strengthening over the next several days. The
official intensity forecast is similar to the latest model
consensus.

The center is extremely difficult to locate at this time, but based
on continuity the initial motion is estimated to be 300/7 kt. Eta,
or its post-tropical remnant low/trough, should continue to move
over land today, and then turn northward tonight while moving along
the eastern side of a broader gyre. This will take the system into
the Gulf of Honduras and over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on
Friday. A negatively-tilted 500-mb trough/low developing over the
Gulf of Mexico should induce a generally northeastward motion for
the next 2-3 days and take the cyclone across portions of Cuba in
3-4 days. Thereafter, the system is forecast to rotate cyclonically
around the eastern side of the 500 mb low and turn northwestward to
westward by the end of the forecast period. The official forecast
is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions, but leans toward
the latter model. This track could take the system near or over
portions of extreme southern Florida by late this weekend or early
next week, but there is low confidence in the forecast, especially
at 3-5 days.


Key Messages:

1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week. Although the details of
the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is an
increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of
Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys this weekend and early
next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 14.5N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 15.0N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/0600Z 16.2N 87.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1800Z 17.4N 86.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 07/0600Z 18.5N 84.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 19.6N 82.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 21.0N 81.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 23.5N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 24.5N 81.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#26 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 05, 2020 9:50 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020

...ETA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 87.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SW OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue
warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and
interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the
progress of this system. Interests in Belize, western Cuba, and
the Cayman Islands should also monitor the progress of this system,
as Tropical Storm watches may be required later today or tonight
for portions of these areas.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was
located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 87.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward
the north, and then the northeast is forecast to occur tonight and
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to
move across northwestern Honduras through this afternoon, and
emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by tonight. Eta is forecast to
approach the Cayman Islands and western or central Cuba this
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is likely through tonight. After that,
Eta is forecast to intensify over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Tuesday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 10 to 15 inches (255 to
380 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in
eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated
maximum totals of 20 inches (510 mm).

Jamaica: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to
510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands
and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica
and southeast Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven




Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020

Eta remains disorganized this morning, as visible imagery suggests
that the circulation has become elongated and that multiple
vorticity centers may be present inside the larger cyclonic
envelope. The center position for this advisory, which is over
northwestern Honduras, is closer to convection in the northwestern
semicircle than was the case 6 h ago, so the cyclone is being
maintained as a tropical depression at this time.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/8 kt. Eta or its
remnants should move generally northwestward today, then turn
northward tonight. From 24-72 h, the system should move
northeastward in response to a developing mid- to upper-level
trough over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. From 72-120 h,
the trough is forecast to become a closed mid- to upper-level low
in the vicinity of western Cuba, with the center of Eta likely to
turn west-northwestward on the north side of the low. While the
global models are in good agreement with this synoptic evolution,
there is a significant spread in the forecast tracks between the
fastest and farthest east GFS and the slowest and farthest west
UKMET. The new forecast track lies between these extremes in best
overall agreement with the ECMWF and Canadian models, and it calls
for the system to be near western Cuba and the Cayman Islands in
60-72 h, and then be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by the
end of the forecast period.

Little change in strength is expected before the center moves back
over the Caribbean, but there is still a chance that Eta could
degenerate to a remnant low pressure area later today if the
convection does not persist. Intensification is expected over the
warm waters of the Caribbean Sea from 24-72 h, although this may be
slowed by southwesterly shear caused by the aforementioned trough.
As the trough cuts off near or over Eta between 72-120 h, the
global models suggest that the system could strengthen while
acquiring at least some subtropical or hybrid characteristics due
to upper-level cold air entrainment. The new intensity forecast is
little changed from the previous forecast, and in the latter part of
the forecast period it lies near the intensity consensus. It should
be noted that while Eta regaining hurricane strength cannot be ruled
out, there is little support for that in the current guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week. Although the details of
the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is an
increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of
the Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys
this weekend and early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 15.1N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 06/0000Z 15.7N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/1200Z 16.8N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 07/0000Z 17.8N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 19.0N 84.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 20.1N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 21.3N 81.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 23.0N 80.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 24.0N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#27 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:55 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
300 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2020

...ETA STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
...SHOULD MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT
6-12 HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 87.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of the Cayman islands has issued a
Tropical Storm Watch for the Cayman Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue
warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and
interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the
progress of this system. Interests in Belize and western Cuba
should also monitor the progress of this system, as Tropical Storm
Watches may be required for portions of western Cuba later tonight
or on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 87.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph
(13 km/h), and a turn toward the north is expected during the next
several hours. A turn toward the northeast is expected on Friday,
with this motion continuing through Saturday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Eta will emerge over the Caribbean
Sea tonight and approach the Cayman Islands Saturday and Saturday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and Eta is expected to re-gain tropical
storm strength on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Tuesday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to
255 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in
eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to
125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to
510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands
and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica
and southeast Mexico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands
Saturday or Saturday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
300 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2020

The low-level circulation of Eta has become disorganized to the
point that the system more resembles a remnant low than a tropical
cyclone. However, the system continues to produce convection in an
area just north and northwest of the estimated center position, as
well as in a cluster well to the northeast. Based on this, and the
expectation that the system will start re-developing during the next
several hours as it moves back over water, Eta is maintained as a
tropical depression for this advisory. The initial intensity is
increased to 30 kt based on scatterometer data, with those winds
occuring well to the northeast of the center.

The center appears to be just south of the northwestern coast of
Honduras, and the initial motion is an uncertain 330/7. During the
next 24 h, Eta should recurve northeastward in southwesterly flow
between a ridge over the central Caribbean and a developing mid- to
upper-level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico. This motion
should persist through about 72 h. After that, the trough is
forecast to become a closed low in the vicinity of western Cuba,
with Eta turning to the west-northwest as it interacts or merges
with the low. While the models are in good agreement with the
synoptic pattern, they are in poor agreement on the details of the
track. The forecast tracks show possible landfalls in Cuba
anywhere between 77W-83W, and after the turn some of the tracks are
as far north as southern Florida while other stay over Cuba. In
addition, there is a significant speed difference between the
faster GFS/HWRF/HMON and the slower Canadian/ECMWF/UKMET. The
low-confidence official forecast compromises between these various
extremes and is not changed much from the previous forecast.

Little change in strength is expected during the next 12 h or so as
Eta starts to re-organized over water. After that, gradual
strengthening is expected until the system reaches Cuba in about
72 h, with the main limiting factor being increasing southwesterly
shear during that time. From 72-120 h, there is a possibility that
Eta will take on subtropical or hybrid characteristics as it
interacts with the developing upper-level low. The intensity
forecast will be held at 50 kt during that time due to this
interaction. The new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from
the previous forecast. However, it lies below the bulk of the
intensity guidance for the first 60 h and above the bulk of the
guidance from 72-120 h.

The new forecast track, intensity, and wind radii require a
Tropical Storm Watch for the Cayman Islands at this time. A
Tropical Storm Watch will likely be required for portions of Cuba
later tonight or on Friday.

Key Messages:

1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea in a day or so. Although the details of
the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is an
increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of the
Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys this
weekend and early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 15.7N 87.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 06/0600Z 16.4N 87.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 06/1800Z 18.1N 86.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 19.1N 84.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 20.1N 83.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 21.3N 81.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 22.4N 80.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 09/1800Z 23.5N 82.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 10/1800Z 24.5N 84.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#28 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 05, 2020 9:55 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2020

...ETA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY...
...STILL CAUSING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 87.8W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NW OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings
on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in
those areas should continue to monitor the depression.

Interests in Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, Florida Keys and
southern Florida should monitor the progress of this system as
Tropical Storm Watches could be required for some of these areas on
Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 87.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast is expected on Friday, with this motion
continuing through early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center
of Eta will be over the western Caribbean Sea through Friday,
approach the Cayman Islands Saturday and Saturday night, and be near
Cuba on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again on Friday, with
further strengthening possible through early Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Tuesday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to
255 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in
eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to
125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to
510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands
and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica
and southeast Mexico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands
Saturday or Saturday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Blake




Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2020

Eta has not become any better organized during the past several
hours, and a specific center is hard to locate. It is estimated
that the center is near a growing area of deep convection located
east of the Belize. While it is possible the system has degenerated
into a broad low or trough, there isn't enough evidence to break
continuity, so Eta remains a 30-kt tropical depression on this
advisory. Scatterometer data will probably come in overnight to
provide a better look at the low-level circulation.

The initial motion is an uncertain 360/7 kt. Eta should move
northeastward on Friday around a developing mid- to upper-level
trough over the Gulf of Mexico, then turn northward on Sunday and
west-northwestward early next week as the trough cuts off into a
closed low. The details of this sinuous path, however, are pretty
fuzzy and small differences in the tropical cyclone position could
lead to large errors down the line. The most notable change tonight
is that the GFS-based guidance (including HWRF and HMON) have
generally shifted northward and faster. The new forecast is moved
eastward near Cuba, and then northward near the Florida Keys in
response to this guidance and the 18Z ECMWF. It should be stressed
this is a fairly uncertain forecast due to the strong trough
interaction.

Eta should begin to strengthen on Friday due to the low-level
circulation forecast to become better defined in a fairly conducive
environment. While vertical wind shear could increase this weekend,
it is expected that upper-level divergence and trough dynamics will
overwhelm the negative factors and cause continued intensification
until the system reaches Cuba. The new forecast is raised from the
previous one, but still lies below the NOAA corrected-consensus
model HCCA. There isn't a lot of agreement on the intensity after
Cuba, however, and the forecast hinges on how tropical it will
remain after the trough interaction. The new forecast flattens out
the intensity near Florida as a compromise between the various
solutions, but I don't have much confidence in the forecast at that
range.

Key Messages:

1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Although the details of
the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is an
increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of the
Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys and the
northwestern Bahamas this weekend and early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 16.6N 87.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 17.5N 87.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 18.8N 85.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 19.7N 83.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 20.8N 81.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 22.6N 79.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/0000Z 24.2N 80.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 10/0000Z 25.0N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 25.5N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#29 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 06, 2020 5:10 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
300 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020

...ETA STILL CAUSING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 87.4W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NNW OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings
for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in
those areas should continue to monitor the depression.

Interests in Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, Florida Keys and
southern Florida should monitor the progress of this system as
Tropical Storm Watches could be required for some of these areas
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 87.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast is expected later today, with this motion
continuing through early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center
of Eta will move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea today,
approach the Cayman Islands Saturday, and be near Cuba Saturday
night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again later today,
with further strengthening likely through early Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Wednesday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to
255 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in
eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to
125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to
510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm).

The Bahamas and Southern Florida, including the Keys: 5 to 10
inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380
mm).

This rainfall will continue catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands
and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica
and southeast Mexico. Flash flooding is possible across the Bahamas
and Southern Florida.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands
Saturday or Saturday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward
and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and the southern coast of
Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi




Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
300 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020

Although satellite images and surface observations suggest that the
circulation of Eta is elongated, deep convection has been increasing
near and over the center during the past several hours.
Unfortunately, the ASCAT scatterometer missed the region where Eta
is located, so there has not been much additional data to analyze
the structure and intensity of the cyclone. The initial wind speed
is held at 30 kt based on a 2.0/30 kt Dvorak classification from
TAFB. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to
investigate Eta later today, and that data will be helpful in
analyzing the cyclone.

The depression is moving northward at 7 kt. Eta is forecast to turn
northeastward later today, and accelerate slightly in that direction
through Saturday in response to a mid- to upper-level trough that is
expected to slide southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico. This
motion should take Eta to the west of the Cayman Islands on Saturday
and then across Cuba Saturday night or Sunday. Around the time Eta
is forecast to be near Cuba, the models show the storm slowing down
and turning northwestward or westward as the trough cuts off, and
Eta pivots around the north side of that cut off low. This change
in the storm motion should bring Eta near or over the Florida Keys
and south Florida late in the weekend and early next week. The
details in the location and timing of where Eta and the mid- to
upper-level low interact will be very important to the exact track
of Eta for south Florida and the Florida Keys. The new track
forecast is a touch to the north of the previous one when Eta is
expected to be near Florida, to be in better agreement with the
latest consensus aids.

The cyclone is currently over warm water, in a moist environment,
and will be moving into a region of upper-level diffluence as it
tracks across the northwestern Caribbean Sea. These conditions
should allow for thunderstorms to organize near the center and for
the cyclone to gradually intensify during the next couple of days.
However, rapid intensification seems unlikely given the broad
structure of Eta. The models show an increase in shear and some
dry air entraining into the circulation around the time it nears
Cuba this weekend, which in combination with land interaction could
limit additional strengthening by then. The intensity forecast for
the 72-120 hour period is more complicated as it will depend on the
trough interaction mentioned above. Most of the intensity models
show Eta holding steady in strength after its passage over Cuba,
and the NHC forecast does the same.

The wind field of Eta is expected to increase in size during the
next few days, and the cyclone will likely produce a large area of
tropical-storm-force winds on its north side when it is near Cuba,
the Florida Keys, and southern Florida.


Key Messages:

1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea later today. Although the details of
the future track and intensity of Eta are still uncertain, there is
an increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of
the Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys and
the northwestern Bahamas this weekend and early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 17.3N 87.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 18.0N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 19.1N 84.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 20.2N 82.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 21.8N 80.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 23.5N 79.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 24.6N 80.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 25.1N 83.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 25.9N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#30 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 06, 2020 10:03 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA...
...ETA STILL CAUSING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 87.0W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of the Cayman Islands has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for the Cayman Islands.

The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Pinar
del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana,
Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings
for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in
those areas should continue to monitor the depression.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida
Keys and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this
system as Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required for
some of these areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 87.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph
(11 km/h). A turn toward the northeast and a faster forward speed
are expected later today, with this motion continuing through early
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move across
the northwestern Caribbean Sea today, approach the Cayman Islands
Saturday, and be near central or western Cuba Saturday night and
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again later today,
with further strengthening likely through early Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Wednesday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to
255 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in
eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to
125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to
510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm).

The Bahamas and Southern Florida, including the Keys: 5 to 10
inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches
(380 mm).

This rainfall will continue catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands
and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica
and southeast Mexico. Flash and urban flooding is possible across
the Bahamas and Southern Florida.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in Cuba Saturday night and Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward
and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and the southern coast of
Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven





Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020

Satellite imagery indicates that Eta is producing organized
convection in a large band over its northern and eastern
quadrants, with the center located just off the coast of Belize
near the western end of the band. These data, along with surface
observations, also show that the circulation is elongated. The
initial intensity remains 30 kt in agreement with a satellite
intensity estimate from TAFB. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Eta this afternoon,
and a NOAA flight is scheduled for this evening.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 025/6 kt. A developing
mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to
steer Eta northeastward for the next 48 h or so with an increase in
forward speed. Between 48-72 h, the trough is forecast to become a
closed low near south Florida and western Cuba, with Eta expected
to turn northwestward around and into the low. After 72 h, the
merged system is likely to move slowly west-northwestward. While
the guidance is in good agreement on the synoptic evolution, there
are a lot of differences in the track forecast details in terms of
both the heading and the forward speed, with the GFS-based guidance
tending to be to the east and north of the UKMET/ECMWF/Canadian.
Overall, the consensus models have shifted a little to the east and
north since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is also
nudged in those directions.

Eta will move over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean
during the next 48 h or so, and the upper-level divergence is
forecast to be quite strong. This should allow some strengthening,
although this is likely to be slowed by 20-30 kt of southwesterly
vertical wind shear. The intensity forecast for this part of the
cyclone's life is similar to the previous forecast and lies a bit
below the bulk of the intensity guidance. Between 48-72 h , Eta may
take on at least some subtropical cyclone characteristics as it
merges with the mid- to upper-level low. During this process, some
of the guidance suggests the possibility that a tight inner wind
core may develop. There is a chance that during this time that Eta
could regain hurricane strength, although this would be an intensity
above the current guidance. After 72 h, dry air entrainment is
expected to cause the cyclone to weaken.

The wind field of Eta is expected to increase in size during the
next few days, and the cyclone will likely produce a large area of
tropical-storm-force winds on its north side when it is near Cuba,
the Florida Keys, and southern Florida.

The new forecast track requires a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Cayman Islands at this time, and a Tropical Storm Watch for
portions of Cuba. Watches may be required for portions of south
Florida and the Florida Keys later today or tonight.


Key Messages:

1. Rainfall associated with Eta will continue to result in
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and
river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Flash
flooding and urban flooding is also possible for Jamaica and
southeast Mexico.

2. This weekend Eta is expected to bring tropical storm conditions
to portions of the Cayman Islands, where a Tropical Storm Warning is
in effect. Tropical storm conditions possible in portions of western
and central Cuba, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.

3. There is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and flash and
urban flooding due to heavy rainfall in portions of southern
Florida, the Florida Keys and portions of the Bahamas this weekend
and early next week. Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will likely
be issued later today or tonight for a portion of this area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 17.8N 87.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 18.6N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 19.7N 83.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 21.0N 81.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 22.7N 79.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/0000Z 24.1N 80.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 09/1200Z 25.0N 81.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 25.5N 84.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 26.5N 85.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#31 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 06, 2020 3:59 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
300 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE CENTER OF
ETA FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 86.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cayman Islands
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings
for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in
those areas should continue to monitor the depression.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida
Keys, and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this
system as Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required for
some of these areas tonight or on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 86.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A
northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected trough
early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move
across the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday, approach
the Cayman Islands Saturday, and be near central or western Cuba
Saturday night and Sunday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm
again this tonight, with further strengthening likely through
early Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Wednesday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125
mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern
Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to
125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400
mm), isolated maximum totals of 25 inches (650 mm).

The Bahamas and Southern Florida, including the Keys: 5 to 10
inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380
mm).

The threat of life-threatening flooding will continue across
portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and
river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Flash
flooding and urban flooding is also possible for Jamaica, southeast
Mexico, the Bahamas and Southern Florida.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Cuba near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the warning area in Cuba Saturday night and Sunday, and
they are possible in the watch area in Cuba Saturday night and
Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward
and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and the southern coast of
Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
300 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the center of Eta is elongated east-to-west with
multiple vorticity centers present. The central pressure is near
1002 mb, and the maximum flight-level winds were 30-35 kt at 1500
ft. There were a few spot reports of 35-45 kt winds from the
Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer, but these were in areas of
heavy rain and their reliability is suspect. Based on these data,
the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt.

The aircraft data shows that the center is farther south than
previously thought, and the initial motion is an uncertain 040/6 kt.
There is no change to the previous track forecast philosophy. A
developing mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico is
expected to steer Eta northeastward for the next 48 h or so with an
increase in forward speed. Between 48-72 h, the trough is forecast
to become a closed low near south Florida and western Cuba, causing
Eta to turn northwestward around and into the low. After 72 h, the
merged system is likely to move slowly westward to northwestward.
While the guidance is in good agreement on the synoptic evolution,
there remain differences in the track forecast details in terms of
both the heading and the forward speed, with the GFS-based guidance
tending to be to the east and north of the UKMET/ECMWF/Canadian. In
addition, the HWRF/HMON/Canadian are faster than the other guidance.
The new forecast track overall is a little slower than the previous
track, and due to the initial position the first 36 h have been
shifted southward.

Eta will move over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean
during the next 48 h or so, and the upper-level divergence is
forecast to be quite strong. This should allow some strengthening,
although this is likely to be slowed by 20-30 kt of southwesterly
vertical wind shear. The intensity forecast for this part of the
cyclone's life is again similar to the previous forecast and lies
near the bulk of the intensity guidance. Between 48-72 h , Eta may
take on at least some subtropical cyclone characteristics as it
merges with the mid- to upper-level low. The HWRF and HMON models
still suggest the possibility that a tight inner wind core may
develop, however, the guidance has trended weaker since this
morning, and the new intensity forecast is above the bulk of the
guidance. After 72 h, dry air entrainment is expected to cause the
cyclone to weaken.

The wind field of Eta is expected to increase in size during the
next few days, and the cyclone will likely produce a large area of
tropical-storm-force winds on its north side when it is near Cuba,
the Florida Keys, and southern Florida.

The new forecast track requires a Tropical Storm Warning for
portions of Cuba at this time. Watches may be required for
portions of south Florida and the Florida Keys tonight.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall is diminishing across portions of Central America,
although the threat of life-threatening flooding may continue, along
with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Heavy rainfall from Eta
will move into the Cayman islands and portions of Cuba, resulting in
significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding.
Flash flooding and urban flooding is also possible for Jamaica and
southeast Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected this weekend in portions
of the Cayman Islands and Cuba, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect.

3. There is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and flash and
urban flooding due to heavy rainfall in portions of southern
Florida, the Florida Keys, and portions of the Bahamas this weekend
and early next week. Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will likely
be issued for a portion of this area tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 17.3N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 18.2N 84.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 19.4N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 20.8N 80.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 22.5N 80.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/0600Z 24.2N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 09/1800Z 24.9N 81.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 25.0N 84.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 26.5N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#32 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:57 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020

...ETA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS,
SOUTHERN FLORIDA, AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 85.2W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of South
Florida from Jupiter Inlet southward on the east coast and from
Bonita Beach southward on the west coast, including Lake Okeechobee.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys from
Ocean Reef southward to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay.

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cayman Islands
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth.
* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
Beach
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Keys
* Florida Bay
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings
for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in
those areas should continue to monitor the depression.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm
Watches could be required for some of these areas on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 85.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected through
early Sunday. A turn toward the north and northwest are expected
Sunday afternoon. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will
move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight, approach the
Cayman Islands Saturday, be near central Cuba Saturday night and
Sunday, and approach the Florida Keys or south Florida late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again overnight, with
further strengthening likely through Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Wednesday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125
mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern
Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to
125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400
mm), isolated maximum totals of 25 inches (650 mm).

The Bahamas and Southern Florida, including the Keys: 5 to 10
inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380
mm).

The threat of life-threatening flooding will continue across
portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain. Significant, life-threatening flash and river
flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for
the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Bahamas, and
southern Florida.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Cuba near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Marco Island, FL to North Miami Beach, FL including Biscayne
Bay...2-3 ft
Florida Keys...2-3 ft
North Miami Beach, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
Saturday afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the warning area in Cuba Saturday night and Sunday, and
they are possible in the watch area in Cuba Saturday night and
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the northwestern
Bahamas, south Florida, and the Florida Keys within the watch area
beginning Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward
and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the southern coast of
Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Brown




Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft that flew a tail-Doppler radar
mission earlier this evening reported that Eta's circulation
remained elongated, and that there had not been any significant
increase in winds since this afternoon. There has been some increase
in deep convection near and to the east of the estimated center, but
there has been little overall change in organization. Therefore, the
initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory.

Eta is expected to strengthen over the next 24 to 48 hours while it
moves over warm waters and within an area of strong upper-level
divergence to the southeast of a mid- to upper-level trough over the
Gulf of Mexico. Eta's structure is likely to take on
characteristics of a subtropical cyclone as it merges with the
cutoff low late Sunday and Monday. As this occurs, Eta's wind field
is expected to increase in size. By 72 hours and beyond, dry air
entrainment is likely to cause some weakening. The new NHC intensity
forecast is close to the previous one.

Eta is moving toward northeastward at a faster forward speed of
around 10 kt. An additional increase in forward speed should occur
overnight as Eta moves northeastward around the southeastern portion
of a developing mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico.
This feature should continue to steer Eta northeastward during the
next 24 hours, but after that time the trough is forecast to
cut-off, with Eta turning northward, and then northwestward around
and into the mid- to upper-level closed low. The merged system is
likely to move northwestward or northward later in the period. The
latest runs of the dynamical models have trended toward a more
northward track on Sunday and Monday with some of them showing a
track near or over the southern portion of the Florida peninsula in
48 to 60 hours. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted
slightly northward during that time and lies between the TVCA
multi-model consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus aid. Since
Eta's wind field is forecast to expand when it moves north of Cuba,
tropical-storm-force winds are expected to cover a large area to the
north and northeast of the center regardless of the exact track of
the center.

The new forecast track requires a Tropical Storm Watch for the
northwestern Bahamas, the southern Florida peninsula, and the
Florida Keys. Additional watches for the Florida peninsula may be
required overnight or on Saturday morning.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall is diminishing across portions of Central America,
although the threat of life-threatening flooding may continue, along
with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Heavy rainfall from Eta
will move into the Cayman islands and portions of Cuba, resulting in
significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in
Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman
Islands, Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Bahamas and Southern
Florida.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected this weekend in portions
of the Cayman Islands and Cuba, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect.

3. There is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and flash and
urban flooding due to heavy rainfall in portions of southern
Florida, the Florida Keys, and portions of the Bahamas this weekend
and early next week. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for
portions of these areas and additional watches may be required
overnight or on Saturday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 18.0N 85.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 19.0N 83.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 20.3N 81.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 21.9N 79.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/0000Z 24.0N 79.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 09/1200Z 25.0N 81.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 25.2N 82.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 26.0N 84.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 27.0N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#33 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 07, 2020 4:37 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020

...ETA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS,
SOUTHERN FLORIDA, AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 85.2W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of South
Florida from Jupiter Inlet southward on the east coast and from
Bonita Beach southward on the west coast, including Lake Okeechobee.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys from
Ocean Reef southward to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay.

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cayman Islands
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth.
* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
Beach
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Keys
* Florida Bay
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings
for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in
those areas should continue to monitor the depression.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm
Watches could be required for some of these areas on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 85.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected through
early Sunday. A turn toward the north and northwest are expected
Sunday afternoon. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will
move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight, approach the
Cayman Islands Saturday, be near central Cuba Saturday night and
Sunday, and approach the Florida Keys or south Florida late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again overnight, with
further strengthening likely through Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Wednesday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125
mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern
Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to
125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400
mm), isolated maximum totals of 25 inches (650 mm).

The Bahamas and Southern Florida, including the Keys: 5 to 10
inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380
mm).

The threat of life-threatening flooding will continue across
portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain. Significant, life-threatening flash and river
flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for
the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Bahamas, and
southern Florida.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Cuba near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Marco Island, FL to North Miami Beach, FL including Biscayne
Bay...2-3 ft
Florida Keys...2-3 ft
North Miami Beach, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
Saturday afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the warning area in Cuba Saturday night and Sunday, and
they are possible in the watch area in Cuba Saturday night and
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the northwestern
Bahamas, south Florida, and the Florida Keys within the watch area
beginning Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward
and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the southern coast of
Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Brown




Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Sat Nov 07 2020

Satellite images show a large area of deep convection associated
with Eta, but there is not much organization to the thunderstorm
activity. An ASCAT-A pass from several hours ago showed that the
circulation of Eta has become a little better defined, and the
center was located a fair distance to the west-southwest of what was
previously analyzed. The pass also showed that Eta has not
strengthened to a tropical storm yet, with the maximum winds in the
25-30 kt range. Based on that data, and a blend of the latest
Dvorak classifications, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt.

After adjusting the initial position, the estimated motion is a
little slower to the east-northeast than before, 060/9 kt. It
should be noted that some of the models show the center re-forming
to the northeast later today, which is possible given the
depression's convective asymmetry. Regardless of these details,
the large scale track forecast reasoning is unchanged. A continued
east-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the next
day or two as Eta moves in the flow on the east side of a mid- to
upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. This motion should take
Eta near or to the west of the Cayman Islands later today and over
central Cuba tonight and Sunday. After that time, the mid- to
upper-level low is expected to cut off over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico or the Florida Straits. As a result, Eta will pivot around
the low, which should cause a slow down and a turn to the north and
then the northwest toward the Florida Keys and south Florida Sunday
night and Monday. As Eta merges with the upper low, a slower motion
to the northwest or north is forecast across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico by the middle of next week. The NHC track forecast lies
between the GFS and ECMWF models, and is quite similar to the
previous one.

Eta is expected to gradually strengthen on its approach to Cuba as
it remains over warm waters and in an region of upper-level
diffluence. However, by the time Eta reaches Cuba, the models show
an increase in southwesterly wind shear and drier air being drawn
into the circulation. These factors should cause Eta to level off
in strength, and likely become asymmetric. When Eta interacts and
merges with the upper low, it will likely take on a subtropical
appearance and develop a large wind field near southern Florida.
The storm is forecast to slowly weaken when it passes to the west
of Florida as it moves in a drier environment. The NHC intensity
forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies near the
high end of the model guidance.

Based on the new forecast, the government of the Bahamas has issued
a Tropical Storm Warning for the northwestern Bahamas. In
addition, the Tropical Storm Watch along the east coast of Florida
has been extended northward.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall is diminishing across portions of Central America,
although the threat of life-threatening flooding may continue, along
with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Heavy rainfall from Eta
will continue across the Cayman Islands and portions of Cuba,
resulting in significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river
flooding in Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for
the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected later today and Sunday in
portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and the northwestern
Bahamas, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Florida Keys and
portions of south and central Florida beginning late Sunday, where
a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. Tropical Storm Warnings could
be required for these areas later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 18.3N 84.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 19.3N 82.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 20.7N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 22.6N 80.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/0600Z 23.8N 80.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 09/1800Z 24.9N 81.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 25.5N 83.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 26.0N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 27.3N 85.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#34 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:00 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Sat Nov 07 2020

...ETA REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS THE CENTER REFORMS TO
THE NORTHEAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 81.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for south Florida from
Golden Beach to Chokoloskee, including Florida Bay, as well as
for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect along the Florida east
coast north of Sebastien Inlet to the Brevard/Volusia county line.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida west coast
north of Bonita Beach to Englewood.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cayman Islands
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas.
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence.
* Florida coast from Golden Beach to Chokoloskee, including
Florida Bay.
* The Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth.
* Florida east coast north of Golden Beach Florida to the
Brevard/Volusia county line
* Florida west coast north of Chokoloskee to Englewood
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm
Watches or Warnings could be required for some of these areas later
today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 81.8 West. Eta is moving
toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). An east-northeast to
northeast motion is expected through early Sunday. A turn toward
the north and northwest are expected by Sunday afternoon. On the
forecast track, the center of Eta will approach the Cayman Islands
later today, be near central Cuba tonight and Sunday, and near the
Florida Keys or south Florida Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center. Grand Cayman Island recently reported estimated
sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on observations from
Grand Cayman Island is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Thursday morning:

Jamaica: An additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: an additional 5 to 10
inches (200 to 400 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches
(650 mm).

The Bahamas and portions of the central and southern Florida
peninsula, including the Keys: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be
possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman
Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Marco Island, FL to North Miami Beach, FL including Biscayne
Bay...2-3 ft
Florida Keys...2-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...2-3 ft
North Miami Beach, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
this afternoon and evening, in the warning area sin Cuba tonight
and Sunday, in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and in south
Florida and the Florida Keys late Sunday and Sunday night.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba
tonight and Sunday and in the watch area in Florida by late Sunday
or early Monday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday evening and Sunday
night over south Florida and the Keys

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward
and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the southern coast of
Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Sat Nov 07 2020

Satellite imagery and surface data indicate that Eta has become a
little better organized this morning, with the center re-forming to
the northeast near an area of deep convection. Surface
observations from Grand Cayman Island show that the system has
regained tropical-storm strength, and the initial intensity is
increased to 35 kt.

The initial motion is uncertain dur to the reformation, with the
best estimate of 055/15. This general motion should continue for
the next 24 h or so as Eta is steered by a mid- to upper-level
trough over the Gulf of Mexico. From 24-96 h, the trough is
forecast to become a cut-off low, and Eta is expected to turn
northward, northeastward, and eventually westward as it merges with
the low. There remains some spread in the guidance in just where
these turns will occur and how close the center will come to south
Florida and the Florida Keys. This part of the new track is nudged
just a little north of the previous track. After 96 h, Eta should
move slowly across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with the forecast
track showing a northward motion as a compromise of the
poorly-agreeing guidance.

Although the storm is experiencing moderate to strong southwesterly
shear, strong upper-level divergence caused by the trough should
allow strengthening through about 48 h, although the cyclone may
acquire some subtropical characteristics as it merges with the
baroclinic system. After that time, dry air entrainment is likely
to cause Eta to slowly weaken through the remainder of the forecast
period. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the old
forecast.

The new forecast track requires a Tropical Storm Warning for south
Florida and the Florida Keys at this time.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will continue across the Cayman Islands, portions
of Cuba and Jamaica, and will spread north into the Bahamas and
southern Florida. This rain may result in significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash
and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands,
Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected today and Sunday in
portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and the northwestern Bahamas,
where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected by late Sunday in the
Florida Keys and along portions of the southeast Florida coast,
where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm
conditions are possible elsewhere in portions of southern and
central Florida beginning Sunday night, where a Tropical Storm Watch
is in effect. Additional Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be
needed later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 19.6N 81.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 20.8N 80.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 22.5N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0000Z 23.8N 79.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 09/1200Z 25.0N 80.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 25.8N 81.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 26.2N 83.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 26.5N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 28.5N 84.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#35 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:13 am

Hurricane Eta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1100 AM EST Sat Nov 07 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND STRONGER WINDS
IN ETA...

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds in Eta have increased to 50 mph.
The plane is still investigating Eta at this time. If it finds
stronger winds, a special advisory may be required during the next
hour or two.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EST...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 81.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#36 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 07, 2020 1:19 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Special Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
100 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT ETA HAS
STRENGTHENED SOME MORE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 81.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM WSW OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cayman Islands
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas.
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence
* Florida coast from Golden Beach to Chokoloskee, including
Florida Bay
* The Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida east coast north of Golden Beach Florida to the
Brevard/Volusia county line
* Florida west coast north of Chokoloskee to Englewood
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm
Watches or Warnings could be required for some of these areas later
today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 81.1 West. Eta is moving
toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). An east-northeast to
northeast motion is expected through early Sunday. A turn toward
the north and northwest are expected by Sunday afternoon. On the
forecast track, the center of Eta will move away from the Cayman
Islands later today, be near central Cuba tonight and Sunday, and
near the Florida Keys or south Florida Sunday night and Monday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph
(95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
expected through Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Thursday morning:

Jamaica: An additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: an additional 5 to 10
inches (200 to 400 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches
(650 mm).

The Bahamas and portions of the central and southern Florida
peninsula, including the Keys: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be
possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman
Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Marco Island, FL to North Miami Beach, FL including Biscayne
Bay...2-3 ft
Florida Keys...2-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...2-3 ft
North Miami Beach, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
this afternoon and evening, in the warning area sin Cuba tonight
and Sunday, in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and in south
Florida and the Florida Keys late Sunday and Sunday night.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba
tonight and Sunday and in the watch area in Florida by late Sunday
or early Monday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday evening and Sunday
night over south Florida and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward
and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the southern coast of
Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Beven




Tropical Storm Eta Special Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
100 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020

This special advisory is being issued to update the first 36 h of
the intensity forecast of Eta. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft found a better defined center north of the Cayman
Islands with flight-level and SFMR winds supporting an initial
intensity of 50 kt, along with a central pressure of 994 mb. The
updated intensity forecast shows a little more intensification
during the first 12 h, although it is unclear how much
intensification may occur due to strong vertical shear and
interaction with a developing upper-level low nearby.

No changes were made to the forecast track. The first 36 h of the
wind radii were adjusted for the new intensity forecast.

Note that this special advisory is being issued in lieu of the 100
PM EST (1800 UTC) intermediate advisory.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will continue across the Cayman Islands, portions
of Cuba and Jamaica, and will spread north into the Bahamas and
southern Florida. This rain may result in significant, life-
threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash
and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands,
Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected today and Sunday in
portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and the northwestern Bahamas,
where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected by late Sunday in the
Florida Keys and along portions of the southeast Florida coast,
where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm
conditions are possible elsewhere in portions of southern and
central Florida beginning Sunday night, where a Tropical Storm Watch
is in effect. Additional Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be
needed later today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1800Z 20.0N 81.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 20.8N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 22.5N 79.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0000Z 23.8N 79.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 09/1200Z 25.0N 80.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 25.8N 81.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 26.2N 83.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 26.5N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 28.5N 84.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#37 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 07, 2020 3:58 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020

...ETA MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND TOWARD THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CUBA...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 80.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM WSW OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the coast of southern Florida
from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including Biscayne Bay, and for
the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, incuding
Florida Bay.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the coast of southern Florida
from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach, and for the Florida Keys from
Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from north of Golden Beach to
Jupiter Inlet, Florida, and west of Chokoloskee, Florida to Bonita
Beach, Florida, including Lake Okeechobee.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including
Biscayne Bay
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cayman Islands
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence
* Florida coast from Jupiter Inlet to Bonita Beach, including
Florida Bay
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida coast from north of Jupiter Inlet to the Brevard/Volusia
county line
* Florida coast from north of Bonita Beach to Englewood

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm
Watches or Warnings could be required for some of these areas later
today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 80.7 West. Eta is moving
toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the north and
northwest at a slower forward speed is expected on Sunday and Sunday
night, followed by a westward motion on Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Eta will cross central Cuba tonight, approach
south Florida and the Florida Keys on Sunday, and pass near or over
south Florida and the Florida Keys Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible through Sunday night, and Eta could
be near hurricane strength as it approaches Florida.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Thursday morning:

Jamaica: An additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: an additional 5 to 10
inches (200 to 400 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches
(650 mm).

The Bahamas and portions of the central and southern Florida
peninsula, including the Keys: 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm),
isolated maximum totals of 18 inches (450 mm).

Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be
possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman
Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. Isolated minor
river flooding is also possible for Central Florida.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-4 ft
Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...2-3 ft
Golden Beach to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
for a few more hours, as well as in the warning areas in Cuba
tonight and Sunday, in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and in
south Florida and the Florida Keys late Sunday and Sunday night.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in
Florida Sunday night and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the tropical storm watch area in Cuba tonight and
Sunday and in the watch area in Florida by late Sunday or early
Monday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday evening and Sunday
night over south Florida and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward
and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the southern coast of
Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020

An earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that
Eta had strengthened to 50 kt with a central pressure of 994 mb.
Since that time, the storm organization is unchanged in satellite
imagery, while the central convection looks a little more ragged in
radar data from Grand Cayman Island and Cuba. Eta is currently
being affected by 25-35 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear,
and water vapor imagery shows upper-level dry air approaching the
inner core from the west.

The initial motion now 050/14. There is little change to the
forecast philosophy through the first 96 h of the forecast. A mid-
to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico should steer Eta
northeastward for the next 12 h or so, which would bring the
center near or over the coast of central Cuba. Then from 12-96 h,
the trough should cut off into a closed low near western Cuba, with
Eta turning northward and eventually westward near the Florida Keys
and south Florida as it merges with the low. The track guidance
has shifted a little to the west over Cuba and a little to the
south near Florida, possibly in response to data from the G-IV jet
mission earlier today, and the new track forecast does likewise.
The track guidance becomes quite divergent after 96 h, and the
96-120 h motion is now slower than the previous forecast as a
result.

The intensity forecast is tricky. Strong upper-level divergence
caused by the trough is allowing the cyclone to strengthen. However,
at some time in the next 24-48 h the shear and dry air entrainment
should prevent any further strengthening. The intensity guidance
shows a little intensification during the next 24-36 h with the bulk
of the guidance peaking near 60 kt. After that time, the dry air
should cause at least some weakening. The new intensity forecast is
increased a bit from the previous forecast to show a 60-kt
intensity at 24 and 36 h. This requires issuing a hurricane watch
for the Florida Keys and portions of south Florida.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will continue across the Cayman Islands, portions
of Cuba, and Jamaica, and will spread north into the Bahamas and
southern Florida. This rain may result in significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash
and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands,
Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida, along with potential
minor river flooding in central Florida.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue for a few more hours in
portions of the Cayman Islands, and are expected tonight and Sunday
in portions of Cuba and the northwestern Bahamas, where Tropical
Storm Warnings are in effect.

3. Damaging tropical-storm-force winds are expected Sunday night,
with hurricane-force winds possible, in the Florida Keys and
portions of the southern Florida peninsula, where a Tropical Storm
Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect. Elsewhere across
portions of the east and west coasts of the Florida peninsula, the
risk of tropical-storm-force winds will extend well away from Eta's
center, and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect.

4. A life-threatening storm surge is possible along portions of the
southern coast of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys, where
a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in the Storm Surge Watch
area should follow any advice given by local officials.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 20.4N 80.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 21.6N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 08/1800Z 23.3N 79.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 09/0600Z 24.7N 79.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 25.2N 81.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 25.7N 82.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 26.1N 83.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 26.5N 84.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 27.0N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#38 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 07, 2020 6:57 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
700 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020

...ETA STRENGTHENING AND HEADING FOR CUBA...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODS AND STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 80.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM WSW OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM S OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of the Cayman Islands has discontinued
the Tropical Storm Warning for the Cayman Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including
Biscayne Bay
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence
* Florida coast from Jupiter Inlet to Bonita Beach, including
Florida Bay
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida coast from north of Jupiter Inlet to the Brevard/Volusia
county line
* Florida coast from north of Bonita Beach to Englewood

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm
Watches or Warnings could be required for some of these areas
tonight.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 80.2 West. Eta has
recently jogged toward the east, but is expected to resume a motion
toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) tonight. A turn toward
the north and northwest at a slower forward speed is expected on
Sunday and Sunday night, followed by a westward motion on Monday. On
the forecast track, the center of Eta will cross central Cuba
tonight, approach south Florida and the Florida Keys on Sunday, pass
near or over south Florida and the Florida Keys Sunday night and
Monday and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible through Sunday
night, and Eta could be near hurricane strength as it approaches
Florida.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.26 inches)
based on NOAA dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Thursday morning:

Jamaica: An additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: an additional 5 to 10
inches (200 to 400 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches
(650 mm).

The Bahamas and portions of the central and southern Florida
peninsula, including the Keys: 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm),
isolated maximum totals of 18 inches (450 mm).

Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be
possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman
Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. Isolated minor
river flooding is also possible for Central Florida.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-4 ft
Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...2-3 ft
Golden Beach to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas
in Cuba tonight and Sunday, in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday,
and in south Florida and the Florida Keys Sunday and Sunday night.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in
Florida Sunday night and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the tropical storm watch area in Cuba tonight and and
in the watch area in Florida by late Sunday or early Monday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday evening and Sunday
night over south Florida and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward
and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the southern coast of
Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#39 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 07, 2020 9:58 pm

Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020

...ETA FORECAST TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODS AND
STRONG WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 79.9W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM WSW OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM S OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the East Coast of
Florida from north of Jupiter Inlet to the Brevard/Volusia County
line and for the West Coast of Florida from north of Bonita Beach
to Englewood.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the West Coast of
Florida from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including
Biscayne Bay
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence
* Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood
including Florida Bay
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida coast from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm
Watches or Warnings could be required for some of these areas
on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 79.9 West. Eta is moving
toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north
and northwest at a slower forward speed is expected on Sunday and
Sunday night, followed by a westward motion on Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of Eta will cross central Cuba tonight,
approach south Florida and the Florida Keys on Sunday, pass near or
over south Florida and the Florida Keys Sunday night and Monday and
be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is possible after landfall in Cuba
overnight, but Eta is forecast to re-strengthen later on
Sunday and could be near hurricane strength as it approaches and
moves near or over Florida.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Thursday morning:

Jamaica: An additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: an additional 5 to 10
inches (200 to 400 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches
(650 mm).

The Bahamas and portions of the central and southern Florida
peninsula, including the Keys: 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm),
isolated maximum totals of 18 inches (450 mm).

Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be
possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman
Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. Minor to
isolated moderate river flooding is also possible for Central
Florida.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-4 ft
Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...2-3 ft
Golden Beach to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas
in Cuba overnight and Sunday, in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday,
and in south Florida and the Florida Keys Sunday and Sunday night.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in
Florida Sunday night and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the tropical storm watch area in Cuba tonight and
in the watch area in Florida by early Monday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday evening and Sunday
night over south Florida and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the Cayman
Islands, Jamaica, the southern coast of Cuba, the northwestern
Bahamas, and southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Blake





Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Eta has continued to
strengthen. An abbreviated mission found that the pressure had
dropped to 991 mb, with believable SFMR winds of 55 kt. Since the
plane left, the cloud pattern has not become better organized, and
perhaps some shear is affecting the cyclone. Thus, the initial wind
speed is kept at 55 kt.

The storm continues to move to the northeast tonight. While the
overall synoptic pattern remains the same, there has been a big
change to note with the track forecast, with a notable south and
west trend with almost all of the guidance on Sunday and beyond.
It appears that the system becomes more involved with a closed low
forming near western Cuba tomorrow, which causes a sharper and
faster left turn near the Florida Straits or Keys. The new NHC
forecast is shifted in that direction, but is well north of the bulk
of the guidance due to continuity concerns, and future southward
and faster shifts are possible. I should mention that even if the
forecast does shift farther south, tropical-storm-force winds will
likely cover much of the southern and central Florida peninsula due
to the expected growth of Eta. Beyond Florida, this one of those
times where the track uncertainty is much larger than normal, so
check back tomorrow for further updates as big long-range changes
are possible.

Eta is likely to maintain its intensity before landfall in Cuba,
then weaken somewhat due to the rugged terrain there. The storm
should re-intensify over the Florida Straits in moderate shear
conditions but with favorable forcing from the upper-level low. No
change has been made to the intensity forecast near Florida, and Eta
is likely to be near or at hurricane-strength there. Over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico, some dry air entrainment could briefly
cause some weakening, but the system is forecast to move very slowly
over the warm waters. In fact, a large portion of the guidance
actually show it re-gaining hurricane strength as it moves farther
away from any cooler shelf waters near Florida and sits over the
Loop Current. While it seems pre-mature to raise the forecast much
due to the large track uncertainty, the forecast is bumped up on
days 3-4, but is below the model consensus.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will continue across portions of Cuba and
Jamaica, and will spread north into the Bahamas and southern
Florida. This rain may result in significant, life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash and urban flooding
will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern
Florida, along with potential minor to isolated moderate river
flooding in Central Florida.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected tonight and Sunday in
portions of Cuba and the northwestern Bahamas, where Tropical
Storm Warnings are in effect.

3. Damaging tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin Sunday
afternoon, with hurricane-force winds possible, in the Florida Keys
and portions of the southern Florida peninsula, where a Tropical
Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect. Elsewhere across
portions of the east and west coasts of the Florida peninsula, the
risk of tropical-storm-force winds will extend well away from Eta's
center, and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect.

4. A dangerous storm surge is possible along portions of the
southern coast of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys, where
a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in the Storm Surge Watch
area should follow any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 20.7N 79.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 22.1N 79.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/0000Z 23.8N 79.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 09/1200Z 24.9N 81.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 25.0N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 25.0N 84.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 25.5N 84.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 26.0N 84.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 27.0N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#40 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 08, 2020 4:55 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2020

...ETA MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA...
...FORECAST TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODS AND
STRONG WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 79.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM W OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM S OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including
Biscayne Bay
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence
* Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood
including Florida Bay
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida coast from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm
Watches or Warnings could be required for some of these areas
on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 79.3 West. Eta is moving
toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north
and northwest at a slower forward speed is expected later today and
tonight, followed by a westward motion on Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Eta will move across central Cuba during the
next few hours and then move into the Florida Straits later this
morning. Eta is forecast to pass near or over the Florida Keys
tonight and early Monday and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
late Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is possible during the next few hours as Eta
moves across Cuba, but the storm is forecast to be near hurricane
strength when it moves near or over the Florida Keys.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday morning:

Jamaica: An additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of Cuba: an additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (635 mm).

The Bahamas: an additional 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including
the Keys: 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), isolated maximum totals of
18 inches (450 mm).

Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be
possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the
Bahamas, and Southern Florida. Minor river flooding is also
possible for Central Florida.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-4 ft
Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...2-3 ft
Golden Beach to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
warning areas in Cuba during the next several hours and in the
northwestern Bahamas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin in south Florida and the Florida Keys
this afternoon or evening, and hurricane conditions are possible in
the hurricane watch area in Florida tonight and early Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area in Cuba during the next few hours and in the watch area in
Florida by early Monday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this evening through Monday
over south Florida and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the
north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and
the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. Swells will
gradually subside along the south coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands
and Jamaica later today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi




Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2020

Although Eta has a ragged and asymmetric appearance in satellite
and radar images, the cloud tops are quite cold with a lot of
embedded lightning strikes being detected in the northeastern
quadrant. The center is estimated to be very near the south coast
of central Cuba, with much of the thunderstorms over the island.
Since the storm has not changed much since last evening, the
initial intensity is held at 55 kt. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are
scheduled to investigate Eta again later this morning once it
emerges off the north coast of Cuba.

Eta continues to move northeastward, but at a slightly slower pace
of 10 kt. The cyclone is now located just to the east or southeast
of a mid- to upper-level low. This feature and a broader trough over
the Gulf of Mexico should cause Eta to turn northward later this
morning and then northwestward this afternoon and evening. This
track should take the core of Eta across central Cuba during the
next couple of hours and then into the Straits of Florida. Eta is
forecast to pass over the Florida Keys tonight. After that time, a
slow westward motion is expected as the cyclone merges with the
trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday.
Later in the week, the steering currents weaken and Eta will likely
be drifting around over the Gulf of Mexico. The new NHC track
forecast is a little to the south, or left, of the previous one to
come into better agreement with the latest models.

The tropical storm is feeling some effects of southwesterly wind
shear and water vapor satellite images show a swath of dry air
entraining into the western side of the circulation. These factors
along with the interaction with the landmass of Cuba later this
morning should cause Eta to hold steady in strength or weaken a
little in the short term. The shear is expected to lessen when the
storm moves over the Straits of Florida, and that could allow Eta to
become more symmetric and strengthen, and it could become a
hurricane as it approaches the Florida Keys tonight. After the
cyclone passes the Keys and enters the Gulf of Mexico, there are
mixed signals in the models. Although the shear is expected to be
moderate while Eta passes over the warm waters of the Gulf of
Mexico Loop current, there will likely be drier air surrounding
the storm. As a compromise, the NHC intensity forecast shows Eta
holding relatively steady in strength for much of the forecast
period.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba,
Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into
central Florida. This rain may result in significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash
and urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas
and southern Florida, along with potential minor river flooding in
central Florida.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue today in
portions of Cuba and the northwestern Bahamas, where Tropical Storm
Warnings are in effect.

3. Damaging tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin this
afternoon, with hurricane-force winds possible, in the Florida Keys
and portions of the southern Florida peninsula, where a Tropical
Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect. Elsewhere across
portions of the east and west coasts of the Florida peninsula, the
risk of tropical-storm-force winds will extend well away from Eta's
center, and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect.

4. A dangerous storm surge is possible along portions of the
southern coast of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys, where
a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in the Storm Surge Watch
area should follow any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 21.5N 79.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 23.0N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 24.5N 81.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 24.3N 83.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 24.2N 84.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 24.2N 85.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 24.6N 85.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 25.8N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 26.7N 84.4W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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