ATL: ETA - Advisories

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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#41 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 08, 2020 3:53 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2020

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODS AND
STRONG WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA, FLORIDA, AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 79.2W
ABOUT 90 MI...55 KM W OF CANAGUA CUBA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning and Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the
Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida
Bay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including
Biscayne Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence
* Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood
including Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida coast from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor
the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm Watches or
Warnings could be required for some of these areas on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft and Cuban radars indicate that the center of Tropical Storm
Eta was located just north of central Cuba near latitude 22.5
North, longitude 79.2 West. Eta is moving toward the north near 14
mph (22 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north-northwest is
expected by this afternoon, followed by a northwestward turn by this
evening, and a westward motion by early Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Eta will continue to move over the Florida
Straits between Cuba and the Bahamas today, pass near or over the
Florida Keys tonight and early Monday, and be over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday.

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours, and Eta could become a hurricane before it reaches the
Florida Keys tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday morning:

Jamaica: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), isolated maximum
storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of Cuba: an additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm),
isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (635 mm).

The Bahamas: an additional 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including
the Keys: 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), isolated maximum totals
of 18 inches (450 mm).

Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be
possible in Cuba, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.
Significant flash and urban flooding will also be possible for
Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. Minor river flooding
is also possible for Central Florida.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-4 ft
Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
Golden Beach, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Florida Keys by early
Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue
in the warning areas in Cuba during the next several hours and in
the northwestern Bahamas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin in south Florida and the Florida Keys this
afternoon or evening, and hurricane conditions are possible in the
hurricane watch area in Florida tonight and early Monday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in
Florida by early Monday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this evening through Monday
over south Florida and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days. Swells will gradually
subside along the south coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands and
Jamaica later today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2020

Eta remains a sheared tropical storm, although the low-level center
has become embedded a little farther into the convective cloud mass.
Cuban radar data from Camaguey indicate that Eta's center has moved
back over water and is now located just offshore the east-central
coast of Cuba. Radar imagery also indicates that a fairly
impressive band of deep convection wraps more than half way around
the center, especially in the western semicircle. Cirrus outflow
has expanded in the southern semicircle, and indication that the
shear may be decreasing somewhat. However, water vapor satellite
imagery still shows a fair amount of dry mid-/upper-level air
impinging on the cyclone from the southwest. The initial intensity
of 55 kt is based on a report of 850-mb flight-level winds of 70 kt
and reliable SFMR winds of 55-57 kt.

The initial motion estimate is now 355/10 kt. Eta is interacting
with a sharp mid-/upper-level, negatively tilted trough that
extends east-southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and into the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. The eastern end of the trough is
forecast to develop into a cutoff low alter today, which will act
to turn Eta northwestward by this afternoon, and westward later
tonight. The complex interaction between these two features is
forecast to continue through 72 hours, resulting in the development
of weak steering currents and Eta slowing down and possibly
stalling near or just west of the Florida Keys by day 3.
Thereafter, the global and regional models show widely varying
solutions ranging from a motion toward the south or southwest
(UKMET) toward Yucatan, to slow northward (ECMWF) or northeastward
motion (GFS/HWRF) over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The new NHC
track forecast lies to the north, or to the right, of the 12Z
interpolated models and consensus models (due to the interpolater
possibly having some problems handling the sharp westward turn that
Eta is forecast to make), and lies close to the previous advisory
track and a blend of the operational 00Z ECMWF, and 06Z GFS and
UKMET model tracks.

Now that Eta's center is back over water, gradual re-strengthening
is expected to begin later this afternoon. The global models are
forecasting to vertical wind shear to steadily decrease across the
center for the next next 48 hours as Eta moves north of the cutoff
low and into a col small region region between the low and an
upper-level trough moving eastward across northern Florida. The
GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity guidance indicate that the
shear will decrease to less than 10 kt by 36 hours, but the shear
will likely decrease sooner since SHIPS model uses winds that extend
out 500 km (270 nmi) from the center, which are not always
representative of the wind flow near the center. With favorable
low-shear conditions and sea-surface temperatures warmer than 28 deg
C, the only hindering factor appears to be proximity to dry
mid-level air, which could get entrained into the inner core and
inhibit development of deep convection in that part of the cyclone.
For now, the new NHC intensity forecast remains similar to the
previous advisory, which is above the model guidance up to 36 hours
and a little below the guidance thereafter, and shows Eta at 65 kt
or Category 1 hurricane intensity in the 24-72 hour period. However,
it is certainly possibly that if dry air does not penetrate into
Eta's inner core later today, then the cyclone could become a
hurricane before it reaches the Florida Keys tonight. For this
reason, a Hurricane Warning has been issued for portions of the
Florida Keys.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba,
Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into
central Florida. This rain may result in significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash
and urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas
and southern Florida, along with potential minor river flooding in
central Florida.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue today in
portions of Cuba and the northwestern Bahamas, where Tropical Storm
Warnings are in effect.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the Florida
Keys by early Monday where a Hurricane Warning is now in effect.
Damaging tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin in the
Florida Keys by this afternoon. Tropical Storm conditions are also
expected and hurricane conditions are possible for portions of the
southern Florida peninsula where a Tropical Storm Warning and
Hurricane Watch are in effect. Elsewhere across portions of the east
and west coasts of the Florida peninsula, the risk of
tropical-storm-force winds will extend well away from Eta's center,
and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect.

4. A dangerous storm surge is expected in portions of the Florida
Keys where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. A Storm Surge
Watch is also in effect for portions of the southern coast of
the Florida peninsula. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning
and Watch areas should follow any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 22.5N 79.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 24.1N 79.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 24.5N 82.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 23.9N 84.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 23.8N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 24.0N 85.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 24.9N 85.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 26.2N 84.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 26.9N 83.9W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#42 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 08, 2020 3:58 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2020

...ETA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODS AND
STRONG WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA, FLORIDA, AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 79.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ESE OF MARATHON FLORIDA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch has been discontinued for the east coast of
Florida north of Golden Beach.

The Storm Surge Watch north of Card Sound Bridge to Golden Beach, FL
including Biscayne Bay has been discontinued.

The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for the provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Bonita Beach to Card Sound Bridge

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence
* Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida coast from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 79.5 West. Eta is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue this evening, followed by a turn toward the
west by Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will
continue to move over the Florida Straits between Cuba and the
Bahamas this afternoon, pass near or over the Florida Keys tonight
and early Monday, and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late
Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so
and Eta is forecast to become a hurricane as it moves near or over
the Florida Keys tonight and early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. Sustained tropical-storm-force winds have been
reported along much of the southeast Florida coast during the past
few hours. A WeatherFlow station at Dania pier recently reported
sustained winds of 42 mph (68 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).
An elevated site at Port Everglades reported 51 mph (82 km/h)
sustained wind and a 68 mph (109 km/h) gust. Farther north, a
National Ocean Service site at Lake Worth Pier reported sustained
winds of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (79 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday morning:

Jamaica: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), isolated maximum
storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of Cuba: an additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm),
isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (635 mm).

The Bahamas: an additional 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including
the Keys: storm totals of 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm).

Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be
possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Significant flash and urban flooding will also be possible for
Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. Minor river flooding is
also possible for Central Florida.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
Card Sound Bridge to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne
Bay...2-3 ft
Golden Beach, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Florida Keys by early
Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue
in the warning areas in Cuba during the next several hours and in
the northwestern Bahamas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin in south Florida and the Florida Keys this
afternoon or evening, and hurricane conditions are possible in the
hurricane watch area in Florida tonight and early Monday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in
Florida by early Monday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening through Monday
over south Florida and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days. Swells will gradually
subside along the south coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands and
Jamaica later today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Zelinsky



Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2020

Eta's appearance in radar and satellite imagery has changed little
since the previous advisory and the last reconnaissance mission a
few hours ago, with a ragged mid-level eye-like feature briefly
wrapping up for less than an hour before quickly decaying. Average
velocity values from the Miami, Florida, NOAA WSR-88D Doppler
weather radar have occasionally been as high as 60 kt between
10,000-12,000 ft ASL to the north and northeast of the center.
Therefore, the initial intensity is being maintained at 55 kt for
this advisory. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Eta around 0000Z this evening.

The initial motion estimate is 325/12 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous track forecast reasoning from the last 36
hours. Eta is now moving northwestward around the northeastern side
of an upper-level low that has formed over the extreme northwestern
Caribbean Sea near the Isle of Youth. The combined easterly flow
between the upper-low and a deep-layer ridge located near the U.S.
mid-Atlantic coast is expected to force Eta westward overnight and
then turn the cyclone slowly southwestward in the 24-48 hour period,
with the cyclone possibly stalling just west of the lower Florida
Keys when steering currents collapse around 48 hours. By 72 hours
and beyond, a broad mid-latitude trough is forecast to move from the
U.S. west coast eastward over the central U.S. by 96 hours, and then
over the eastern U.S. by 120 hours, which will erode the western
portion of the ridge and act to gradually lift Eta northeastward
toward northern Florida. The latest NHC model guidance has shifted
slightly northward, possibly due to the NOAA G-IV jet aircraft
synoptic track dropsonde observations from earlier this morning, and
now shows the center of Eta making landfall in the middle or lower
Florida Keys late tonight and early Monday. The new NHC official
track forecast has been nudged northward close to the consensus
models HCCA and TCVA. It should be noted that although the latest
model guidance and track forecast shows landfall in the Florida
Keys, the strongest winds are occurring, and are expected to occur,
well to the north and east of the center.

Satellite imagery indicates that a pronounced dry slot has wrapped
into the eastern portion of Eta's circulation, with radar data
suggesting that it has occasionally penetrated into the inner core
region as well, eroding the thunderstorm activity in the southern
portion of the aforementioned eye-like feature. However, with the
vertical shear forecast to steadily decrease from the current 25 kt
down to less than 10 kt by 24 hours while Eta is moving over 28.5
deg C SSTs, strengthening is expected late tonight during the
convective maximum period and continuing into Monday, resulting in
Eta intensifying into a hurricane during that time. Environmental
conditions are expected to remain somewhat favorable for Eta to
maintain hurricane status through 60 hours, followed by gradual
weakening from 72-120 hours due to increasing southwesterly shear of
20-25 kt and entrainment of very dry mid-level air. The latest
official intensity forecast is similar to the previous NHC advisory,
and remains above the model guidance through 36 hours and is a
little below the guidance thereafter.

Based on ASCAT data and surface observations, the wind radii were
expanded in the northwest and northeast quadrants.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Monday across
portions of the Florida Keys, and are possible across portions of
southern Florida. Tropical storm conditions will extend well away
from Eta's center across the southern and central portions of the
Florida peninsula.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge in portions of
the Florida Keys. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along
portions of the southern coast of the Florida peninsula. Residents
in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba,
Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and will spread north
into central Florida. This rain may result in significant, life-
threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Significant
flash and urban flooding are also possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas
and southern Florida, along with potential minor river flooding in
central Florida.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 23.9N 79.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 24.7N 81.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 24.6N 83.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 23.6N 84.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 24.0N 85.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 25.1N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 25.8N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 27.1N 84.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 29.0N 82.8W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#43 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 08, 2020 9:58 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2020

...ETA BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
...STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 80.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM E OF MARATHON FLORIDA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM E OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Bonita Beach to Card Sound Bridge

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence
* Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida coast from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 80.5 West. Eta is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-northwestward to
westward motion is expected overnight, followed by a west-
southwestward motion on Monday and Monday night with some reduction
in forward speed. Little overall motion is expected on Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Eta will pass near or over the
Florida Keys tonight and early Monday, and be over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and National Weather
Service Doppler radar indicate that the maximum sustained winds are
near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is
forecast during the next day or so and Eta is forecast to become a
hurricane when it moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
from the center. A WeatherFlow station at Carysfort Reef Light
in the Florida Keys recently reported a sustained wind of 57 mph
(91 km/h) with a gust to 72 mph (114 km/h). An elevated station a
Port Everglades recently reported a wind gust of 66 mph (106 km/h).
Farther north a sustained wind of 42 mph (68 km/h) with a gust to
54 mph (87 km/h) was reported at the Lake Worth Pier.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday morning:

Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including
the Keys: storm totals of 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm).

The Bahamas: an additional 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Jamaica: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (635 mm).

Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be
possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Life-threatening flash flooding will be possible across the urban
areas of southeast Florida. Significant flash and urban flooding
will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas, and the remainder of
southern Florida. Minor river flooding is also possible for central
Florida.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
Card Sound Bridge to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne
Bay...2-3 ft
Golden Beach, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread across the Florida Keys
tonight with hurricane conditions expected in a portion of the
Florida Keys by early Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to continue in the warning areas in the northwestern
Bahamas and the Florida peninsula through early Monday. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in Florida
tonight and early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the Tropical Storm Watch area in Florida by Monday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Monday across south
Florida and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days. Swells will gradually
subside along the south coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands and
Jamaica later today. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Beven/Papin




Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2020

Although deep convection has waned near the center of Eta since
this afternoon, radar imagery continues to show a ring of
low-topped convection around the center, with some deep convection
returning over the northeastern portion of the circulation. Doppler
radar velocities of 64-68 kt around 5000 ft, and recent NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft observations support maintaining the 55 kt
initial intensity. The aircraft reported a minimum pressure of
around 993 mb.

Since Eta has a fairly large radius of maximum winds and a dry slot
that has wrapped into the inner core, it appears that any short-term
strengthening should be slow to occur. As a result, the new NHC
intensity forecast calls for a little less strengthening until Eta
moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in about 24 hours.
Regardless of whether Eta becomes a hurricane near the Florida Keys,
there is little difference in impacts between a 55-to-60-kt
tropical storm and a 65-kt hurricane. After 24 hours, Eta is
forecast to move over warmer sea surface temperatures in the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico and the vertical shear is forecast to
decrease. This is expected to allow for some strengthening and Eta
is forecast re-gain hurricane strengthen by Tuesday. Gradual
weakening is predicted between 72-120 hours due to increasing
southwesterly shear and the entrainment of dry mid-level air. The
updated NHC intensity forecast is near the SHIPS/LGEM models during
the first couple of days, and in good agreement with the HFIP
corrected consensus model thereafter.

Eta has turned northwestward this evening around the north side
of a cut-off low located just south of western Cuba. The tropical
cyclone should turn west-northwestward to westward overnight, and
a southwestward motion is expected on Tuesday as Eta pivots
around the upper-low. In 36-48 h, Eta is expected to slow down and
possibly stall over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as the steering
currents weakening. In about 3 days, Eta should begin moving
northward between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and a
broad trough over the central United States. The models that
maintain Eta has a deeper system show a faster northeastward motion
late in the period, whereas models that weaken Eta slow its
northward progression by day 5. The NHC track forecast lies near
the model consensus at 96 and 120 h, and is similar to the previous
advisory.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba,
Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into
central Florida. Life-threatening flash flooding is possible
across the urban areas of southeast Florida. Significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in
Cuba, and significant flash and urban flooding are possible
for Jamaica, the Bahamas and the remainder of southern Florida,
along with potential minor river flooding in central Florida.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Monday
across portions of the Florida Keys, and are possible across
portions of southern Florida. Tropical storm conditions will extend
well away from Eta's center across the southern and central
portions of the Florida peninsula.

3. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge in portions of
the Florida Keys. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along
portions of the southern coast of the Florida peninsula. Residents
in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

4. Eta is forecast to approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this
week as a tropical storm, and could bring impacts from rain, wind,
and storm surge. Interests in this area should monitor the progress
of Eta and updates to the forecast this week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 24.6N 80.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 24.9N 82.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 24.2N 84.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 23.6N 85.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 24.2N 85.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 25.5N 84.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 26.6N 84.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 28.2N 83.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 30.0N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#44 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 08, 2020 11:18 pm

Tropical Storm Eta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1100 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2020

...ETA MAKES LANDFALL IN LOWER MATECUMBE KEY FLORIDA...

Doppler radar data indicate that Eta has made landfall on Lower
Matecumbe Key in the Florida Keys as a strong tropical storm with
maximum winds estimated to be near 65 mph (100 km/h).

A WeatherFlow station at Carysfort Reef Light in the Florida Keys
recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) with a gust
of 63 mph (101 km/h). Another Weatherflow station in Key Largo
recently reported a wind gust of 53 mph (85 km/h). A wind gust
of 47 mph (76 km/h) was measured at Homestead Air Force Base in
Homestead, Florida.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EST...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 80.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF MARATHON FLORIDA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ENE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Blake
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#45 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 09, 2020 4:29 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2020

...ETA JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...
...STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OCCURRING
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 82.0W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning and Storm Surge Watch have been
discontinued.

The Hurricane Warning for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay have been
replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Hurricane Watch for south Florida has been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning for the Florida west coast from Englewood to Anna Maria
Island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence
* Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Anna Maria
Island
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 82.0 West. Eta is moving
toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west to west-
southwest motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected
later today and tonight. Little overall motion is expected on
Tuesday and a slow northward motion is forecast on Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Eta will gradually pull away from
the Florida Keys and south Florida today and be over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Wednesday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and National Weather
Service Doppler radar indicate that the maximum sustained winds
remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening
is forecast during the next day or so, and Eta is forecast to become
a hurricane when it moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Saturday morning:

Jamaica and The Bahamas: An additional 2 to 4 inches (25 to 75 mm),
with isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including
the Keys: an additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated
maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm) in South Florida.

Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along
with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Life-threatening flash
flooding will be possible across inundated urban areas of southeast
Florida. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for
Jamaica, the Bahamas, and the remainder of southern and eastern
Florida over the next several days. Minor river flooding is also
possible for central Florida.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Card Sound Bridge including Florida Keys... 2-3
ft
Card Sound Bridge to Golden Beach... 1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous
waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the
surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across the Florida
Keys, south and central Florida, and the northwestern Bahamas
today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical
Storm Watch area in Cuba tonight and Tuesday.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight over
parts of south Florida and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi





Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 36...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2020

Corrected a typo in the second paragraph

Tropical Storm Eta made landfall in the middle Florida Keys around
11 pm EST with maximum winds of about 55 kt. Since then it has
moved across Florida Bay and is now located off the coast of
extreme southwestern Florida. The storm has generally changed
little in strength overnight with maximum winds estimated to be near
55 kt based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter and Doppler radar data. Bands
of heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds continue over portions
of the Florida Keys, and south and central Florida.

Eta is now moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. The upper-level
trough that Eta is entangled with and a mid-level high pressure
system off the southeast U.S. coast should steer the storm westward
to west-southwestward away from south Florida and the Keys through
tonight. The steering currents surrounding Eta are expected to
collapse on Tuesday, and most of the guidance responds by showing
Eta meandering over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in the 24-48
hour time period. After that time, the models diverge significantly
with the ECMWF showing a turn to the north or northeast in response
to an upper trough that is expected to move into the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico. However, the latest runs of GFS and UKMET models
show the trough lifting out and provided little steering for Eta,
which causes a continued slow and erratic motion over the Gulf in
those models. The new track forecast shows a slower northward to
northeastward motion compared to the previous one from days 3-5 as a
compromise of the latest models and continuity. Due to the poor
model agreement beyond a couple of days, the track forecast at the
longer range is of low confidence, and large changes are possible if
the models converge toward the GFS/UKMET solutions.

The storm will have an opportunity to strengthen a little during
the next couple of days and it could become a hurricane as it moves
over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico Loop current and remains
in light-to-moderate wind shear conditions. However, there will be
a fair amount of dry air surrounding Eta, and that should limit the
amount of intensification. Beyond a couple of days, depending on
exactly where Eta is, the models show an increase in westerly
shear, which in combination with the dry air should cause a slow
decay. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous
one, and is also of low confidence since its unclear where Eta will
be located later in the week.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba,
Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into
central Florida. Life-threatening flash flooding will be possible
across inundated urban areas of southeast Florida today. Flash and
urban flooding will also be possible for Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas
and the remainder of southern Florida, along with potential minor
river flooding in central Florida.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the
Florida Keys, and south and central Florida today.

3. Water levels will gradually recede along portions of the
southern coast of the Florida peninsula and Keys. Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

4. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a
tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and
storm surge. Interests in this area should monitor the progress
of Eta and updates to the forecast this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 25.2N 82.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 24.6N 83.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 23.8N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 23.9N 85.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 24.8N 85.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 26.0N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 26.7N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 27.8N 84.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 29.4N 83.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#46 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:56 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2020

...ETA MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 83.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM NNE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for all of the
Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys, excluding the Dry Tortugas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 6 to 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the
progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radars near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 83.4
West. Eta is moving toward the southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and
this motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected to
continue through tonight. Little overall motion is forecast on
Tuesday and a slow northward motion is expected on Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Eta will continue to move away
from the Florida Keys and south Florida today, and will remain over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Wednesday.

Data from the aircraft and Doppler radars indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today and tonight.
Some slight strengthening is forecast on Tuesday into Wednesday,
followed by gradual weakening thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from the
aircraft is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Saturday morning:

The Bahamas: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with
isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including
the Keys: an additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm)), with isolated
maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm) in South Florida.

Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along
with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Life-threatening flash
flooding will be possible across saturated urban areas of southeast
Florida. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the
Bahamas and the remainder of southern and eastern Florida over the
next several days. Minor river flooding is also possible for
central Florida.

WIND: Gusty conditions will continue across the Florida Keys, south
and central Florida, and the northwestern Bahamas today. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in
Cuba tonight and Tuesday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible today over parts of south
Florida and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2020

Eta's overall appearance in satellite radar imagery has become quite
fragmented, with inner-core convection having become vertically
shallow and broken due to mid-level dry air entrainment. Some of the
recent Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flight-level data indicate
that dry air has worked way down to the 850-mb level based dewpoint
spreads of more than 8 deg C. In the northeastern quadrant, a large
curved convective band persists that has produced widespread
rainfall amounts exceeding 10 inches along with strong gusty winds
across portions of the southern Florida peninsula. However, even
that band of thunderstorms has become less pronounced in both
satellite radar imagery over the past few hours. Doppler velocities
over land and over water have also come decreased significantly, and
the latest reconnaissance flight-level (58 kt) and SFMR surface wind
data (49 kt) supports lowering the intensity to 50 kt. The decrease
in intensity is also supported by the gradual rise in the central
pressure, which is now up to 994 mb.

Eta has finally made the expected southwestward turn, and the
initial motion is now 235/12 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge across
the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and near the U.S. east coast is
expected to keep Eta moving southwestward for the next 24-36 hours,
accompanied by a steady decrease in forward speed. Steering currents
are forecast to collapse by 36-48 hours, causing Eta to possibly
stall and/or make a small loop just northwest of western Cuba. By 60
hours and beyond, a broad mid-latitude trough currently located over
the Rocky Mountains is forecast to move eastward and gradually erode
the portion of the ridge over the Gulf of Mexico, allowing Eta
slowly move northward to north-northeastward through 20 hours.
However, there remains considerable divergence between the global
models on days 4 and 5 with regards to how far north Eta will move,
with the ECMWF showing a more northward progression while the GFS
and UKMET models show the trough lifting out and not eroding the
ridge as much. For now, the official forecast track remains a
compromise of these two extremes, and shows a slow poleward
progression on days 3-5, similar to the consensus models TCVA and
NOAA-HCCA.

Eta could still re-strengthen some during the 24-48 hour period when
the cyclone will be moving over the warm waters of the Gulf of
Mexico Loop Current and the wind shear gradually decrease to less
than 10 kt. However, occasional intrusions of very dry air will
likely continue to plague the system, which would prevent any rapid
intensification from occurring and could keep Eta from regaining
hurricane status. By 48 hours and beyond, increasing vertical wind
shear and dry air should cause a gradual weakening of the cyclone
through end of the forecast period. The new NHC intensity forecast
is a little lower than the previous advisory, and closely follows
the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba,
the Bahamas, and southern and central Florida. Life-threatening
flash flooding will be possible across urban areas of southeast
Florida today. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for
Cuba, the Bahamas and the remainder of southern Florida, along with
potential minor river flooding in central Florida.

2. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a
tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and
storm surge. Interests in this area should monitor the progress of
Eta and updates to the forecast this week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 24.6N 83.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 23.9N 84.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 23.6N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 24.5N 85.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 25.6N 85.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 26.5N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 27.2N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 28.4N 84.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 29.6N 83.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#47 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:53 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 PM EST Mon Nov 09 2020

...ETA MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND STRENGTHEN SOME TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 84.8W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the
progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 84.8 West. Eta is moving
toward the southwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion with
some reduction in forward speed is expected to continue through
tonight. Little overall motion is forecast on Tuesday and a slow
northward motion is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Eta will remain over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico tonight through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening will be possible tonight and Tuesday. Gradual
weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday and then continue
through the end of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Saturday morning:

The Bahamas: An additional 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm), with
isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including
the Keys: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm)), with isolated
maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm) in South Florida.

Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along
with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash
flooding is possible across inundated urban areas of southeast
Florida today. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for
the Bahamas and the remainder of southern and eastern Florida over
the next several days.

WIND: Gusty conditions will continue across the Florida Keys, south
and central Florida, and the northwestern Bahamas today. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in
Cuba tonight and Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 PM EST Mon Nov 09 2020

Eta's convective pattern now consists of mainly a compact ring of
inner-core convection with cloud tops of -60C to -70C. The earlier
main outer convective band located in the northeast quadrant has
weakened considerably, and the inflow into that feature is now being
shunted westward into Eta's inner-core region. Visible and water
vapor satellite images also indicate that weak anticyclonic cirrus
outflow has recently developed over the inner core. The last recon
pass through Eta a few hours ago showed a pressure rise to 997 mb
that was followed by a pressure decrease to 995 mb on the last pass.
Both flight-level and SFMR-derived surface winds had also decreased
and only supported around 45 kt, which is the initial intensity used
for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is southwestward, or 235/14 kt. Mid- and
upper-level water vapor images show a cut-off low located over the
extreme northwestern Caribbean Sea near the Isle of Youth. This
feature, in conjunction with a deep-layer ridge extending across
Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, is expected to produce northeasterly
flow that will keep Eta moving southwestward for the next 24-36
hours. However, the cyclone will gradually slow down during that
time as a broad deep-layer trough moving across the central and
south-central U.S. weakens the ridge over the Gulf, causing Eta to
stall or make a small loop around 36 hours. By 48-60 hours and
beyond, the aforementioned trough is forecast to lift out to the
northeast, allowing at least some of the Gulf ridge to build back
in, slowing down Eta's poleward progress or even possibly trapping
the cyclone over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The global and
regional models are in very good agreement on the developing track
scenario through about 72 hours, and then diverge significantly
thereafter, with the bulk of the guidance taking a much weaker Eta
northwestward or northward into strong shear conditions. However,
the Navy COAMPS-TC model strengthens Eta to near major hurricane
status and takes the cyclone northeastward, while the HMON model
also intensifies the cyclone into a major hurricane, but leaves it
trapped over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The latter two
scenarios are considered to be outliers due to the abundance of very
dry air surrounding Eta and an expected increase in the deep-layer
shear to more than 25 kt by 96 and 120 hours. The new official
forecast track is to the left or west of the previous advisory
track, but not as far west as the consensus models, which take a
significantly weaker and more shallow cyclone toward the
north-central Gulf coast.

Some re-strengthening appears more likely now that Eta has shed a
lot of outer convective baggage and has become more compact, and
has developed a donut ring of inner-core convection and some modest
upper-level outflow in all quadrants. Eta's best opportunity for
intensification should come during the next 36 hours when the
cyclone will be moving over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico
Loop Current and the deep-layer vertical wind shear gradually
decreases to less than 10 kt. Although occasional intrusions of very
dry air will prevent rapid intensification from occurring, some
gradual strengthening seems to be in order given the other favorable
environmental conditions and the cyclone's new smaller size. By 48
hours and beyond, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air
entrainment should cause steady weakening of the cyclone through end
of the forecast period. However, if Eta takes a more northwestward
track like some of the NHC model guidance is indicating, then the
cyclone will get sheared more and weaken sooner than indicated in
the official forecast. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to
the previous advisory, and but is lower than intensity consensus
models IVCN and HCCA, which re-strengthen Eta to a 65-70 kt
hurricane.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba,
the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into central
Florida. Additional flash flooding is possible across inundated
urban areas of southeast Florida today. Flash and urban flooding
will also be possible for Cuba, the Bahamas and the remainder of
southern Florida over the next several days.

2. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a
tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and
storm surge. Interests in this area should monitor the progress of
Eta and updates to the forecast this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 23.7N 84.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 23.2N 85.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 23.4N 85.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 24.3N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 25.6N 85.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 26.5N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 27.2N 85.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 28.0N 85.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 28.6N 85.6W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#48 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:04 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2020

...ETA EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 85.2W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM NNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the
progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 85.2 West. Eta is moving
toward the southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion with
a reduction in forward speed is expected tonight. Little overall
motion is forecast on Tuesday and a slow northward motion is
expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Eta will remain over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
tonight through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening will be possible tonight and Tuesday. Gradual
weakening is expected to begin by late Wednesday and then continue
through the end of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Saturday morning:

The Bahamas: An additional 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm), with
isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including
the Keys: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with isolated
maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm) in South Florida.

Flash and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with
landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban
flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be
possible in South Florida tonight. Flash and urban flooding will
also be possible for the Bahamas and the remainder of southern and
eastern Florida over the next several days.

WIND: Gusty conditions will continue across the Florida Keys, south
and central Florida, and the northwestern Bahamas tonight. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in
Cuba tonight and Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Brown





Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2020

Eta's convective structure appears to be gradually becoming better
organized this evening. The center is located near the northern edge
of a band that wraps around the southeastern and southern portions
of the circulation. Recent subjective Dvorak data T-numbers were
3.0, which still support an initial intensity of 45 kt. With Eta's
structure gradually improving and a forecast for the cyclone to
remain over SSTs of around 28C and in generally low vertical wind
shear conditions, some re-strengthening is likely during the next
24-36 hours. Although the NHC intensity forecast shows Eta remaining
just below hurricane strength, there is a possibility that the storm
will briefly regain hurricane status over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico within the next day or so. By 48 hours, when the cyclone
moves over the east-central Gulf of Mexico, increasing vertical wind
shear and dry mid-level air are likely to result in weakening, and
like the previous forecast, the new NHC forecast indicates that Eta
could weaken to a tropical depression by the end of the period. Some
of the global model guidance suggests that Eta could weaken even
faster than indicated below after 72 hours.

Recent satellite fixes indicate that Eta is moving southwestward but
a little slower than before at around 8 kt. Eta should slow its
forward progress overnight and then meander over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday as steering current collapse. In 36-48
hours, Eta should begin moving northward between a mid-level ridge
over the western Atlantic and a broad trough over the central United
States. After 72 hours, the spread in the guidance increases when
Eta is expected to be weaker and be steered by the low-level flow.
Most of the guidance shows a northwestward to northward motion at
that time period but have varying forward speed. The NHC track shows
a slow north-northwest motion late in the period to account for
these differences. There is lower than normal confidence in the
latter portion of the track forecast given the large spread in the
guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba,
the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into central
Florida. Additional flash and urban flooding, especially across
previously inundated areas, will be possible in South Florida
tonight. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Cuba,
the Bahamas and the remainder of southern Florida over the next
several days.

2. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a
tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and
storm surge. Interests in this area should continue to monitor
the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 23.2N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 22.8N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 23.4N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 24.6N 85.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 25.8N 85.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 12/1200Z 26.6N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 27.0N 85.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 27.7N 85.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 29.0N 86.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#49 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 10, 2020 5:15 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
300 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

...ETA LINGERING JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
...RISK OF FLOODING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 85.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the
progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 85.5 West. Eta is
stationary, and little overall motion is forecast today, with a
slow northward motion is expected tonight through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, followed
by weakening likely starting on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
today and tonight:

Western Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm).

South Florida: an additional 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm)), with
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 20 inches (510 mm).

Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba, along
with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and
urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will
be possible in South Florida today and tonight.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm
Watch area in Cuba today.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Blake





Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
300 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

There hasn't been a lot of change to the cloud pattern of Eta
overnight, with the center apparently located on the northwestern
side of a small central dense overcast. Scatterometer data from
earlier indicated 35-40 kt winds, and with the typical undersampling
from that instrument, along with consensus 45-kt estimates from
TAFB/SAB, so Eta's initial wind speed is kept at 45 kt. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft should be in the storm this morning.

Eta is forecast to be in a low-to-moderate shear environment over
warm SSTs for the next couple of days. Gradual strengthening is
expected through early Thursday, with the main restrictive factor
being nearby dry air. After that time, increasing shear and
drier mid-level air are likely to cause Eta to weaken. The rate
of this weakening is pretty uncertain, and a lot depends on how
much Eta can re-intensify over the next couple of days. The new
forecast is similar to the previous one, which is quite close to
the consensus guidance.

The storm has basically become stationary overnight. Eta should
drift to north today due to steering flow changes with a nearby
upper-level low losing influence while ridging east of Florida
builds southward. A slow northward track is then anticipated for a
couple of days over the east-central Gulf of Mexico in this flow
pattern. Beyond that time, model guidance is in rather poor
agreement, ranging from a stronger system moving faster to the
northeast due to broad troughing over the south-central United
States, to a weaker tropical cyclone getting caught under a narrow
ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and turning west-southwestward. Since
the new forecast expects Eta to be weakening, the NHC forecast will
be west of the consensus and west of the previous track. I have
little confidence in the long-range track forecast due to its
seeming dependence on the intensity, and the wide spread in the
guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and
South Florida today and tonight. Additional flash and urban
flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be
possible in South Florida. Flash and urban flooding will also be
possible for western Cuba.

2. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a
tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and
storm surge. Interests in this area should continue to monitor
the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 22.9N 85.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 23.1N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 24.0N 85.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 25.0N 85.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 26.0N 85.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 26.8N 85.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 27.3N 85.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 28.8N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 30.0N 87.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#50 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 10, 2020 9:57 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

...ETA MEANDERING JUST OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN CUBA...
...RISK OF FLOODING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 85.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area today.

Interests along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the
progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 85.3 West. Eta has been
nearly stationary this morning, and little motion is expected today.
A slow northward motion is forecast to begin by this evening and
continue through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, followed
by weakening likely starting on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
today and tonight:

Western Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm).

South Florida: an additional 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm), with
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 20 inches (510 mm).

Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba, along
with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and
urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will
be possible in South Florida today and tonight.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm
Watch area in Cuba today.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern and western
Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart





Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

A significant increase in deep convection has occurred since the
previous advisory this morning, including a CDO-like feature with
cloud tops of -85C to -87C very near the low-level center. However,
recent passive microwave satellite images indicate that the center
is displaced to the northwest of the coldest cloud tops due to
modest northwesterly mid- and upper-level vertical wind shear. The
initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt, which is based on an
average of Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of T3.0/45 kt from
TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB.

Although the initial motion estimate is 360/02 kt, Eta has
essentially been stationary for the past 9 hours or so. Radar data
from Casablanca, Cuba, and satellite fixes suggest that Eta has been
making a small cyclonic/counter-clockwise loop within the larger
gyre in which the small center is embedded. Until the gyre breaks
down or moves northward, there will be little poleward motion by Eta
today. By tonight, however, the global and regional models are in
good agreement on a broad mid-tropospheric trough moving eastward
across the central and eastern United States, which is expected to
erode a subtropical ridge to the north of the Eta, allowing both the
larger gyre and Eta to move slowly northward. This steering pattern
is expected to continue through about 72 hours. Thereafter, the
model guidance diverges significantly between motions ranging from
westward (GFS/GFS-ensemble) to northward (ECMWF) to northeastward
(COAMPS-TC). The 96-120 hour motions are directly related to the
strength of the cyclone, with a much weaker Eta forecast to move
westward and a stronger hurricane solution moving northeastward.
The latter scenario seems unlikely given that the vertical shear is
forecast to increase from the northwest and west at more than 25 kt,
which acts to weaken Eta and also impart a slight eastward tug on
the system. As a result, the official forecast track calls for Eta
to basically move slowly northward through the 120-h forecast
period and gradually weaken into a shallow cyclone that drifts
northward. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the consensus models
TVCA, NOAA-HCCA, and the Florida Superensemble (FSSE).

Eta is expected to remain in a low-to-moderate vertical wind shear
environment and over warm SSTs of 27-28 deg C for the next couple of
days. Although the surrounding environment is expected to be
somewhat dry, the other two favorable environmental factors should
allow for some strengthening into Thursday, Thereafter, increasing
shear from the northwest and west, along with drier mid-level air
and cooler SSTs are likely to cause Eta to weaken. The rate of this
weakening remains uncertain, and depends heavily on how much Eta
re-intensifies over the next couple of days. The new intensity
forecast is essentially the same as the previous advisory, and is a
little below the consensus models IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE, all of which
make Eta a hurricane again by 36 hours.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and
South Florida today and tonight. Additional flash and urban
flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be
possible in South Florida. Flash and urban flooding will also be
possible for western Cuba.

2. Eta could approach the northeastern or north-central U.S. Gulf
Coast later this week as a tropical storm, and possibly bring
impacts from rain, wind, and storm surge. Interests in this area
should continue to monitor the progress of Eta and updates to the
forecast this week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 22.7N 85.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 23.1N 85.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 24.0N 85.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 25.0N 85.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 25.9N 85.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 13/0000Z 26.6N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 27.2N 85.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 28.6N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 30.1N 86.4W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#51 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:54 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
300 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS AND A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...RISK OF FLOODING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 85.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Dry Tortugas.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the west coast of
Florida from Englewood northward to Suwannee River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Suwannee River Florida
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located by satellite and Cuban radar data near latitude 23.2 North,
longitude 85.1 West. Eta is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11
km/h). A motion toward the north or north-northeast is forecast
through Wednesday night, followed by a turn toward the northeast on
Thursday. On the forecast track the center of Eta will move parallel
to but offshore of the Florida west coast on Thursday and move near
or over Apalachee Bay Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast through Thursday morning, and Eta
could be near hurricane strength by Wednesday night or Thursday
morning. Gradual weakening is expected to begin Thursday afternoon
or evening.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
today and tonight:

Western Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm).

South Florida: Isolated additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 15 to
20 inches.

Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through
Thursday:

Portions of West Florida and the Sun Coast, including the Tampa Bay
area: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated totals of 4 inches.

Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba, along
with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and
urban flooding will be possible in South Florida, especially across
previously inundated areas, and eventually along portions of West
Florida and the Sun Coast. Flash and urban flooding will also be
possible for western Cuba.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas
overnight and early Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area in Cuba tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area along the Florida west coast by Thursday afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern and western
Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
300 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

Eta's convective structure has changed little since the previous
advisory. A CDO-like feature with cloud tops colder than -70C has
persisted, with some overshooting tops of -80C to -85C located east
and southeast of the center. Recent passive microwave satellite
data indicates that Eta is still sheared from the northwest, with
an intermittent mid-level eye feature showing up. Satellite
classifications have essentially remained unchanged, with SAB
reporting 45-55 kt and TAFB reporting 55 kt. The initial intensity
remains at 50 kt based on a blend of these satellite
classifications and a UW-CIMSS SATCON estimates of 45-48 kt.

The initial motion estimate is now northward, or 360/06 kt. The
biggest surprise is the large eastward shift in all of the NHC model
guidance, which was possibly due at least in part to all of the
dropsondes that the NOAA G-IV jet aircraft dropped around Eta
earlier this morning, All of the guidance is now in good agreement
on a broad, deep-layer trough moving eastward across the
south-central and southeastern United States, which will erode the
subtropical ridge to the north of Eta that has been impeding
Eta's poleward progress he past couple of days. This generally
northward to northeastward steering pattern is expected to persist
through the entire 120-h forecast period, with only slight shifts
east or west of he current forecast track due to how vertically deep
Eta remains when it reaches the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and
Apalachee Bay in a few days. The current forecast track maintains
Eta as at least a moderate tropical cyclone through the period, with
only a slight bend back toward the northwest when the system is
expected to interact with an approaching frontal system. The new NHC
track forecast has been shifted about 150 n mi east of the previous
advisory track at 96 and 120 hours, and further eastward shifts in
the track may be required, closer to the consensus models TCVA/TVCN
and NOAA-HCCA.

Eta is forecast to remain in a low-to-moderate vertical wind shear
environment and over SSTs of at least 27 deg C for the next 36 hours
or so. Intermittent entrainment of dry mid-level air should prevent
any rapid strengthening from occurring, but Eta could still become a
hurricane between in 24 to 36 h before more significant shear begins
to affect the cyclone. By day 3 and beyond, increasing northwesterly
vertical wind shear combined with cooler SSTs should cause Eta to
weaken. The new intensity forecast is essentially the same as the
previous advisory, and is a little below the consensus models IVCN,
HCCA, and FSSE, all of which make Eta a hurricane again by 36 hours.

Due to the expected northwesterly shear after 36 hours, the 34-kt
wind radii were expanded in the eastern semicircle, which is the
side of the cyclone where most of the deep convection and associated
stronger winds will be located. Given this and the eastward
adjustment to the track forecast, a Tropical Storm Watch has been
issued for portions of the Florida west coast, and a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible along portions of the
Florida Gulf Coast by Thursday afternoon, and a Tropical Storm Watch
has been issued. Interests elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast
should monitor the progress of Eta, as additional watches may be
needed tonight.

2. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and
South Florida today and tonight, then potentially spread up the west
coast of the Florida Peninsula Wednesday through Thursday.
Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South
Florida, especially across previously inundated areas, and
eventually along portions of West Florida and the Sun Coast. Flash
and urban flooding will also be possible for western Cuba.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 23.2N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 24.1N 84.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 25.6N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 26.9N 84.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 27.9N 84.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 13/0600Z 28.7N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 29.1N 84.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 29.7N 84.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 30.7N 84.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#52 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 10, 2020 9:55 pm

TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2020

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT ETA IS A LITTLE
STRONGER...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND STORM SURGE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 84.5W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Florida west coast
from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Florida west coast from
Bonita Beach to the Steinhatchee River, including Tampa Bay and
Charlotte Harbor.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Gulf coast
from north of the Suwannee River to the Aucilla River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida, including Tampa Bay
and Charlotte Harbor

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of Eta. Additional warnings may be required along
portions of the Florida Gulf coast early Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 84.5 West. Eta is moving
toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward the
north-northeast is forecast through Thursday. On the forecast track
the center of Eta will move closer to but offshore of the southwest
coast of Florida on Wednesday, approach the west-central coast of
Florida Wednesday night, and move inland over the northern portion
of the Florida peninsula on Thursday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast through Wednesday,
and Eta could be near hurricane strength by Wednesday morning.
Gradual weakening is expected to begin Wednesday night or early
Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance
aircraft data is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Steinhatchee River to Bonita Beach, FL including Tampa Bay and
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall through
tonight:

Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm).

South Florida: Isolated additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 15 to 20
inches.

Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through
Friday:

West Florida into the eastern Florida Panhandle and portions of
North Florida: 1 to 3 inches, with isolated totals of 5 inches.

Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba through
tonight, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South
Florida tonight, especially across previously inundated areas, and
eventually across portions of west Florida, the eastern Florida
Panhandle, and north Florida Wednesday through Friday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas
overnight and early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west
coast by late Wednesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in
the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area in Cuba tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2020

Eta has been maintaining a large cluster of deep convection over the
northeastern portion of its circulation this evening. NWS Doppler
radar data from Key West is showing a well-defined mid-level
circulation in that area, but NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data so
far still indicates that the low-level center is located near the
southwestern portion of the convective mass. However, it is
possible that the center will re-form closer to the mid-level
center overnight. The plane has measured peak 850-mb flight-level
winds of 67 kt, and SFMR winds of 52 kt. Based on these data the
initial intensity has been raised to 55 kt.

Eta's initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 015/8 kt. There has
once again been a significant eastward shift in the 18Z dynamical
model guidance, with the GFS, HWRF, and UKMET models all showing a
faster north-northeastward motion toward the Florida west coast. As
a result, the NHC forecast has again been shifted eastward and lies
near the TVCA multi-model consensus through 36 h. After that time,
the NHC track is slower and west of the bulk of the consensus aids
as the ECMWF still shows Eta weakening and lingering near the
Florida Big Bend. While the new track has been shifted
significantly eastward after 36 h or so, some continuity with the
previous forecast is maintained with a slower northward motion
between the two model camps. While there is increasing confidence in
the faster north-northeastward motion in the short-term, there is
still considerable uncertainty by 48 hours and beyond, and further
adjustments to the track forecast could be required overnight.

Some additional strengthening is likely overnight and Wednesday
while Eta remains over warm water and within an area of
low-to-moderate vertical wind shear. If the center re-forms closer
to the deep convection, Eta could re-gain hurricane status within
the next 12-24 hours. After that time, increasing southwesterly
shear and cooler SSTs are likely to result in some weakening. The
updated NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS and HCCA model
guidance.

Given the eastward shift in the track and the expected faster motion
of Eta, a Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are being
issued for a portion of the west coast of Florida. Additional
warnings could be required early Wednesday.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is possible Thursday along portions
of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River,
including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Residents in this area
should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected by late Wednesday along
portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Suwanee
River, and are possible Thursday from Suwannee River to Aucilla
River. Interests elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast should
monitor the progress of Eta, as additional watches and warnings may
be needed overnight.

3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and
south Florida through tonight, and spread northward across portions
of west Florida, the eastern Florida Panhandle, and north Florida
Wednesday through Friday. Additional flash and urban flooding is
possible in south Florida tonight, especially across previously
inundated areas, and eventually across portions of west Florida, the
eastern Florida Panhandle, and north Florida Wednesday through
Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 23.8N 84.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 25.0N 84.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 26.5N 84.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 27.7N 83.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 28.8N 83.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 13/1200Z 29.7N 82.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 14/0000Z 30.3N 82.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 15/0000Z 30.8N 82.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#53 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 11, 2020 4:40 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
AS ETA INTENSIFIES FURTHER...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 84.1W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the west coast of Florida
from Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida, including Tampa Bay
and Charlotte Harbor

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of Eta. Additional warnings may be required along
portions of the Florida Peninsula today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 84.1 West. Eta is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward the
north-northeast is forecast through Thursday. On the forecast track
the center of Eta will move closer to but offshore of the southwest
coast of Florida today, approach the west-central coast of Florida
Wednesday night, and move inland over the northern portion of the
Florida peninsula on Thursday. Eta is expected to move
northeastward into the western Atlantic late Thursday or early
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Eta is expected to be near or at hurricane
strength tonight as it approaches the west coast of Florida, with
rapid weakening expected after landfall on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Steinhatchee River to Bonita Beach, FL including Tampa Bay and
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals:

Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) on
Wednesday, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25
inches (765 mm).

West Florida: through Friday, 2 to 4 inches, with maximum storm
total accumulations of 6 inches.

North and South Florida: an additional 1 to 2 inches, with isolated
maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches in North Florida and
20 inches in South Florida.

Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba on
Wednesday, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South
Florida, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash,urban,
and isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions of
West and North Florida through Friday.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area by early
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas
through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast by
Wednesday afternoon. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in
the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area in Cuba for the next few hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Blake




Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

Eta has become better organized over the past few hours, with a
better-defined eye feature on the Key West radar. Satellite
pictures also show a more symmetric presentation and a large
cluster of deep convection near the center. Radar data has shown
increasing wind speeds in the mid-levels, which supports
conservatively raising the initial wind speed to 60 kt. The
current position is southwest of the eye feature on radar, assuming
some shear remains, but a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to be in the storm in a few hours to acquire better data
on both the initial position and intensity.

It appears that the center of Eta has re-formed to the north-
northeast tonight, so an initial motion is hard to determine,
but is estimated to be northward at about 10 kt. Remarkably, model
guidance has become well clustered just east of the previous
forecast track as it seems apparent that Eta will now recurve
around the ridge toward the Florida Big Bend region and out into
the western Atlantic Ocean. The biggest change is that the models
are faster than before, and the official forecast follows that
lead, along with a small eastward forecast adjustment, near or just
east of the model consensus.

Further strengthening is possible today while the shear remains
low-to-moderate. However, all of the models do show increasing
shear by tonight, and the NHC forecast continues to call for
weakening of Eta as it approaches the west coast of Florida.
However, it would take only a small forecast error to allow Eta to
come ashore as a hurricane, and hence a Hurricane Watch has been
issued this morning. Rapid weakening is anticipated once Eta makes
landfall, and strong shear should prevent any regeneration over the
western Atlantic Ocean. The new forecast is a little higher than
the previous advisory, mostly due to current trends, and is closer
to the more bullish HMON and HWRF models.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is possible early Thursday along
portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to
Steinhatchee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.
Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local
officials.

2. Hurricane-force winds are possible along portions of the west
coast of Florida from Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown by early
Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected by late Wednesday
along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to
Suwanee River, and are possible Thursday from Suwannee River to
Aucilla River. Interests elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast
should monitor the progress of Eta, as additional watches and
warnings may be needed today.

3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and
South Florida and spread northward across portions of West and North
Florida Wednesday through Friday. Additional flash and urban
flooding will be possible in South Florida on Wednesday, especially
across previously inundated areas, and across portions of West
Florida through Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 25.0N 84.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 27.9N 83.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 29.2N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 13/0600Z 30.2N 81.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 13/1800Z 30.9N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 31.0N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#54 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 11, 2020 6:46 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 44A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
700 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

...NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE ETA
A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS APPROACHING SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 83.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WSW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida, including Tampa Bay
and Charlotte Harbor

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of Eta. Additional warnings may be required along
portions of the Florida Peninsula today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located by a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather
radars near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 83.8 West. Eta is moving
toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast
track, the center of Eta will move closer to but offshore of the
southwest coast of Florida today, approach the west-central coast of
Florida tonight, and move inland over the northern portion of the
Florida peninsula on Thursday. Eta is expected to move
northeastward into the western Atlantic late Thursday or early
Friday.

Reports from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are
near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is expected to be
near or at hurricane strength tonight as it approaches the west
coast of Florida, with rapid weakening expected after landfall on
Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A University of South Florida COMPS buoy just
southeast of Eta's center recently measured a sustained wind of 49
mph (79 km/h) and a gust to 65 mph 104 (km/h). Doppler radars
indicate that tropical-storm-force winds are located just offshore
the southwestern coast of Florida. Across the lower Florida Keys, a
sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (90 km/h)
were recently reported at Sand Key.

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Steinhatchee River to Bonita Beach, FL including Tampa Bay and
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals:

Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) on
Wednesday, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25
inches (765 mm).

West Florida: through Friday, 2 to 4 inches, with maximum storm
total accumulations of 6 inches.

North and South Florida: an additional 1 to 2 inches, with isolated
maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches in North Florida and
20 inches in South Florida.

Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba on
Wednesday, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South
Florida, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash,urban,
and isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions of
West and North Florida through Friday.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area by early
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas
through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast by this
afternoon. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area
along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area in Cuba for the next few hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#55 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 11, 2020 7:43 am

Hurricane Eta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
735 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

...ETA BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Doppler radar data
indicate that Eta has re-strengthened into a hurricane offshore the
southwestern coast of Florida, with maximum sustained winds of 75
mph (120 km/h), with higher gusts.


SUMMARY OF 735 AM EST...1235 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 83.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WSW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#56 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 11, 2020 11:10 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Advisory Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

...HEAVY SQUALLS WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ONSHORE
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA...
...STORM SURGE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 83.7W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM WSW OF PORT CHARLOTTE FLORIDA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the Florida west coast
from Suwannee River to Bonita Beach, including Tampa Bay and
Charlotte Harbor.

The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for Cuba.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach to Suwanee River Florida, including Tampa Bay
and Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Steinhatchee River to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
this case within 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in this case within 24 hours. For a depiction of areas
at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of Eta. Additional warnings may be required along
portions of the Florida Peninsula today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located
near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 83.7 West. Eta is moving toward
the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast track,
the center of Eta will move closer to but offshore of the southwest
coast of Florida today, approach the west-central coast of Florida
tonight, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida
peninsula on Thursday. Eta is expected to move northeastward into
the western Atlantic late Thursday or early Friday.

Data from NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta
could be near hurricane strength tonight as it approaches the west
coast of Florida, with rapid weakening expected after landfall on
Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km), mainly
northeast of the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 115 miles (185 km). A sustained wind of 33 mph (53
km/h) and a gust to 42 mph (68 km/h) were recently measured by a
Weatherflow observing station on Sanibel Island. Across the lower
Florida Keys, a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 49
mph (91 km/h) were recently reported at Sand Key.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River to Boca Grande, FL including Tampa Bay...3-5 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte
Harbor...2-4 ft
Steinhatchee River to Anclote River...2-4 ft
Bonita Beach to Flamingo...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals:

Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) today, with
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm).

West and central Florida: through Friday, 2 to 4 inches, with
maximum storm total accumulations of 6 inches.

North and South Florida: an additional 1 to 2 inches, with isolated
maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches in North Florida and
20 inches in South Florida.

Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba on
Wednesday, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South
Florida, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash,urban,
and isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions of
West and North Florida through Friday.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area tonight
and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Dry Tortugas through early afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west
coast by this afternoon. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in
the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts
of western and central Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

Eta became much better organized between 0900-1000 UTC this morning,
including the formation of a well-defined, closed circular eye about
20-25 nmi wide. However, since then the satellite and radar
signature have become more ragged as dry air has entrained into the
western semicircle of the cyclone and has also penetrated into the
inner-core region, resulting in a significant degradation of the
convection in that portion of Eta's circulation. A couple of hours
ago, a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft penetrated the remnant eye
feature and measured a central pressure of 984-983 mb, and also
measured 850-mb maximum flight-level winds of 83-85 kt east of the
center just outside of a deep convective band. WSR-88D Doppler
radar data from Tampa Bay (KTBW) indicated a long fetch of Doppler
velocities of 80-88 kt at 13,500 ft directly above and east of the
aircraft report, and this was within a band of strong convection
characterized by radar reflectivities of 45-49 dBZ. Based on the
combination of the wind data and the relatively low central
pressure, Eta was upgraded to hurricane status at 1200 UTC.

The initial motion estimate is north-northeastward, or 015/09 kt.
The latest NHC model guidance is excellent agreement on Eta moving
north-northeastward for the next 24 hours around the the western
periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge that extends westward
across the western Atlantic to just off the Florida east coast.
Thereafter, the cyclone will move north of the ridge axis and come
under the influence of southwesterly to westerly mid- to upper-level
flow associated with an approaching cold front, which should result
in a faster northeastward motion. By 72 hours, if not sooner, Eta is
forecast to merge with the aforementioned frontal system off of the
southeastern United States. The new official track forecast is
similar to the previous advisory track, and lies just a tad east or
to the right of the consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE.

It is quite possible that Eta has peaked in intensity based on the
rapid erosion of the convective pattern and an eye feature no longer
evident in radar or passive microwave satellite imagery. However,
there still remains a band of strong convection in the northeastern
quadrant that contains Doppler radar velocity values of 80-88 kt
between 6000-9000 ft, which corresponds to equivalent surface winds
of at least 65 kt. As long as that feature persists, hurricane-force
winds are possible along immediate coastal areas within the
hurricane watch area. The latest GFS-and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity
guidance shows significantly drier air wrapping into the center by
24 hours, along with the vertical wind shear increasing to more than
20 kt from the west at that time. That combination of unfavorable
environmental parameters is expected to lead to gradual weakening
until landfall occurs in about 24 hours, followed by rapid weakening
after landfall. Eta is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by
60 hours due to even stronger wind shear, and dissipate by 96 hours
due to frontal interaction.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Residents in this area
should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane-force winds are possible along portions of the west
coast of Florida from Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown this evening
and early Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected later
today along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to
Suwanee River, and are possible early Thursday from Suwannee River
to Aucilla River. Interests elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast
should monitor the progress of Eta.

3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and
south Florida and spread northward across portions of west and north
Florida today through Friday. Additional flash and urban flooding
will be possible in South Florida today, especially across
previously inundated areas, and across portions of west and central
Florida today through Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 26.2N 83.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 27.5N 83.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 28.9N 82.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR FLORIDA COAST
36H 13/0000Z 30.5N 81.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 13/1200Z 31.6N 79.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 14/0000Z 32.5N 76.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/1200Z 34.1N 73.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#57 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 11, 2020 12:59 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 45A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
100 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT ETA HAS
WEAKENED BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 83.7W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSW OF TARPON SPRINGS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach to Suwanee River Florida, including Tampa Bay
and Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Steinhatchee River to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
this case within 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in this case within 24 hours. For a depiction of areas
at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of Eta. Additional warnings may be required along
portions of the Florida Peninsula today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located by reconnaissance aircraft, Doppler radars, and satellites
near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 83.7 West. Eta is moving toward
the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast track,
the center of Eta will move closer to but just offshore of the coast
of west-central coast of Florida today and tonight, and move inland
over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Eta
is expected to move northeastward into the western Atlantic late
Thursday or early Friday.

Data from the aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate
that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110
km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected as Eta
approaches the west coast of Florida tonight, followed by rapid
weakening after landfall occurs on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km),
mainly northeast through southeast of the center. A wind gust to 40
mph (64 km/h) was recently reported in Venice Beach, Florida, while
a gust to 45 mph (72 km/h) was reported by a buoy just offshore
Venice Beach.

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the
reconnaissance aircraft was 990 mb (29.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River to Boca Grande, FL including Tampa Bay...3-5 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte
Harbor...2-4 ft
Steinhatchee River to Anclote River...2-4 ft
Bonita Beach to Flamingo...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals:

Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) today, with
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm).

West and central Florida: through Friday, 2 to 4 inches, with
maximum storm total accumulations of 6 inches.

North and South Florida: an additional 1 to 2 inches, with isolated
maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches in North Florida and
20 inches in South Florida.

Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba on
Wednesday, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South
Florida, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash,
urban, and isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions
of West and North Florida through Friday.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area tonight
and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Dry Tortugas through early afternoon. Tropical storm conditions will
end across the Dry Tortugas this afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the
Florida west coast by this afternoon. Tropical Storm conditions are
possible in the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region by
Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts
of western and central Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#58 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 11, 2020 4:02 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT ETA HAS
CHANGED LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 83.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch for portions of the west coast of Florida has
been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Dry
Tortugas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach to Suwanee River Florida, including Tampa Bay
and Charlotte Harbor

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Steinhatchee River to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 6 to 12 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
this case within 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in this case within 24 hours. For a depiction of areas
at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located by reconnaissance aircraft, Doppler radars, and satellites
near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 83.6 West. Eta is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue overnight, followed by a turn toward the
north-northeast and northeast Thursday morning. On the forecast
track, the center of Eta will move closer to but just offshore of
the west-central coast of Florida tonight, and move inland over the
northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Eta is
expected to move northeastward into the western Atlantic late
Thursday and early Friday.

Data from the aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is expected as Eta approaches the west coast
of Florida tonight, followed by rapid weakening after landfall
occurs on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A wind gust to 60 mph (96 km/h) was reported this
afternoon at Punta Gorda, Florida, while a gust to 55 mph (89 km/h)
was reported St. Petersburg.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River to Boca Grande, FL including Tampa Bay...3-5 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte
Harbor...2-4 ft
Steinhatchee River to Anclote River...2-4 ft
Bonita Beach to Flamingo...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals:

Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) through
Wednesday, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25
inches (765 mm).

West and central Florida, through Thursday: 2 to 4 inches, with
maximum storm total accumulations of 6 inches.

North and South Florida, through Thursday: An additional 1 to 2
inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches
in North Florida and 20 inches in South Florida.

Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba through
Wednesday, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South
Florida through Thursday, especially across previously inundated
areas. Flash,urban, and isolated minor river flooding is expected
across portions of West and North Florida through Thursday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area along the Florida west coast by this afternoon and
evening. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area
along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts
of western and central Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

Almost as quickly as Eta regained hurricane status, it then lost it
shortly thereafter. Dry air entrainment eroded most of the
significant convection around the center this afternoon until a
slight resurgence recently developed. However, the overall
convective pattern has changed little with the bulk of the
convection located primarily northeast through southeast of the
center. The last recon pass through Eta showed that the central
pressure had increased to 990 mb. Recent Doppler velocities of
around 70 kt between 5000-6000 ft east of the center supports
surface winds of about 56-58 kt, so the 1800Z intensity of 60 kt
will also be kept for the 21Z advisory intensity.

The initial motion estimate is northward, or 010/10 kt. Eta is
expected to move between north and north-northeastward tonight as
the cyclone rounds the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge to
the east. The new NHC model guidance remains in excellent
agreement on Eta turning northeastward after 12 hours, with the
cyclone making landfall along the western coast of the northern
Florida peninsula in the region from Cedar Key to Crystal River.
Eta is then expected to accelerate northeastward across northern
Florida as a weakening tropical cyclone, and emerge over the western
Atlantic by late Thursday morning or early afternoon. By 72 hours,
if not sooner, Eta is forecast to merge with a frontal system off of
the southeastern United States. The new official track forecast is
similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of
the consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE.

Eta will be moving over progressively cooler waters during the next
12 hours, with SSTs decreasing to less than 25 deg C just before the
cyclone makes landfall along the Florida coast. The cooler waters,
in conjunction with continued dry air entrainment and increasing
westerly vertical wind shear, should result in at least gradual
weakening until landfall occurs, followed by more rapid weakening as
Eta moves over the northern Florida peninsula. Although the
official forecast calls for Eta to be a tropical storm as it nears
the northeast coast of Florida, a Tropical Watch or Warning are not
required at this time since any tropical-storm-force will likely be
occurring over water and not inland or along the coast due to Eta's
poor convective structure that is expected at that time. Eta is
forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 60 hours due to even
stronger wind shear, and dissipate by 72 hours due to frontal
interaction.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Residents in this area
should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected this evening and tonight
along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to
Suwanee River, and are possible tonight and early Thursday from
Suwannee River to Aucilla River. Interests elsewhere along the
Florida Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Eta.

3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue to spread northward across
west and central Florida through Thursday. Additional flash and
urban flooding will be possible in south Florida through Thursday,
especially across previously inundated areas. Flash, urban, and
isolated minor river flooding are expected across portions of west
and north Florida through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 27.3N 83.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 28.6N 83.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 30.4N 81.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 13/0600Z 32.0N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 13/1800Z 33.8N 75.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 36.0N 69.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/1800Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#59 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:50 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

...ETA CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS
OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 83.4W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NW OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WNW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from the
Flagler/Volusia County Florida line northward to St. Andrews Sound
Georgia.

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Boca Grande Florida has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach to Suwanee River Florida, including Tampa Bay
and Charlotte Harbor

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Boca Grande to Suwannee River Florida
* Flagler/Volusia County Florida line northward to St. Andrews
Sound Georgia.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Steinhatchee River to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 6 to 12 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
this case within 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in this case within 24 hours. For a depiction of areas
at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 83.4 West. Eta is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue overnight, followed by a turn toward the
north-northeast and northeast Thursday morning. On the forecast
track, the center of Eta will move near but just offshore of the
west-central coast of Florida during the next few hours, and move
inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on
Thursday morning. Eta is expected to move northeastward into the
western Atlantic late Thursday and early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is expected as Eta approaches the west coast
of Florida tonight, followed by more rapid weakening after landfall
occurs on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. Albert Whitted Airport near St. Petersburg
recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a gust of
52 mph (84 km/h). A Weatherflow site in Tampa Bay recently measured
sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust of 59 mph (94 km/h).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River to Boca Grande, FL including Tampa Bay...3-5 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte
Harbor...2-4 ft
Steinhatchee River to Anclote River...2-4 ft
Bonita Beach to Flamingo...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals:

West and central Florida, through Thursday: 2 to 4 inches, with
maximum storm total accumulations of 6 inches.

North and South Florida, through Thursday: An additional 1 to 2
inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches
in North Florida and 20 to 25 inches in South Florida.

Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South
Florida through Thursday, especially across previously inundated
areas. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is expected
across portions of West and North Florida through Thursday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area along the Florida west coast through Thursday morning.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the
Florida Big Bend region on Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible overnight over parts of
western and central Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

Deep convection intensified over the northern portion of the
circulation of Eta over the past few hours, however the overall
cloud pattern has not become better organized this evening.
Adjusted flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum
winds are near 55 kt, with the central pressure holding about
steady for now. Since the storm will be moving over progressively
cooler waters, with strong west-southwesterly shear and some
incursions of drier air, gradual weakening is likely up to landfall
tomorrow morning. A more rapid weakening is likely after the center
crosses the coast tomorrow. The dynamical guidance does not
indicate significant restrengthening after Eta emerges into the
Atlantic within 24 hours, although some baroclinic forcing could
allow the system to maintain its intensity for awhile. The
cyclone is likely to be absorbed by a frontal zone in 60-72 hours if
not sooner.

Center fixes indicate that the motion continues to be just a little
to the east of due north, or 010/10 kt. A slight turn toward the
right is expected soon, and over the next couple of days Eta should
move north-northeastward to northeastward, ahead of a broad
mid-level trough, until dissipation. The official track forecast
follows the general trajectory of the simple and corrected
dynamical model consensus, but is somewhat slower than the consensus
guidance in deference to the latest GFS prediction.


Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Residents in this area
should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected tonight and early
Thursday along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach
to the Suwanee River, and are possible tonight on Thursday from the
Suwannee River to the Aucilla River. Interests elsewhere along the
Florida Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Eta.

3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue to spread northward across
West and Central Florida through Thursday. Additional flash and
urban flooding will be possible in South Florida through Thursday,
especially across previously inundated areas. Flash, urban, and
isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions of West
and North Florida through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 28.3N 83.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 29.7N 82.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 13/0000Z 31.8N 79.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 13/1200Z 33.7N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 35.5N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 14/1200Z 37.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: ETA - Advisories

#60 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 12, 2020 4:31 am

TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...ETA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA...
...STILL PRODUCING DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 83.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning south of the middle of Longboat Key has
been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Warning between Bonita Beach and Middle of Longboat
Key, Florida, including Charlotte Harbor, has been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Middle of Longboat Key to Suwannee River Florida, including Tampa
Bay.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Middle of Longboat Key to Suwannee River Florida
* Flagler/Volusia County Florida line northward to St. Andrews
Sound Georgia.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
this case within 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This
is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 83.0 West. Eta is moving
toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). Eta should make
landfall soon, move across northeastern Florida today and emerge
into the western Atlantic this afternoon. The cyclone is expected
to accelerate over the western Atlantic and move parallel to, but
offshore of the Carolinas before heading well east of the
Mid-Atlantic coast by late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Eta is expected to weaken after landfall but
could re-intensify as a non-tropical cyclone on Thursday and Friday
before becoming absorbed by a larger non-tropical cyclone on
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A National Ocean Service station near Cedar Key
recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a gust of
50 mph (81 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches)
based on surface observations from Cedar Key.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Suwannee River to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Tampa
Bay...2-4 ft

Middle of Longboat Key to Bonita Beach, FL including
Charlotte Harbor...1-3 ft

Bonita Beach to Flamingo, FL...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous
waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the
surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Eta will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain
across portions of the Florida Peninsula through today, with
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 20 to 25 inches in
South Florida.

Localized flash and urban flooding will be possible across the
Florida Peninsula today, especially across previously inundated
areas. Minor river flooding is expected across portions of west
Florida lasting into the weekend.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area along the Florida west coast through this morning, and
in the warning area along the east coast starting in the next few
hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the Florida
Gulf Coast today and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Blake





Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

Satellite images indicate that Eta has lost most of its central
deep convection over the past several hours, with the radar center
becoming poorly defined and decreasing winds aloft noted. The last
Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission found winds to support about 50
kt, and with the continued loss of organization, the current wind
speed is lowered to 45 kt. The tropical cyclone should be making
landfall in the Cedar Key area soon.

Eta is forecast to weaken over its short passage over the Florida
peninsula later today, and over the western Atlantic tonight due to
strong shear. There has been a change in some of the guidance
showing the tropical cyclone re-gaining strength as a non-tropical
low after 24 hours due to a more favorable positioning with the
next mid-latitude trough near the Great Lakes on Friday. The
strongest solutions are seen in the UKMET and ECMWF models, which
indicate even storm-force winds are possible in a few days. I'd
rather wait one more cycle to see if this trend continues but, as a
compromise, the new forecast shows some re-strengthening as an
extratropical cyclone and reverses any former weakening trend.

The storm is moving a little faster to the northeast this morning.
Eta should accelerate even more in that direction later today as it
becomes steered by the faster middle-latitude flow. The new
forecast shows a more rapid forward speed than the previous
advisory, which is related to the ECMWF/UKMET model solutions of
Eta showing some extratropical intensification and staying
coherent, rather than shearing out as a weak low like the GFS. Eta
should merge with a large non-tropical low in 2 to 3 days.


Key Messages:

1. There remains a danger of life-threatening storm surge along
portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from the Middle of Longboat Key
to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay. Residents in this area
should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in the warning area
along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast during the next few
hours, and in the warning area on the east coast later today.

3. Localized bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact
portions of the Florida Peninsula today, resulting in isolated flash
and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas.
Minor river flooding is expected across portions of west Florida
lasting into the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 29.1N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 30.6N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 32.6N 78.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 35.2N 73.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 14/0600Z 38.0N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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