WPAC: ETAU - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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WPAC: ETAU - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:23 pm

92W.INVEST


92W.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.10N.145E.


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Last edited by Hayabusa on Tue Nov 10, 2020 6:37 am, edited 6 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#2 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:42 pm

So which got tagged? The weaker model storm or the stronger model storm the GFS is showing?
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 05, 2020 12:24 am

12z EURO makes this the stronger out of the two. GFS the weaker of the two.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#4 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Nov 05, 2020 12:39 am

This could be a concern if it's able to get going. Lots of fuel out there and it won't be sheared by a 170kt monster like Atsani was
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:40 am

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#6 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:21 am

I don't know if this is the same LPA the JMA is showing, the difference between the two fix is 477 km
WWJP27 RJTD 050600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 050600.
WARNING VALID 060600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 07N 141E WNW SLOWLY.


92W INVEST 201105 0600 10.0N 144.1E WPAC 15 1008
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 05, 2020 7:38 am

EURO peaks this at 989 mb before a landfall in Vietnam.

GFS delays development until it reaches the SCS, a mere 1001 mb peak...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 05, 2020 7:48 am

Literally all of the globals supports GFS's forecast of the 2nd system being stronger.

EURO is the lone model.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#9 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Nov 05, 2020 7:53 am

They make this landfall in less than 3 days it could get to a minimal TS at best before landfall, JMA has a TD within 48 hours.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#10 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Nov 05, 2020 8:32 am

06Z ECMWF 996 mb while traversing, interesting to note this run GFS and ECMWF have different init, the latter already tracking it at tau 0, same with 00Z.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#11 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:50 am

ABPW10 PGTW 060600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/060600Z-070600ZNOV2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060152ZNOV2020//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060151ZNOV2020//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.6N
136.5E, APPROXIMATELY 174 NM NORTHEAST OF PALAU, FSM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS BROAD LOW LEVEL
TURNING WITH DISORGANIZED AND FLARING CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A PARTIAL
060443Z AMSR2 89 GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DISORGANIZED
AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
INVEST 92W IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS CONDUCIVE TO FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND
DIVERGENCE ALOFT OFFSET BY MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 92W WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND STRENGTHENS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#12 Postby LarryWx » Fri Nov 06, 2020 4:03 pm

The biggest issue from this likely won't be its winds but rather its rains if it were to head toward the flood ravaged central Vietnam mid next week like the 12Z Euro, GFS, and CMC all show. That area has been hit repeatedly by TCs in addition to the monsoon for a full month already. Enough is enough!
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#13 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:43 pm

999 mb and 998 mb landfall EURO/GFS. The rain and flooding will be the biggest issue again.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 92W

#14 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:33 pm

WWJP27 RJTD 070000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 070000.
WARNING VALID 080000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 11N 128E WEST SLOWLY.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 92W

#15 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 06, 2020 10:13 pm

Up to Medium


THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.6N 136.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 128.0E, APPROXIMATELY
460 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ELONGATED LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. A PARTIAL 062049Z SSMIS F-18 91 GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS DISORGANIZED AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. INVEST 92W IS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, DIVERGENCE ALOFT OFFSET
BY MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE THAT INVEST 92W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AS IT
ONSOLIDATES AND STRENGTHENS WEST OF THE PHILIPPINES AFTER TAU 30
UNDER AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#16 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Nov 06, 2020 11:25 pm

euro6208 wrote:999 mb and 998 mb landfall EURO/GFS. The rain and flooding will be the biggest issue again.

Yeah the Philippines and Vietnam have had a ton of storms and rain this year, hopefully this one won't do much. Especially since the Philippines are coming off one of the strongest storms ever recorded.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#17 Postby underthwx » Fri Nov 06, 2020 11:28 pm

LarryWx wrote:The biggest issue from this likely won't be its winds but rather its rains if it were to head toward the flood ravaged central Vietnam mid next week like the 12Z Euro, GFS, and CMC all show. That area has been hit repeatedly by TCs in addition to the monsoon for a full month already. Enough is enough!


I agree Larry.... Vietnam just had 2 storms back to back if I'm not mistaken?...
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 92W

#18 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 07, 2020 6:27 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.2N 128.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 127.4E, APPROXIMATELY
333 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 070526Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. A 062352Z ASCAT-A PASS DEPICTS A BROAD WIND FIELD WITH
HIGHER WINDS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE BROAD
CIRCULATION. INVEST 92W IS TRANSITING THROUGH A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (29-30 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-
20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT
INVEST 92W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND
STRENGTHENS WEST OF THE PHILIPPINES UNDER AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 92W

#19 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:41 am

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.4N 124.6E TO 12.8N 116.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 071200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.4N 124.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.2N 127.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 124.1E, APPROXIMATELY 45
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
STRUGGLING AGAINST THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF TRAVERSING THROUGH THE
PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. A 071007Z SSMIS F-17 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD THE LLC AND SHALLOWER CONVECTIVE
BANDING FORMING TO THE EAST. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN AN MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29
TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE TO
HIGH (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK WESTWARD
WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION WHILE OVER THE PHILIPPINES. HOWEVER,
AFTER IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, MODELS
EXPECT IT TO INTENSIFY TO WARNING THRESHOLD WITH LIMITED FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
081500Z.//
NNNN
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 92W

#20 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:02 pm

Image
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