WPAC: ETAU - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: ETAU - Tropical Storm

#41 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:30 am

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Re: WPAC: ETAU - Tropical Storm

#42 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:59 am

Up to 40 knots.

WDPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (ETAU)
WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (ETAU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 293 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS RELATIVELY SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE
ASSESSED CENTER, WITH SHALLOWER CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 090544Z ATMS 88GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT, WITH AN ELONGATED BAND OF DEEPER
BANDING IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A NASCENT MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE AND
IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW/RJTD IN LIGHT OF A DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (40 KNOTS) FROM BOTH KNES AND VIA THE ADVANCED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SINGLE CHANNEL OUTFLOW, WHICH IS OFFSETTING
WEAKLY SUPPORTIVE SST VALUES BETWEEN 27C TO 28C. TS 24W CONTINUES
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 24W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR THROUGH, MAKING LANDFALL OVER EASTERN VIETNAM
NEAR TAU 18. TS 24W HAS LIKELY REACHED PEAK INTENSITY. AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TRACKING WEST, SSTS STEADILY DECREASE AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST OF VIETNAM WHILE VWS WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH TAU 24.
AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INLAND AND DISSIPATE OVER
CENTRAL CAMBODIA BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 50NM AT LANDFALL WITH JGSM BEING A
EQUATORWARD OUTLIER, THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE BEING EXTREMELY
TIGHTLY PACKED (19NM SPREAD) AT LANDFALL, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: ETAU - Tropical Storm

#43 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:11 pm

24W ETAU 201109 1800 12.3N 110.9E WPAC 35 999
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Re: WPAC: ETAU - Tropical Storm

#44 Postby LarryWx » Mon Nov 09, 2020 5:58 pm

Weather Dude wrote:24W ETAU 201109 1800 12.3N 110.9E WPAC 35 999


Prior coordinates were 12.8N, 113.3E followed by 12.5N, 111.3E. Earlier projections had been for a straight W movement. But this is saying it had been moving a bit S of those projections with a WSW movement instead of W as it heads toward south-central Vietnam.
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Re: WPAC: ETAU - Tropical Storm

#45 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 09, 2020 7:17 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (ETAU)
WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 24W (ETAU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 269 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE POSITION
OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE EIR LOOP AS WELL AS VIA
EXTRAPOLATION THROUGH THE BANDING FEATURES PRESENT IN A 091500Z
GMI 37 GHZ IMAGE. ANALYSIS OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME FURTHER DECOUPLED FROM THE LLCC
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
35 KTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS, PGTW) AND T2.5 (35 KTS,
RJTD). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A RAPIDLY DETERIORATING
ENVIRONMENT, WITH COOLING SSTS (26-27 DEG CELSIUS) AND MODERATE TO
HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VWS OFFSETTING THE CONTINUED ROBUST
WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE CONTINUED
DECOUPLING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE
IS LIKELY SHIFTING TO THE LOW LEVEL EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW,
RESULTING IN THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK MOTION SEEN IN THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 24W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THROUGH TAU 12,
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AND AS A RESULT IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 35 KTS. AT TAU 12 TS ETAU WILL MAKE LANDFALL
ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL VIETNAM COAST AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER
LAND DUE TO CONTINUED MODERATE TO HIGH VWS AND INTERACTION WITH THE
UNDERLYING TERRAIN. AS THE SYSTEM CENTER MOVES FURTHER INLAND, IT
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU
36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF
60NM AT LANDFALL. THIS SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS INCREASES THEREAFTER AS
THE VARIOUS MODELS LOSE THE VORTEX SIGNATURE DUE TO THE RAPID DECAY
OF THE SYSTEM OVER LAND. THE JTWC FORECAST IS SET SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT TRACK MOTION AND
SHIFT IN THE STEERING MECHANISM WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: ETAU - Tropical Storm

#46 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:49 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: ETAU - Tropical Storm

#47 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:55 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (ETAU)
WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 24W (ETAU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
240 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE POSITION OF
THE LOW LEVEL BANDING IN THE MSI LOOP AS WELL AS THE LOW LEVEL
FEATURES PRESENT IN A 092340Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS,
PGTW) AND T2.5 (35 KTS, RJTD). TD ETAU IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOL (< 26 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 24W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL
ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL VIETNAM COAST SLIGHTLY BEFORE TAU 12 AND
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND DUE TO CONTINUED MODERATE TO HIGH VWS
AND INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN. AS THE SYSTEM CENTER
MOVES FURTHER INLAND, IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND COMPLETE
DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 30 NM AT LANDFALL. THIS SPREAD
IN SOLUTIONS INCREASES THEREAFTER AS THE VARIOUS MODELS LOSE THE
VORTEX SIGNATURE DUE TO THE DECAY OF THE SYSTEM OVER LAND. THIS
TIGHT AGREEMENT IN MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE LENDS OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID ON THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: ETAU - Tropical Storm

#48 Postby LarryWx » Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:08 pm

Note the Vietnam 48 hour rainfall (from 12Z Euro):

Image
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Re: WPAC: ETAU - Tropical Depression

#49 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 10, 2020 7:10 am

Final Warning


Image

WTPN31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (ETAU) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (ETAU) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 12.6N 109.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 109.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 12.6N 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 12.4N 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 108.7E.
10NOV20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 24W (ETAU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
178 NM NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN
VIETNAM JUST NORTH OF CAM RANH AIRPORT. TD 24W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
FURTHER INLAND AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 12, AS IT CROSSES INTO CAMBODIA,
MOSTLY DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS BROUGHT ON BY THE RUGGED
TERRAIN. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 25W (VAMCO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: ETAU - Post-Tropical

#50 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 10, 2020 9:06 pm

24W ETAU 201111 0000 12.7N 105.2E WPAC 10 1014
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Re: WPAC: ETAU - Post-Tropical

#51 Postby LarryWx » Tue Nov 10, 2020 9:22 pm

Hayabusa wrote:
24W ETAU 201111 0000 12.7N 105.2E WPAC 10 1014


Has anyone seen any news about how bad it was in Vietnam? Any links? Thanks.
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Re: WPAC: ETAU - Post-Tropical

#52 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:14 pm

Hayabusa wrote:
24W ETAU 201111 0000 12.7N 105.2E WPAC 10 1014

10kts? I don't think I've seen that one before lol. That's like Tropical Puff Etau :lol: The rain is a different story, nonstop for them this year
Last edited by ElectricStorm on Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: ETAU - Post-Tropical

#53 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:23 pm

LarryWx wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:
24W ETAU 201111 0000 12.7N 105.2E WPAC 10 1014


Has anyone seen any news about how bad it was in Vietnam? Any links? Thanks.


Sadly two more lost their lives. 159 total dead with 71 missing from the previous storms. Vamco looks to cause more havoc.

2 dead
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