SIO: ALICIA - Post-Tropical

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mrbagyo
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Re: SIO: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM ALICIA

#21 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Nov 14, 2020 10:37 am

01S ALICIA 201114 1200 9.5S 77.2E SHEM 50 994
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Re: SIO: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM ALICIA

#22 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Nov 14, 2020 10:39 am

ZCZC 636
WTIO30 FMEE 141238
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/1/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALICIA)
2.A POSITION 2020/11/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6 S / 77.4 E
(NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 15 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 50 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 240 SW: 170 NW: 160
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): NIL
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/11/15 00 UTC: 11.8 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/11/15 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/11/16 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2020/11/16 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/11/17 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2020/11/17 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/11/18 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS EVOLVED IN A CDO PATTERN SINCE LATE MORNING
WITH OCCASIONAL EYE-LIKE FEATURES ON VISIBLE IMAGERY AROUND MIDDAY.
THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY OF 0845Z AND 1101Z SHOW HOWEVER THAT THE INNER
CORE IS STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE ITSELF IN THE MID-LEVELS IN POSSIBLE
CONNECTION WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY CONSTRAINT. THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGING CLEARLY MATERIALIZES A POOR OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE
WHILE IT IS EXCELLENT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 50 KT IN GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE HIGHEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE ADT.
ALICIA HAS WELL RESUMED A RAPID SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT STEERED BY THE
STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
A DEEP LAYERS TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST, THE RIDGE IS GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD AND WILL LEAVE A NORTHERLY FLOW FROM SUNDAY
ONWARDS. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GLOBAL
TRAJECTORY. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES IN RELATION TO THE WEAK STEERING FLOW AND THE EXISTENCE OF
TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS: THE PERSISTENCE OF A SOUTHWARDS TO
SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK OR A SOUTHWESTWARDS OR WESTWARDS DRIFT OF A
REMNANT LOW IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW.
ON THIS TRAJECTORY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE HELP OF THE STRENGTHENING EQUATORIAL
WESTERLY WINDS, A VERY GOOD DIVERGENCE, LITTLE SHEAR AND A VERY
STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE TOMORROW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER, CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH INSUFFICIENT OCEANIC
POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 17S, INCREASING SHEAR, GRADUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH
INTRUSIONS OF DRY MID-TROPICAL AIR.=
NNNN
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Re: SIO: ALICIA - Tropical Cyclone

#23 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Nov 15, 2020 9:36 pm

ZCZC 376
WTIO20 FMEE 160029
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/11/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 16/11/2020 AT 0000 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 1 (ALICIA) 979 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3 S / 72.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/11/16 AT 12 UTC:
16.2 S / 72.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/11/17 AT 00 UTC:
16.7 S / 71.9 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=
NNNN
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Re: SIO: ALICIA - Tropical Cyclone

#24 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Nov 15, 2020 9:38 pm

JTWC : 65 knots

WTXS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 14.2S 73.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 73.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.6S 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.5S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.5S 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.5S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 20.4S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 73.1E.
15NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 428
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED 6-HR ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER IMPROVED WITH A
DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION AND DENSE CONVECTIVE BANDING IN
THE EIR LOOP, LENDING ONLY POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THEN A PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T3.5/55KTS AND CLOSER TO A FMEE CI
OF T4.0/65KTS AND A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) CI ESTIMATE
OF T3.9/63KTS. FURTHERMORE, A 151310Z CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON)
OF 66KTS LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS INITIAL 65 KTS INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
AND WARM (29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 01S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST UNDER THE STEERING STR.
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WHICH WILL ERODE
THE CYCLONE TOWARD DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. AFTERWARD, MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE SPREAD INCREASES
AND BIFURCATES WITH A SMALL CLUSTER TO THE LEFT THAT INCLUDES NAVGEM,
AFUM, AND EGRR. THE MAIN CLUSTER TO THE RIGHT THAT INCLUDES GFS, ECMF,
EGRR, AND AEMN, AND EEMN SUGGEST A WEAK VORTEX THAT DRIFTS ON THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL (850MB) STR TO THE SOUTH. IN
VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR-PORTION OF THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID OVER THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS; AND LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE MID TO EXTENDED PORTION THAT IS LINED UP WITH THE MAIN
CLUSTER ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND 162100Z.
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Re: SIO: ALICIA - Tropical Cyclone

#25 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Nov 15, 2020 9:54 pm

Image
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Re: SIO: ALICIA - Severe Tropical Storm

#26 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Nov 16, 2020 7:28 pm

ZCZC 312
WTIO30 FMEE 161746
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/1/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALICIA)
2.A POSITION 2020/11/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9 S / 71.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/11/17 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/11/17 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/11/18 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/11/18 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2020/11/19 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0- CI=4.0-
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS,THE SHEAR PATTERN OF THE LOW IS ALLSO
CONFIRMED BY LATEST SATELITE IMAGERY. IN AGREEMENT WITH OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ANALYSIS (SATCON/ADT), INTENSITY WAS THUS DOWNGRADED TO 55
KT. MINIMAL ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ADJUSTED THANKS TO THE
BUOY 5601578 CURRENTLY MEASURING ITS MINIMUM OF PRESSURE AROUND
987HPA AT NEARLY 20NM FROM THE CENTER CLOSE AT 13UTC.
THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS DRIVEN BY THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH INDUCES A POLEWARDS TRACK. IT THEN BECOME
MORE ZONAL THANKS TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE, WHEN
THE SYSTEM BECOMES WEAK. THE PROBABILITY OF A FUJIWARA EFFECT WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02 SEEMS RATHER LOW DUE TO THE SHORT SIZE OF 02.
UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER STRONG NEVERTHELESS WITH MANY EPS MEMBERS OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTING YET A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK.
ALICIA HAS STARTED ITS RAPID WEAKENING PHASE DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF
DRY AIR ABOVE THE INNER CORE IN RELATION WITH SHEAR. THE DISAPPEARING
OF THE SUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD END ANY POSSIBILITY FOR
RENEWED TROPICAL DEEPENING AND FILL UP THE SYSTEM.=
NNNN
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