ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

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GCANE
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1521 Postby GCANE » Mon Nov 16, 2020 8:02 pm

Eye at 95% RH.
Very likely a EWRC underway.

Previous recons should increasing RH during the day.
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1522 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 16, 2020 8:10 pm

Very high flight level wind this pass. SFMR readings just don't match up even in the early stages of ERC.

I think the operational landfall intensity would still be 130kt. Curious to see what post-season analysis will find.
Last edited by supercane4867 on Mon Nov 16, 2020 8:42 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1523 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Nov 16, 2020 8:10 pm

In typical 2020 fashion, Iota waits until the absolute worst time for an ERC. It won't be a Cat 5 landfall, but that wind field will expand. This one's gonna hurt.
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1524 Postby shiny-pebble » Mon Nov 16, 2020 8:11 pm

Looks like FL winds actually increased back up to 140kts+ in the northern eyewall
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1525 Postby underthwx » Mon Nov 16, 2020 8:12 pm

Iceresistance wrote:This thing is still getting better by the frame!

https://s8.gifyu.com/images/Iota-is-improving.png

I came across this image from earlier today that is absolutely awesome...great image Ice.......where are you?...
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1526 Postby ncforecaster89 » Mon Nov 16, 2020 8:14 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Very high flight level wind this pass. SFMR readings just don't match up even in the early stages of ERC.

I think the operational landfall intensity would still be 130kt. Curios to see what post-season analysis will find.


That’s exactly the estimate I’d set, as well. Throw out all SFMR data so close to shore.
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1527 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Nov 16, 2020 8:14 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Very high flight level wind this pass. SFMR readings just don't match up even in the early stages of ERC.

I think the operational landfall intensity would still be 130kt. Curios to see what post-season analysis will find.

Could that be due to the shallower water? I've heard that can mess up SFMR
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1528 Postby wx98 » Mon Nov 16, 2020 8:20 pm

Eye is really starting to degrade on IR now.
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1529 Postby ncforecaster89 » Mon Nov 16, 2020 8:21 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Very high flight level wind this pass. SFMR readings just don't match up even in the early stages of ERC.

I think the operational landfall intensity would still be 130kt. Curios to see what post-season analysis will find.

Could that be due to the shallower water? I've heard that can mess up SFMR


That’s the reason I would toss the SFMR data; e.g., they aren’t reliable in shallow waters due to shoaling near shore.
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1530 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Nov 16, 2020 8:24 pm

ncforecaster89 wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Very high flight level wind this pass. SFMR readings just don't match up even in the early stages of ERC.

I think the operational landfall intensity would still be 130kt. Curios to see what post-season analysis will find.

Could that be due to the shallower water? I've heard that can mess up SFMR


That’s the reason I would toss the SFMR data; e.g., they aren’t reliable in shallow waters due to shoaling near shore.

Yeah that's what I thought. That 140kt+ flight level reading still suggests its at least a higher end 4
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1531 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Nov 16, 2020 8:29 pm

Kept at 140 for now. I think they'll go 130-135 at the advisory though
31L IOTA 201117 0000 13.6N 83.1W ATL 140 918
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1532 Postby Raebie » Mon Nov 16, 2020 8:37 pm

What is the ETA for landfall? TIA
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1533 Postby Kazmit » Mon Nov 16, 2020 8:41 pm

Double eyewall is clear.

Image
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1534 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 16, 2020 8:44 pm

Raebie wrote:What is the ETA for landfall? TIA

Operationally kept at 120kt I believe
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1535 Postby ncforecaster89 » Mon Nov 16, 2020 8:54 pm

Raebie wrote:What is the ETA for landfall? TIA


Center of the eye should be onshore in less than two hours, based on the latest radar I’m utilizing.
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1536 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:09 pm

No matter what the final landfall intensity ends up being, one thing is for sure... November 16, 2020 will be a day remembered for a long time when it comes to the tropics. Absolutely insane what happened today, and what is about to happen in Nicaragua sadly.
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1537 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:10 pm

Well, at least it wasn’t a Cat 5 at landfall...although the EWRC didn’t really help reduce the wind impacts at all.
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1538 Postby ColdMiser123 » Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:13 pm

ncforecaster89 wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Very high flight level wind this pass. SFMR readings just don't match up even in the early stages of ERC.

I think the operational landfall intensity would still be 130kt. Curios to see what post-season analysis will find.

Could that be due to the shallower water? I've heard that can mess up SFMR


That’s the reason I would toss the SFMR data; e.g., they aren’t reliable in shallow waters due to shoaling near shore.


This should also be something worth analyzing in the TCRs for Sally and Zeta.

Sally had 110 kt FL wind, while Zeta had 119 kt FL wind, which translates to 99 kt, and 107 kt respectively using standard 700 mb wind conversions, both support Category 3 intensity. However, SFMR generally suggested a Category 2 in both cases, while these measurements were in shallow water. Radar data also suggested in both cases that SFMR might be too low, and dropsondes showed high winds mixing all throughout the boundary layer. Iota should be another interesting case study alongside Sally and Zeta, especially when it comes to the veracity of these shallow water SFMR measurements.
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1539 Postby NotoSans » Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:21 pm

The shoaling issue causes a high, not low, bias in SFMR winds.

Mismatch between SFMR and flight-level winds is frequently observed in storms undergoing ERC.
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1540 Postby ColdMiser123 » Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:26 pm

NotoSans wrote:The shoaling issue causes a high, not low, bias in SFMR winds.

Mismatch between SFMR and flight-level winds is frequently observed in storms undergoing ERC.


I would argue that there are enough inconsistencies in all three cases to where this deserves a thorough analysis in the post-seasonal TCRs.

SFMR bias corrections are constantly being updated, and I would be interested to see if they add an additional bias correction as a result of this year's data.
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