ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
ncforecaster89
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 216
Age: 53
Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2018 12:32 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1541 Postby ncforecaster89 » Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:30 pm

NotoSans wrote:The shoaling issue causes a high, not low, bias in SFMR winds.

Mismatch between SFMR and flight-level winds is frequently observed in storms undergoing ERC.


You’re absolutely correct on the second point, but I’ve also seen a low bias on SFMR in shallow waters, as well...being why I’d weight the other data more heavily. No doubt this storm has weakened considerably, but not to the point reflected in the SFMR data.

That all said, a 130 kt Cat 4 seems most appropriate for its current intensity.
1 likes   

ncforecaster89
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 216
Age: 53
Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2018 12:32 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1542 Postby ncforecaster89 » Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:35 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:
NotoSans wrote:The shoaling issue causes a high, not low, bias in SFMR winds.

Mismatch between SFMR and flight-level winds is frequently observed in storms undergoing ERC.


I would argue that there are enough inconsistencies in all three cases to where this deserves a thorough analysis in the post-seasonal TCRs.

SFMR bias corrections are constantly being updated, and I would be interested to see if they add an additional bias correction as a result of this year's data.


Agree, wholeheartedly! One must also consider that the sample size of the SFMR data pales in comparison to the research that’s been done with approximating surface winds from those at the 700 mb level.
3 likes   

Hurricane Mike
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 562
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:44 am

Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1543 Postby Hurricane Mike » Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:36 pm

The eye is really filling in on the infrared. Too bad it's too late to stop that 20 ft surge from slamming into coastal villages.
2 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8029
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1544 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:39 pm

135 kt and 920 mbar almost at landfall. Just wow...this is as much of a horrific disaster as it is a meteorological freak.
1 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1545 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:39 pm

In such discrepancies, something has to give.

One could argue the landfall intensity to be as low as a minimum CAT4 and slightly stronger just prior to that, but those SFMR readings in the low-end CAT3 range really can’t speak for themselves.
1 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33391
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1546 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:59 pm

supercane4867 wrote:In such discrepancies, something has to give.

One could argue the landfall intensity to be as low as a minimum CAT4 and slightly stronger just prior to that, but those SFMR readings in the low-end CAT3 range really can’t speak for themselves.


The SFMR on the south side was still in the cat 4 range. They went through the north side five times though and never went into the east side. The west side was already ashore or near shore.

I'd personally go with 125 kt given all the data - 117 kt SFMR on the south side, 143 kt FL winds and being unable to cover the NW and SW quads. Regardless, those winds would be in a small area - and the rain, significant peripheral winds and storm surge in a MUCH larger area.
3 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10348
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1547 Postby Sanibel » Mon Nov 16, 2020 10:21 pm

Haulover, Nicaragua is being smashed...Prinzapolka is getting the south eye wall...
0 likes   

Hurricane Mike
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 562
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:44 am

Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1548 Postby Hurricane Mike » Mon Nov 16, 2020 10:28 pm

0 likes   

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1549 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 16, 2020 10:29 pm

Center making landfall now

Image
9 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1550 Postby NDG » Mon Nov 16, 2020 10:35 pm

Sanibel wrote:Haulover, Nicaragua is being smashed...Prinzapolka is getting the south eye wall...


You may want to check your map again, Haulover is way down south close to Bluefields, 90 miles south of where IOTA is making landfall.

Edit: apparently there are two towns called Haulover, I see the one that you are referring to, north of Prinzapolka but is only just a few houses (30-40) on the coast, I hope those people got the heck out of there because is just on a strip of land between the Caribbean sea and the Lagoon.
Last edited by NDG on Mon Nov 16, 2020 10:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

us89
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 399
Joined: Wed Sep 04, 2019 11:12 pm
Location: Tallahassee, FL

Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1551 Postby us89 » Mon Nov 16, 2020 10:38 pm

NDG wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Haulover, Nicaragua is being smashed...Prinzapolka is getting the south eye wall...


You may want to check your map again, Haulover is way down south close to Bluefields, 90 miles south of where IOTA is making landfall.


What? On Google Maps, a place called Haulover shows up about halfway between Prinzapolka and Puerto Cabezas, which looks to be almost exactly where landfall is occurring based on the satellite loop.
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1552 Postby NDG » Mon Nov 16, 2020 10:44 pm

us89 wrote:
NDG wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Haulover, Nicaragua is being smashed...Prinzapolka is getting the south eye wall...


You may want to check your map again, Haulover is way down south close to Bluefields, 90 miles south of where IOTA is making landfall.


What? On Google Maps, a place called Haulover shows up about halfway between Prinzapolka and Puerto Cabezas, which looks to be almost exactly where landfall is occurring based on the satellite loop.


For some reason Google Maps shows it to be further south when I searched it, but I see the other little town of just a few homes further north where is making landfall.

Image
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33391
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1553 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 16, 2020 10:51 pm

Haulover looks to have about 300 people based on its size, although that is a crude estimate. There's no road access into that village though.

Wawa (looks to be about 1,000 people) is getting the edge of the northern eyewall, while Wounta (looks to be about 200 people) is probably getting the southern eyewall. Hopefully those areas were evacuated - even if that would be difficult due to no road access + a poor country.
0 likes   

User avatar
ColdMiser123
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 778
Age: 27
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2016 3:26 pm
Location: Northeast US

Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1554 Postby ColdMiser123 » Mon Nov 16, 2020 10:51 pm

000
WTNT61 KNHC 170348
TCUAT1

Hurricane Iota Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
1045 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IOTA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE
COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE,
CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...

Category 4 Hurricane Iota, with sustained winds near 155 mph (250
km/h), made landfall along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near
the town of Haulover, or about 30 miles (45 km) south of Puerto
Cabezas, at 1040 PM EST...0340 UTC...this Monday evening.

Hurricane Iota's landfall location is approximately 15 miles (25
km) south of where Category 4 Hurricane Eta made landfall earlier
this month on November 3rd.

SUMMARY OF 1040 PM EST...0340 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 83.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM SSW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Latto
1 likes   
B.S., M.S., Meteorology & Atmospheric Science

User avatar
Owasso
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 292
Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:14 pm
Location: Chicago, Illinois

Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1555 Postby Owasso » Mon Nov 16, 2020 10:52 pm

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IOTA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...

Category 4 Hurricane Iota, with sustained winds near 155 mph (250 km/h), made landfall along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near the town of Haulover, or about 30 miles (45 km) south of Puerto Cabezas, at 1040 PM EST...0340 UTC...this Monday evening.

Hurricane Iota's landfall location is approximately 15 miles (25 km) south of where Category 4 Hurricane Eta made landfall earlier this month on November 3rd.
0 likes   

User avatar
Owasso
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 292
Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:14 pm
Location: Chicago, Illinois

Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1556 Postby Owasso » Mon Nov 16, 2020 10:55 pm

Wow. Just 15 miles south of where Hurricane Eta made landfall.
1 likes   

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4493
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1557 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Nov 16, 2020 10:58 pm

Owasso wrote:
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IOTA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...

Category 4 Hurricane Iota, with sustained winds near 155 mph (250 km/h), made landfall along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near the town of Haulover, or about 30 miles (45 km) south of Puerto Cabezas, at 1040 PM EST...0340 UTC...this Monday evening.

Hurricane Iota's landfall location is approximately 15 miles (25 km) south of where Category 4 Hurricane Eta made landfall earlier this month on November 3rd.

15 miles. That is absolutely insane. I've never even been through a Cat 1, let alone back to back Cat 4s. I can't image what they are going through down there...
6 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!

User avatar
Ryxn
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 314
Age: 24
Joined: Fri Sep 08, 2017 4:50 pm
Location: Toronto, Canada

Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1558 Postby Ryxn » Mon Nov 16, 2020 11:10 pm

Latest CAT 4 landfall on record for the Atlantic...

(Lenny made landfall as a CAT 3)
3 likes   

Astromanía
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 735
Age: 25
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:34 pm
Location: Monterrey, N.L, México

Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1559 Postby Astromanía » Mon Nov 16, 2020 11:46 pm

Ryxn wrote:Latest CAT 4 landfall on record for the Atlantic...

(Lenny made landfall as a CAT 3)

What isn't a record this year in ATL? Lol
4 likes   

Chris_in_Tampa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4963
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:06 pm
Location: Tampa, Florida, USA
Contact:

Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1560 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Mon Nov 16, 2020 11:55 pm

Imagery at 10:45pm EST.

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image
1 likes   


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests