ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

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tomatkins
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

#1601 Postby tomatkins » Wed Nov 18, 2020 1:42 pm

kevin wrote:
jimpsummers wrote:I wonder if Eta and Iota will be retired as storm names, even though they are in the Greek alphabet portion of the storm name list....


At the moment the rule is that a Greek name won't be retired, but that an extraordinary storm with a big impact (like indeed Eta and Iota this year) will be specifically referred to as Eta-2020 or Iota-2020 in the future. However, the discussion regarding this rule has been growing this year for obvious reasons, but there hasn't been any official announcement to date (that I know of) that the Greek naming and/or retirement system will be changed. We will probably hear more about it once the season has officially ended. There are already a few topics in the Talking Tropics section of the website if you want to read what other people on the forum think about the situation:

With What Names Will Eta and Iota Be Replaced? = http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121604
What if one of the Greek alphabet storms is bad enough to be retired? = http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121356

Yeah, assume when they came up with the stupid, retire but still use rule back in 2006, they assumed (correctly) that Greek letters were a once in a generation phenomena, and (incorrectly) that being late in the season, you were unlikely to have any Greek storm worth retiring. It was a relatively good bet, there have only been 12 storms that initially formed in October or later than have been retired - so the chances that you would get one of those storms that also coincided with a super active season was relatively low. But of course this year blew that out of the water.
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

#1602 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Nov 19, 2020 2:01 am

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Here is my thought for the best track for Iota.

AL312020, IOTA, 29,
20201112, 1200, , LO, 15.5N, 70.9W, 25, 1008,
20201112, 1800, , LO, 15.2N, 72.0W, 25, 1008,
20201113, 0000, , LO, 15.0N, 72.7W, 30, 1007,
20201113, 0600, , TD, 14.7N, 73.3W, 30, 1006,
20201113, 1200, , TS, 14.3N, 73.8W, 35, 1004,
20201113, 1800, , TS, 14.0N, 74.1W, 35, 1003,
20201114, 0000, , TS, 13.6N, 74.5W, 40, 1002,
20201114, 0600, , TS, 13.3N, 75.0W, 40, 1001,
20201114, 1200, , TS, 12.9N, 75.7W, 45, 998,
20201114, 1800, , TS, 12.5N, 76.3W, 50, 995,
20201115, 0000, , TS, 12.7N, 76.7W, 60, 991,
20201115, 0600, , HU, 13.0N, 77.1W, 70, 986,
20201115, 1200, , HU, 13.1N, 78.0W, 75, 982,
20201115, 1800, , HU, 13.2N, 78.9W, 85, 974,
20201116, 0000, , HU, 13.3N, 79.8W, 100, 959,
20201116, 0600, , HU, 13.4N, 80.7W, 125, 935,
20201116, 1200, , HU, 13.5N, 81.5W, 140, 917,
20201116, 1800, , HU, 13.5N, 82.3W, 135, 918,
20201117, 0000, , HU, 13.6N, 83.1W, 125, 920,
20201117, 0330, L, HU, 13.7N, 83.5W, 120, 926,
20201117, 0600, , HU, 13.7N, 83.9W, 95, 948,
20201117, 1200, , TS, 13.7N, 84.8W, 60, 970,
20201117, 1800, , TS, 13.8N, 85.8W, 45, 991,
20201118, 0000, , TS, 13.8N, 86.8W, 35, 999,
20201118, 0600, , TD, 13.8N, 87.9W, 30, 1004,

There aren't a lot of changes from the operational analysis.
* The explosive intensification period is smoothed out a bit between Recon passes. That results in a slightly higher trajectory before the peak intensity.
* The peak intensity is maintained at 140 kt, with the pressure of 917 mb also unchanged. Those were well supported by a blend of the flight-level winds (highest were 148 kt = 133 kt at the surface), SFMR (143 kt), satellite estimates (140 kt) and pressure reading (about 145 kt).
* After the peak, the intensities are brought down some in accordance with Recon estimates on subsequent flights.
* The landfall intensity I estimate was 120 kt. On the last flight around 00Z, the flight level winds were 143 kt (equates to 128 kt) with the SFMR of 116 kt. As coverage wasn't great, I estimate 125 kt was the intensity at that time. The satellite signature degraded a bit afterward, which suggests some weakening. The landfall pressure estimate of 926 mb was also based on weakening after the last reading of 921 mb around 0045Z.
* Land observations were quite sparse due to the low population near the core, hence the post-landfall intensities are rough estimates.
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

#1603 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:54 am

Regarding hail in the eyewall:

URNT12 KNHC 311907
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/1907Z
B. 20 DEG 22 MIN N
65 DEG 20 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2579 M
D. 50 KT
E. 226 DEG 084 NM
F. 323 DEG 123 KT
G. 238 DEG 011 NM
H. 940 MB
I. 13 C/ 3074 M
J. 24 C/ 3057 M
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C28
N. 12345/07
O. .1 /2 NM
P. AF985 1006A FRANCES OB 11
MAX FL WIND 137 KT NW QUAD 1735Z. SMALL HAIL IN SW EYEWALL.

Source

So it is not unprecedented, based on this snippet from ‘04, among others.
Last edited by Shell Mound on Thu Nov 19, 2020 12:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

#1604 Postby underthwx » Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:58 am

Shell Mound wrote:Regarding hail in the eyewall:

URNT12 KNHC 311907
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/1907Z
B. 20 DEG 22 MIN N
65 DEG 20 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2579 M
D. 50 KT
E. 226 DEG 084 NM
F. 323 DEG 123 KT
G. 238 DEG 011 NM
H. 940 MB
I. 13 C/ 3074 M
J. 24 C/ 3057 M
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C28
N. 12345/07
O. .1 /2 NM
P. AF985 1006A FRANCES OB 11
MAX FL WIND 137 KT NW QUAD 1735Z. SMALL HAIL IN SW EYEWALL.

Source

Until a very good friend told me, I did not know cyclones normally don't have hail...yet there it is in black and white...
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

#1605 Postby mitchell » Thu Nov 19, 2020 1:14 pm

tomatkins wrote:
kevin wrote:
jimpsummers wrote:Yeah, assume when they came up with the stupid, retire but still use rule back in 2006, they assumed (correctly) that Greek letters were a once in a generation phenomena, and (incorrectly) that being late in the season, you were unlikely to have any Greek storm worth retiring. It was a relatively good bet, there have only been 12 storms that initially formed in October or later than have been retired - so the chances that you would get one of those storms that also coincided with a super active season was relatively low. But of course this year blew that out of the water.


yeah not a good rule in retrospect, and kind of doesn't make sense. They should have just decided to retire the names of devastating hurricane's with Greek alphabet names. If, as you correctly note, the likelihood of a greek named devastating storm is quite low, so the need to retire a name is low. However 20+ storm seasons are foreseeable, and devastating storms in late October and November is foreseeable, so the need to retire Greek names is foreseeable.
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

#1606 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Nov 19, 2020 4:25 pm

storm_in_a_teacup wrote:Does anyone have any idea what the best organizations to donate to the relief effort would be? I’m not sure which ones are performing the best in this crazy year.


Not sure, but there are some links here you can try:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... ica/852092
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

#1607 Postby zhukm29 » Thu Nov 19, 2020 4:37 pm

Went to web archive and dug up the original Storm2k map of Iota as a Cat. 5 in November - just wanted to save this image for posterity. What a storm!
Image
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

#1608 Postby underthwx » Thu Nov 19, 2020 4:43 pm

zhukm29 wrote:Went to web archive and dug up the original Storm2k map of Iota as a Cat. 5 in November - just wanted to save this image for posterity. What a storm!
https://i.ibb.co/tPX972f/plotsystemforecast-nt-pz-pa-2020-active-invests-fulltropics-merc-640x280-640-480-24.jpg

Blast from the past...that's cool...hadn't seen that map in a minute....
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

#1609 Postby SconnieCane » Sun Sep 26, 2021 8:40 pm

Some pretty dramatic footage of Iota's damage on Isla de Providencia on tonight's episode of 90 Day Fiance: The Other Way, since one of this season's cast members is from there.
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

#1610 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Sep 26, 2021 9:01 pm

tomatkins wrote:
kevin wrote:
jimpsummers wrote:I wonder if Eta and Iota will be retired as storm names, even though they are in the Greek alphabet portion of the storm name list....


At the moment the rule is that a Greek name won't be retired, but that an extraordinary storm with a big impact (like indeed Eta and Iota this year) will be specifically referred to as Eta-2020 or Iota-2020 in the future. However, the discussion regarding this rule has been growing this year for obvious reasons, but there hasn't been any official announcement to date (that I know of) that the Greek naming and/or retirement system will be changed. We will probably hear more about it once the season has officially ended. There are already a few topics in the Talking Tropics section of the website if you want to read what other people on the forum think about the situation:

With What Names Will Eta and Iota Be Replaced? = http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121604
What if one of the Greek alphabet storms is bad enough to be retired? = http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121356

Yeah, assume when they came up with the stupid, retire but still use rule back in 2006, they assumed (correctly) that Greek letters were a once in a generation phenomena, and (incorrectly) that being late in the season, you were unlikely to have any Greek storm worth retiring. It was a relatively good bet, there have only been 12 storms that initially formed in October or later than have been retired - so the chances that you would get one of those storms that also coincided with a super active season was relatively low. But of course this year blew that out of the water.


Well they had no clue in 2006 that not only would 2020 challenge the Greek naming system but that 2021 would have gone Greek too.
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