ATL: IOTA - Models

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aspen
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#201 Postby aspen » Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:14 pm


A few mbar stronger than last run, and perhaps a hair further north.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#202 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:16 pm

aspen wrote:

A few mbar stronger than last run, and perhaps a hair further north.


The few MB could mean major hurricane or not.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#203 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:24 pm

0z HMON running. Let's see if it becomes another monster run...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#204 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:25 pm

The Hurricane Models are ready to rumble
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#205 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:28 pm

GFS is strong with 960 MB

HMON is having a slow start
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#206 Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:47 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:HMON is on crack.

https://i.imgur.com/PTHeqD4.png


A Category 5 in the Caribbean and near landfall is unthinkable. :eek: :cry:

Major hurricanes do occur in November.

Hurricane Lenny in 1999 was a Category 4 hurricane. It was probably a Category 5 hurricane.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#207 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:00 am

HWRF has a small core... here we go
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#208 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:09 am

HMON is starting to show itself :sick:

Image
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#209 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:28 am

+90 hours HMON run
Image
115 mph & 960 MB
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#210 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:34 am

HWRF starts pinhole, looks to go through an ERC around hours 69-75. Strengthens through the ERC though.

Also a 14mb drop in 6 hours (hr 90-96) on HMON
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#211 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:38 am

HMON +102 hours
:eek:
Only 140 mph winds & 930 MB? This thing is ready to explode.

Image
Last edited by Iceresistance on Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:41 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#212 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:39 am

Weather Dude wrote:HWRF starts pinhole, looks to go through an ERC around hours 69-75. Strengthens through the ERC though.

Also a 14mb drop in 6 hours (hr 90-96) on HMON

HMON also a EWRC, into a pinhole.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#213 Postby Owasso » Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:41 am

Iceresistance wrote:HMON +102 hours
:eek:
Only 115 mph winds & 930 MB? This thing is ready to explode.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon/2020111300/hmon_mslp_wind_98L_35.png


Drops 29mb in 12 hours. :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#214 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:42 am

HMON has an atomic bomb heading towards Belize... 926mb :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#215 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:43 am

Weather Dude wrote:HMON has an atomic bomb heading towards Belize... 926mb :eek:

And at 155 mph!? :eek: :eek:

Image
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#216 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:43 am

HWRF has a major at hour 87
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#217 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:47 am

HMON is slowing this thing down before Belize? And that this is HUGE! :eek:

Image
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#218 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:52 am

HMON has this weakening before landfall & slowing down, but why?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#219 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:54 am

Iceresistance wrote:HMON has this weakening before landfall & slowing down, but why?

Maybe the great blue hole is sucking it in :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#220 Postby Ubuntwo » Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:55 am

Iceresistance wrote:HMON has this weakening before landfall & slowing down, but why?

ERC
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