ATL: IOTA - Models

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Re: ATL: THIRTY - ONE - Models

#241 Postby aspen » Fri Nov 13, 2020 10:44 am

12z ICON doesn’t have landfall until the 96-102 hour range.

12z GFS is slightly faster, but it still has a later and further north landfall than the NHC forecast, somewhere around Monday night/Tuesday morning.
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Re: ATL: THIRTY - ONE - Models

#242 Postby kevin » Fri Nov 13, 2020 10:58 am

12z GFS a hair slower and a tiny bit further north, but nothing really significant. But it still makes landfall in Honduras at 96 hours with a peak of 964 mbar. For comparison, 06z also made landfall at 96 hours but that run was 6 hours ago so this run is 6 hours slower in terms of landfall.

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Last edited by kevin on Fri Nov 13, 2020 11:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: THIRTY - ONE - Models

#243 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Nov 13, 2020 11:01 am

Image
Image

Both the HWRF and the HMON have trended notably farther southwest through day three (seventy-two hours), so the EPS may be closer to reality for once.
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Re: ATL: THIRTY - ONE - Models

#244 Postby kevin » Fri Nov 13, 2020 11:45 am

Since people seemed to like the last one, here's the 12z version of the HWRF/HMON overviews. I don't have a lot of time right now so it might take a while before I can update them, but eventually it should help as a good way to see what the HWRF and HMON runs are trending towards now that we have a TD. HMON is a bit less intense than 06z (943 mbar instead of 926 mbar), but on the other hand its peak wind forecast has increased from 116 kts to 127 kts. HWRF is more in line with its previous run, but its intensification is halted around 80 hours due to an EWRC. HWRF does move a bit faster near the end and makes landfall at 117 hours.

HWRF
time / mslp (mbar) / wind (kts) / mslp 00z run
00 / 1006 / 36 / 1009 <- TS
03 / 1009 / 32 / 1009
06 / 1005 / 39 / 1008
09 / 1004 / 36 / 1007
12 / 1003 / 44 / 1006
15 / 1000 / 46 / 1007
18 / 1000 / 41 / 1007
21 / 998 / 47 / 1002
24 / 992 / 53 / 1004
27 / 992 / 55 / 1004
30 / 986 / 60 / 1003
33 / 985 / 60 / 1002
36 / 984 / 58 / 998
39 / 985 / 64 / 1000
42 / 982 / 68 / 996 <- cat 1
45 / 979 / 65 / 994
48 / 975 / 88 / 993
51 / 973 / 74 / 993
54 / 966 / 77 / 988
57 / 961 / 89 / 984 <- cat 2
60 / 953 / 99 / 980 <- cat 3
63 / 952 / 98 / 981
66 / 950 / 98 / 979
69 / 948 / 96 / 974
72 / 948 / 90 / 969
75 / 950 / 96 / 967
78 / 949 / 77 / 962
81 / 949 / 84 / 958
84 / 950 / 92 / 957
87 / 950 / 100 / 955
90 / 949 / 103 / 953
93 / 947 / 105 / 949
96 / 947 / 106 / 949
99 / 946 / 105 / 948
102 / 945 / 112 / 946
105 / 943 / 106 / 943
108 / 945 / 114 / 944 <- cat 4
111 / 946 / 106 / 945
114 / 947 / 103 / 946
117 / 950 / 95 / 948 <- landfall
120 / 955 / 81 / 951 - inland
123 / 960 / 69 / --- - inland
126 / 962 / 65 / --- - inland

HMON
time / mslp (mbar) / wind (kts) / mslp 00z run
00 / 1006 / 29 / 1008
03 / 1008 / 32 / 1008
06 / 1003 / 40 / 1007 <- TS
09 / 1002 / 36 / 1005
12 / 1004 / 38 / 1007
15 / 1005 / 39 / 1007
18 / 1003 / 35 / 1005
21 / 1000 / 40 / 1004
24 / 1001 / 43 / 1005
27 / 999 / 52 / 1005
30 / 994 / 51 / 1001
33 / 992 / 54 / 1000
36 / 991 / 50 / 1000
39 / 990 / 63 / 999
42 / 985 / 61 / 994
45 / 984 / 62 / 992
48 / 983 / 70 / 990 <- cat 1
51 / 981 / 71 / 990
54 / 977 / 65 / 984
57 / 975 / 74 / 983
60 / 972 / 71 / 981
63 / 970 / 77 / 979
66 / 966 / 76 / 976
69 / 961 / 82 / 972
72 / 960 / 88 / 967 <- cat 2
75 / 959 / 97 / 965 <- cat 3
78 / 956 / 99 / 961
81 / 950 / 108 / 957
84 / 946 / 120 / 954 <- cat 4
87 / 944 / 127 / 949
90 / 944 / 121 / 941
93 / 943 / 121 / 941
96 / 944 / 123 / 937
99 / 947 / 114 / 934
102 / 948 / 114 / 929
105 / 949 / 106 / 926
108 / 950 / 103 / 927
111 / 953 / 105 / 929
114 / 953 / 104 / 931
117 / 952 / 105 / 935
120 / 952 / 109 / 937
123 / 954 / 106 / ---
126 / 953 / 108 / ---
Last edited by kevin on Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:17 pm, edited 12 times in total.
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Re: ATL: THIRTY - ONE - Models

#245 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:22 pm

HMON at 959mb north of Honduras. HWRF at 961mb well before Honduras with a small core...
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Re: ATL: THIRTY - ONE - Models

#246 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:32 pm

ERC at hour 75 on HWRF
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Re: ATL: THIRTY - ONE - Models

#247 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:39 pm

Weather Dude wrote:ERC at hour 75 on HWRF

An ERC process is almost impossible to predict at this timeframe. Not sure if I would buy it.
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Re: ATL: THIRTY - ONE - Models

#248 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:43 pm

HMON has this rapidly weakening north of Honduras, why?
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Re: ATL: THIRTY - ONE - Models

#249 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:51 pm

HMON has a major hurricane heading for Belize
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Re: ATL: THIRTY - ONE - Models

#250 Postby underthwx » Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:53 pm

Iceresistance wrote:HMON has this rapidly weakening north of Honduras, why?

Maybe wind sheer?
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Re: ATL: THIRTY - ONE - Models

#251 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:55 pm

underthwx wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:HMON has this rapidly weakening north of Honduras, why?

Maybe wind sheer?

It's a maybe, someone said there is a hurricane wall of wind shear from Mexico to Cuba & Up to the Carolina Coast.
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Re: ATL: THIRTY - ONE - Models

#252 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:55 pm

underthwx wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:HMON has this rapidly weakening north of Honduras, why?

Maybe wind sheer?

Land interaction causing the circulation to shrink, but core still intact.
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Re: ATL: THIRTY - ONE - Models

#253 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:56 pm

supercane4867 wrote:
underthwx wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:HMON has this rapidly weakening north of Honduras, why?

Maybe wind sheer?

Land interaction causing the circulation to shrink, but core still intact.

But smaller usually means more aggressive spinning. . .
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Re: ATL: THIRTY - ONE - Models

#254 Postby kevin » Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:28 pm

Once again a massive EWRC in the HWRF run around 76 hours that makes the eye like 5 times larger.

Image

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Re: ATL: IOTA - Models

#255 Postby LarryWx » Fri Nov 13, 2020 3:56 pm

12Z UKMET: landfall far N Nicaragua; then moves WNW into NE Honduras and then to just N of Honduras, where it subsequently nearly stalls the last 12 hours:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 74.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.11.2020 0 13.9N 74.3W 1009 24
0000UTC 14.11.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 13.2N 77.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.11.2020 36 12.7N 77.6W 1004 31
1200UTC 15.11.2020 48 13.2N 78.8W 1001 38
0000UTC 16.11.2020 60 13.3N 80.9W 996 39
1200UTC 16.11.2020 72 13.6N 82.3W 990 50
0000UTC 17.11.2020 84 14.5N 83.4W 987 50
1200UTC 17.11.2020 96 15.3N 84.8W 994 40
0000UTC 18.11.2020 108 16.2N 86.3W 995 44
1200UTC 18.11.2020 120 16.1N 87.0W 995 41
0000UTC 19.11.2020 132 15.9N 86.9W 1003 35
1200UTC 19.11.2020 144 CEASED TRACKING
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Models

#256 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 13, 2020 5:11 pm

The models are ready to go

Who will be the most aggressive model at the 6 PM run?
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Models

#257 Postby kevin » Fri Nov 13, 2020 5:13 pm

Iceresistance wrote:The models are ready to go

Who will be the most aggressive model at the 6 PM run?


Not sure maybe HWRF since it cleared Honduras by the biggest margin in the 12z run, but it will be an interesting cycle indeed. Especially since this is the stage where you expect HMON and HWRF to slowly trend towards the consensus, but I'm not sure if that's gonna happen.
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Models

#258 Postby aspen » Fri Nov 13, 2020 5:22 pm

18z GFS isn’t really noteworthy — same intensity, same landfall point as the NHC.
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Models

#259 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 13, 2020 5:24 pm

kevin wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:The models are ready to go

Who will be the most aggressive model at the 6 PM run?


Not sure maybe HWRF since it cleared Honduras by the biggest margin in the 12z run, but it will be an interesting cycle indeed. Especially since this is the stage where you expect HMON and HWRF to slowly trend towards the consensus, but I'm not sure if that's gonna happen.

HMON was the winner in the Noon model run with 127 knots & 943 MB
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Models

#260 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 13, 2020 5:42 pm

GFS wants Kappa in the same general area as Iota execpt weaker & further south next week
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