ATL: IOTA - Advisories

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Re: ATL: IOTA - Advisories

#21 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 16, 2020 7:08 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
700 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

...WESTERN EYEWALL OF CATEGORY 5 IOTA IS OVER NICARAGUA...
...CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL OCCURRING IN CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 83.0W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ESE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB...27.11 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Providencia
* San Andres
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to the
Guatemala/Honduras border
* Bay Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should have already been completed.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Iota was located near
latitude 13.6 North, longitude 83.0 West. Iota is moving toward the
west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is forecast
through landfall. After landfall, a westward to west-southwestward
motion is expected. On the forecast track, the core of Iota will
make landfall within the hurricane warning area in northeastern
Nicaragua within the next few hours, and dissipate over Central
America on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected until landfall, but
rapid weakening is forecast after Iota moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). Puerto Cabezas airport in Nicaragua recently
reported sustained winds of 51 mph (82 km/h) with a gust to 81 mph
(130 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 918 mb (27.11 inches)
based on Air Force reconnaissance data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Iota's eyewall
moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua tonight
with tropical storm conditions already ongoing. Tropical storm
conditions are likely on the island of Providencia and San Andres
for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in
the Tropical Storm Warning area in Nicaragua and will begin in the
Tropical Storm Warning area in Honduras later tonight.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast Guatemala and southern
Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm). Isolated maximum totals of
30 inches (750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast
Nicaragua into northern Honduras.

El Salvador and Panama: 6 to 10 inches (150 to 250 mm), with
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, and Colombia during
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Roberts

NNNN
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Advisories

#22 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:59 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
1000 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IOTA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL VERY SOON...
...CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL OCCURRING IN CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 83.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM S OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Providencia
* San Andres
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to the
Guatemala/Honduras border
* Bay Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should have already been completed.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located
near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 83.4 West. Iota is moving toward
the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Iota
is expected to make landfall in northeastern Nicaragua during the
next hour or two and move inland across northern Nicaragua and
southern Honduras on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Iota is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is forecast
after Iota moves inland, and it is expected to dissipate over
Central America on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). Puerto Cabezas airport in Nicaragua recently reported
sustained winds of 70 mph (113 km/h) with a gust to 103 mph
(166 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air
Force reconnaissance aircraft is 920 mb (27.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is occurring near Iota's eyewall and
these winds will spread inland across northern Nicaragua during the
next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the
Tropical Storm Warning areas in Nicaragua and Honduras. Tropical
storm conditions should subside during the next few hours on the
islands of Providencia and San Andres.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast Guatemala and southern
Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm). Isolated maximum totals of
30 inches (750 mm) across northeast Nicaragua and northern Honduras.

El Salvador and Panama: 6 to 10 inches (150 to 250 mm), with
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Roberts


Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
1000 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

Iota is about to make landfall on the coast of northeastern
Nicaragua about 30 miles south-southwest of Puerto Cabezas.
Satellite images show that the hurricane is very powerful with a
circular well-defined eye and a fairly symmetric convective ring
surrounding that feature. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters were
investigating Iota earlier this evening and found that the minimum
pressure was fairly steady at around 920 mb. Based on the aircraft
data, including 143-kt flight-level winds, the initial intensity is
set at 135 kt.

Iota is moving to the west at about 8 kt and this general motion is
expected to continue during the next couple of days, taking the
cyclone across northern Nicaragua and southern Honduras. Rapid
weakening is forecast as Iota moves inland, and the cyclone is
anticipated to dissipate over the rugged terrain of Central America
on Wednesday. The NHC track forecast follows the various consensus
models, and the intensity forecast is close to the Decay-SHIPS
guidance.

This is a catastrophic situation for northeastern Nicaragua with an
extreme storm surge of 15-20 ft forecast along with destructive
winds and potentially 30 inches of rainfall. In addition, the
situation is exacerbated by the fact that Iota is making landfall in
almost the exact same location that category 4 Hurricane Eta did a
little less than two weeks ago.

Key Messages:

1. Iota is a catastrophic hurricane. Extreme winds and a
life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the
coast of northeastern Nicaragua during the next several hours, where
a hurricane warning is in effect.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected
through Thursday across portions of Central America due to the heavy
rainfall. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua
could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there,
resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 13.6N 83.4W 135 KT 155 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
12H 17/1200Z 13.7N 84.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
24H 18/0000Z 13.8N 86.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/1200Z 13.8N 88.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Roberts
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Advisories

#23 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 17, 2020 5:00 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
400 AM EST Tue Nov 17 2020

...IOTA RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING,
AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 84.3W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM ENE OF EL PIA NICARAGUA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Colombia has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Providencia and San Andres Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to the
Guatemala/Honduras border
* Bay Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should have already been completed.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located
near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 84.3 West. Iota is moving toward
the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Iota
will move farther inland across northern Nicaragua today, and move
across southern Honduras tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Iota is now a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional rapid weakening is expected today
into Wednesday, and Iota is forecast to dissipate over Central
America by Wednesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
175 miles (280 km). Puerto Cabezas airport in Nicaragua recently
reported a sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h) and a gust to 77 mph
(124 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 5 to 10 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Significant wind damage is occurring near Iota's eyewall and
these winds will spread farther inland across northern Nicaragua
during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are
occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning areas in Nicaragua and
Honduras.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast and central Guatemala and
southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 30 inches (750 mm).

El Salvador and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
400 AM EST Tue Nov 17 2020

Iota made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane along the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua around 0340 UTC, near the town of Haulover.
Iota's landfall location was about 12 nmi south of where Category 4
Hurricane Eta made landfall earlier this month on November 3rd. Due
to the previous damage caused by Eta, wind reports have been
extremely limited. There was an amateur radio report from Club de
Radio-Experimentadores de Nicaragua of 124 mph (200 Km/h) winds and
roofs damaged in the town of Wilbi, Nicaragua. However, it is
uncertain if these were sustained winds or wind gusts. At the Puerto
Cabezas, Nicaragua, airport at 0253 UTC, a sustained wind of 72 kt
(134 km/h) and a gust to 98 kt (182 km/h) were measured. The initial
intensity of 90 kt is based on the Decay-SHIPS model's weakening
rate for inland tropical cyclones, and the remnant eye feature
still noted in infrared satellite imagery.

Iota is moving westward, or 270/08 kt. Iota is expected to continue
moving generally westward today into early Wednesday, as the cyclone
moves along he southern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge
located over the northern Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, and
southeastern Mexico. The lower levels of the ridge are forecast to
push southward behind a cold front, which will force Iota and its
remnants west-southwestward across southern Honduras and El Salvador
in the 24-36 hour period. Iota is expected to dissipate by 48 hours,
with the remnant mid-level circulation possibly drifting westward
into the eastern North Pacific basin. The new NHC track forecast is
essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track, and
closely follows a blend of the consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and
FSSE.

Additional rapid weakening is forecast for the next 36 hours as Iota
moves farther inland over the rugged terrain of Nicaragua and
Honduras. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and closely follows the Decay-SHIPS intensity guidance.

Although Hurricane Iota has moved inland, damaging winds are
occurring inland, and also along the northeastern coast of
Nicaragua, where a significant storm surge of 5-10 ft is still
likely occurring. In addition to the destructive winds and storm
surge, there will be the potential for up to 30 inches of rainfall.
The situation is exacerbated by the fact that Iota is moving across
the same general location that Category 4 Hurricane Eta did a
little less than two weeks ago.

Key Messages:

1. Iota is still a significant hurricane. Damaging winds and a
life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the
coast of northeastern Nicaragua during the next several hours, where
a hurricane warning is in effect.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected
through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy
rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of
Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by Hurricane
Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially
catastrophic impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 13.7N 84.3W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
12H 17/1800Z 13.8N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 18/0600Z 13.8N 87.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/1800Z 13.7N 89.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Advisories

#24 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 17, 2020 7:00 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
700 AM EST Tue Nov 17 2020

...IOTA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING, LANDSLIDES,
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND POWERFUL WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 84.8W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF EL PIA NICARAGUA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to the
Guatemala/Honduras border
* Bay Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located
near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 84.8 West. Iota is moving toward
the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Iota
will move farther inland across northern Nicaragua today, and move
across southern Honduras tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (135 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is expected today
into Wednesday, and Iota is forecast to dissipate over Central
America by Wednesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 5 to 10 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Significant wind damage is occurring near Iota's eyewall and
these winds will spread farther inland across northern Nicaragua
during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are
occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning areas in Nicaragua and
Honduras.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast and central Guatemala and
southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 30 inches (750 mm).

El Salvador and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Advisories

#25 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 17, 2020 9:43 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
900 AM CST Tue Nov 17 2020

...IOTA COULD PRODUCE POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUD SLIDES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 85.2W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM E OF TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras have changed the
Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for their
respective coastlines from Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta
Patuca Honduras.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bluefields Nicaragua to the Guatemala/Honduras border
* Bay Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located
near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 85.2 West. Iota is moving toward
the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). The hurricane will move farther
inland across northern Nicaragua today, and move across southern
Honduras tonight before dissipating near El Salvador early
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Iota should weaken to a tropical storm this
afternoon, a tropical depression this evening, and degenerate into
a remnant low pressure area on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

WIND: Strong winds are occuring near the center of Iota and
these winds will spread farther inland across northern Nicaragua
during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are
occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning areas in Nicaragua and
Honduras.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast and central Guatemala and
southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 30 inches (750 mm).

El Salvador and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Blake



Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
900 AM CST Tue Nov 17 2020

Satellite images indicate that Iota continues to weaken over land
with warming cloud tops near the center. It still has a small core,
however, so the initial wind speed will be lowered to 65 kt on this
advisory, in line with the Decay-SHIPS model. Further weakening is
expected today as Iota moves westward at about 10 kt, with Iota
becoming a tropical storm this afternoon, and a tropical depression
tonight. Iota should degenerate into a remnant low near El Salvador
by tomorrow due to the rugged terrain of central America.

While the winds of Iota are weakening, there are still life-
threatening hazards ongoing for central America, including flash
flooding and mud slides, which could result in potentially
catastrophic effects, especially when compounded upon Hurricane
Eta's destruction from a couple of weeks ago.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected
through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy
rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of
Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by Hurricane
Eta’s recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially
catastrophic impacts.

2. Strong winds, primarily close to the center of Iota and along
the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, are still expected for the
next several hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 13.7N 85.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
12H 18/0000Z 13.7N 86.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 18/1200Z 13.7N 88.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Advisories

#26 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 17, 2020 12:46 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
1200 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA POSSIBLE FROM IOTA THROUGH THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 85.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...160 KM E OF TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bluefields Nicaragua to the Guatemala/Honduras border
* Bay Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 85.7 West. Iota is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). The storm will move
farther inland across northern Nicaragua today, and move across
southern Honduras tonight before dissipating near El Salvador early
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (105 km/h)
with higher gusts. Iota should weaken to a tropical depression this
evening, and degenerate into a remnant low pressure area on
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

WIND: Strong winds are occuring near the center of Iota and
these winds will spread farther inland across northern Nicaragua
and southern Honduras during the next several hours. Tropical
storm conditions are also occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning
areas along the coast in Nicaragua and Honduras.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast and central Guatemala and
southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 30 inches (750 mm).

El Salvador and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Advisories

#27 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 17, 2020 3:47 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Iota Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
300 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020

...THREAT OF CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM IOTA...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 86.2W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ESE OF TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Nicaragua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the east coast of Nicaragua from Bluefields northward
to the border with Honduras.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Honduras
* Bay Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 86.2 West. Iota is
moving toward the west near 12 mph. The center of the storm will
move into southern Honduras tonight before dissipating near El
Salvador early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Iota should weaken to a tropical depression this
evening and degenerate into a remnant low pressure area on
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

WIND: Strong winds are occuring near the center of Iota and
these winds will spread farther inland across southern Honduras
during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are also
occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning areas along the coast in
Honduras.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast and central Guatemala and
southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 30 inches (750 mm).

El Salvador and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
300 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020

The cloud pattern of Iota has slowly degraded during the day, with
warming of the cloud tops, but it has remained fairly well organized
for a system that's been over land for about 18 hours. The initial
wind speed is lowered to 50 kt using the Decay-SHIPS guidance. Iota
will encounter higher terrain soon while it moves westward at about
10 kt, so it should quickly weaken tonight, and it will probably
degenerate into a weak low near El Salvador overnight. None of the
available guidance show regeneration in the eastern Pacific, perhaps
due to cooler SSTs with all of the recent gap wind events, and
plenty of drier air in the vicinity.

Iota is still expected to produce very serious hazards while it is
over central America, including flash flooding and mud slides,
These hazards could result in potentially catastrophic effects,
especially when compounded upon Hurricane Eta's destruction from a
couple of weeks ago.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected
through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy
rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of
Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by Hurricane
Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially
catastrophic impacts.

2. Strong winds, primarily close to the center of Iota and along
the coast of Honduras, are still expected for the next several
hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 13.7N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
12H 18/0600Z 13.6N 87.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Advisories

#28 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 17, 2020 6:43 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
600 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020

...CENTER OF ETA MOVING INTO SOUTHERN HONDURAS...
...THREAT OF CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM IOTA...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 86.9W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Honduras
* Bay Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 86.9 West. Iota is
moving toward the west near 12 mph. The center of the storm will
move into southern Honduras tonight before dissipating near El
Salvador on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (80 km/h)
with higher gusts. Iota should weaken to a tropical depression this
evening or tonight and degenerate into a remnant low pressure area
on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

WIND: Strong winds are occuring near the center of Iota and
these winds will spread farther inland across southern Honduras
during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are also
occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning areas along the coast in
Honduras.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast and central Guatemala and
southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 30 inches (750 mm).

El Salvador and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Advisories

#29 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 17, 2020 9:36 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Iota Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
900 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020

...IOTA WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER SOUTHERN HONDURAS...
...THREAT OF CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 87.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Punta Castilla eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua
border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Honduras west of Punta Castilla to the
Honduras/Guatemala border
* Bay Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 87.3 West. Iota is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a westward to
west-southwestward motion is expected tonight and Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Iota should move across portions
of southern Honduras and El Salvador before the system dissipates
on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is forecast, and
Iota should weaken to a tropical depression tonight and degenerate
into a remnant low pressure area on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center, mainly along the coast in the Tropical Storm
Warning area. La Ceiba, Honduras, reported a wind gust of 58 mph
(93 km/h) during the past few hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm conditions will continue for a few more hours
near the center of Iota and in the Tropical Storm Warning area well
to the north of the center.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following additional
rainfall accumulations through Thursday:

El Salvador, Panama, western Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southern
Belize : 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum
totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven




Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
900 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020

Most of the deep convection associated with Iota has weakened
during the past several hours, with the primary remaining
convection now in a band well removed from the center in the
northwestern semicircle. The initial intensity is reduced to 35
kt, and these winds are possibly occuring in two areas - a small
area near what is left of the inner core and along the coast of
Honduras in the Tropical Storm warning area. Iota should continue
to quickly weaken, with the system expected to drop below
tropical-storm strength during the next few hours and to dissipate
completely between 12-24 h. At this time, the available guidance
is not bullish on any regeneration of the system over the Pacific.

The initial motion is 270/10. The cyclone or its remnants should
move westward to west-southwestward before dissipation occurs.

Iota is still expected to produce very serious hazards while it is
over central America, including flash flooding and mud slides,
These hazards could result in potentially catastrophic effects,
especially when compounded upon Hurricane Eta's destruction from a
couple of weeks ago.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected
through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy
rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of
Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by saturated
soils in place, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic
impacts.

2. Tropical-storm conditions, primarily close to the center of
Iota and along the coast of Honduras, are still expected for the
next few hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 13.7N 87.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 18/1200Z 13.4N 88.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Advisories

#30 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:30 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Iota Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
300 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

...IOTA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER EL SALVADOR...
...THREAT OF CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 88.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NW OF EL PAPALON EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the northern coast of Honduras has
been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Iota was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 88.3 West. Iota is
moving toward the west-southwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through today. On the
forecast track, the center of Iota will move across El Salvador
before the system dissipates later today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Iota is
expected to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low pressure
system later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following additional
rainfall accumulations through Thursday:

Portions of Honduras, Guatemala, southern Belize: 4 to 8 inches (100
to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

Portions of Nicaragua and El Salvador: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm).

This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Depression Iota Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
300 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

Deep convection is no longer occurring near Iota's center, but
curved broken bands of convection still exist within 100 n mi in
the northern semicircle. For that reason, Iota is being maintained
as a tropical cyclone. Earlier ASCAT and ScatSat scatterometer data
between 0200-0300 UTC indicated surface winds of 30-32 kt offshore
the north-central coast of Honduras, while tropical-storm-force wind
gusts were noted in surface observations along the north coast of
Honduras. As a result, the intensity was maintained at 35 kt at the
0600 UTC synoptic time. Since then, however, winds have decreased
along the coast and offshore, which justify making Iota a 30-kt
tropical depression at the 0900 UTC advisory time. Therefore, the
Tropical Storm Warning for the northern coast of Honduras has been
discontinued.

The initial motion estimate is now 255/11 kt. Iota or its remnants
should continue moving west-southwestward across El Salvador,
possibly emerging over the eastern North Pacific Ocean as a
post-tropical cyclone before dissipation occurs by late today. At
this time, most of the available NHC model guidance does not show
regeneration over the eastern Pacific, with only the HWRF and HMON
regional models showing brief redevelopment to tropical depression
status on Thursday after Iota degenerates to a remnant low later
today. However, this is considered a low probability alternate
scenario due to unfavorable upper-level winds expected across the
eastern North Pacific.

Iota is still expected to produce very serious flash flooding and
mud slides. These hazards could result in potentially catastrophic
effects, especially when compounded upon Hurricane Eta's destruction
from a couple of weeks ago.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected
through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy
rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of
Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by saturated
soils in place, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic
impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 13.7N 88.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND EL SALVADOR
12H 18/1800Z 13.0N 89.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Advisories

#31 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:48 am

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Iota Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
900 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

...IOTA DISSIPATES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...
...HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 89.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM WNW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the remnants of Iota were located near
latitude 13.8 North, longitude 89.5 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

RAINFALL: The remnants of Iota are expected to produce the
following additional rainfall accumulations through Thursday:

Portions of Honduras, Guatemala, southern Belize: 4 to 8 inches (100
to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

Portions of Nicaragua and El Salvador: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm).

This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnants,
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Pasch



Remnants Of Iota Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
900 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

Although the system still has broad mid-level rotation, synoptic
observations from Central America show that the surface circulation
of Iota has dissipated. Its remnants are located somewhere near El
Salvador.

Although the remnants of Iota are likely to move into the eastern
North Pacific during the next day or so, the global models do not
show regeneration of the system over that basin.

Iota is still expected to produce very serious flash flooding and
mudslides, with potentially catastrophic effects, over
portions of Central America.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Iota.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected
through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy
rainfall from the remnants of Iota. Flooding and mudslides across
portions of Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated
by saturated soils in place, resulting in significant to
potentially catastrophic impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 13.8N 89.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF IOTA
12H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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