ARB: GATI - Ex-Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

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Re: ARB: Gati - Cyclonic Storm

#61 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:39 pm

Image
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REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 49.7E.
23NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 416
NM EAST OF DJIBOUTI (CITY), HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 03A HAS BEEN DECAPITATED, WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL ROTATION MOVING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE WEST, WHILE THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME EXPOSED OVER
NORTHEASTERN SOMALIA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC, SUPPORTED BY ANALYSIS OF THE
222156Z AMSR2 91GHZ COLORPCT MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH CLEARLY SHOWS THE
LLCC EAST OF THE REMNANT CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, DUE TO A LACK OF ESTIMATES
OVER LAND, AND PRIMARILY RELIES UPON AN EMPIRICAL DECAY MODEL AFTER
LANDFALL AND THE OVERALL STRUCTURE. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND AS IT
DECAYS FURTHER, WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN SOMILIA COASTLINE. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DECAY OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN, FULLY
DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING THE
JTWC TRACK, WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH IS THE SOLE
OUTLIER TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.//
NNNN


BULLETIN NO. : 10(ARB/04/2020)

The severe cyclonic storm “GATI” over north Somalia moved nearly westwards with a speed
of about 09 kmph during past 06 hours and weakened into a Cyclonic Storm over the same region and lay
centred at 0530 hrs IST of 23rd November 2020 near Latitude 10.5°N and Longitude 50.0°E, 150 km
south-southwest of Ras Binnah (Somalia). It is very likely to move nearly westwards and weaken gradually
into a deep depression during next 6 hours.
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Re: ARB: Gati - Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

#62 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Nov 23, 2020 9:50 am

Image
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 11.6N 48.2E.
23NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (GATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 223
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION. A
231023Z AMSR2 89GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED, DEFINED LLCC WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
35 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2.5
(35 KNOTS) AND A SHIP REPORT OF 32 KNOTS, LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 47.6E
ABOUT 85NM NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOMALIA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE
TO LAND INTERACTION AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z
AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNINGS (WTIO32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re: ARB: Gati - Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

#63 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Nov 23, 2020 9:54 am

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Re: ARB: Gati - Depression

#64 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Nov 23, 2020 10:32 pm

Bye bye!
03A GATI 201124 0000 11.3N 46.6E IO 30 1007

Image

REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 47.1E.
23NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 156NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, BROADENING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PROVIDING FAIR CONFIDENCE FOR THE INITIAL POSITION. A 231824Z METOP-B MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS DECAYING
STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE CELLS DISPLACED WEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30
KNOTS HEDGING BELOW THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS) BASED ON A CI ESTIMATE OF 1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM DEMS
AND 1.7 (27 KNOTS) BY ADT. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOMALIA, DISSIPATING BY TAU
12. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

BULLETIN NO. : 15(ARB/04/2020)

The Deep Depression over Gulf of Aden and adjoining Somalia moved west-southwestwards with a speed of about 09 kmph during past 06 hours, weakened into a Depression and lay centered at 0530 hrs IST of 24th November 2020 over the Gulf of Aden and adjoining Somalia near Latitude 11.6°N and Longitude 47.0°E, about 460 km west-northwest of Ras Binnah (Somalia). It is very likely to move nearly west-southwestwards and weaken into a well marked low pressure area during next 12 hours.
Last edited by doomhaMwx on Tue Nov 24, 2020 3:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ARB: Gati - Depression

#65 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Nov 23, 2020 10:34 pm

"8 Yemeni fishermen killed in Hafun, many houses destroyed, communication has been lost | In Qandala many boats were wrecked | In Ufayn, about 10,000 animals are reported to have died in the storm"

 https://twitter.com/radiodaljir/status/1330944615101460481


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Re: ARB: GATI - Ex-Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

#66 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Nov 25, 2020 9:20 am

Gati's remnants over the western Gulf of Aden looked quite good earlier that JTWC gave it a medium chance of redevelopment. So rare to see a tropical weather advisory be issued this far west in the basin.

Image
Image
ABIO10 PGTW 250930

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 03A) HAS PERSISTED
NEAR 10.8N 44.8E, APPROXIMATELY 110 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAMP
LEMONNIER, DJIBOUTI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 250325Z SSMIS 91 GHZ PASS DEPICTS
AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. A
PARTIAL 250523Z ASCAT-A PASS REVEALS 17-23 KT WINDS IN THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY. REMNANTS OF TC 03A IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE
DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM
(28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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