BoB: Nivar - Cyclonic Storm

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BoB: Nivar - Cyclonic Storm

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Nov 21, 2020 12:28 am

97B INVEST 201121 0000 5.0N 90.0E IO 15 0
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Re: BoB: INVEST 97B

#2 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Nov 21, 2020 3:05 am

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 21.11.2020

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF YESTERDAY’S CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL (BOB), A
LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED OVER EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN AND
ADJOINING CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH BOB IN THE MORNING (0300 UTC) OF
TODAY, THE 21ST NOVEMBER. IT IS LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION
OVER SOUTHWEST BOB DURING NEXT 48 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS SRILANKA-TAMILNADU COASTS DURING
SUBSEQUENT 48 HOURS AND REACH TAMILNADU & PUDUCHERRY COAST ON 25TH
NOVEMBER, 2020.

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Re: BoB: INVEST 97B

#3 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Nov 21, 2020 5:32 pm

ABIO10 PGTW 212100

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5.8N 88.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.0N 87.3E, APPROXIMATELY 504 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD WITH SCATTERED
DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING TO THE NORTHWEST. A 1202Z MHS NOAA-19
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SMALL AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET
TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. 97B IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE
AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING SLIGHTLY
OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97B WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD,
INTENSIFYING TO WARNING THRESHOLD OVER SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: BoB: INVEST 97B

#4 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Nov 22, 2020 3:23 am

FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 22.11.2020 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 22.11.2020.

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF
BENGAL HAS BECOME WELL MARKED OVER THE SAME REGION. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL DURING NEXT
24 HOURS AND INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A CYCLONIC STORM DURING SUBSEQUENT
24 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS TAMIL NADU
AND PUDUCHERRY COASTS BETWEEN KARAIKAL AND MAHABALIPURAM AROUND 25TH
NOVEMBER 2020 NOON/AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WHILE MOVING
NORTHWESTWARDS, WOULD SKIRT NORTHEAST SRILANKA COAST ON 24TH.

ABIO10 PGTW 220630

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.0N 87.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 85.7E, APPROXIMATELY 462 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 220418Z METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL FORMATIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION. INVEST 97B IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE
(15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 97B WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD, INTENSIFYING TO WARNING
THRESHOLD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

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Re: BoB: INVEST 97B - Well-Marked Low

#5 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Nov 22, 2020 12:30 pm

TCFA issued.

Image
WTIO21 PGTW 221530

REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.5N 85.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 85.4E, APPROXIMATELY 423 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 220800Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A BROAD
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97B WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD INDIA OVER THE NEXT 24-
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
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Re: BoB: INVEST 97B - Well-Marked Low

#6 Postby aspen » Sun Nov 22, 2020 3:07 pm

HWRF has been consistent with a MH intensity system (945-955 mbar) making landfall late Tuesday.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

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Re: BoB: DEPRESSION 97B

#7 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:50 pm

TIME OF ISSUE: 0830 HOURS IST DATED: 23.11.2020
FROM: INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

The Depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved nearly
northwestwards in past 06 hours and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of 23rd November 2020 near Latitude
9.3°N and Longitude 84.5°E, about 600 km south-southeast of Puducherry and 630 km south-southeast of
Chennai. It is very likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. It is very likely to move
northwestwards and cross Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts between Karaikal and Mamallapuram
around 25th November 2020 afternoon.

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Re: BoB: INVEST 97B - Well-Marked Low

#8 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Nov 23, 2020 3:32 am

This broad system is taking its time to intensify. Models (incl HWRF) have come into better agreement on a strong TS or a cat 1 cyclone hitting S India's Tamil Nadu in ~48hrs time. IMD's current 60kt landfall forecast looks reasonable.

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Re: BoB: DEPRESSION 97B

#9 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Nov 23, 2020 10:11 am

Image
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 10.1N 83.8E.
23NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282
NM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING. HOWEVER, A 231317Z SSMIS 91GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE NORTH QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE WEST QUADRANT. OVERALL, THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST VALUES OF
29-30C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY. TC 04B IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU
36, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DIGS
INTO INDIA. CONSEQUENTLY, TC 04B WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A
BREAK IN THE STR THROUGH TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
DESPITE A SLOW START, TC O4B IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY TO A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 48 DUE PRIMARILY TO THE VERY
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF EASTERN INDIA AND WILL WEAKEN
RAPIDLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL AND TRACKING INLAND OVER THE DECCAN
PLATEAU WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 96. THE REMNANTS OF TC 04B
MAY TRACK OVER THE ARABIAN SEA, HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW PROBABILITY OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.
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Re: BoB: NIVAR - Cyclonic Storm

#10 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Nov 23, 2020 10:40 pm

Now named "Nivar".

Image

TIME OF ISSUE: 0830 HOURS IST DATED: 24.11.2020
FROM: INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

The Deep Depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards with a speed of 05 kmph during past 06 hours, intensified into a Cyclonic Strom “NIVAR” and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of 24th November, 2020 over southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 10.0°N and longitude 83.0°E, about 410 km east-southeast of Puducherry and 450 km southeast of Chennai. It is very likely to intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. It is very likely to move west-northwestwards for next 12 hours and then northwestwards. It is very likely to cross Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts between Karaikal and Mamallapuram around Puducherry during 25th November 2020 evening as a severe cyclonic storm with a wind speed of 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph.

Image

REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 9.5N 83.1E.
24NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 839 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION
DISPLACED WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 232345Z 89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SPIRAL BANDING IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC PROVIDING GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR THE INITIAL POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST VALUES OF 29-30C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, ALIGNING WITH THE PGTW AND DEMS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND A 1947Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 40 KNOTS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WAS UNEXPECTED, DESPITE THIS MOTION TC 04B IS STILL FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS IN WEST OF INDIA. CONSEQUENTLY, TC 04B WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SPREAD OF 263 NAUTICAL MILES BETWEEN NUMERICAL MODELS AT TAU 72, LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. DESPITE A SLOW START, TC O4B HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS, PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL JUST BEFORE TAU
48 PARTIALLY DUE TO THE VERY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 04B WILL WEAKEN TO 55 KNOTS AT TAU 48 AFTER MAKING LANDFALL AND THEN WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER MAKING LANDFALL AND TRACKING INLAND OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 72. THE REMNANTS
OF TC 04B MAY TRACK OVER THE ARABIAN SEA, HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW PROBABILITY OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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Re: BoB: Nivar - Severe Cyclonic Storm

#11 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:49 pm

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Re: BoB: Nivar - Cyclonic Storm

#12 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Nov 24, 2020 8:17 pm

Almost to Cat 1
04B NIVAR 201125 0000 11.1N 82.6E IO 60 988
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Re: BoB: Nivar - Cyclonic Storm

#13 Postby FireRat » Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:31 pm

lol wow, looking at the main page you'd hardly know there was a cyclone about to make landfall in southern India in 12 hours.

This storm looks pretty sneaky
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Re: BoB: Nivar - Severe Cyclonic Storm

#14 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Nov 24, 2020 11:46 pm

Both JTWC and IMD expect landfall as a 70/75kt cyclone. However, it probably needs to quickly build an inner core (which it still lacks based on microwave and radar) if it wants to get that strong since landfall could be as early as ~12hrs from now.

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Re: BoB: Nivar - Severe Cyclonic Storm

#15 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Nov 25, 2020 3:49 am

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Re: BoB: Nivar - Severe Cyclonic Storm

#16 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Nov 25, 2020 4:23 am

Image
04B NIVAR 201125 0600 11.2N 81.8E IO 60 990

TIME OF ISSUE: 1345 HOURS IST DATED: 25.11.2020
FROM: INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

The severe cyclonic storm NIVAR over southwest Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards with a speed of 11 kmph during past six hours and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of 25th November, 2020 over southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 11.0°N and longitude 81.3°E, about 180 km east-southeast of Cuddalore, about 190 km east southeast of Puducherry and 250 km south southeast of Chennai. It is very likely to intensify further into a very severe cyclonic storm during next 06 hours.
It is very likely to move northwestwards and cross Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts between Karaikal and Mamallapuram around Puducherry during mid-night of 25th and early hours of 26th November 2020 as a very severe cyclonic storm with a wind speed of 120-130 kmph gusting to 145 kmph.
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Re: BoB: Nivar - Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

#17 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Nov 25, 2020 7:32 am

IMD has upgraded it to a 65kt VSCS.
TIME OF ISSUE: 1630 HOURS IST DATED: 25.11.2020
FROM: INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

The severe cyclonic storm NIVAR over southwest Bay of Bengal moved west northwestwards with a speed of 16 kmph during past six hours and intensified into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm and lay centred at 1430 hrs IST of 25th November, 2020 over southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 11.2°N and longitude 81.0°E, about 90 km east-southeast of Cuddalore, about 150 km east southeast of Puducherry and 220 km south southeast of Chennai.
It is very likely to move northwestwards and cross Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts between Karaikal and Mamallapuram around Puducherry during mid-night of 25th and early hours of 26th November 2020 as a very severe cyclonic storm with a wind speed of 120-130 kmph gusting to 145 kmph.

Image


JTWC 70kts.

Image
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 80.7E.
25NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B (NIVAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 784NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO
AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURES PRESENT IN A TIMELY 251205Z GMI 37 GHZ IMAGE AND THE LOW LEVEL RAIN BANDS THAT WRAP AROUND THE LLCC IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T4.5 (77 KTS) BASED ON A LOWER 250814Z CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KTS. TC NIVAR IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST POLEWARD AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THESE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL JUST PRIOR TO TAU 12. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF CHENNAI, INDIA, TC NIVAR WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN. INCREASING VWS AFTER TAU 24, ALONG WITH TERRAIN EFFECTS, WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING AND RESULT IN DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH LANDFALL WITH A MAXIMUM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS OF 34 NM AT THAT TIME. THEREAFTER, MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE UKMET SOLUTIONS PROVIDING A NORTHWARD TRACK THAT BRINGS THE VORTEX BACK INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL, IN CONTRAST TO THE REMAINING MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEMBERS THAT BRING THE SYSTEM CENTER INLAND. DESPITE THIS SPREAD IN THE LATER TAUS, THIS MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED JUST SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN EFFORT TO OFFSET THE NORTHWARD BIAS OF THE UKMET MODEL SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.//
NNNN
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Re: BoB: Nivar - Severe Cyclonic Storm

#18 Postby AJC3 » Wed Nov 25, 2020 9:41 am

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020io04/4kmirimg/2020io04_4kmirimg_202011250845.gif
04B NIVAR 201125 0600 11.2N 81.8E IO 60 990

TIME OF ISSUE: 1345 HOURS IST DATED: 25.11.2020
FROM: INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

The severe cyclonic storm NIVAR over southwest Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards with a speed of 11 kmph during past six hours and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of 25th November, 2020 over southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 11.0°N and longitude 81.3°E, about 180 km east-southeast of Cuddalore, about 190 km east southeast of Puducherry and 250 km south southeast of Chennai. It is very likely to intensify further into a very severe cyclonic storm during next 06 hours.
It is very likely to move northwestwards and cross Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts between Karaikal and Mamallapuram around Puducherry during mid-night of 25th and early hours of 26th November 2020 as a very severe cyclonic storm with a wind speed of 120-130 kmph gusting to 145 kmph.


That looks like a cold overshooting top disguising itself as a warm spot eye. The central convective mass has all the earmarks (sharp temperature gradient at the edge of a cold cloud canopy, CI striations) of a sheared, developing Central Cold Cover (CCC) pattern. This may keep a lid on intensification up until landfall, but boy will this be a rainmaker.
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Re: BoB: Nivar - Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

#19 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Nov 25, 2020 1:00 pm

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Re: BoB: Nivar - Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

#20 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Nov 25, 2020 1:14 pm

TPIO11 PGTW 251758

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR)

B. 25/1715Z

C. 11.92N

D. 79.70E

E. FIVE/GOES-IO

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
25/1205Z 11.63N 80.98E GPMI
25/1252Z 11.83N 80.97E SSMS


BERMEA

04B NIVAR 201125 1800 12.0N 80.1E IO 70 981

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