BoB: Nivar - Cyclonic Storm

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2396
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: BoB: Nivar - Cyclonic Storm

#21 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Nov 25, 2020 3:28 pm

A buoy off Chennai, N of the center, recorded sustained winds of 24.1m/s (87kph) a few hours ago. Srfc obs show more of a significant rain event rather than wind. Some stations had >200mm in the last ~15hrs.
0 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2396
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: BoB: Nivar - Cyclonic Storm

#22 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Nov 25, 2020 10:07 pm

Image
04B NIVAR 201126 0000 12.3N 79.4E IO 55 991

TC ADVISORY
TCAC: NEW DELHI
DTG: 20201126/0000Z
TC: NIVAR
NR: 11
PSN: N1224 E07936
MOV:NW06KT
INTST CHANGE: WKN
C: 0982HPA
MAX WIND: 50KT
FCST PSN+06HR: 26/0600Z N1248 E07912
FCST MAX WIND +06HRS: 35 KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 26/1200Z N1312 E07848
FCST MAX WIND +12HRS: 30 KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 26/1800Z N1336 E07824
FCST MAX WIND +18HRS: 20 KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 27/0000Z N1400 E07800
FCST MAX WIND +18HRS: 10 KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20201126/0900Z
0 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2396
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: BoB: Nivar - Cyclonic Storm

#23 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Nov 26, 2020 5:22 am

Other than the aforementioned buoy which recorded 47kt sustained winds, I couldn't find any stations near/along the coast that have observed at least TS-force sustained winds from Nivar. The min SLP at Puducherry, just ~30km S of where landfall occurred, was only 997.5 mb (11/25 2050Z). Also, the highest estimate from SATCON and ADT throughout Nivar's existence is actually only 60kts (61kts from ADT to be exact). Estimates from these two platforms on 11/25 12Z onwards (6-8hrs before landfall) ranged from 54-58kts with a pressure of around 990mb. I'm not convinced Nivar reached cyclone intensity (IMD 65kts; JTWC 70kts) based on these estimates and surface obs. I personally think 60kts TS/SCS is a more fitting peak intensity, and perhaps landfall intensity was even slightly weaker at 55kts.

Image
Image
Image
0 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 9 guests