ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

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ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 26, 2020 2:02 pm

AL, 99, 2020112618, , BEST, 0, 276N, 579W, 30, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 205, 200, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 069, SPAWNINVEST, al772020 to al992020,


Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121608
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2 Postby Ryxn » Thu Nov 26, 2020 2:16 pm

Well I smell Kappa, although the title may be misleading because the storm surely won't be putting a cap-pa on this season...

Mary HAD a little a lamb...until she lost it and it ran loose...around the end of November....

And then the cows attack.

Followed by the new year...finally...oh wait no, just Nu. :(

This season. It's mad. Pick a plot line...
:roll:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Nov 26, 2020 2:23 pm

Ryxn wrote:Well I smell Kappa, although the title may be misleading because the storm surely won't be putting a cap-pa on this season...

Mary HAD a little a lamb...until she lost it and it ran loose...around the end of November....

And then the cows attack.

Followed by the new year...finally...oh wait no, just Nu. :(

This season. It's mad. Pick a plot line...
:roll:

Nu is a very aggressive prediction. I'd be very shocked if we got past Lambda to be honest.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4 Postby Ryxn » Thu Nov 26, 2020 2:29 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
Ryxn wrote:Well I smell Kappa, although the title may be misleading because the storm surely won't be putting a cap-pa on this season...

Mary HAD a little a lamb...until she lost it and it ran loose...around the end of November....

And then the cows attack.

Followed by the new year...finally...oh wait no, just Nu. :(

This season. It's mad. Pick a plot line...
:roll:

Nu is a very aggressive prediction. I'd be very shocked if we got past Lambda to be honest.


Same. I agree. I just wanted to keep making puns haha :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#5 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Nov 26, 2020 2:44 pm

"We're only getting to Lambda" to be fair is absolutely something I didn't think we would literally ever get to say
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#6 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Nov 26, 2020 3:01 pm

EquusStorm wrote:"We're only getting to Lambda" to be fair is absolutely something I didn't think we would literally ever get to say

We're only getting to the L storm? Wow what a boring season :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#7 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Nov 26, 2020 3:22 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#8 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Nov 26, 2020 4:10 pm

That looks like a TC or STC to me. I'd be at least upping the probabilities significantly. I'd put up a special TWO with 60/60 probs mentioning only a small amount of improvement would result in a cyclone.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#9 Postby aspen » Thu Nov 26, 2020 6:07 pm

Since 99L is getting its act together quicker, it’ll likely become somewhat stronger before conditions become less favorable this weekend. However, models appear to be leaning towards a second peak around day 4 as it moves into the higher latitudes, possibly due to baroclinic forcing. I’m guessing at most, we’ll get a mid-grade TS out of this.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#10 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 26, 2020 6:28 pm

Up to 40%.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda have
increased during the past few hours. Additional subtropical
development is possible during the next day or so while the low
drifts south-southwestward. Environmental conditions are expected to
become unfavorable for further development over the weekend as the
system begins to move north-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#11 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Nov 26, 2020 9:30 pm

aspen wrote:Since 99L is getting its act together quicker, it’ll likely become somewhat stronger before conditions become less favorable this weekend. However, models appear to be leaning towards a second peak around day 4 as it moves into the higher latitudes, possibly due to baroclinic forcing. I’m guessing at most, we’ll get a mid-grade TS out of this.


Agreed, and it may be an STS at first.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#12 Postby AJC3 » Fri Nov 27, 2020 6:59 am

99L's structure and appearance in visible imagery this morinng is precisely reason why NHC (more often than not) goes conservative on development probabilities. It's become totally devoid of central convection, with a peripheral, baroclinically-forced (by upper level jet divergence) band well removed from the circulation. It won't be getting upgraded anytime soon, and will need to re-start firing some semblance of central convective development to have any chance at becoming a STS.

Image

Showers and thunderstorms have decreased in coverage since yesterday
near a well-defined, non-tropical low pressure system located
several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. Development is unlikely
during the next day or so due to unfavorable upper-level winds. By
Sunday, environmental conditions are expected to become a little
more conducive for the low to briefly acquire subtropical
characteristics as it moves northeastward ahead of a frontal system.
By early next week, conditions are expected to become unfavorable
for further development as the system interacts with or becomes
absorbed by a frontal system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#13 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Nov 27, 2020 6:11 pm

An elongated, non-tropical low pressure system located over 500
miles southeast of Bermuda is producing limited shower activity due
to dry air in the surrounding environment and strong upper-level
winds. Conditions are expected to remain generally unfavorable for
development this weekend as the low moves northeastward ahead of an
approaching frontal system. By early next week, the system is
expected to become absorbed by this frontal system over the
north-central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#14 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Nov 27, 2020 7:10 pm

A non-tropical low pressure system located more than 500 miles
southeast of Bermuda is producing limited shower activity due
to dry air and strong upper-level winds. Conditions are expected to
remain generally unfavorable for development this weekend as the low
moves northeastward ahead of an approaching frontal system. By early
next week, the system is expected to become absorbed by this frontal
system over the north-central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#15 Postby AJC3 » Sun Nov 29, 2020 6:08 am

A trough of low pressure located about 700 miles east of Bermuda is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is
expected to merge with a non-tropical low pressure system later
today, and development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.


C-ya...
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