BoB: Burevi - Cyclonic Storm

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BoB: Burevi - Cyclonic Storm

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Nov 28, 2020 3:06 am

98B.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.6N.93.5E
Last edited by Nancy Smar on Tue Dec 01, 2020 10:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: BoB: 98B - Deep Depression

#2 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Dec 01, 2020 5:36 am

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TIME OF ISSUE: 1430 HOURS IST DATED: 01.12.2020
FROM: INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

The Deep Depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved westwards with a speed of 13 kmph during past six hours and lay centered at 1130 hrs IST of 01st December 2020 over southwest Bay of Bengal near Lat. 7.8° N and Long. 85.3°E, about 460 km east-southeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka) and 860 km east-southeast of Kanniyakumari (India). It is very likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm during next 12 hours. It is very likely to move west-northwestwards and cross Sri Lanka coast between latitude 7.50N and 9.00N close to Trincomalee during evening/night of 2nd December as a Cyclonic Storm with a wind speed of 75-85 kmph gusting to 95kmph. It is very likely to move nearly westwards thereafter, emerge into Gulf of Mannar and adjoining Comorin area on 3rd December morning. It would then move nearly west-southwestwards and cross south Tamilnadu coast between Kanniyakumari and Pamban around early morning of 4th December.

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WTIO21 PGTW 010930

REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 87.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 85.3E, APPROXIMATELY 203 NM EAST OF SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVING CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 010432Z METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A WELL-ORGANIZED LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING. INVEST 98B IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98B WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

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Re: BoB: Burevi - Cyclonic Storm

#3 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Dec 01, 2020 10:28 am

TC ADVISORY
TCAC: NEW DELHI
DTG: 20201201/1200Z
TC: BUREVI
NR: 03
PSN: N0754 E08448
MOV: W06KT
INTST CHANGE: INTNSFY
C: 999HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN+06HR: 01/1800Z N0806 E08412
FCST MAX WIND +6HRS: 35 KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 02/0000Z N0818 E08324
FCST MAX WIND +12HRS: 40 KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 02/0600Z N0830 E08236
FCST MAX WIND +18HRS: 45 KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 02/1200Z N0842 E08118
FCST MAX WIND +24HRS: 45 KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20201201/2100Z
TOO: 012000HRS IST
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Re: BoB: Burevi - Cyclonic Storm

#4 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Dec 01, 2020 10:30 am

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REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 8.0N 84.4E.
01DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300
NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING.
A 011311Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS MULTIPLE BANDS WRAPPING
TIGHTLY AROUND A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS
THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T2.5 (35 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES (29C) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. TC 05B IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH BUT IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD AFTER TAU 24 THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS UNDER A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED STR ENTRENCHED OVER
THE ARABIAN SEA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 05B
SHOULD INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 24 UNDER FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
SRI LANKA, WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, THEN ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF INDIA, WHICH WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 05B
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
011200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z
AND 021500Z.
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Re: BoB: Burevi - Cyclonic Storm

#5 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Dec 01, 2020 10:29 pm

Now expected to become a Cat 1 by JTWC. Quite the difference from the 45kt peak shown this morning.
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Re: BoB: Burevi - Cyclonic Storm

#6 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:08 am

Weather Dude wrote:Now expected to become a Cat 1 by JTWC. Quite the difference from the 45kt peak shown this morning.

Burevi was indeed looking pretty good earlier but has become lopsided recently. North side also looks "flat" on latest satellite frames. I think some shear is to blame but that's most probably only part of the bigger picture. This doesn't seem to be the type of system that would go RI soon. It's also running out of time as landfall over Sri Lanka could be about 12hrs earlier than what JTWC indicated in their 00Z advisory. That said, we all know rainfall will be the big issue for Sri Lanka.

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Re: BoB: Burevi - Cyclonic Storm

#7 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Dec 02, 2020 4:29 am

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REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 82.0E.
02DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (BUREVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
367 NM EAST OF COCHIN, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES. A
020411Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A BROAD CENTER WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, HEDGED
ABOVE PGTW / DEMS DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS), BASED ON
HIGHER SATCON, ADT ESTIMATES NEAR 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER, THESE OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES APPEAR TOO HIGH BASED ON A 020411Z ASCAT-B
PARTIAL IMAGE AND 020136Z CFOSAT BULLSEYE IMAGE SHOWING 30-35 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ADDITIONALLY, A PARTIAL 020014Z
SMAP IMAGE INDICATED MAXIMUM 1-MINUTE SURFACE WINDS OF 31 KNOTS OVER
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC
05B IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENSION TO THE NORTH. AFTER
TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS UNDER
THE DOMINANT STR ENTRENCHED OVER THE ARABIAN SEA. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 05B IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS AT TAU 12. NEAR TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
AS IT TRACKS OVER NORTHERN SRI LANKA THEN FURTHER WEAKENING OVER
SOUTHERN INDIA. TC 05B SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.//
NNNN


TC ADVISORY
TCAC: NEW DELHI
DTG: 20201202/0600Z
TC: BUREVI
NR: 06
PSN: N0842 E08230
MOV: WNW11KT
INTST CHANGE: INTSF
C: 996HPA
MAX WIND: 45KT
FCST PSN+06HR: 02/1200Z N0900 E08124
FCST MAX WIND +6HRS: 45 KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 02/1800Z N0906 E08036
FCST MAX WIND +12HRS: 45 KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 03/0000Z N0912 E08000
FCST MAX WIND +18HRS: 40 KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 03/0600Z N0912 E07918
FCST MAX WIND +24HRS: 40 KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20201202/1500Z
TOO: 021450HRS IST
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Re: BoB: Burevi - Cyclonic Storm

#8 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:06 am

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REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 8.8N 81.9E.
02DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (BUREVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
368 NM EAST OF COCHIN, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES. A
021108Z SSMIS 91GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 2.5 (35 KNOTS) TO 3.0 (45 KNOTS).
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS
BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH SRI LANKA, WHICH MAY LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.
TC 05B IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENSION TO THE
NORTH. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT
TRACKS UNDER THE DOMINANT STR ENTRENCHED OVER THE ARABIAN SEA.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 05B IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS AT TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12,
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER NORTHERN SRI LANKA WITH
FURTHER WEAKENING OVER SOUTHERN INDIA. TC 05B SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.//
NNNN
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Re: BoB: Burevi - Depression

#9 Postby doomhaMwx » Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:42 am

05B BUREVI 201204 1200 9.3N 79.4E IO 30 1000


 https://twitter.com/Indiametdept/status/1334881014703738882


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Re: BoB: Burevi - Well-Marked Low

#10 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Dec 05, 2020 8:03 pm

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ABIO10 PGTW 051800

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 05B) PERSISTED NEAR
8.9N 80.1E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTH OF COLOMBO. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A 051554Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE, DEPICTS DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE ACCOMPANYING 051553Z
METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS NORTHERLY WINDS DOMINATING THE BAY OF
MANNAR, INDICATING THAT THE LLC HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED. THE REMNANTS
OF TC 05B IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING
OFFSET BY INTERACTION WITH THE INDIAN PENINSULA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF TC 05B WILL TRACK WESTWARD,
PERSISTING AS A CIRCULATION INTO THE ARABIAN SEA WITH SOME LIMITED
REINTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

TIME OF ISSUE: 1400 HOURS IST DATED: 05.12.2020
FROM: INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

The Depression over Gulf of Mannar close to Ramanathapuram District coast remained
practically stationary, weakened into a Well Marked Low Pressure Area and lay centered over
Gulf of Mannar at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 05th December. The associated wind speed is
about 30-40 gusting to 50 kmph.
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