SPAC: YASA - Post Tropical

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Re: SPAC: YASA - Tropical Cyclone

#21 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Dec 14, 2020 2:25 am

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Re: SPAC: YASA - Tropical Cyclone

#22 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Dec 14, 2020 3:06 am

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Re: SPAC: YASA - Tropical Cyclone

#23 Postby aspen » Mon Dec 14, 2020 9:56 am

An eye is forming on IR imagery, and it shows that the JTWC position for Yasa is quite off; it’s too far to the west.
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Re: SPAC: YASA - Tropical Cyclone

#24 Postby aspen » Mon Dec 14, 2020 6:06 pm

That’s going to be a big eye once it clears out, although it’ll likely contract a bit.
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Re: SPAC: YASA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#25 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Dec 14, 2020 6:35 pm

05P YASA 201214 1800 15.4S 172.1E SHEM 80 971


FMS expects a 110kt (category 5 Aus scale) landfall over Fiji. That's in good agreement with JTWC's forecast of 105-110kt as well.

Image
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 142049 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE YASA CENTRE 966HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3S
172.0E AT 141800 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT
ABOUT 5 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH EYE DISCRNABLE ON HIMAWARI IR
IMAGERY. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN A
LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH AND NORTH. TC
YASA STEERED EAST NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO
500HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON MG
EYE WITH WHITE SURROUND, YIELDING DT=6.0. MET=4.5 AND PT=5.0. FT
BASED ON PT AND ALSO DUE TO FT CONSTRAINTS OF CHANGE OF 1.0 OVER 6
HOURS WITH T.NO GREATER THAN 4.0 THUS, YIELDING T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC 15.0S 172.2E MOV NNE AT 02 KT WITH 90
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC 14.8S 172.8E MOV NE AT 02 KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 14.9S 173.7E MOV ENE AT 03 KT WITH 105
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 15.4S 175.1E MOV E AT 04 KT WITH 110 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
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Re: SPAC: YASA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#26 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:19 pm

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Re: SPAC: YASA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#27 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Dec 15, 2020 2:47 am

cat 3 JTWC; cat 4 FMS
05P YASA 201215 0600 14.9S 173.0E SHEM 105 949

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 150738 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE YASA CENTRE 941HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0S
173.0E AT 150600 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE SLOW MOVING. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 100 KNOTS.


EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 14.7S 173.0E AT 151200 UTC
AND NEAR 14.6S 173.7E AT 160000 UTC.


DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH EYE DISCRNABLE ON HIMAWARI IR
IMAGERY. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN A
LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH AND NORTH. TC
YASA CURRENTLY SLOW MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO
500HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON DG
EYE WITH B SURROUND, YIELDING DT=6.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED
ON DT THUS, YIELDING T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC 15.0S 173.5E MOV E AT 03 KT WITH 105 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 15.1S 174.5E MOV E AT 04 KT WITH 110 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 15.6S 175.8E MOV ESE AT 05 KT WITH 115
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 16.3S 177.4E MOV ESE AT 06 KT WITH 115
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
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Re: SPAC: YASA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#28 Postby aspen » Tue Dec 15, 2020 9:09 am

Earlier microwave imagery suggested a bit of an eyewall meld might’ve been taking place, but a 10z pass suggests there’s now one solid eyewall, slightly more contracted than before. The eye should start clearing out again sometime in the next few hours.
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Re: SPAC: YASA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#29 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Dec 15, 2020 9:15 am

I believe this is near its peak, maybe 5-10 knots more of an increase in 10m sustained but still an impressive cyclone at cat 3
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Re: SPAC: YASA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#30 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:54 am

Now a cat 5 by FMS.
HURRICANE WARNING 049 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 151427 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE YASA CENTRE 929HPA CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8 SOUTH 173.1EAST AT 151200 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 14.8S 173.1E at 151200 UTC.
CYCLONE SLOW MOVING. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 120 KNOTS BY 161200 UTC.

...
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Re: SPAC: YASA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#31 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Dec 15, 2020 11:08 am

Well I grossly underestimated this TC.
The band of clouds to its east reminds me of very intense hurricanes like Iota with the western band.
Perhaps a signal this storm is still intensifying. :double:blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/555dd36a-6b84-47c8-952c-7574f21f4ba8
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Re: SPAC: YASA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#32 Postby aspen » Tue Dec 15, 2020 2:02 pm

Holy wow: 135 kt and 919 mbar for the 18z best track update :double:
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Re: SPAC: YASA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#33 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Dec 15, 2020 2:13 pm

135knots 1 minute sustained!!!???
Look at that eye wow
blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ddae456d-2bac-4128-b7b4-9bc7eaca0bad
anybody know why it has a rectangle for an eye?
Now an hourglass eye!!! what a strange storm
Could this become the 3rd sub 900mb SWP cyclone!!!??? :double: :lol: :lol:
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Re: SPAC: YASA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#34 Postby aspen » Tue Dec 15, 2020 2:39 pm

Seems like Yasa is destined to become a Category 5: there’s no sign of an upcoming EWRC, the eye continues to clear out, and it has 36-42 hours left until landfall. I’d say it’s not impossible for this to hit 150-155 kt.
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Re: SPAC: YASA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#35 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Dec 15, 2020 3:33 pm

Just took a glance at the current IR image and the BT update and GEEZ! Yasa is going off down there... This is going to be Fiji's strongest storm since Winston 2016. Let's hope it doesn't get that strong..
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Re: SPAC: YASA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#36 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Dec 15, 2020 3:37 pm

This could be the strongest TC in terms of mb this year.
In an extremely favorable environment, I don''t see anything stopping it. poor Fiji. Hopefully it curves south and misses it. :double: :double: :double: :double:
Edit: look at those Mesovortices in that eye WOW!
Edit: My bad though Goni had a peak of 905mb
Last edited by InfernoFlameCat on Tue Dec 15, 2020 4:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SPAC: YASA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#37 Postby aspen » Tue Dec 15, 2020 3:52 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:This could be the strongest TC in terms of mb this year.
In an extremely favorable environment, I don''t see anything stopping it. poor Fiji. Hopefully it curves south and misses it. :double: :double: :double: :double:
Edit: look at those Mesovortices in that eye WOW!

It has a long way to go before it’ll be able to even get close to Goni’s 884 mbar estimate from the JTWC. I don’t think it’ll get sub-900, but it could get pretty close.
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Re: SPAC: YASA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#38 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Dec 15, 2020 3:55 pm

aspen wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:This could be the strongest TC in terms of mb this year.
In an extremely favorable environment, I don''t see anything stopping it. poor Fiji. Hopefully it curves south and misses it. :double: :double: :double: :double:
Edit: look at those Mesovortices in that eye WOW!

It has a long way to go before it’ll be able to even get close to Goni’s 884 mbar estimate from the JTWC. I don’t think it’ll get sub-900, but it could get pretty close.

No way it gets close to 884mb. Anything below that would break Winston's record for the SHEM. I could see close to 900 or maybe a little below that if it keeps this up though
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Re: SPAC: YASA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#39 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Dec 15, 2020 4:05 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
aspen wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:This could be the strongest TC in terms of mb this year.
In an extremely favorable environment, I don''t see anything stopping it. poor Fiji. Hopefully it curves south and misses it. :double: :double: :double: :double:
Edit: look at those Mesovortices in that eye WOW!

It has a long way to go before it’ll be able to even get close to Goni’s 884 mbar estimate from the JTWC. I don’t think it’ll get sub-900, but it could get pretty close.

No way it gets close to 884mb. Anything below that would break Winston's record for the SHEM. I could see close to 900 or maybe a little below that if it keeps this up though

Thought it peaked at 905mb didn't see that sorry I should have double checked before posting that. :cheesy:
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Re: SPAC: YASA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#40 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Dec 15, 2020 4:59 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:
aspen wrote:It has a long way to go before it’ll be able to even get close to Goni’s 884 mbar estimate from the JTWC. I don’t think it’ll get sub-900, but it could get pretty close.

No way it gets close to 884mb. Anything below that would break Winston's record for the SHEM. I could see close to 900 or maybe a little below that if it keeps this up though

Thought it peaked at 905mb didn't see that sorry I should have double checked before posting that. :cheesy:

The JMA has the official pressure so that's why it's listed at 905. But given Goni was a 170kts, I would think the 884 estimate is closer to reality than the 905
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