SPAC: YASA - Post Tropical

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doomhaMwx
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Re: SPAC: YASA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#81 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Dec 16, 2020 5:27 pm

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B15 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 161952 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE YASA CENTRE 899HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5S
176.7E AT 161800 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 11 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 135 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP COOLING CONTINUES TO PERSIST WITH A
WELL DEFINED EYE. ORGANISATION GOOD. TC YASA LIES UNDER AN UPPER
DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. YASA IS BEING STEERED
EASTWARD-SOUTHEASTWARDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO
500HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON OW
EYE PATTERN WITH A W SURROUND WITH BANDING FEATURE YIELDING DT OF
7.5. MET 7.5 AND PT 6.0. FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING
T7.5/7.5/D0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 16.6S 178.4E MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 130
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 18.0S 179.8E MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 120
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC 19.4S 179.2W MOV SE AT 09 KT WITH 115
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC 20.8S 178.8W MOV SE AT 09 KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
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Re: SPAC: YASA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#82 Postby aspen » Wed Dec 16, 2020 5:45 pm

2020 has been nuts on so many levels that I’m not even surprised by anything anymore. An 899 mbar high-end Cat 4 in the SPac in December? Pretty much par for the course.
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Re: SPAC: YASA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#83 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Dec 16, 2020 5:47 pm

StormTracker89 wrote:Increasing probability of another EWRC, 1st indications already starting to be seen in latest microwave imagery. Could be a good thing, lowering intensity at landfall/CPA to Fiji. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/archerOnline/cyclones/2020_05P/web/erc/hovmuller_RT.png

Latest microwave shows an ongoing ERC, but I'm not sure if this is still the same ERC that began ~18hrs ago.

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Re: SPAC: YASA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#84 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Dec 16, 2020 6:25 pm

Image
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Re: SPAC: YASA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#85 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:35 pm

aspen wrote:2020 has been nuts on so many levels that I’m not even surprised by anything anymore. An 899 mbar high-end Cat 4 in the SPac in December? Pretty much par for the course.

I guess we'll never know for sure what the true pressure was since it was only estimated by satellite, but I would think the JTWC's mid 910's estimate would be closer to reality than that 899mb estimate. Still impressive no matter what the true pressure was.
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Re: SPAC: YASA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#86 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Dec 16, 2020 9:19 pm

05P YASA 201217 0000 16.0S 177.7E SHEM 130 925

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 170141 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE YASA CENTRE 907HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0S
177.8E AT 170000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED TO ABOUT 130 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE BUT
CLOUD BANDS ARE INTERACTING WITH LAND AREAS OF FIJI. CLOUD TOP
WARMING IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE LAST 3 HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS
GOOD. TC YASA LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. YASA IS BEING STEERED EASTWARD-SOUTHEASTWARDS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. SST IS AROUND 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON OW EYE PATTERN WITH LG SURROUND
WITH BANDING FEATURE YIELDING DT OF 6.0. MET 6.5 AND PT 6.0. FT
BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING T6.0/7.5/W1.0/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC 17.2S 179.5E MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 120
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC 18.7S 179.2W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC 20.2S 178.5W MOV SE AT 09 KT WITH 105
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 190000 UTC 21.6S 178.3W MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

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Re: SPAC: YASA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#87 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Dec 17, 2020 3:34 am

Yasa has made landfall over Vanua Levu. Not much surface obs currently available from that island unfortunately. A station in Rakiraki and Yasawa to the west recorded ~50kt sustained winds (10-min) a few hrs ago.

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Re: SPAC: YASA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#88 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Dec 17, 2020 8:48 am

Dec 17 03:00Z-10:40Z satellite and radar loop

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Re: SPAC: YASA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#89 Postby doomhaMwx » Fri Dec 18, 2020 2:59 am

Image
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05P YASA 201218 0600 19.1S 178.3W SHEM 75 974

HURRICANE WARNING 067 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 180717 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE YASA CENTRE 977HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9 SOUTH 177.5 WEST AT 180600 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 18.9S 177.5W at 180600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 13 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

...
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Re: SPAC: YASA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#90 Postby cycloneye » Fri Dec 18, 2020 4:43 am

Any information on the damage to those islands?
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Re: SPAC: YASA - Tropical Cyclone

#91 Postby Crostorm » Sat Dec 19, 2020 8:29 am

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