91P INVEST 201211 0000 10.9S 170.4E SHEM 25 1001
91P INVEST 201210 1800 10.9S 170.2E SHEM 25 1002
91P INVEST 201210 1200 10.8S 170.0E SHEM 25 1004
169.4E AT 110600 UTC. TD02F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 23 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
![Image](https://i.imgur.com/cra6Z2R.gif)
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Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:For the record, this has been upgraded to TS 04P by JTWC (Tropical Depression 01F by FMS). As JTWC mentions, 04P is expected to interact with nearby developing Invest 91P, making the forecast highly-uncertain. 91P might actually turn out to be the dominant system though. Models show the merged system becoming a significant cyclone between Fiji and Vanuatu in the coming days.![]()
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 178.5E.
11DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 313NM NORTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. AN 110617Z MHS 89GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND AN 110630Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 2.5. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (25-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND WARM SST VALUES (29-30C). TC 04P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MONSOON DEPRESSION (INVEST 91P), WHICH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS INTO A CONSOLIDATED TROPICAL CYCLONE. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF INVEST 91P TO TC 04P, THERE WILL BE A LIKELY PHASE OF DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) AND POSSIBLE FUJIWHARA/MERGER NEAR TAU 72. THIS COMPLEX SCENARIO INVOLVES A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST AND INTENSITY FORECAST. GFS AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPS INVEST 91P AND WEAKENS TC 04P LEADING TO 04P'S ABSORPTION WHILE NAVGEM/ECMWF INDICATE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 91P AND ABSORPTION OF TC 04P. DUE TO THE DCI/FUJIWHARA SCENARIO, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REFLECTS A SLOW/QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION FROM TAU 48 TO TAU 96. BY TAU 96, THE STR IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AS A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. THUS, TC 04P WILL BEGIN TO TRACK POLEWARD BY TAU 120. TC 04P IS FORECAST TO STRUGGLE THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 48, THE MERGED SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS THE ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 120. DUE TO THE UNUSUAL COMPLEXITY OF THIS FORECAST SCENARIO, THERE IS AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO WHERE INVEST 91P BECOMES THE DOMINANT SYSTEM AND TC 04P DISSIPATES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.//
NNNN![]()
aspen wrote:This is what is called a "bruh moment".
https://i.imgur.com/PgYA3SZ.png
aspen wrote:This is what is called a "bruh moment".
https://i.imgur.com/PgYA3SZ.png
Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:aspen wrote:This is what is called a "bruh moment".
https://i.imgur.com/PgYA3SZ.png
That looks right, actually. Latest ASCAT didn't find a closed circulation yet in 91P but one is probably consolidating underneath the western part of that very deep convection (~170E). 04P is indeed still holding on to TS intensity.
https://i.imgur.com/yZoaGC3.png
https://i.imgur.com/1iKoX2e.png
Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 131403 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE YASA CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 172.3E AT 131200 UTC. POSITION GOOD POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
...
Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 131403 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE YASA CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 172.3E AT 131200 UTC. POSITION GOOD POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
...
Don't know if it's "good" or "poor", but don't they ever look at scatterometer data?
https://i.imgur.com/pLcEFpb.jpg
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