SPAC: ZAZU - Post-Tropical

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SPAC: ZAZU - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Dec 12, 2020 1:27 am

Another system in the SPAC in addition to 01F and 02F. This one's SE of Samoa.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD03F CENTRE [1007HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1S
166.6W AT 112100 UTC. TD02F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-8 VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERY SURFACE REPORTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS SCATTERED NEARBY THE SUPPOSED LLCC BUT
ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST IS AROUND 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE PICKING UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE SOUTHWEST WITH
SLIGHT DEEPENING IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

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Last edited by doomhaMwx on Wed Dec 16, 2020 9:04 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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Re: SPAC: 03F - Tropical Disturbance

#2 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Dec 12, 2020 6:52 am

92P INVEST 201212 1200 14.0S 170.3W SHEM 15 1010
98C INVEST 201212 0600 14.0N 170.0W WPAC 15 0
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Re: SPAC: 03F - Tropical Depression (INVEST 92P)

#3 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Dec 12, 2020 8:50 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD03F CENTRE [1002HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5S
170.8W AT 122100 UTC. TD03F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERY SURFACE REPORTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT NEAR THE SUPPOSED LLCC AND
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE
AND OUTFLOW. SST IS AROUND 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE PICKING UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWEST WITH
FURTHER DEEPENING IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

ABPW10 PGTW 122300

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.0S 170.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 170.9W, APPROXIMATELY 91
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES LOW LEVEL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OBSCURED BY DEEP
CONVECTION. A 122104Z METOP-B 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS AN AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 122105Z ASCAT-B PASS
REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 30-34 KT WINDS UNDER THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CONVECTION WITH WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 92P IS IN AN AREA CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92P WILL CONTINUE TO
CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

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Re: SPAC: 03F - Tropical Depression (INVEST 92P)

#4 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Dec 13, 2020 6:47 am

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WTPS21 PGTW 130630

REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.8S 170.9W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 171.5W, APPROXIMATELY 122
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES LOW LEVEL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OBSCURED BY DEEP
CONVECTION. A 122104Z METOP-B 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS AN AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 122105Z ASCAT-B PASS
REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 30-34 KT WINDS UNDER THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CONVECTION WITH WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 92P IS IN AN AREA CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92P
WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
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Re: SPAC: 03F - Tropical Depression (06P)

#5 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Dec 13, 2020 9:58 am

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REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 173.7W.
13DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTIVE SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE LLCC IN THE EIR LOOP.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KTS AND IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS, PGTW AND KNES) DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF 35 KTS WINDS IN DATA FROM A 130936Z ASCAT-B PASS. TC 06P IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND SUPPORT GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION TO 45 KTS BY THIS TIME. THEREAFTER, THE STEERING RIDGE WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL EASTWARD RETREAT DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING FROM THE WEST. AS THE RIDGE RE-POSITIONS AND BUILDS TO THE EAST THE STORM MOTION WILL TURN FROM SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 24. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TAU 48 AND LEAD TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KTS BY THAT TIME. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION(ETT) AS IT APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO HIGH (30+ KTS) VWS. BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO 35 KTS AND COMPLETE ETT. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 WITH SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE THEREAFTER. THIS DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE LATER
TAUS LENDS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED ALONG THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.


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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER C3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 131408 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD03F CENTRE [1002HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2S
173.6W AT 131200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERY SURFACE REPORTS.
TD03F MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. DEPRESSION INTENSIFYING.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINED PERSISTENT OVER LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS
SLIGHTLY IMPROVED WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP ONTO LLCC. SYSTEM
LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE WITH
GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND OUTFLOW. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO
500HPA. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
CURVED PATTERN, WITH 0.30 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL, YIELDING DT=1.5. MET
AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP THE DEPRESSION AND MAINTAINS ITS SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK AND EVENTUALLY ACCELERATING IT IN A SOUTHEASTWARDS DIRECTION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR TD02F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

FORECASTS :

AT 12 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 17.8S 173.4W MOV SW AT 08 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 18.7S 173.8W MOV SW AT 06 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 19.3S 173.6W MOV SSW AT 05 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 19.2S 172.6W MOV S AT 04 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
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Re: SPAC: 03F - Tropical Depression (06P)

#6 Postby wxman57 » Sun Dec 13, 2020 7:58 pm

An ASCAT pass at 1928Z had many TS winds, with peak 40-45 kts. This is not a depression. However, I think Fiji requires TS winds in at least 3 quadrants to upgrade. I don't see any in the SW quadrant, and it's very close for the NW quadrant.
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Re: SPAC: ZAZU - Tropical Cyclone

#7 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:07 pm

FMS is yet to update their advisory for this system, but it's now TC "Zazu" on their weather map.

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Re: SPAC: ZAZU - Tropical Cyclone

#8 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Dec 14, 2020 9:43 pm

Storm is getting heavily sheared by Yasa and may not reach full potential because of this.
probably shear of 20-25 knots
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Re: SPAC: ZAZU - Tropical Cyclone

#9 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Dec 15, 2020 8:07 pm

Zazu: "Nobody knows the trouble I've seen, nobody knows my sorrow..."

Heh...sorry about that. :lol: :oops:
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Re: SPAC: ZAZU - Tropical Cyclone

#10 Postby EquusStorm » Wed Dec 16, 2020 12:13 pm

Current status

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Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.


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