ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

[tolakram]

Where are you seeing that?.....

Euro latest, total precip. Just one run, but certainly something to be concerned about.

https://i.imgur.com/9eTdV3t.png

Source: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/953-w-320-n/acc-total-precipitation/20210921-0600z.html

Is the Euro to you....a reliable model for cyclones?...I admit I am lacking knowledge of which model is the most reliable...so when I look at that model image...it's a definite concern....thankyou for your help and information..

No single model should be relied on for an accurate forecast, period. The NHC uses a commercial blend of models and ensembles to make their forecast.

[MBryant]

Whew, RIP Schulenberg, La Grange, Flatonia on that model run. But certainly only one run and definitely an outlier in terms of overall precipitation.

For reference, the highest total rainfall for Harvey was 60.58 inches at the airport in Jefferson county, south of Beaumont. I just don’t see that type of setup here with that many days of training bands.

That may be the highest official total, but I live about 10 miles from an unofficial 67" total (Vidor) which is about 25 miles north of the airport.

[Clearcloudz]

Jack Sillin thoughts on the latest EURO.

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1437136711167905801

[Clearcloudz]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1437137663157587968

[SoupBone]

https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1437137663157587968

Now I do know who he is. Very knowledgeable guy and very data driven.

[dpep4]

David Roth mentions that the EURO might be overdoing Precip totals

https://twitter.com/DRmetwatch/status/1437127526506184704

Not sure who this is

Former lead singer for Van Halen.

[Portastorm]

David Roth mentions that the EURO might be overdoing Precip totals

https://twitter.com/DRmetwatch/status/1437127526506184704

Not sure who this is

Former lead singer for Van Halen.

Nice guess, wrong answer. David Roth is a forecaster for the Weather Prediction Center for the NWS.

[IcyTundra]

18Z ICON stronger and further east landfall just east of Matagorda Bay.

[SoupBone]

The GFS run is a bit odd. It looks like it's in a pinball machine. No smooth movement at all.

[Clearcloudz]

18Z GFS center comes right over my house.

[jaguars_22]

Someone please explain why the storm is showing moving out quicker on gfs than the euro? Shouldn’t it stall?? I’m sorry but 48 hrs out and this big of difference

[IcyTundra]

Someone please explain why the storm is showing moving out quicker on gfs than the euro? Shouldn’t it stall?? I’m sorry but 48 hrs out and this big of difference

GFS has Nicholas becoming stronger than the euro so it is able to move out faster.

[Cpv17]

The 18z GFS looks like the initial track the NHC had out. Doesn’t quite match up with the latest official track which is probably 40 miles west of the 18z GFS.

[SoupBone]

Well that GFS run would give Houston some funk wind, though nothing that crazy, and a 7-10" of rain over most of the area through 66 hours.

[IcyTundra]

The 18z GFS looks like the initial track the NHC had out. Doesn’t quite match up with the latest official track which is probably 40 miles west of the 18z GFS.

Same general idea as the NHC though at this point it is pretty certain that Nicholas will make landfall near Matagorda Bay or just to the east or west of Matagorda Bay.

[SoupBone]

GFS rain over Houston through 66 hours.

[Cpv17]

The 18z GFS looks like the initial track the NHC had out. Doesn’t quite match up with the latest official track which is probably 40 miles west of the 18z GFS.

Same general idea as the NHC though at this point it is pretty certain that Nicholas will make landfall near Matagorda Bay or just to the east or west of Matagorda Bay.

If I zoom in enough I believe right now the NHC has landfall right over San Antonio Bay. Right around the Seadrift/Austwell areas.

[underthwx]

David Roth mentions that the EURO might be overdoing Precip totals

https://twitter.com/DRmetwatch/status/1437127526506184704

Not sure who this is

Former lead singer for Van Halen.

Nah....I choose Sammy

[jaguars_22]

Cpv which means over Victoria?

[IcyTundra]

Cpv which means over Victoria?

NHC has Nicholas tracking to the east of Victoria meaning Victoria would be on the weaker side of the storm. Right now Victoria seems to be fine, but the track can still shift a little to the west or east so I would continue to monitor the situation.