ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/drrickknabb/status/1424358976880250880

[Hurricaneman]

Someone earlier in the thread mentioned that the low could congeal more towards the ball of convection to the WSW, if that happens could it be possible that this misses Hispaniola to the south, it can’t be ruled out a similar track to Elsa

[GCANE]

http://twitter.com/drrickknabb/status/1424358976880250880?s=21

Pretty interesting reading between the lines.
This is what I am concerned about.
If the ULL over FL breaks down, intensification could be dramatic especially with the other ULL, NE of the LL vort, supporting outflow.
A big kicker would be if it taps into the EPAC moisture.
I am not seeing anything forming in the EPAC then to steal TPW away.

[Category5Kaiju]

Someone earlier in the thread mentioned that the low could congeal more towards the ball of convection to the WSW, if that happens could it be possible that this misses Hispaniola to the south, it can’t be ruled out a similar track to Elsa

Or Laura. Not saying we will see a 150 mph Gulf storm of course, but Laura was expected to be a Florida Strait storm until it wasn't and was far enough to the south to become a Western Gulf threat.

[Shell Mound]

I am still rather skeptical that this manages to intensify much within the next three days, simply due to the very stable air mass that lurks just beyond the ITCZ. Small systems tend to die rapidly as soon as they detach themselves from the ITCZ and encounter mid-level dry air. GOES-16 WV imagery indicates that the air mass to the immediate northwest of 94L is in a very parched percentile—nearly record-breaking for its coordinates and time of year. As soon as 94L begins to gain latitude near the Lesser Antilles it may very well die off due to dry air alone, even if UL conditions remain rather favourable in the immediate vicinity of the Leeward Islands.

[Aric Dunn]

just waking up...

Wrapping up quite nicely. I can see two vort maxes ( still pretty normal at this point of development) the vort max to the South looks to be the main one as the vort to the north is rotating around the other.

should quickly consolidate today.

[Blown Away]

just waking up...

Wrapping up quite nicely. I can see two vort maxes ( still pretty normal at this point of development) the vort max to the South looks to be the main one as the vort to the is rotating around the other.

should quickly consolidate today.

https://i.ibb.co/NTHQ7Tg/Capture.png

Do you think this L will go N of Hispaniola??

[GCANE]

Lookin like a feeder-band maybe forming

[abajan]

just waking up...

Wrapping up quite nicely. I can see two vort maxes ( still pretty normal at this point of development) the vort max to the South looks to be the main one as the vort to the north is rotating around the other.

should quickly consolidate today.

https://i.ibb.co/NTHQ7Tg/Capture.png

I'm eagerly awaiting Wxman's rebuttal.

[GCANE]

just waking up...

Wrapping up quite nicely. I can see two vort maxes ( still pretty normal at this point of development) the vort max to the South looks to be the main one as the vort to the north is rotating around the other.

should quickly consolidate today.

https://i.ibb.co/NTHQ7Tg/Capture.png

I'm eagerly awaiting Wxman's rebuttal.

Don't forget about complaints of cutting into his PTO

[abajan]

Compare 94L's pressure at 6z vs 12z:





Assuming it were to keep falling at that rate, could we be looking at a tropical depression by this afternoon?

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like an elongated strip of vorticity to me. Convectively, it is not very organized. I don't see any banding, only forced convergence along the trough axis. There's a lot of dry air in it's path, which is significantly limiting any convection on the N and W sides of the trough axis. Perhaps we see a run at organization tonight during the typical diurnal maximum, but it I would argue it looked better organized convectively yesterday.

[NDG]

The southern convection is pushing SW and dying out, the northern vorticity is clearly taking over.

[Aric Dunn]

We have what about 24 hours to barbados.. could see a PTC tonight if convection continues to increase and maintain.

[Sciencerocks]

[Spacecoast]

AMSU Microwave 89 GHz Imagery (4 km Mercator)

[Spacecoast]

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

[Shell Mound]

There's a lot of dry air in its path, which is significantly limiting any convection on the N and W sides of the trough axis..

I suspect that the dry air alone is likely to keep 94L from developing within the next two to three days. Afterward, shear might do in whatever’s left. We shall see.

[NDG]

We have what about 24 hours to barbados.. could see a PTC tonight if convection continues to increase and maintain.

All global models have the vorticity tracking to the north of Barbados, if true they shouldn't see much winds out of it unlike with Elsa.

[Aric Dunn]

We have what about 24 hours to barbados.. could see a PTC tonight if convection continues to increase and maintain.

All global models have the vorticity tracking to the north of Barbados, if true they shouldn't see much winds out of it unlike with Elsa.

I Have been discussing this elsewhere. and the models have been showing a wnw/nw sharp motion to occur ... it needs to do that soon.

right now there is no reason for the turn.. and it is chugging West pretty steady.

so barbados is still in the path for now.


it is still E/ESE of barbados. and less than 24 hours away.. going to have a tough time missing it.