ATL: FRED - Models

[Category5Kaiju]

So far through 18 hrs 12z HWRF shows the dry air to the NW of 94L keep pushing west out of the way of 94L.

https://i.imgur.com/2ZDFasQ.png

https://i.ibb.co/C694jJM/Hurricane-1.png
Given the current level of disorganisation, this seems highly unlikely. 94L’s circulation is quite tilted with height, so the HWRF’s solution seems unrealistic.

Yes HWRF tends to overplay intensity, but seems to be remarkably good with the IR Brightness predictions...

But when the HWRF predicts RI and RI actually does occur, oh boy do I think it's arguably the best tool we currently have to see just how powerful a given RI storm could get.

[Shell Mound]

https://i.ibb.co/C694jJM/Hurricane-1.png
Given the current level of disorganisation, this seems highly unlikely. 94L’s circulation is quite tilted with height, so the HWRF’s solution seems unrealistic.

Yes HWRF tends to overplay intensity, but seems to be remarkably good with the IR Brightness predictions...

But when the HWRF predicts RI and RI actually does occur, oh boy do I think it's arguably the best tool we currently have to see just how powerful a given RI storm could get.

The HWRF usually is most adept at forecasting RI under ideal or near-ideal conditions. Under marginal conditions, including 94L’s, it becomes much more suspect.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Much slower moving than Elsa, thanks to slower trades this time of year.

[aspen]

Yes HWRF tends to overplay intensity, but seems to be remarkably good with the IR Brightness predictions...

But when the HWRF predicts RI and RI actually does occur, oh boy do I think it's arguably the best tool we currently have to see just how powerful a given RI storm could get.

The HWRF usually is most adept at forecasting RI under ideal or near-ideal conditions. Under marginal conditions, including 94L’s, it becomes much more suspect.

I wouldn’t call this a significant phase of RI; 94L only peaks as a mid to high 980s Cat 1 before running into Hispaniola a d getting ripped to shreds. That seems like a pretty reasonable outcome, instead of a Cat 3 like Gonzalo or Elsa. Speaking of Elsa, 94L is moving slower and has to deal with much weaker trades, so the HWRF underestimating the impact of self-produced and trade-produced shear won’t be an issue.

[Blown Away]

12z EURO...96 Hours... Vorticity strongest so far and likely a TD/TS into PR...

UPDATE... Sorry, into PR, then brushes Hispaniola...

[toad strangler]

https://i.imgur.com/IKMsnUf.gif
12z EURO...96 Hours... Vorticity strongest so far and likely a TD/TS into PR...

That's yesterdays 12z ...

EDIT ... YOU FIXED IT

[NDG]

12z Euro, the strongest run so far by the model towards development as it tracks through the Lesser Antilles.

[kevin]

Euro looks a bit bullish when you take into account how quiet the euro has been lately even with storms that eventually did develop. I'm almost used to euro showing an open wave even when all other models show a TS so the euro showing a TS indicates to me that this has a pretty good development chance.

[NDG]

12z Euro is still persistent in forecasting the TUTT/ULL to push towards the GOM as 94L heads through The Bahamas.

[Blown Away]

12z EURO 144 hrs...

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro through 144 hours. The environment must not be favorable for development over the Bahamas or else the model would show it developing on the approach to Florida:

[toad strangler]

12Z Euro through 144 hours. The environment must not be favorable for development over the Bahamas or else the model would show it developing on the approach to Florida:

https://i.postimg.cc/ZqJWJM3b/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-fh0-144.gif

true, but the Euro didn't develop anything last year until after the fact so how much does that really mean?

[DestinHurricane]

12Z Euro through 144 hours. The environment must not be favorable for development over the Bahamas or else the model would show it developing on the approach to Florida:

https://i.postimg.cc/ZqJWJM3b/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-fh0-144.gif

Do you not remember how bad the ECMWF was at intensity and genesis last year? And even this year with Elsa it was bad.

[NDG]

Something to keep in mind is that the Euro is trending towards stronger ridging off of the Carolinas coast as it tracks near The Bahamas/FL, so an OTS path by 94L is getting out of the question.

[Category5Kaiju]

Here’s the way I see it: if the Euro shows a detectable orange vorticity signature consistently, then you know there’s a pretty high chance of a tropical cyclone of some sort soon. If it shows a robust vorticity signature, then you evacuate.

[gatorcane]

Here is the CMC mode shear forecast, looks similar to the GFS as far as showing a hostile environment by days 4 and 5 across the Bahamas due to the ULL. Euro run with no significant development prior to Florida is certainly more believable:

[ronjon]

Something to keep in mind is that the Euro is trending towards stronger ridging off of the Carolinas coast as it tracks near The Bahamas/FL, so an OTS path by 94L is getting out of the question.

12z CMC brings a moderate TS into Mobile Bay so its apparently seeing some stronger ridging off the SE coast too. Perhaps a trend to watch. 12z ICON also brings the low pressure northward in the eastern GOM.

[Blown Away]

12z EURO... 192 hrs... Sharp R at SFL and into SC... Vorticity much improved in today's run

[NDG]

Here is the CMC mode shear forecast, looks similar to the GFS as far as showing a hostile environment by days 4 and 5 across the Bahamas due to the ULL. Euro run with no significant development prior to Florida is certainly more believable:

https://i.postimg.cc/dttvtcNS/gem-shear-watl-fh48-132.gif

But the same Euro shows the TUTT/ULL moving west towards the central GOM out of the way of 94L, it shows not much strengthening near FL because it shows the vorticity making landfall and tracking inland over the Peninsula.
A lot up in the air right now, including that I still don't trust the Euro much past its 5 day range like I used to and that it did horrible with Elsa.

[AtlanticWind]

Sometimes organizing systems take little jumps to the north during the process,
could make a difference for this system for clearing Hispanola to the north later on.