ATL: PETER - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#21 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:46 am

Here's how the GFS models it. Way too far out right now to have a lot of confidence in this solution.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#22 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:47 am

Well FWIW the vorticity that's left of 95L is significantly further S than 6z and near the E GA's.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#23 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:49 am

12z GFS takes a TS into the NE Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#24 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:53 am

Blown Away wrote:12z GFS takes a TS into the NE Caribbean.


misses the GA's just to the N but I don't think it's a TS, more likely just a wave but at this time period that point is mute. It's interesting though the the energy stayed S in this run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#25 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:55 am

Ripped to shreds on the 12z GFS. However, it has 95L as a tiny TS when approaching the TUTT. If it’s larger and/or stronger, it might have a better shot.

Quite a change from 36-48 hours ago, when this was thought to potentially be a long-tracking continuous major with no significant hurdles that would kill it or cause a temporary weakening phase.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#26 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:00 pm

aspen wrote:Ripped to shreds on the 12z GFS. However, it has 95L as a tiny TS when approaching the TUTT. If it’s larger and/or stronger, it might have a better shot.

Quite a change from 36-48 hours ago, when this was thought to potentially be a long-tracking continuous major with no significant hurdles that would kill it or cause a temporary weakening phase.


That was a fleeting thought at these far flung hours. Normal.
Last edited by toad strangler on Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#27 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:00 pm

toad strangler wrote:
Blown Away wrote:12z GFS takes a TS into the NE Caribbean.


misses the GA's just to the N but I don't think it's a TS, more likely just a wave but at this time period that point is mute. It's interesting though the the energy stayed S in this run.


I mean yeah because it's a decoupled shallow vortex getting 45 kt of shear. That solution doesn't leave room for anything remotely interesting.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#28 Postby Kohlecane » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:01 pm

aspen wrote:Ripped to shreds on the 12z GFS. However, it has 95L as a tiny TS when approaching the TUTT. If it’s larger and/or stronger, it might have a better shot.

Quite a change from 36-48 hours ago, when this was thought to potentially be a long-tracking continuous major with no significant hurdles that would kill it or cause a temporary weakening phase.

I thought like 36-48 hours ago the GFS wasn't even on board in the OP
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#29 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:02 pm

SFLcane wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
Blown Away wrote:12z GFS takes a TS into the NE Caribbean.


misses the GA's just to the N but I don't think it's a TS, more likely just a wave but at this time period that point is mute. It's interesting though the the energy stayed S in this run.


I mean yeah because it's a decoupled shallow vortex getting 45 kt of shear. That solution doesn't leave room for anything remotely interesting.


Any energy that could possibly escape would be interesting. AS doubtful as it may be.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#30 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:03 pm

Kohlecane wrote:
aspen wrote:Ripped to shreds on the 12z GFS. However, it has 95L as a tiny TS when approaching the TUTT. If it’s larger and/or stronger, it might have a better shot.

Quite a change from 36-48 hours ago, when this was thought to potentially be a long-tracking continuous major with no significant hurdles that would kill it or cause a temporary weakening phase.

I thought like 36-48 hours ago the GFS wasn't even on board in the OP


He is thinking of the Euro
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#31 Postby Kohlecane » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:06 pm

well one thing is for sure, this is the first GFS with 95L so keep that in mind, thinking we will get a better understanding when the Euro runs and some more guidance now that it is over water
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#32 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:07 pm

toad strangler wrote:
Kohlecane wrote:
aspen wrote:Ripped to shreds on the 12z GFS. However, it has 95L as a tiny TS when approaching the TUTT. If it’s larger and/or stronger, it might have a better shot.

Quite a change from 36-48 hours ago, when this was thought to potentially be a long-tracking continuous major with no significant hurdles that would kill it or cause a temporary weakening phase.

I thought like 36-48 hours ago the GFS wasn't even on board in the OP


He is thinking of the Euro

Yeah mainly the Euro but also the ensembles (which haven’t reacted that much to the PVS forecast), and the CMC/ICON which didn’t show the PVS until today’s runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#33 Postby Spacecoast » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:11 pm

The 12z GEFS ens finally showing less spread, and clustered @180hr.
Almost all now trackiing E of the 20N,60W
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#34 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:19 pm

We'll see if 95L can become a hurricane briefly before the tutt shreads it.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#35 Postby Woofde » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:41 pm

SFLcane wrote:We'll see if 95L can become a hurricane briefly before the tutt shreads it.
The potential tutt interaction is still ~168 hours out. The positioning of both it and 95L could be very different than what is currently modeled.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#36 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:37 pm

Image
12z GFS brings a weakening TS/TD into the NE Caribbean and then dissipates...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#37 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:38 pm

12z Euro is far to the N with 95L
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#38 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:51 pm

Image
12z Euro with Larry track... Fortunately all the talk of this blocking ridge seems to evaporate each and every storm...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#39 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:53 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#40 Postby pgoss11 » Mon Sep 13, 2021 2:15 pm

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/nn6cOAp.gif
12z Euro with Larry track... Fortunately all the talk of this blocking ridge seems to evaporate each and every storm...


I agree. The pattern is very progressive. Hard to get a viable threat with this pattern.
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