ATL: PETER - Models

[Hurricaneman]

Day 4 is the most important because if 96L doesn’t dip south after that point then 95L might make landfall somewhere on the east coast so it still bears watching until the models get a grasp of the pattern

[canes92]

Does ridge over the USA mean the storm would be pushed towards South Florida?

[sma10]

There's the trap at 240, but again this is still eye opening, 24 hours ago we were discussing the TUTT ripping this to a open wave from a TS in the NE CA, now were talking a strong Hurricane getting near the BA's and banking on the ridge building through the SE ???

Yeah ngl I get frustrated with people that are so sure in the early, early stages of a storm about its fate.

Actually, if you want to know a secret ... go into the archives of every storm that has formed since the creation of Storm2k:

Every thread is the same - you cannot tell them apart

[SouthFLTropics]

Meanwhile CMC much closer under developing ridge. Rapidly develops in Bahamas

https://i.ibb.co/c1mzyxC/gem-z500a-atl-39.pg

Well, even though it is the "crazy uncle", that run of the CMC should generate a little interest among the other Florida folks. The setup for this is really complicated with 96L in play along with the suspect development off of the SE coast next week. We'll get a better idea of what happens with 95L once it gets near 65W.

[Kohlecane]

Asked this before but can anyone post a calibrated ensemble risk model, I think that is what it is called. It was used frequently with Irma from a MET back in the day

[AutoPenalti]

Does ridge over the USA mean the storm would be pushed towards South Florida?

The only model showing this right now is the CMC and it’s a really bad model for analyzing environmental conditions around a storm.

But in this case, yes.

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS Ensembles appear to be trending West...

[Blown Away]

12z CMC sends a Cat 2 into the Bahamas and knocking on the door of SFL...

[gatorcane]

GFS Ensembles appear to be trending West...

This run might get this thread more active again:

[AutoPenalti]

GFS Ensembles appear to be trending West...

This run might get this thread more active again:

https://i.postimg.cc/bNNqLkzt/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh108-222.gif

I'd give it a few more runs.

[aspen]

Well that was a “fun” set of GFS and CMC runs lol.

The CMC drops the idea of 96L meandering over the Gulf Stream, which is why it now shows 95L getting strong north of the GAs and in the Bahamas. That track reminds me of a certain D storm from a few years ago.

[SouthFLTropics]

Trend

[kevin]

https://i.imgur.com/XgkH9lX.gif
12z CMC sends a Cat 2 into the Bahamas and knocking on the door of SFL...

It's 'only' a cat 2 in this run, but neverthelles 12z CMC is giving me some serious Dorian flashbacks. Regardless of 95L's strength, such a path is always concerning.

[Teban54]

Thanks for some eye candy, GFS!

[SFLcane]

GFS Ensembles appear to be trending West...

This run might get this thread more active again:

https://i.postimg.cc/bNNqLkzt/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh108-222.gif

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF has a hurricane approaching the islands...

[RevanTheJedi96]

HWRF has a hurricane approaching the islands...

https://i.imgur.com/vFseGEE.gif

This would likely lead to a path where 95L misses the US, correct?

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF has a hurricane approaching the islands...

https://i.imgur.com/vFseGEE.gif

This would likely lead to a path where 95L misses the US, correct?

Way too early to tell. Too many players on the board right now... 96L, troughs, ridges, potential development off the SE coast next week, etc.

[SFLcane]

[Category5Kaiju]

HWRF has a hurricane approaching the islands...

https://i.imgur.com/vFseGEE.gif

Looks somewhat similar in size and form to a certain legendary M storm 4 years ago...