ECMWF's latest track is unusual for April but the sample size is small
WPAC: SURIGAE - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
mrbagyo
- Category 5
- Posts: 3615
- Age: 32
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
- Location: 14.13N 120.98E
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
02W SURIGAE 210416 0600 9.2N 133.7E WPAC 75 975
ECMWF's latest track is unusual for April but the sample size is small
ECMWF's latest track is unusual for April but the sample size is small
1 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
Not a good look atm.
https://imgur.com/syfHJTM
Manila as you know has drainage problems or did have as far as i know.
0 likes
-
mrbagyo
- Category 5
- Posts: 3615
- Age: 32
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
- Location: 14.13N 120.98E
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
JW-_- wrote:
Not a good look atm.
https://imgur.com/syfHJTM
Manila as you know has drainage problems or did have as far as i know.
bring that to the reservoirs of Taiwan
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
https://imgur.com/lczjpca
Emanual Tropical Spaghetti Model. The max potential chips ens for this tc look like a bomb with
intensity.
http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/storm.html
0 likes
-
mrbagyo
- Category 5
- Posts: 3615
- Age: 32
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
- Location: 14.13N 120.98E
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
[url
[/url]
[/url]
2 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
JTWC 1945-2015 Historical TC above (typhoon) path statistics for each month
https://watch.ncdr.nat.gov.tw/watch_monthlytrack.
Been a few go over PI in April.
https://watch.ncdr.nat.gov.tw/watch_monthlytrack.
Been a few go over PI in April.
Last edited by JW-_- on Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
Latest Euro run has become a landfall, what a turn of events 
, EPS
, EPS
2 likes
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
-
Meow
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 66
- Age: 34
- Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:03 am
- Location: New Taipei, Taiwan
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
Tracks by NMC and CWB are more westward now.
0 likes
Wikimedia User:Meow
Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
Surigae’s difficulty clearing out its eye and its massive CDO is a lot like Maysak from last year. I wonder why the eye isn’t clearing.
0 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
-
dexterlabio
- Category 5
- Posts: 3408
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
Quite a change on the 06z GFS run as well (west)
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
InfernoFlameCat
- Category 5
- Posts: 1966
- Age: 21
- Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
- Location: Buford, GA
Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
The eye is beginning to clear. Now that is a CDO. We should have a clear eye in the next 12 hours.
0 likes
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
There’s finally an early eye on IR.
0 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
-
Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8925
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
JTWC has this at 90 mph, High-end CAT 1 Typhoon
0 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
EC 06Z Catanduanes landfall
0 likes
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
-
mrbagyo
- Category 5
- Posts: 3615
- Age: 32
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
- Location: 14.13N 120.98E
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
-
InfernoFlameCat
- Category 5
- Posts: 1966
- Age: 21
- Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
- Location: Buford, GA
Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
Well this is bad news. The thing is really getting its act together and hitting the Phillipines, Again.
0 likes
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
EWRC or an eyewall meld occurring? Whatever is going on in the core is why the eye has yet to clear.
IR presentation has improved since this microwave pass, and the JTWC BT has just upgraded this to a Category 2.
IR presentation has improved since this microwave pass, and the JTWC BT has just upgraded this to a Category 2.
Last edited by aspen on Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 14 guests