ATL: FRED - Models
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: 94L - Models
Remarkable agreement between the two big models on the day 8 forecast and both do not showing anything close to a hurricane:
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- Blown Away
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Re: ATL: 94L - Models
gatorcane wrote:Remarkable agreement between the two big models on the day 8 forecast and both do not showing anything close to a hurricane:
https://i.postimg.cc/KYrx8cbw/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-9.png
https://i.postimg.cc/ydLK0fkT/gfs-z850-vort-watl-33.png
Track yes, vorticity was much stronger on 12z EURO compared to all previous runs. No way to make conclusions at this point, especially on intensity. JMHO
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Re: ATL: 94L - Models
AtlanticWind wrote:Sometimes organizing systems take little jumps to the north during the process,
could make a difference for this system for clearing Hispanola to the north later on.
Some models are even suggesting a track just south of Hispaniola. We definitely need to see where the center forms. Nothing may happen, but I am leaning towards at least a TD/weak TS now.
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Re: ATL: 94L - Models
captainbarbossa19 wrote:AtlanticWind wrote:Sometimes organizing systems take little jumps to the north during the process,
could make a difference for this system for clearing Hispanola to the north later on.
Some models are even suggesting a track just south of Hispaniola. We definitely need to see where the center forms. Nothing may happen, but I am leaning towards at least a TD/weak TS now.
18z...
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- SFLcane
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Re: ATL: 94L - Models
Blown Away wrote:captainbarbossa19 wrote:AtlanticWind wrote:Sometimes organizing systems take little jumps to the north during the process,
could make a difference for this system for clearing Hispanola to the north later on.
Some models are even suggesting a track just south of Hispaniola. We definitely need to see where the center forms. Nothing may happen, but I am leaning towards at least a TD/weak TS now.
https://i.imgur.com/uCSrfiS.jpg
18z...
Hmm that misses the islands to the north.
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Re: ATL: 94L - Models
SFLcane wrote:Blown Away wrote:captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Some models are even suggesting a track just south of Hispaniola. We definitely need to see where the center forms. Nothing may happen, but I am leaning towards at least a TD/weak TS now.
https://i.imgur.com/uCSrfiS.jpg
18z...
Hmm that misses the islands to the north.
With ridging trending stronger to the north, I would not be surprised to see some south shifts. HWRF has this briefly passing south and then traveling across it. I guess I meant one model. Lol.
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Re: ATL: 94L - Models
Blown Away wrote:captainbarbossa19 wrote:AtlanticWind wrote:Sometimes organizing systems take little jumps to the north during the process,
could make a difference for this system for clearing Hispanola to the north later on.
Some models are even suggesting a track just south of Hispaniola. We definitely need to see where the center forms. Nothing may happen, but I am leaning towards at least a TD/weak TS now.
https://i.imgur.com/uCSrfiS.jpg
18z...
The 18z position is waaay off.
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- captainbarbossa19
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Re: ATL: 94L - Models
Well not sure it's worth mentioning, but the NAVGEM and CMC both have a storm in the Gulf.
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: 94L - Models
Certainly a little bit more exciting in the Atlantic than it was just two days ago!
I doubt the HWRF will verify; it would need to develop incredibly fast for that to happen and that simply doesn't seem very likely at present.
I doubt the HWRF will verify; it would need to develop incredibly fast for that to happen and that simply doesn't seem very likely at present.
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Re: ATL: 94L - Models
xironman wrote:Blown Away wrote:captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Some models are even suggesting a track just south of Hispaniola. We definitely need to see where the center forms. Nothing may happen, but I am leaning towards at least a TD/weak TS now.
https://i.imgur.com/uCSrfiS.jpg
18z...
The 18z position is waaay off.
The NHC is tracking a broad circulation that is very near to the starting points of the 18z models...
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Re: ATL: 94L - Models
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Certainly a little bit more exciting in the Atlantic than it was just two days ago!
I doubt the HWRF will verify; it would need to develop incredibly fast for that to happen and that simply doesn't seem very likely at present.
Dont think its really that fast ,Hwrf doesnt really get it going until after 24 hours.
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Re: ATL: 94L - Models
12z HWRF... Develops 94L into sold Cat1/2 hurricane and just evaporates into the Hispaniola mountains...
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Re: ATL: 94L - Models
That HWRF makes sense track wise, OP models have been readjusting to a stronger ridge out in front.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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- AtlanticWind
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Re: ATL: 94L - Models
AutoPenalti wrote:That HWRF makes sense track wise, OP models have been readjusting to a stronger ridge out in front.
Hwrf oftens trends to far west /south on systems. At least that what I have noticed.
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Re: ATL: 94L - Models
Blown Away wrote:captainbarbossa19 wrote:AtlanticWind wrote:Sometimes organizing systems take little jumps to the north during the process,
could make a difference for this system for clearing Hispanola to the north later on.
Some models are even suggesting a track just south of Hispaniola. We definitely need to see where the center forms. Nothing may happen, but I am leaning towards at least a TD/weak TS now.
https://i.imgur.com/uCSrfiS.jpg
18z...
Look familiar anyone track-wise?
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Re: ATL: 94L - Models
AtlanticWind wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:That HWRF makes sense track wise, OP models have been readjusting to a stronger ridge out in front.
Hwrf oftens trends to far west /south on systems. At least that what I have noticed.
Here we go again with the HWRF, be careful like real careful with HWRF intensity and to a lesser degree track.
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- AtlanticWind
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Re: ATL: 94L - Models
In case anybody hasn't seen the latest 12z Euro ensembles which more jump on board for development.
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