ATL: MINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[IcyTundra]

People are already freaking out here locally on the Northshore. Local news posted a graphic of the lemon, and
Now Without context or explanation people are sharing it on Facebook thinking there’s another major on the way.

People really need to stop doing that all it does is stress people out who don't know any better.

[underthwx]

People are already freaking out here locally on the Northshore. Local news posted a graphic of the lemon, and
Now Without context or explanation people are sharing it on Facebook thinking there’s another major on the way.

People really need to stop doing that all it does is stress people out who don't know any better.

By the same token....I feel the Mets relay to viewers...sensible weather forecasts.including tropical updates...I personally am not familiar with which Met is associated with the FB posts, generated as a result of a Weather forecast...it's not important to me..and believe me when I say....the Ida affected areas....don't need anymore upheaval...as for the topic of this thread..its my understanding, that some deeper tropical moisture, may eventually be pulled Northward into the Western Gulf, before being picked up by a deepening trough, and possibly pulled Eastward, with a potential of limited development, if any possible at this time, due to an unfavorable environment, in the Western GOM...at any rate...with the season approaching peak...we all gotta be aware...and if necessary....prepare...

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

A surface trough over portions of Central America and the
southern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. This system is expected to move
west-northwestward during the next day or two, bringing locally
heavy rains to these areas. The disturbance is expected to move
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend, and then
move northwestward to northward over the western Gulf of Mexico
early next week. However, unfavorable upper-level winds could limit
significant development during that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[IcyTundra]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1433809690572492802




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1433813832028274690

[weeniepatrol]

[wxman57]

Wind shear looks high across the Gulf next week. Could just be a rainfall threat to the NE Gulf around next Thursday.

[psyclone]

Wind shear looks high across the Gulf next week. Could just be a rainfall threat to the NE Gulf around next Thursday.

NE or NW Gulf?

[wxman57]

Wind shear looks high across the Gulf next week. Could just be a rainfall threat to the NE Gulf around next Thursday.

NE or NW Gulf?

NE Gulf - SE LA to Florida. Perhaps a weak low.

[Sciencerocks]

[Nimbus]

Looks like the trough might dig and interact with the energy as it comes into the BOC.
NHC only giving it a 30% though so there are a whole lot of dependencies with shear and ridging.

[AlphaToOmega]

The GFS and ECMWF show possible development off the East Coast of the United States a week from now from Invest 91L.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A surface trough over portions of Central America and the
southern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. This system is expected to move
northwestward during the next day or so, bringing locally heavy
rains to these areas. The disturbance is expected to move over the
southwestern or south-central Gulf of Mexico late this weekend, and
then move generally northward over the western or central Gulf of
Mexico early next week. Unfavorable upper-level winds are expected
to limit development through Monday, but environmental conditions
could become marginally favorable for some gradual development by
Tuesday or Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[xironman]

If nothing else the trough is vigorous this morning. Of course it needs to actually move over water.

[GCANE]

The one coming after this one in the GoM starting to look nasty on the models.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Larry, located over the central tropical Atlantic about midway
between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles.

A surface trough over portions of Central America and the southern
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. This system is expected to move
northwestward during the next day or so, bringing locally heavy
rains to these areas. The disturbance is forecast to emerge over
the southwestern or south-central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and then
move northward or northeastward over the central Gulf of Mexico
through the middle of next week. Unfavorable upper-level winds are
expected to limit development through Monday, but environmental
conditions could become marginally favorable for some gradual
development on Tuesday or Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[GCANE]

Looking a little more on the models, it looks like 91L will help to enhance TPW in the Carib as the setup for a possible major in the GoM a week from Labor Day.
So far, everything I see about that one spells trouble.

[AlphaToOmega]

Is it just me, or does this remind anyone of Claudette?

[Dean4Storms]

Not to say it wouldn't be able to develop anyway as the seas are warm enough for that in the Central Gulf but at least the SST's have been knocked down a couple degrees from Ida's up-welling. That and only marginal UL conditions could help slow any potential strengthening.

[SconnieCane]

Not to say it wouldn't be able to develop anyway as the seas are warm enough for that in the Central Gulf but at least the SST's have been knocked down a couple degrees from Ida's up-welling. That and only marginal UL conditions could help slow any potential strengthening.

The OHC in the Loop Current runs so deep it shouldn't take long for any effects from Ida to be negligible to nil.

[hipshot]

Not to say it wouldn't be able to develop anyway as the seas are warm enough for that in the Central Gulf but at least the SST's have been knocked down a couple degrees from Ida's up-welling. That and only marginal UL conditions could help slow any potential strengthening.

Where is this other storm, in the Caribbean now?