ATL: SAM - Models

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kevin
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#61 Postby kevin » Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:27 pm

Just for a historical reference / statistics, only 10 hurricanes made landfall in the US while originating from the east (I took passing east of Cuba as 'east', Matthew is kind of an edge case) in October, November or December since 1851. Of this subset only 2 passed north of the Caribbean while forming roughly in the MDR (basically the potential set-up for 98L): the 1898 and 1893 hurricanes. It seems to indicate that a US landfall from such a set-up is extremely rare so for now I'm not worrying about that aspect too much (yet). The entire list, in chronological order:

Year / Name / Month / Landfalling state / Wind speed @LF (kt) / Pressure @LF (mb) / Cat@LF

2016 / Matthew / Oct / South Carolina / 75 / 967 / 1
2012 / Sandy* / Oct / New Jersey / 70 / 945 / 1
1966 / Inez / Oct / Florida / 75 / 984 / 1
1954 / Hazel / Oct / South and North Carolina / 115 / 938 / 4
1941 / Unnamed / Oct / Florida / 85 / ?? / 2
1935 / Unnamed / Nov / Florida / 85 / 973 / 2
1913 / Unnamed / Oct / South Carolina / 65 / ?? / 1
1898 / Unnamed / Oct / Georgia / 115 / 938 / 4
1893 / Unnamed / Oct / South Carolina / 105 / 955 / 3
1869 / Unnamed / Oct / Maine / 90 / ?? / 2

* = extra-tropical at landfall

Here are the two 'worst-case scenarios' (1898 and 1893):

1898 Georgia hurricane
Image

1893 Great Charleston Hurricane
Image
Last edited by kevin on Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:14 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#62 Postby sma10 » Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:34 pm

Am I the only one getting 1780 vibes?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#63 Postby edu2703 » Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:44 pm

sma10 wrote:Am I the only one getting 1780 vibes?


I think it's the first time I've seen anyone using the Great Hurricane of 1780 as a reference.
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ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#64 Postby skyline385 » Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:55 pm

edu2703 wrote:
sma10 wrote:Am I the only one getting 1780 vibes?


I think it's the first time I've seen anyone using the Great Hurricane of 1780 as a reference.

There aren't any records of its track though right?

I thought his comment was meant as a joke lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#65 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:56 pm

skyline385 wrote:
edu2703 wrote:
sma10 wrote:Am I the only one getting 1780 vibes?


I think it's the first time I've seen anyone using the Great Hurricane of 1780 as a reference.

There aren't any records of its track though right?

Sadly no as tracks only go back to 1851.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#66 Postby sma10 » Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:02 pm

skyline385 wrote:
edu2703 wrote:
sma10 wrote:Am I the only one getting 1780 vibes?


I think it's the first time I've seen anyone using the Great Hurricane of 1780 as a reference.

There aren't any records of its track though right?

I thought his comment was meant as a joke lol


Yes, of course, it was tongue in cheek. :ggreen:
Just a gentle jibe at all those "I'm getting a strong Gilbert vibe"- type posts whenever a swirl appears off Africa
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#67 Postby LarryWx » Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:05 pm

Out of 51 12Z EPS members, 2 hit S FL from the SE/S, 1 is in the GOM moving NE, and just about all of the rest miss the CONUS. Even though there are only three assumed hits, ~25% make it at least as far W as 70W, which is uncomfortably too close to feel confident about a safe recurve from the CONUS based on this run:

You can see the two S FL hits on this 360 hour map as well as the one in the GOM, which is moving NE:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#68 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:12 pm

LarryWx wrote:Out of 51 12Z EPS members, 2 hit S FL from the SE/S, 1 is in the GOM moving NE, and just about all of the rest miss the CONUS. Even though there are only three assumed hits, ~25% make it at least as far W as 70W, which is uncomfortably too close to feel confident about a safe recurve from the CONUS based on this run:

You can see the two S FL hits on this 360 hour map as well as the one in the GOM, which is moving NE:

https://i.imgur.com/F4dolYc.png


Lol, Looks like a pretty clean recurve except for a couple rogue members.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#69 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:23 pm

LarryWx wrote:Out of 51 12Z EPS members, 2 hit S FL from the SE/S, 1 is in the GOM moving NE, and just about all of the rest miss the CONUS. Even though there are only three assumed hits, ~25% make it at least as far W as 70W, which is uncomfortably too close to feel confident about a safe recurve from the CONUS based on this run:

You can see the two S FL hits on this 360 hour map as well as the one in the GOM, which is moving NE:

https://i.imgur.com/F4dolYc.png

Meh. Recurve it is! :wink:
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#70 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:28 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Out of 51 12Z EPS members, 2 hit S FL from the SE/S, 1 is in the GOM moving NE, and just about all of the rest miss the CONUS. Even though there are only three assumed hits, ~25% make it at least as far W as 70W, which is uncomfortably too close to feel confident about a safe recurve from the CONUS based on this run:

You can see the two S FL hits on this 360 hour map as well as the one in the GOM, which is moving NE:

https://i.imgur.com/F4dolYc.png

Meh. Recurve it is! :wink:


Outside of the impacts to the gulfcoast this entire season has been one big home run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#71 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:56 pm

SFLcane wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Out of 51 12Z EPS members, 2 hit S FL from the SE/S, 1 is in the GOM moving NE, and just about all of the rest miss the CONUS. Even though there are only three assumed hits, ~25% make it at least as far W as 70W, which is uncomfortably too close to feel confident about a safe recurve from the CONUS based on this run:

You can see the two S FL hits on this 360 hour map as well as the one in the GOM, which is moving NE:

https://i.imgur.com/F4dolYc.png

Meh. Recurve it is! :wink:


Outside of the impacts to the gulfcoast this entire season has been one big home run.

Sure, if you're willing to discount Claudette inland across the Southeast; Danny (lol); Elsa, Fred, and Grace all with Caribbean/inland flooding/Caribbean and Yucatan impacts respectively; Henri in the Northeast; Ida in the Caribbean/Venezuela; and Larry in Newfoundland.

Looks like a home run season to me :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#72 Postby sma10 » Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:56 pm

LarryWx wrote:Out of 51 12Z EPS members, 2 hit S FL from the SE/S, 1 is in the GOM moving NE, and just about all of the rest miss the CONUS. Even though there are only three assumed hits, ~25% make it at least as far W as 70W, which is uncomfortably too close to feel confident about a safe recurve from the CONUS based on this run:

You can see the two S FL hits on this 360 hour map as well as the one in the GOM, which is moving NE:

https://i.imgur.com/F4dolYc.png


Of note, many members make the system strong. Also, approx 10-15% of members show tracks with impact to SE US and Bahamas. Believe it or not, that is a significant pct for something currently spinning around at 20W. I wouldn't wager anything on it tho.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#73 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:59 pm

SFLcane wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Out of 51 12Z EPS members, 2 hit S FL from the SE/S, 1 is in the GOM moving NE, and just about all of the rest miss the CONUS. Even though there are only three assumed hits, ~25% make it at least as far W as 70W, which is uncomfortably too close to feel confident about a safe recurve from the CONUS based on this run:

You can see the two S FL hits on this 360 hour map as well as the one in the GOM, which is moving NE:

https://i.imgur.com/F4dolYc.png

Meh. Recurve it is! :wink:


Outside of the impacts to the gulfcoast this entire season has been one big home run.



I agree, the East Coast has been incredibly lucky this season, with no signs of that changing. In fact the chance of changing now that we are heading into October in about a week is extremely slim since fronts will starts coming down even more often....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#74 Postby skyline385 » Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:02 pm

NXStumpy_Robothing wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:Meh. Recurve it is! :wink:


Outside of the impacts to the gulfcoast this entire season has been one big home run.

Sure, if you're willing to discount Claudette inland across the Southeast; Danny (lol); Elsa, Fred, and Grace all with Caribbean/inland flooding/Caribbean and Yucatan impacts respectively; Henri in the Northeast; Ida in the Caribbean/Venezuela; and Larry in Newfoundland.

Looks like a home run season to me :wink:

I think Ida and Grace were the only ones with significant impact. It's still too early to call this season a home run though...
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ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#75 Postby skyline385 » Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:03 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:Meh. Recurve it is! :wink:


Outside of the impacts to the gulfcoast this entire season has been one big home run.



I agree, the East Coast has been incredibly lucky this season, with no signs of that changing. In fact the chance of changing now that we are heading into October in about a week is extremely slim since fronts will starts coming down even more often....

But October is the peak period for landfalling systems in Florida though? Unless Florida is no longer part of the East coast lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#76 Postby grapealcoholic » Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:05 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:Meh. Recurve it is! :wink:


Outside of the impacts to the gulfcoast this entire season has been one big home run.



I agree, the East Coast has been incredibly lucky this season, with no signs of that changing. In fact the chance of changing now that we are heading into October in about a week is extremely slim since fronts will starts coming down even more often....

Except for catastrophic flooding in new england of course
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#77 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:08 pm

Ok,

Home run in the sense most tc’s have turned near 60w.

Back to 98L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#78 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:15 pm

SFLcane wrote:Ok,

Home run in the sense most tc’s have turned near 60w.

Most tcs made landfall. Even Larry made landfall. That would mean 10 landfalls on the mainland (North America) from the Atlantic. 10/17 tc made landfall. 59% have made landfall. Sure is a homer of Tc's slamming into America! :cheesy:
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ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#79 Postby skyline385 » Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:38 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Ok,

Home run in the sense most tc’s have turned near 60w.

Most tcs made landfall. Even Larry made landfall. That would mean 10 landfalls on the mainland (North America) from the Atlantic. 10/17 tc made landfall. 59% have made landfall. Sure is a homer of Tc's slamming into America! :cheesy:

I don't think including 40 kt disorganised systems making landfall counts as slamming into America.

Ida, Grace and Larry were the big ones obviously. Other than that we have had 3 low Cat 1 so far and 10 TS. I honestly wouldn't even mind a TS landfalling here in Florida, some of the heavy downpours we get probably bring more rain than a weak TS lol.

Ida and Grace were bad but if the season were to end like this, it would be a huge respite from the expectations we had from this season even though it's still technically above average...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#80 Postby abajan » Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:52 pm

I was going to post this in just the disco thread, but it's appropriate here too.



Link: https://youtu.be/W5xtLrgUe8g
Last edited by abajan on Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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