ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[grapealcoholic]

T7.0 soon

Unlikely unless the storm can sustain cloud tops W or colder for a half of a degree around the eye (on Black Dvorak color scheme) and the eye temperature itself reaches 9C.

I bet it can

[kevin]

ADT up to 5.3/5.4 and I think it'll just keep rising. I think they'll go with 95 or 100 kt in the next advisory.

[grapealcoholic]

It's going to Cat 5 (opinion)

[kevin]

I wonder how willing NHC would be to upgrade a storm to Cat 5 with satellite data alone

In post-analysis they did so with Lorenzo so perhaps now they've learned about that and know exactly which signs to look for in these cases. Either way recon should hopefully be there around its peak.

[dexterlabio]

If the eye warms further, with thick, cold cloud tops almost or completely surrounding the warm eye, one can easily argue for a Cat5 without recon measurements.

On an interesting note, we have 2 potential Category 5 cyclones in the world at the same time today.

[Extratropical94]

95 knots

18L SAM 210925 0600 12.7N 46.3W ATL 95 973

[grapealcoholic]

I wonder how willing NHC would be to upgrade a storm to Cat 5 with satellite data alone

In post-analysis they did so with Lorenzo so perhaps now they've learned about that and know exactly which signs to look for in these cases. Either way recon should hopefully be there around its peak.

We'll see, looks like it might have some initial peak within 24 hours

[Hammy]

I think we'll be at 120-125 by 11am at the current rate of intensification if it continues.

[kevin]

Raw T# now up to 5.7, so 105 kt. CI# still at 5.4 but it's only a matter of time. Sam is really exploding now. I expected RI, but this really reminds me of those big ones in October 2020 or Maria in 2017.

[grapealcoholic]

Raw T# now up to 5.7, so 105 kt. CI# still at 5.4 but it's only a matter of time. Sam is really exploding now. I expected RI, but this really reminds me of those big ones in October 2020 or Maria in 2017.

I was going to say this is best looking storm since Michael then I remembered some of those Caribbean storms last year

[supercane4867]

Pretty sure this will be the fastest 24-48hr intensification phase in the MDR since Maria 2017

[kevin]

People who went to bed ~5 hours ago will wake up to quite a surprise. I can't see how this doesn't at least become a cat 4 in the coming hours if this intensification continues. As I said I'm getting some Maria vibes from this storm. There's probably way better analogs, but that's the first one that came to mind since I didn't really start tracking until 2016-2017. Also RawT# now up to 6.0, 115 kt.

[grapealcoholic]

Cat 5 is probably a tossup right now

[grapealcoholic]

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 SEP 2021 Time : 072020 UTC
Lat : 12:43:12 N Lon : 46:29:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 963.7mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.8 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +13.8C Cloud Region Temp : -63.4C

Scene Type : EYE

[AxaltaRacing24]

Raw T# now up to 5.7, so 105 kt. CI# still at 5.4 but it's only a matter of time. Sam is really exploding now. I expected RI, but this really reminds me of those big ones in October 2020 or Maria in 2017.

I was going to say this is best looking storm since Michael then I remembered some of those Caribbean storms last year

The Caribbean nearly did more in 2020 than it did during the entire 2010's decade.

[AxaltaRacing24]

People who went to bed ~5 hours ago will wake up to quite a surprise. I can't see how this doesn't at least become a cat 4 in the coming hours if this intensification continues. As I said I'm getting some Maria vibes from this storm. There's probably way better analogs, but that's the first one that came to mind since I didn't really start tracking until 2016-2017. Also RawT# now up to 6.0, 115 kt.

It's more similar to Jose.

[sikkar]

Man the WPac storms are on a totally different level. We have two intensifying canes at the same time but Mindulle can eat Sam alive with Such RI, while Sam is powering up "gracefully".

[cycloneye]

Has it taken a temporary west jog?

[Yellow Evan]

T7.0 soon

Unlikely unless the storm can sustain cloud tops W or colder for a half of a degree around the eye (on Black Dvorak color scheme) and the eye temperature itself reaches 9C.

I bet it can

Very few hurricanes in this part of the world can. This isn’t the WCarb/BOC.