ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2021081200, , BEST, 0, 120N, 377W, 25, 1010, DB

[Sciencerocks]

[AlphaToOmega]

AL, 95, 2021081200, , BEST, 0, 120N, 377W, 25, 1010, DB

Still a disturbance, not even a low yet

[cycloneye]

[hipshot]

Shame I am going to miss the peak of this storm if it develops. Got boot camp for ROTC in college next week.

Oh, that sounds like fun. I've been through that many years ago, not the ROTC version but boot camp none the less.

[Deshaunrob17]

18z Eps says no no for 95l, which may be because they got more bullish on freds intensity.

[ouragans]

1st Hunter on saturday

ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION INTO A CENTRAL ATLANTIC SYSTEM NEAR 17.0N 55.5W FOR 14/1500Z.

[Category5Kaiju]

18z Eps says no no for 95l, which may be because they got more bullish on freds intensity.

Based on Fred's look now and its predicted future, it may be weak enough that it really does not impart any significant shear and other limiting factors on 95L; I think EPS may want to re-evaluate what it thinks of Fred in the near future

[Stormybajan]

Still find it strange how theres little model support for this. I mean, sure its moving briskly but once the convection remains intact it should be able to find better conditions around 50 west (slower trader and less shear) , even the 18z EPS as Deshaun said has backed off. Strange.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1425633458668199937

[Hammy]

Easterly shear seems like a major inhibitor so far this year--this is the second or third strong disturbance/low to be decapitated from the east.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Easterly shear seems like a major inhibitor so far this year--this is the second or third strong disturbance/low to be decapitated from the east.

It's August 11th..... There hasn't been a major before 8/20 in over a decade for a reason (bill 2009).

[ScottNAtlanta]

Easterly shear seems like a major inhibitor so far this year--this is the second or third strong disturbance/low to be decapitated from the east.

That's why they usually wait until they get closer to the islands. Better convergence. Plus the easterly shear coming off the African coast is due to the strength of the African Monsoon this year.

[Hurricaneman]

This will have a better environment further west around 50w where the positive mjo comes into play I think

[JaxGator]

Shame I am going to miss the peak of this storm if it develops. Got boot camp for ROTC in college next week.

Good luck! What branch are you joining? I'm sure you've heard this before, but the experience is what you make of it, don't take anything an instructor says as personal, help your wingmen and vice versa and together (the whole flight or whatever the branch you're joining calls it) y'all will succeed (and have fun). Welcome aboard. If 95L does develop, hoping it doesn’t hit any land areas, but all we can do is be prepared for any outcome. I went through the same thing during Air Force BMT during Hurricane Dorian (which was my main concern at the time and not knowing what hurricane or storm was out there). When my dorm chief and I were escorting a trainee to Fort Sam Houston hospital (he’s fine btw) and we were in the waiting room watching TV for the first time in a month and the first thing that pops up was “Hurricane Dorian is a Cat 1 hurricane forecasted to become a major near Florida”. When I saw Jacksonville in the cone, it was shocking to say the least and had no news for a couple of days afterwards. However, my wingmen and MTIs were supportive during those few uncertain days. Unfortunately the Bahamas took the blow from Dorian, but was happy that my family, friends and hometown were safe.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1425633458668199937




That's some pretty wimpy shear for what's usually the graveyard. Yikes, definitely don't want 95L anywhere in that vicinity.

[Hurricaneman]

50w is probably where things will get going, that’s what the models that show development are showing

[AxaltaRacing24]

50w is probably where things will get going, that’s what the models that show development are showing

50W is always the magic number.

[ElectricStorm]

No change

1. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
tropical wave located about 1500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by
early next week while the system moves generally westward at about
20 mph across the tropical Atlantic. This system is expected to
reach portions of the Leeward Islands late Saturday or early Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1425640273103757322



 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1425643478701285377



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1425644047457263617



 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1425646702153842691