SIO: DANILO - Remnants

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Nancy Smar
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SIO: DANILO - Remnants

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Fri Jan 01, 2021 9:22 am

WTIO30 FMEE 011321
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/6/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/01 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6 S / 72.3 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/02 00 UTC: 11.5 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 10 SW: 75 NW: 95

24H: 2021/01/02 12 UTC: 11.3 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 10 SW: 75 NW: 130

36H: 2021/01/03 00 UTC: 12.4 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 130 SW: 285 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 20 SW: 140 NW: 120

48H: 2021/01/03 12 UTC: 14.6 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 295 SW: 195 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 150

60H: 2021/01/04 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 175 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 55 SW: 95 NW: 85

72H: 2021/01/04 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 295 SW: 155 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/05 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 305 SW: 315 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SW: 220 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2021/01/06 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 400 SW: 380 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SW: 260 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SW: 110 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 50 SW: 70 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTION IN CURVED BAND CONFIGURATION
HAS BEEN QUITE FLUCTUATING BUT HAS MAINTAINED A STRUCTURE JUSTIFYING
A DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 2.5+. FOLLOWING THIS ANALYSIS THE 06 SYSTEM WAS
NAMED DANILO BY THE MAURITIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE AND IS THEREFORE
NOW A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.

STILL QUASI-STATIONARY, THE STORM REMAINS AT THE EDGE OF A
NORTH-EASTERN SHEAR ZONE ANALYZED BY CIMSS. IT WILL KEEP THIS
QUASI-STATIONARY CHARACTER DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BY REMAINING
NESTED ON THE AXIS OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS WEEKEND, IT SHOULD
START A MORE NOTABLE DISPLACEMENT IN A GENERAL SOUTH-EASTERN THEN
SOUTHERN DIRECTION, SUCKED UP BY THE OTHER SYSTEM (FUJIWHARA EFFECT)
AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERLY FLOW PRESENT NORTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. BY SUNDAY, THE CIRCULATION SHOULD THEN MIX WITH
SYSTEM 5. FROM THIS DATE, THE SYSTEM RESULTING FROM THIS INTERACTION
BETWEEN SYSTEMS 05 AND DANILO SHOULD THEN RESUME A GENERALLY WESTERLY
TRAJECTORY ON THE NORTHERN FACE OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

THE SYSTEM REMAINS ON THE EDGE OF A NORTHEASTERN SHEAR UNTIL TONIGHT,
THEN THE ALTITUDE CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER, THE INTERACTION WITH MODERATE TROPICAL STORM DANILO TO THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY MODIFY LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS. THE
AVAILABLE MODELS PROPOSE THE DOMINANCE OF DANILO OVER SYSTEM 5, WITH
DANILO CUTTING OFF THE MONSOON SUPPLY TO ITS RIVAL. EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THE SURVIVING SYSTEM SHOULD BENEFIT FROM ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
THAT FAVOUR ITS STRENGTHENING, ALTHOUGH DRY MID-TROPOSPHERE AIR TO
THE SOUTH COULD SLOW ITS PACE. DEPENDING ON THE LATITUDE AT WHICH IT
EVOLVES, THE SYSTEM COULD BE GENERATED BY A LACK OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL
SOUTH OF 200S OR MODERATE NORTHEAST SHEAR AROUND 15S. FOR THE MOMENT,
THE PRESENT INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SCENARIO OF THE EUROPEAN
NUMERICAL MODEL WITH A CONTINUOUS INTENSIFICATION DUE TO ITS
SOUTHERLY LOCATION UNDER A LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

AS FOR THE FORECAST OF SYSTEM 05, THE CONFIDENCE IN TRACK AND
INTENSITY REMAINS LOW AS THE TWO SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER.
ONE OF THE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD TAKE OVER BUT IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT
THEY NEUTRALIZE EACH OTHER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE OF BETTER
QUALITY AS SOON AS THE RESULTING SYSTEM IS BETTER DEFINED. AS FOR THE
WESTERN TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, IT IS RELATIVELY WELL DEFINED IN THE
LONG TERM.=
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Re: SIO: DANILO - Tropical Storm

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 02, 2021 12:57 pm

08S DANILO 210102 1200 10.8S 72.5E SHEM 45 994
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Re: SIO: DANILO - Tropical Storm

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 02, 2021 12:59 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 021248
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/6/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO)
2.A POSITION 2021/01/02 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8 S / 72.3 E
(TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 110
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/03 00 UTC: 11.5 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 215 SW: 230 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 155
24H: 2021/01/03 12 UTC: 13.0 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 155
36H: 2021/01/04 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 155
48H: 2021/01/04 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 155
60H: 2021/01/05 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 315 SW: 230 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 195 NW: 155
72H: 2021/01/05 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 335 SW: 230 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 215 NW: 155
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/06 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 380 SW: 260 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 75
120H: 2021/01/07 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 435 SW: 295 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SW: 285 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-
THE CENTER OF DANILO REMAINS COVERED BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD TOPS DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE PHASE OF THE
DIURNAL CYCLE OF OCEANIC CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS NOW AT
45 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE (SATCON, ADT) WHICH
ARE NOW NEAR 45/50 KT. THE SSMI OF 1133Z SHOWS THAT A MIS LEVELS EYE,
SLIGHTLY TILTED TO THE NORTHWEST, HAS APPEARED.
DANILO HAS MOVED LITTLE OVERALL TODAY. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRENGTHENING OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL
WEST-TO-NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE
FUJIWHARA EFFECT WITH THE 05 SYSTEM, DANILO SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE STORM DANILO WILL
TAKE OVER WHILE SYSTEM 05 WILL EVENTUALLY DISAPPEAR IN ITS
CIRCULATION.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ONCE THE CIRCULATION OF SYSTEM 05 DISAPPEARS, THE
MOVEMENT SHOULD SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
SEVERAL OPPOSING DIRECTIONAL FLOWS: NORTHWEST FLOW RELATED TO THE
EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND SOUTHEAST FLOW RELATED TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
FROM TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, AND THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE EQUATORIAL
RIDGE, THE SYSTEM COULD RESUME A GENERAL WESTERLY MOTION ON THE NORTH
FACE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME EVEN STRONGER IN THE
VERY SHORT TERM. BY THE END OF NEXT NIGHT, THE UNFAVORABLE
INTERACTION WITH SYSTEM 05 AND THE PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVELS
NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR, COULD WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. THEREAFTER, AFTER THE PROBABLE DISAPPEARANCE OF SYSTEM 5,
DANILO COULD BENEFIT FROM MORE CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR STRENGTHENING
(LOW SHEAR BELOW THE UPPER RIDGE).
SINCE THE 06Z RUN, THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO HAS INCREASED
SINCE IT IS SUGGESTED BY ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCES AND A LARGE NUMBER OF
MEMBERS OF THE EPS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. NEVERTHELESS,
CONSIDERING THE COMPLEXITY OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SITUATION, THE
UNCERTAINTY ON THIS FORECAST REMAINS IMPORTANT.=
NNNN
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Re: SIO: DANILO - Tropical Storm

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 02, 2021 4:43 pm

ZCZC 119
WTIO30 FMEE 021906
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/6/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO)
2.A POSITION 2021/01/02 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.1 S / 72.4 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 110
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/03 06 UTC: 12.0 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 75
24H: 2021/01/03 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 150 SW: 95 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 55 NW: 85
36H: 2021/01/04 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 140 SW: 195 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95
48H: 2021/01/04 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 165 SW: 215 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 95
60H: 2021/01/05 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 100
72H: 2021/01/05 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 285 SW: 315 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 75
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/06 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 75
120H: 2021/01/07 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 415 SW: 295 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SW: 285 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED WITH HOWEVER A STRONG COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS. THE
DVORAK ANALYSIS STILL LEAVES DANILO AT THE STAGE OF A MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM, WHICH IS VALIDATED BY THE SCATSAT SWATH OF 1430UTC.
DANILO STARTED ITS SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT AT A STILL WEAK PACE. OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRENGTHENING
WEST-TO-NORTHWEST NEAR EQUATORIAL MID-TROPICAL FLOW, DANILO IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD. WITH THE COLLAPSE OF
CONVECTION, THE 05 SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DISAPPEAR UNDER THE EFFECT
OF DANILO. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF OPPOSING
DIRECTIONAL FLOWS: NORTHWEST FLOW RELATED TO THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND
SOUTHEAST FLOW RELATED TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, DANILO WILL SLOW ITS
TRACK. FROM TUESDAY, FOLLOWING THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE EQUATORIAL
RIDGE, DANILO COULD RESUME A GENERAL WESTERLY SHIFT ON THE NORTH FACE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT
FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEN, DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A
MID-LEVELS NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR, DANILO
SHOULD SHOW A SLIGHT WEAKENING. FOLLOWING THE FORECASTED TRACK,
DANILO WILL PLACE ITSELF UNDER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVORABLE TO
A MORE MARKED INTENSIFICATION (LOW SHEAR BELOW THE HIGH RIDGE).
ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCES START ON THIS SCENARIO OF A
WESTWARD TRACK, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
INTENSIFICATION, WHICH COULD BE LESS DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE
HIGH RIDGE AND THE TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN.=
NNNN
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Re: SIO: DANILO - Moderate Tropical Storm

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 02, 2021 10:13 pm

ZCZC 414
WTIO30 FMEE 030023
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/6/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO)
2.A POSITION 2021/01/03 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.5 S / 72.9 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 0 SW: 50 NW: 45
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/03 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 75 SW: 165 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 100
24H: 2021/01/04 00 UTC: 14.7 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 55 NW: 65
36H: 2021/01/04 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 120 SW: 230 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 65
48H: 2021/01/05 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 165 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 95
60H: 2021/01/05 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 220 SW: 280 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 95
72H: 2021/01/06 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 305 SW: 315 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 215 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 75
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/07 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 285 SW: 305 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 75
120H: 2021/01/08 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5
DURING THE NIGHT, THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED WITH CLOUD TOPS REMAINING QUITE COLD. THE ESTIMATED CENTER
IS BELOW THE MASS IN THE SOUTH-EST SECTOR DUE TO A NORTHWEST
CONSTRAINT. FOLLOWING THE DVORAK ANALYSIS, IT IS POSSIBLE TO DEFINE A
VALUE OF 3.5. IN THE ABSENCE OF SATELLITE WIND DATA, THE WIND
ESTIMATE RESULTING FROM THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS TAKEN AND THEREFORE
LEAVES WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 50KT. AT 00UTC, DANILO PASSES THE
THRESHOLD OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. ASSOCIATED WITH THE 05 SYSTEM,
FAR IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS STRONG IN THE
AREA OF SLOWING MONSOON FLOW.
DANILO CONTINUES ITS SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH A GRADUAL
ACCELERATION. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRENGTHENING WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR EQUATORIAL MID-TROPOSPHERE,
DANILO WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD. FROM MONDAY, UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF OPPOSING DIRECTIONAL FLOWS: NORTHWEST FLOW LINKED TO
THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND SOUTHEAST FLOW LINKED TO THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, DANILO WILL SLOW DOWN ITS TRACK. FROM TUESDAY, FOLLOWING THE
DISAPPEARANCE OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE, DANILO COULD RESUME A GENERAL
WESTWARD SHIFT ON THE NORTH FACE OF THE HIGH SUBTROPICAL
GEOPOTENTIALS. THE TIMING OF THIS SLOWDOWN FOLLOWED BY THE TURN WILL
BE DECISIVE FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE GENERATED SOON BY THE
PRESENCE OF A NORTHWESTERN CONSTRAINT IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE
ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR. THIS STRESS SHOULD PRESENT A SLIGHT
WEAKENING ON DANILO. FOLLOWING THE FORECASTED TRACK, WHOSE TIMING IS
IMPORTANT, DANILO SHOULD BE UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
BY TUESDAY FOR A MORE MARKED INTENSIFICATION (LOW SHEAR BELOW THE
HIGH RIDGE).
ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCES START ON THIS WESTWARD TRACK
SCENARIO, THERE IS STILL A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
INTENSIFICATION WHICH COULD BE LESS DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AND THE TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN. THE PRESENT FORECAST
PRESENTS AN ADVANTAGEOUS SCENARIO FOR THE INTENSIFICATION OF DANILO.=
NNNN
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Re: SIO: DANILO - Severe Tropical Storm

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 03, 2021 6:47 am

ZCZC 832
WTIO30 FMEE 030642
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/6/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO)
2.A POSITION 2021/01/03 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.9 S / 73.5 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 0 SW: 85 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 55
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/03 18 UTC: 13.3 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 55 SW: 30 NW: 95
24H: 2021/01/04 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 55 NW: 75
36H: 2021/01/04 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 65
48H: 2021/01/05 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 75
60H: 2021/01/05 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 75 SW: 175 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 75
72H: 2021/01/06 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 95 SW: 185 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 85
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/07 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 370 SW: 240 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 85
120H: 2021/01/08 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 425 SW: 280 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5
DURING THE NIGHT, THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED WITH CLOUD TOPS REMAINING QUITE COLD. THE LAST SATELLITE
WIND DATA ASCAT-A OF 03H30UTC SHOW WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 50KT IN THE
NORTH-EAST QUADRANT. ASSOCIATED WITH THE 05 SYSTEM, FAR IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS STRONG IN THE AREA OF
SLOWING MONSOON FLOW.
DANILO CONTINUES ITS SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH A GRADUAL
ACCELERATION. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, UNDER THE INCREASING
INFLUENCE OF A STRENGTHENING WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR EQUATORIAL
MID-TROPOSPHERE, DANILO WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD.
FROM MONDAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF OPPOSING DIRECTIONAL FLOWS:
NORTHWEST FLOW LINKED TO THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND SOUTHEAST FLOW
LINKED TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, DANILO WILL SLOW DOWN ITS TRACK.
FROM TUESDAY, FOLLOWING THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE,
DANILO COULD RESUME A GENERAL WESTWARD SHIFT ON THE NORTH FACE OF THE
HIGH SUBTROPICAL GEOPOTENTIALS. THE TIMING OF THIS SLOWDOWN FOLLOWED
BY THE TURN WILL BE DECISIVE FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE GENERATED SOON BY THE
PRESENCE OF A NORTHWESTERN CONSTRAINT IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE, AND
THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE INTO THE
NORTH-EAST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS,
DANILO SHOULD PRESENT A SLIGHT WEAKENING.
FOLLOWING THE FORECASTED TRACK, WHOSE TIMING IS IMPORTANT, DANILO
SHOULD BE UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY FROM
TUESDAY FOR A MORE MARKED INTENSIFICATION (LOW SHEAR BELOW THE HIGH
RIDGE).
ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCES START ON THIS WESTWARD TRACK
SCENARIO, THERE IS STILL A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
INTENSIFICATION WHICH COULD BE LESS DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AND THE TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN. THE PRESENT FORECAST
PRESENTS AN ADVANTAGEOUS SCENARIO FOR THE INTENSIFICATION OF DANILO.=
NNNN
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Re: SIO: DANILO - Severe Tropical Storm

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 03, 2021 6:26 pm

ZCZC 857
WTIO30 FMEE 031854
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/6/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO)
2.A POSITION 2021/01/03 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1 S / 75.3 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 45 SW: 75 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 45
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/04 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 75 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
24H: 2021/01/04 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 55 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
36H: 2021/01/05 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 65 NW: 65
48H: 2021/01/05 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 95
60H: 2021/01/06 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 110 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 85
72H: 2021/01/06 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 65
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/07 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 370 SW: 230 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 175
120H: 2021/01/08 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 64.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 435 SW: 240 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 90
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5
DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE CDO IS SMALLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO, IT IS
STILL CHARACTERIZED BY VERY COLD TOPS WITH SOME HINT OF A WARM SPOT
BY TIME. MOREOVER THE GPM OF 1320Z SHOWED THAT THE EYE STRUCTURE IS
BETTER DEFINED IN BOTH 89 AND 37 GHZ WITH LESS TILT THAN BEFORE. THE
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS FURTHERMORE THAT THIS EYE STRUCTURE FITS INTO
A VERY SMALL CENTRAL CORE. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 55
KT BASED ON THE UPPER LIMIT OF THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES WHICH ARE
50-55 KT.
THE INTERACTION WITH THE 05 SYSTEM INFLECTED THE SOUTHEASTWARD
DISPLACEMENT OF DANILO. REINFORCED BY THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF THE
EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE PRESENT IN THE NORTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM, DANILO WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD.
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF OPPOSING DIRECTIONAL
FLOWS: NORTHWESTERLY FLOWS LINKED TO THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOWS LINKED TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, DANILO WILL SLOW
DOWN ITS TRACK.
FROM WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWING THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE,
DANILO SHOULD RESUME A GENERAL WESTERLY TRACK ON THE NORTH FACE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS OF THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL QUITE FAVORABLE
DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FLAT DURING THIS
PERIOD BUT CONSIDERING THE SMALL DIMENSIONS OF THE SYSTEM, A MORE
MARKED INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE A CREDIBLE ALTERNATIVE. DURING
THE NIGHT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY, THE ENVIRONMENT DETERIORATES WITH
THE PRESENCE OF A CONSTRAINT IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE, ASSOCIATED
WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT FAVORING THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR INTO THE
CIRCULATION. DANILO SHOULD STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN THE MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM STAGE DURING THIS PERIOD.
FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, WITH THE ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM UNDER THE
EFFECT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, DALINO SHOULD FIND MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION (LOW SHEAR BELOW THE
HIGH RIDGE).
ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCES START ON THIS WESTWARD
TRAJECTORY SCENARIO, THERE IS STILL A GREAT VARIABILITY FROM ONE
SYSTEM TO ANOTHER. THERE IS THEREFORE STILL A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION WHICH COULD BE LESS DEPENDING ON
THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE TIMING OF THE TURN.=
NNNN
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Re: SIO: DANILO - Moderate Tropical Storm

#8 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:03 am

WTIO30 FMEE 041313
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/6/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO)
2.A POSITION 2021/01/04 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 76.2 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 335 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/05 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 270 NW: 95
24H: 2021/01/05 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 250 NW: 95
36H: 2021/01/06 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SW: 130 NW: 55
48H: 2021/01/06 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 55
60H: 2021/01/07 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 150 SW: 55 NW: 65
72H: 2021/01/07 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 230 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 155 SW: 75 NW: 65
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/08 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 175 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SW: 45 NW: 65
120H: 2021/01/09 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 230 SW: 390 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SW: 20 NW: 65
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.5
IN THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR DANILO CENTRE HAS
BEEN LOCALLY REINFORCED, AND THE CENTRE IS ONCE AGAIN EMBEDDED IN THE
CDO. THE LATEST MICROWAVE DATA DO NOT SHOW A WELL-DEFINED
ORGANISATION, APART FROM THE PRESENCE OF CB IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CENTRE. THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE MAINTAINED
AT 35 KT.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF OPPOSING DIRECTIONAL FLOWS: NORTH-WESTERLY
FLOW IN RELATION TO THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND SOUTH-EASTERLY FLOW IN
RELATION TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, FOLLOWING THE EVACUATION
OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE TOWARDS THE EAST, DANILO SHOULD RESUME A
GENERAL WESTERLY MOVEMENT ON THE NORTH FACE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
GEOPOTENTIALS OF THE LOW TO MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE FORECAST IS PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN.
INDEED, THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER A NORTH SECTOR SHEAR OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SEVERAL SCENARIOS ARE EMERGING IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCES. THE ENGLISH MODEL
AND MEMBERS OF THE EPS FORECAST A SYSTEM THAT RESISTS SHEAR ALOFT AND
REINTENSIFIES BELOW THE HIGH RIDGE, WHEREAS THE EUROPEAN MODEL
PROPOSES AN ALMOST DEFINITIVE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.=
NNNN
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Re: SIO: DANILO - Moderate Tropical Storm

#9 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:14 pm

ZCZC 790
WTIO30 FMEE 050014
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/6/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO)
2.A POSITION 2021/01/05 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 76.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 510 SW: 510 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 130 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/05 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 250 SW: 280 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 65
24H: 2021/01/06 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SW: 65 NW: 65
36H: 2021/01/06 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 250 SW: 325 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 65
48H: 2021/01/07 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 220 SW: 250 NW: 55
60H: 2021/01/07 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 195 SW: 280 NW: 55
72H: 2021/01/08 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 175 SW: 270 NW: 55
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/09 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SW: 470 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 20 NW: 65
120H: 2021/01/10 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SW: 470 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SW: 30 NW: 65
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5
OVER THE LAST 6 HRS, THE CDO PATTERN MAINTAINED OVER THE CENTER. THE
2006Z AMSR2 MW IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE INNER
STRUCTURE KEEPS ON. GIVEN THE INNER CONVECTION RING DISPLAYED ON THE
89GHZ AMSR2 IMAGE AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATE, THE
SYSTEM IS ONCE AGAIN UPGRADED TO THE SEVER TROPICAL STORM STAGE.
HOWEVER, THE 37GHZ IMAGE WHOS A WEAKNESS IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND ITS COMPARISON WITH THE 89GHZ IMAGE SUGGEST A
SOUTH-WESTWARD TILT. THUS, THE NORTH-EASTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR COULD
ALREADY BE AFFECTING DANILO'S STRUCTURE. THE MID-SHEAR CIMSS ANALYSIS
SUPPORT THIS HYPOTHESIS. ADDITIONALLY, THE VERY LAST SAT IMAGES
AVAILABLE ARE ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF DISORGANIZATION OF THE CDO.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP
ON SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTH-EASTWARD TODAY. FROM THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD, DANILO IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE MID/LOW LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. AT THE END OF THE TAUS, DANILO COULD TURN
SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTH-WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT
THE GUIDANCE DISPERSION IS PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THESE FORECAST LEAD
TIMES.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE FORECAST REMAINS PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN.
THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY IN THE MID THEN
UPPER LEVELS. IT SHOULD GRADUALLY INJECT DRY AIR IN THE INNER CORE OF
THE SYSTEM. THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THUS SUGGEST A
WEAKENING TREND. DANILO IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES AT A WEAK TO MODERATE INTENSITY. FROM
FRIDAY, THE UPPER CONSTRAINT COULD EASE OFF AND A GOOD UPPER OUTFLOW
COULD APPEAR, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A SIGNIFICANT REINTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER, A SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT
CONDITIONS COULD ALSO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE TO DANILO'S DEVELOPMENT.=
NNNN
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Re: SIO: DANILO - Severe Tropical Storm

#10 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 05, 2021 5:03 am

WTIO30 FMEE 050632
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/6/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO)
2.A POSITION 2021/01/05 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 76.6 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 510 SW: 510 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 130 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/05 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 280 SW: 285 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
24H: 2021/01/06 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 140 SW: 220 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 65
36H: 2021/01/06 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 380 SW: 280 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 95
48H: 2021/01/07 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 250 SW: 325 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 130 NW: 65
60H: 2021/01/07 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 150 SW: 240 NW: 55
72H: 2021/01/08 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 140 SW: 175 NW: 55
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/09 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 470 SW: 470 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 110
120H: 2021/01/10 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 480 SW: 470 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 110
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0
IN THE LAST FEW HOURS, THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS NOT CHANGED.
IT IS THEREFORE STILL A CDO PATTERN.
HOWEVER, WE NOTICE ON THIS MORNING'S VISIBLE CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGES
THAT CONVECTION HAS FLARED OUT AROUND THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM.
THE LATEST SSMIS F17 MICROWAVE IMAGES OF 0107Z INDICATE A WESTWARD
SHIFT OF THE LOW LAYER CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS OBSERVATION IS
CONFIRMED BY THE ANALYSIS OF SHEAR ALOFT; IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE,
THE SHEAR IS MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE EASTERN SECTOR, AT THE EDGE OF
THE RIDGE. IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE, THE SHEAR IS MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN ESTIMATE OF 55 KT. THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES (ADT AND
SATCON) ESTIMATE A VALUE OF 50 KT, LEAVING THE SYSTEM AT THE STAGE OF
A STRONG TROPICAL STORM.
IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY FORECAST, THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. INDEED, THE SYSTEM IS SUBJECT TO CONTRARY FLOWS IN
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THEN, UNDER THE
EFFECT OF THE EASTWARD EVACUATION OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE DRIVEN MORE BY THE EASTWARD FLOW
GENERATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER, AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD, DANILO COULD TURN SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE NORTHWEST FACE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT CURRENTLY THE DISPERSION OF THE MODELS IS
PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT AT THESE TIMES.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. THE CIMMS
DATA ANALYSIS SHOW A SHEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST SECTOR ON AVERAGE AND
THEN FROM THE EAST SECTOR IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE. IT SHOULD
PROGRESSIVELY ADVECT DRY AIR ALOFT WITHIN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. THE
MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS SUGGEST A WEAKENING. THUS, DANILO
SHOULD TRACK ON THE NORTH FACE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AT A
MODERATE INTENSITY FROM WEDNESDAY. ON SATURDAY, THE ALTITUDE
CONSTRAINT COULD RELAX AND A GOOD DIVERGENCE COULD BE IN PLACE, WHICH
COULD ALLOW A REINTENSIFICATION OF THE METEOR THIS COMING WEEKEND
ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. HOWEVER, OTHER MODELS PREDICT THE
MAINTENANCE OF UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANILO.=
NNNN
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Re: SIO: DANILO - Severe Tropical Storm

#11 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 05, 2021 10:47 am

ZCZC 118
WTIO30 FMEE 051234
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/6/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO)
2.A POSITION 2021/01/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 77.2 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 510 SW: 510 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 130 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/06 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 185 SW: 215 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 20 SW: 55 NW: 65
24H: 2021/01/06 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 280 SW: 335 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 65
36H: 2021/01/07 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 350 SW: 345 NW: 120
48H: 2021/01/07 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 55
60H: 2021/01/08 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 205 SW: 285 NW: 55
72H: 2021/01/08 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 470 NW: 55
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/09 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 470 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 30 NW: 65
120H: 2021/01/10 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SW: 470 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SW: 30 NW: 65
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.0
PREVIOUSLY PRESENT IN A CDO PATTERN, THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM NOW
APPEARS AS A MORE SHEARED STRUCTURE, WITH A CENTER SHIFTED AT THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. THIS ANALYSIS IS CONFIRMED BOTH BY
SATELLITE IMAGES (AMSR2 OF 0819Z) AND BY CIMMS DATA.
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RESISTS TO THIS SHEAR AS SHOWN BY THE
SATELLITE IMAGES IN THE HRV CHANNEL, WHERE WE SEE MANY CONVECTIVE
BURSTS. DVORAK SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ESTIMATES WINDS STILL AT 55 KT.
THE OBJECTIVE ASSETS ARE OF THE ORDER OF 50 KT IN WEAKENING SINCE
THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM REMAINS FOR THE MOMENT AT THE STAGE OF A
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM. CONCERNING ITS TRACK, OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS,
DANILO HAS TEMPORARILY STARTED A SMALL SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST.
IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, DANILO REMAINS SUBJECT TO CONTRARY FLOWS
IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE UNTIL WEDNESDAY, SOON SETTING A
WESTWARD TRACK. THEN, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE EASTWARD EVACUATION OF
THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE, DANILO'S MOVE WILL BE DRIVEN MORE BY THE
EASTERLY FLOW GENERATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER, AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD, DANILO COULD TURN SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE NORTHWEST FACE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER, THE DISPERSION OF THE MODELS IS
PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT AT THESE TIMES.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AND THE
CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN REVISED DOWNWARDS COMPARED TO
THIS MORNING. AT THIS STAGE DANILO WILL UNDERGO MODERATE TO STRONG
EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR ALOFT, COUPLED WITH AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR
ALOFT, WHICH WILL GREATLY ATTENUATE ITS INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS, TO REACH THE STAGE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINTS COULD RELAX AND
A GOOD DIVERGENCE COULD DEVELOP ON THE POLAR SIDE, WHICH COULD LEAD
TO A SLIGHT REINTENSIFICATION OF DANILO THIS WEEKEND, ACCORDING TO
THE PRESENT FORECAST.=
NNNN
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Re: SIO: DANILO - Moderate Tropical Storm

#12 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 05, 2021 4:22 pm

ZCZC 118
WTIO30 FMEE 051900
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/6/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO)
2.A POSITION 2021/01/05 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 76.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 555 SW: 520 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 55
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/06 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 150 SW: 205 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 85 SW: 35 NW: 65
24H: 2021/01/06 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 240 SW: 305 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 110 NW: 65
36H: 2021/01/07 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 100 SW: 35 NW: 65
48H: 2021/01/07 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 335 SW: 260 NW: 55
60H: 2021/01/08 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 165 SW: 195 NW: 55
72H: 2021/01/08 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 185 NW: 55
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/09 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 30 NW: 65
120H: 2021/01/10 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 30 NW: 65
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5- CI=3.5-
DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE NORTHERLY SHEAR,
THE UPPER AND LOWER CIRCULATION HAVE BEEN TOTALLY SEPARATED. AS A
RESULT, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS COLLAPSED. THE 1340Z SSMIS AND 1646Z
AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGES CONFIRM THIS. THE INTENSITY WAS FIXED AT 45KT
IN THE ABSENCE OF SCATTEROMETRIC DATA ON THE CENTRE. THE LATEST DATA
ALSO SEEMS TO INDICATE THE BEGINNING OF A WESTWARD SHIFT.
IN TERMS OF TRACK PREDICTION, IF THE RECENT TRACK IS CONFIRMED,
DANILO'S MOVEMENT IS STARTING TO BE DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THIS MOVEMENT SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD, DANILO COULD MOVE SOUTH-WESTARD WITH THE SHIFT OF THE
GEOPOTENTIAL HIGHS TOWARDS THE EAST.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. THE SHEAR
THAT HAS INFLUENCED DANILO SHOULD PERSIST TOMORROW. ANOTHER
NORTH-WESTERN CONSTRAINT COULD ALSO IMPACT THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. IN
THIS UNFAVOURABLE CONTEXT, CONDUCIVE TO DRY AIR INTRUSIONS, THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVOURABLE WITH A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW SHEAR. HOWEVER,
SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE WEAK ON THE NORTHERN SIDE. SO THIS
POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. AS SUGGESTED BY SOME
DETERMINISTIC RUNS, THE INTENSITY COULD BE MORE MODEST THAN THE
PRESENT FORECAST.=
NNNN
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Re: SIO: DANILO - Moderate Tropical Storm

#13 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 06, 2021 5:41 am

ZCZC 018
WTIO30 FMEE 060640
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/6/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO)
2.A POSITION 2021/01/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 75.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 720 SW: 465 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/06 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 75 NW: 0
24H: 2021/01/07 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 30 SE: 205 SW: 215 NW: 55
36H: 2021/01/07 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 30 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 55
48H: 2021/01/08 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 30 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 55
60H: 2021/01/08 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 315 SW: 445 NW: 55
72H: 2021/01/09 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SW: 445 NW: 55
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/10 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 280 SW: 470 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 130 SW: 30 NW: 65
120H: 2021/01/11 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 165 SW: 100 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 130 SW: 45 NW: 65
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0
DANILO STILL PRESENTS A SHEAR PATTERN WITH A CENTER LOCATED AT THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS DEEP CONVECTION
HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS BUT SHOWS A LOT OF
FLUCTUATIONS. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON THE DIFFERENT ASCAT
SWATHS OF THE MORNING WHICH SHOW MAXIMUM WINDS AT 35 KT IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, DANILO IS MOVING WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS TRACK
SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD,
DANILO COULD MOVE MORE SOUTH-WESTWARDS WITH THE SHIFT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGHS TOWARDS THE EAST.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. THE SHEAR
THAT IMPACTED DANILO SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. IN THIS
STILL FAVORABLE CONTEXT FOR DRY AIR INTRUSIONS, THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. OVER THE WEEKEND,
THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION WITH A GOOD UPPER LEVELS DIVERGENCE AND LOW SHEAR.
HOWEVER, SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE WEAK ON THE NORTH SIDE. SO
THIS POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. THE MOST RELIABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCES DIVERGE AT THIS TIME: RE-INTENSIFICATION
SUGGESTED BY IFS AND FILLING BY GFS / HWRF.=
NNNN
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Re: SIO: DANILO - Tropical Depression

#14 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 07, 2021 8:51 am

ZCZC 214
WTIO30 FMEE 071212
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/6/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (DANILO)
2.A POSITION 2021/01/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 69.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 555 SW: 280 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/08 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 585 SW: 335 NW: 0
24H: 2021/01/08 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 585 SW: 335 NW: 0
36H: 2021/01/09 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 585 SW: 335 NW: 110
48H: 2021/01/09 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 585 SW: 335 NW: 130
60H: 2021/01/10 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 60.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 585 SW: 335 NW: 150
72H: 2021/01/10 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 585 SW: 335 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SW: 195 NW: 75
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/11 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 585 SW: 335 NW: 215
120H: 2021/01/12 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0;CI=2.5
LITTLE CHANGE ON DANILO'S CLOUD PATTERN OVER THE LAST 12 HRS, WITH
SPORADIC CONVECTIVE BURSTS STILL OCCURRING PREFERENTIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE, CONVECTION
SEEMS TO HAVE WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE VERY LAST HOURS. DANILO'S
CENTER PASSED IN THE VICINITY OF WMO BUOY NB 5601576 THAT GAVE A
995HPA READING AT 1000Z (WITH THE BAROMETRIC TIDE ADJUSTMENT).
IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, DANILO IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. FROM THE WEEKEND, DANILO
SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTH-WESTWARDS WITH THE SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGHS TOWARDS THE EAST. THE EURO ENSEMBLE DISPERSION IS MODERATE OVER
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE MID-LEVEL SHEAR THAT AFFECTED DANILO IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING
ACCORDING TO CIMSS ANALYSIS. THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
DOES NOT TRANSLATES THIS IMPROVEMENT IN ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AS A
RE-INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS. FROM SATURDAY, WITH A
POLEWARD UPPER DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH, SOME
EPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS (ARPEGE 00Z, AROME
00Z, IFS 00Z) STILL SUGGEST A MODERATE REINTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER,
THE UPPER TROUGH COULD ALSO INTERACT WITH DANILO'S WARM ENVELOPE,
THUS DISTURBING THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE POLEWARD AND POTENTIALLY
COMPROMISE THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM. LASTLY, SOME MODELS LIKE
GFS ALSO FORECAST THE QUICK APPEARANCE OF A STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR.
CONSEQUENTLY, A MODERATE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING DANILO'S
INTENSITY DURING ITS PASSAGE NEAR THE MASCARENES ISLANDS (TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR STORM).
FROM MONDAY, DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (DRY AIR, SHEAR
AND LACK OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL) SHOULD LEAD TO DANILO'S DEFINITIVE
WEAKENING.
THIS WEEKEND DANILO WILL THEREFORE TRACK NEAR THE MASCARENES ISLANDS.
A PROBABLE DETERIORATION OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM
EAST TO WEST, ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF RAINS : FRIDAY / SATURDAY FOR
RODRIGUES AND FROM SUNDAY FOR THE MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION SECTOR.
THE SEVERITY OF THIS DETERIORATION REMAINS TO BE SPECIFIED.=
NNNN
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Re: SIO: DANILO - Tropical Depression

#15 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jan 08, 2021 4:56 am

ZCZC 909
WTIO30 FMEE 080732
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 33/6/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (DANILO)
2.A POSITION 2021/01/08 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 66.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 14 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 445 SW: 370 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/08 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 445 SW: 370 NW: 0
24H: 2021/01/09 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 62.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 250 SW: 390 NW: 55
36H: 2021/01/09 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SW: 390 NW: 55
48H: 2021/01/10 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 59.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SW: 390 NW: 55
60H: 2021/01/10 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 250 SW: 390 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 85 SW: 35 NW: 65
72H: 2021/01/11 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 250 SW: 390 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 120 SW: 55 NW: 65
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/12 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 530 SW: 390 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 165 NW: 75
120H: 2021/01/13 06 UTC: 25.1 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 530 SW: 390 NW: 175
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0-
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, THE CLOUD MASS HAS BROKEN UP AND PRESENTS A
DISTURBED ZONE PATTERN WITHOUT A WELL DEFINED CENTER, WITH A FAIRLY
BROAD AND ELONGATED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE
LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, AS SHOWN IN THE AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE OF
0454Z. THE LAST ASCAT SWATHS OF THIS MORNING REMAIN PARTIAL AND GIVE
VALUES OF THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30KT. IN THESE CONDITIONS THE MEAN WIND
VALUES AT 30KT ARE ESSENTIALLY RELATED TO THE PERSISTENCE OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY FORECAST, DANILO IS TRACKING TOWARDS THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM LOW
TO MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. THIS SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, AND THEN BEYOND THAT, DANILO SHOULD SHIFT ITS
TRAJECTORY FURTHER SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE MASCARENE ISLANDS.
DUE TO THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE HIGHS GEOPOTENTIAL. FROM THE
WEEKEND, DANILO SHOULD THUS BE ORIENTED TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST AND
THIS INFLECTION OF TRAJECTORY SHOULD LEAD DANILO TO PASS VERY CLOSE,
EVEN ON THE ISLANDS OF REUNION AND MAURITIUS. THIS PRESENT FORECAST
IS A CONSENSUS OF THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCES, WHOSE MEMBERS PASSING
SOUTH ARE LESS AND LESS NUMEROUS.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECAST: IN THE SHORT TERM, DANILO IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO ITS
INTENSIFICATION. IN FACT, UNTIL THE END OF THIS WEEKEND, DANILO WILL
ENCOUNTER A MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR ALOFT, COUPLED WITH AN INTRUSION
OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. HOWEVER, AT THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK, DANILO WILL BE ABLE TO BENEFIT FROM A GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE, IN FRONT OF A TROUGH ALOFT, AND FROM A BETTER WET FEED IN
THE LOW LAYER. THIS SCENARIO LEADING TO A TEMPORARY INTENSIFICATION
OF THE SYSTEM IS SUGGESTED BY SOME EPS MEMBERS AND SOME DETERMINISTS.
THE GFS MODEL IS CONSIDERED TOO REACTIVE WITH RESPECT TO THE ANALYSIS
AND MAKES DANILO INTENSIFY TOO QUICKLY (WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN
THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM) BY MAKING IT DIVE FURTHER AND
FASTER TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, DANILO SHOULD
ALSO ENCOUNTER LESS OCEANIC POTENTIAL WITH LESS WARM WATER, WHICH
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ITS WEAKENING AND THUS LEAD TO THE BEGINNING OF
THE DEFINITIVE FILLING OF DANILO.
IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, THIS WEEKEND, DANILO WILL TRACK CLOSE TO THE
MASCARENES. A PROBABLE DEGRADATION OF THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FROM EAST TO WEST, ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF RAIN. FOR
RODRIGUES ISLAND, THE DEGRADATION SHOULD ARRIVE TODAY AND CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY, BUT THE DISTANCE OF DANILO SHOULD LEAVE THE HEAVIEST RAINS
IN THE NORTH. AS REGARDS THE SECTOR MAURITIUS-MEETING, THE TIMING OF
PASSAGE NEAR, OR EVEN ON THESE ISLANDS, WITH NOTABLE DEGRADATION OF
THE METEROLOGICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DONE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. WE
INVITE THE POPULATIONS OF THESE ISLANDS TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE
METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTS THROUGH THEIR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICE.=
NNNN
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Re: SIO: DANILO - Tropical Depression

#16 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jan 08, 2021 1:29 pm

ZCZC 165
WTIO30 FMEE 081240
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/6/20202021
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 6 (DANILO)
2.A POSITION 2021/01/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 35 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 65.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 315 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/09 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 250 SW: 390 NW: 55
24H: 2021/01/09 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 250 SW: 390 NW: 55
36H: 2021/01/10 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SW: 390 NW: 55
48H: 2021/01/10 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 390 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SW: 30 NW: 65
60H: 2021/01/11 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 390 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SW: 30 NW: 65
72H: 2021/01/11 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 390 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 120 SW: 55 NW: 65
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/12 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 250 SW: 390 NW: 55
120H: 2021/01/13 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 250 SW: 390 NW: 55
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=1.5 CI=2.5
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE DANILO CLOUD MASS HAS CONTINUED TO
DISORGANIZE AND PRESENTS A DISTURBED ZONE PATTERN WITHOUT A WELL
DEFINED TRUE CENTER, WITH A FAIRLY BROAD AND ELONGATED
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST LOW LAYER CIRCULATION AS SHOWN IN THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES. THE LOW LAYER CENTER ANALYZED WAS LOCATED AT THE
CENTER OF THE TWO CONVECTIVE AREAS, IN THE CONTINUITY OF THE PREVIOUS
TRAJECTORY (AS SUGGESTED BY THE SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE OF 1137Z). THE
MEAN WIND WAS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT IN THE SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE,
ESSENTIALLY DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY FORECAST, DANILO IS TRACKING SOUTHWEST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM LOW TO MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE
TOWARDS THE MASCARENE ARCHIPELAGO. THIS TRAJECTORY SHOULD LEAD DANILO
TO COME VERY CLOSE TO, OR EVEN OVER THE ISLANDS OF REUNION AND
MAURITIUS. THIS FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCES,
WHOSE MEMBERS TRACKING SOUTH TOGETHER ARE LESS AND LESS NUMEROUS.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECAST: IN THE SHORT TERM, DANILO IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO ITS
INTENSIFICATION. INDEED, UNTIL THE END OF THIS WEEKEND, DANILO WILL
ENCOUNTER A SLIGHT CONSTRAINT ALOFT, ESPECIALLY COUPLED WITH AN
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. HOWEVER, FROM SUNDAY,
DANILO WILL BE ABLE TO BENEFIT FROM A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON
THE POLAR COAST, IN FRONT OF A HIGH ALTITUDE TROUGH, AND A BETTER WET
FEED IN THE LOW LAYER. THIS SCENARIO, WHICH LEADS TO AN UNSUSTAINABLE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM, IS SUGGESTED BY SOME EPS MEMBERS AND
SOME DETERMINISTS MODELS (AROME). THE GFS MODEL PREDICTS AN EARLIER
INTENSIFICATION OF DANILO, BY MAKING IT DIVE FURTHER AND FASTER
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CURRENT
PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED STRUCTURE. FROM WEDNESDAY, DANILO SHOULD ALSO
ENCOUNTER A LOWER OCEAN POTENTIAL WITH LESS WARM WATER, WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ITS WEAKENING AND THUS LEAD TO THE BEGINNING OF THE
DEFINITIVE FILLING OF THE METEOR.
IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, THIS WEEKEND, DANILO WILL TRACK CLOSE TO THE
MASCARENES ARCHIPELAGO. A POSSIBLE DETERIORATION OF THE
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM EAST TO WEST, ESPECIALLY
IN TERMS OF RAIN. FOR THE ISLAND OF RODRIGUES, THE DETERIORATION
SHOULD ARRIVE NEXT NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON SATURDAY, WITH POSSIBLE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THAT CAN EXCEED 50 MM OVER 24 HOURS. AS FOR
THE SECTOR MAURITIUS-MEETING, THE TIMING OF PASSAGE NEAR, OR EVEN ON
THESE ISLANDS, WITH SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE DONE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. WE INVITE THE POPULATIONS OF THESE
ISLANDS TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTS THROUGH
THEIR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.=
NNNN
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Re: SIO: DANILO - Zone Of Disturbed Weather

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 09, 2021 8:52 am

ZCZC 586
WTIO30 FMEE 090054
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/6/20202021
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 6 (DANILO)
2.A POSITION 2021/01/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 64.3 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.0/2.0/W 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/09 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
24H: 2021/01/10 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 55
36H: 2021/01/10 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 55
48H: 2021/01/11 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 35
60H: 2021/01/11 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 35
72H: 2021/01/12 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 55 NW: 55
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/13 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=1.0 CI=2.0
THE STRUCTURE OF DANILO REMAINS VERY POORLY DEFINED WITH AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION AND DECREASING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN EXTREMITIES. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES (AMSR2 AND GPM) SHOW
THAT A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED CENTRE SEEMS TO BE RECONSTITUTING
ITSELF. CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION REMAINS LOW AS IT STILL SEEMS
UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS CENTRE WILL BECOME THE MAIN CENTRE DURING THE
DAY. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY OBJECTIVE ELEMENT, THE INTENSITY IS LEFT
AT 25 KT.
NO CHANGE IN FORECAST: DANILO WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWESTWARDS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE
TOWARDS THE MASCARENES ISLANDS. THIS TRACK SHOULD LEAD DANILO TO PASS
CLOSE TO OR OVER THE MAURITIUS ISLAND AND THEN LA REUNION BETWEEN
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCES
HAS TENDED TO SLOW DOWN THE OVERALL TIMING AND TO TAKE A MORE ZONAL
OPTION AFTER THE PASSAGE CLOSE TO MAURITIUS.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECAST: IN THE SHORT TERM, THE VERY DEGRADED
STATE OF DANIELO'S CIRCULATION AND THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN THE
MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR AN IMMEDIATE
INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, DANILO WILL BE ABLE TO
BENEFIT FROM A GOOD UPPER LEVELS DIVERGENCE POLEWARDS, IN FRONT OF AN
UPPER LEVELS TROUGH AND A POSSIBLE BETTER WET FEED IN THE LOW LAYERS.
THIS SCENARIO, WHICH LEADS TO AN UNSUSTAINABLE INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM UP TO THE MINIMUM TROPICAL STORM STAGE, IS HOWEVER HARDLY
SUGGESTED ANYMORE BY THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE AND MEMBERS OF THE
CENTRAL EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST. ONLY THE AROME/12Z AND UKMO/12Z
MODELS STILL GIVE CREDIT TO THIS HYPOTHESIS. ON THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST, THE INTENSITY FORECAST THEREFORE FAVOURS THE MOST DYNAMIC
SCENARIO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS LOW.
IN THE NIGHT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY, THE UPPER LEVELS DIVERGENCE TO
THE SOUTH DISAPPEARS. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW
LAYERS AND WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE DRY IN THE MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE, THE DEFINITIVE CYCLOLYSIS OF THIS SYSTEM, IF IT DOES NOT
OCCUR BEFORE, SHOULD TAKE PLACE BETWEEN LA REUNION AND MADAGASCAR.
IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, THIS WEEKEND, DANILO WILL THEREFORE PASS CLOSE
TO THE MASCARENES. A DETERIORATION OF THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FROM EAST TO WEST, ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF RAINFALL.
- FOR THE ISLAND OF RODRIGUES, THE DEGRADATION IS DELAYED BUT SHOULD
WIN TODAY AND CONTINUE NEXT NIGHT. NO REALLY REMARKABLE GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED BUT POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THAT COULD
EXCEED 50 MM OVER 24 HOURS.
- AS FAR AS THE MAURITIUS- LA REUNION SECTOR IS CONCERNED, THE TIMING
OF THE PASSAGE CLOSE TO OR EVEN ON THESE ISLANDS HAS BEEN DELAYED AND
SHOULD TAKE PLACE BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING (ARRIVAL IN MAURITIUS) AND
TUESDAY MORNING (AWAY FROM LA REUNION). WE INVITE THE POPULATIONS OF
THESE ISLANDS TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH THEIR
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.=
NNNN
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Re: SIO: DANILO - Remnants

#18 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 09, 2021 8:40 pm

ZCZC 099
WTIO30 FMEE 091818
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 38/6/20202021
1.A REMNANT LOW 6 (DANILO)
2.A POSITION 2021/01/09 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6 S / 62.6 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/10 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
24H: 2021/01/10 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 59.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
36H: 2021/01/11 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
48H: 2021/01/11 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
60H: 2021/01/12 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2021/01/12 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 51.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST 6 HRS, DANILO'S SAT PRESENTATION DID NOT EVOLVE WITH
ONLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TRIGGERING NEAR THE CENTER WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CONVECTION IS STRONGER IN THE
SOUTH-EAST, ALONG THE CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION
AND THE TRADE WINDS. DANILO'S CENTER IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER OMM
BUOY 5601578 WHICH MEASURES 1003HPA. THE ASCAT-B SWATH COVERS A LARGE
PART OF DANILO'S CIRCULATION AND DOES NOT SHOW NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS
ANY MORE.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL LOW-LEVEL RIDGE, DANILO IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD TOWARDS THE
MASCARENES. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING DANILO IN THE NORTHERN VICINITY
OF THE MASCARENES : MONDAY FOR MAURITIUS AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR LA
REUNION. THE LAST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE HAVE ALL SLIGHTLY SHIFTED
NORTHWARD, AWAY FROM THE MASCARENES.
IN THE SHORT TERM, MID-LEVEL DRY AIR PREVENTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, FROM SUNDAY, A BETTER UPPER DIVERGENCE APPEARS
POLEWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDES UPPER TROUGH. MEANWHILE, THE
ENVIRONMENT COULD TEMPORARILY BECOME LESS DRY. HOWEVER, THE MOST
RECENT INTENSITY GUIDANCE DO NOT FORECAST ANY REINTENSIFICATION ANY
MORE, EVEN TEMPORARY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER DIVERGENCE DISAPPEARS. WITHIN THESE
UNCONDUCIVE CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSOLVE BETWEEN LA
REUNION AND MADAGASCAR.
IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, DANILO WILL THEREFORE PASS CLOSE TO THE
MASCARENES THIS WEEK-END. A DETERIORATION OF THE METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM EAST TO WEST, ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
RAINFALL.
- FOR THE ISLAND OF RODRIGUES, THE DEGRADATION SHOULD CONTINUE
TONIGHT. NO REALLY REMARKABLE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BUT POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THAT COULD EXCEED 50 MM OVER 24
HOURS.
- FOR MAURITIUS-LA REUNION, DANILO SHOULD TRACK CLOSE, OR EVEN OVER,
THESE ISLANDS BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT (ARRIVAL IN MAURITIUS) AND TUESDAY
(AWAY FROM LA REUNION). THE POPULATIONS OF THESE ISLANDS ARE INVITERD
TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE WEATHER FORECASTS ISSUED BY THEIR
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES.=
NNNN
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