SPAC: KIMI - Remnants

[cycloneye]

91P INVEST 210116 0000 14.5S 146.5E SHEM 20 1003

[cycloneye]

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
FLASH TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 12:11 pm EST on Sunday 17 January 2021

Headline:
Tropical cyclone Kimi has formed northeast of Cooktown.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Cape Melville to Cardwell, extending inland to Palmerville and Chillagoe, including Cooktown, Port Douglas, Cairns, and Innisfail.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Kimi at 10:00 am AEST:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 45 kilometres of 14.9 degrees South 146.4 degrees East, estimated to be 140 kilometres east northeast of Cooktown and 235 kilometres north northeast of Cairns.

Movement: southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.

Tropical cyclone Kimi has formed in the northwest Coral Sea northeast of Cooktown. The cyclone is expected to move to the southwest and cross the north tropical coast between Cape Flattery and Port Douglas on Monday morning. It may reach category 2 before crossing.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 km/h may develop about coastal and island areas between Cape Flattery and Cairns from early Monday morning as the cyclone approaches.

GALES with gusts to 120km/h may develop about coastal and island areas between Cape Melville and Cardwell from Sunday evening. These GALES may extend inland to Palmerville and Chillagoe on Monday as the cyclone moves inland.

HEAVY RAINFALL is forecast to develop about coastal and adjacent inland areas between Cape Flattery and Cardwell from Sunday afternoon. A Flood Watch is current for this area; refer to that product for more detail.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are likely on Sunday night and Monday as the cyclone approaches, however they are unlikely to exceed the highest tide of the year.

[aspen]

This is escalating rather quickly. I’d say it has a decent shot to become a mid range Cat 1 before landfall, but regardless if it’s 60 kt or 70 kt, impacts will likely remain the same as what has been presented in the official warning.

[cycloneye]

ntensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 20 kilometres of 15.6 degrees South 146.6 degrees East, estimated to be 145 kilometres east of Cooktown and 170 kilometres north northeast of Cairns.

Movement: south southeast at 6 kilometres per hour.

Tropical cyclone Kimi has been moving slowly south-southeast through today, but is expected to turn more to the south-southwest tomorrow.

The slow southward movement has delayed the expected crossing time. The system is currently expected to cross the coast late on Monday between about Port Douglas and Innisfail. There remains considerable uncertaintly with the crossing time and location.

The system may intensify further over the next 24 hours and reach category 2 before landfall.

[cycloneye]

Details of Tropical Cyclone Kimi at 4:00 am AEST:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 20 kilometres of 16.3 degrees South 146.6 degrees East, estimated to be 110 kilometres northeast of Cairns and 330 kilometres north of Townsville.

Movement: south at 7 kilometres per hour.

Tropical cyclone Kimi moved slowly southwards through most of Sunday, but is expected to turn a little more to the south-southwest during today.

The system is most likely to approach, and may cross, the coast late today or early Tuesday between about Innisfail and Lucinda, however there remains considerable uncertainty with the crossing time and location.

The system may intensify further during today and is likely to be at least at least a category 2 system as it approaches the coast.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EdgeStorms/status/1350896286640308224

[cycloneye]

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 17.0 degrees South, 146.6 degrees East , 90 kilometres east of Cairns and 250 kilometres north of Townsville .
Movement: south at 12 kilometres per hour .

Tropical cyclone Kimi continues to move slowly southwards and is likely to get closer to the coast later today. The system may intensify a little further to a category 2 system.

Based on the current forecast track, the cyclone may cross the coast overnight or Tuesday between about Innisfail and Lucinda, however there remains considerable uncertainty with the crossing time and location.

[Cargill]

Kimi is currently forecast to make landfall as a Cat 2 at Cardwell, between Cairns and Townsville.

We've stayed in Cardwell a few times - not a big town, and very flat, exposed, and not hugely above sea level. I trust the 1300 residents have a safe dry place to retreat to.

[cycloneye]

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0727 UTC 18/01/2021
Name: Tropical Cyclone Kimi
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 17.8S
Longitude: 147.0E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [166 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 987 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 5 nm [10 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 70 nm [130 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 18/1200: 18.3S 147.1E: 020 [040]: 055 [100]: 984
+12: 18/1800: 18.5S 147.1E: 035 [065]: 050 [095]: 986
+18: 19/0000: 18.7S 147.2E: 045 [085]: 050 [095]: 986
+24: 19/0600: 18.7S 147.3E: 060 [110]: 045 [085]: 989
+36: 19/1800: 18.3S 147.0E: 080 [145]: 030 [055]: 999
+48: 20/0600: 17.7S 146.6E: 100 [180]: 025 [045]: 1003
+60: 20/1800: 17.0S 146.4E: 120 [220]: 025 [045]: 1003
+72: 21/0600: 16.3S 146.2E: 135 [255]: 025 [045]: 1002
+96: 22/0600: 15.1S 146.3E: 180 [335]: 025 [045]: 1002
+120: 23/0600: 14.9S 147.3E: 270 [500]: 025 [045]: 1003
REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Kimi hasn't shown any improved signs of organisation in the
last 6 to 12 hours. Deep convection has persisted to the southern and western
side of the centre, with the last convective pulse starting to warm up.

Centre has been located on Cairns radar, although it is getting to the edge of
the radar range. Position is estimated as good.

Dvorak analysis is based on 0.85 wrap giving DT 3.5. MET is 3.5 with PAT at 3.5
as well. Intensity held at 55 knots [10-min mean]. CIMSS and NOAA ADT are
measuring T3.5 using an uniform pattern. SATCON indicating 52 knots [1-min].

The environment had remained favourable for development in the past 24 hours,
mainly due to low shear and warm SST. However, there has been a noticeable the
lack of deep moist low level inflow and/or a properly ventilated upper level
outflow. The southern outflow seems to be a little better now due to an
approaching short wave upper trough. However, this is likely to bring increasing
vertical shear over the system, which would be a significant inhibiting factor.


Kimi has been slowly moving south-southeastwards under the influence of a weak
mid-level ridge and due to the approaching upper trough. As shear increases and
vertical structure gets further disturbed, the system is likely to lose will
lose its southerly steering influence and become slow moving.

Future movement of a much weaker system is likely to be back towards the north
due to low level ridging to the south.

[cycloneye]

Last warning.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kimi at 4:00 am AEST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 18.3 degrees South 147.6 degrees East, estimated to be 250 kilometres southeast of Cairns and 135 kilometres northeast of Townsville.

Movement: slow moving.

Cyclone Kimi has weakened into a remnant tropical low off the north Queensland coast.

The system is expected to remain slow-moving well off the coast through much of today, then begin tracking back towards the north-northwest from late this afternoon as a weak tropical low.

A coastal crossing as a tropical cyclone is no longer expected.