SIO: JOSHUA - Remnants

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SIO: JOSHUA - Remnants

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jan 15, 2021 2:40 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 151841
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/7/20202021
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 7
2.A POSITION 2021/01/15 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.9 S / 67.6 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 280 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/16 06 UTC: 12.0 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 175 SW: 335 NW: 30
24H: 2021/01/16 18 UTC: 12.2 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 175 SW: 335 NW: 20
36H: 2021/01/17 06 UTC: 12.5 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 175 SW: 335 NW: 20
48H: 2021/01/17 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 335 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 95
60H: 2021/01/18 06 UTC: 13.2 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 335 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 95
72H: 2021/01/18 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 335 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 100
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/19 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 51.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 335 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 85 NW: 100
120H: 2021/01/20 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 48.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 175 SW: 335 NW: 10
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=1.5.
IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM PRESENTED A SHEARED STRUCTURE, WITH A
CENTER EXPOSED AT THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. ACCORDING TO
DATA FROM CIMMS AT 15UTC THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 25KT. THE LAST ASCAT-B DATA AT 16H40UTC SHOW
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AWAY FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, THE CONVERGENCE OF LOW LAYERS ON THE
EQUATORIAL SIDE WILL IMPROVE. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AXIS OF THE
ALTITUDE RIDGE, THE SHEAR SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN AND THE
ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT.
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, THE EASTERN SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN
AGAIN, BUT THIS WILL BE ATTENUATED BY THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, THE
ALTITUDE CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL LOW TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WHICH
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS AND THE SYSTEM UNTIL MONDAY.
AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD, A THALWEG RISES OVER THE SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR, AND CAUSES A WEAKNESS IN THE ANTICYCLONIC BELT. THE
TRAJECTORY THEN TAKES AN INFLECTION IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION,
CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO LAND ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR.=
NNNN
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Re: SIO: Tropical Depression 7

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 16, 2021 4:49 am

WTIO30 FMEE 160703
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/7/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7
2.A POSITION 2021/01/16 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5 S / 66.3 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 250 NW: 195
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/16 18 UTC: 12.8 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 250 NW: 195
24H: 2021/01/17 06 UTC: 13.0 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SW: 260 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 100
36H: 2021/01/17 18 UTC: 13.4 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 295 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 100
48H: 2021/01/18 06 UTC: 13.9 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 215 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110
60H: 2021/01/18 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 215 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 35
72H: 2021/01/19 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 215 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 35
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/20 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 215 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 35
120H: 2021/01/21 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 46.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=1.5+
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONFIGURATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS CHANGED
LITTLE (SHEAR PATTERN WITH A CENTER LOCATED EAST OF THE MAIN
CONVECTION). ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE TENDED TO WARM UP (DIURNAL
CYCLE), THIS MORNING'S ASCAT DATA SHOWS THAT NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS
HAVE EXTENDED THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH A CENTER,
ALTHOUGH STILL ELONGATED, TENDING TO GAIN IN DEFINITION. BASED ON
THESE ELEMENTS THE SYSTEM IS NOW ANALYZED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, THE LOW LEVELS CONVERGENCE ON THE
EQUATORIAL SIDE WILL IMPROVE. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER LEVELS RIDGE, THE SHEAR SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN AND THE
DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, THE EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN
AGAIN, BUT THIS WILL BE ATTENUATED BY THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, THE UPPER
LEVELS CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID SUBTROPICAL LOW RIDGE WHICH
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES ISLANDS UNTIL MONDAY. AT THE END OF
THIS PERIOD, A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO NEAR THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR,
AND CAUSES A WEAKNESS IN THE ANTICYCLONIC BELT. THE TRACK THEN TAKES
AN INFLECTION IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO
LAND ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT LANDFALL BUT
THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF STRONG WINDS, FLOODS AND STORM SURGE
OVER SOME COASTAL AREAS OF EAST MADAGASCAR MAINLY BETWEEN SAMBAVA TO
THE NORTH AND TAMATAVE TO THE SOUTH.=
NNNN
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Re: SIO: JOSHUA - Tropical Cyclone

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 16, 2021 8:27 am

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Re: SIO: JOSHUA - Tropical Cyclone

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:21 pm

IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:51 am WST on Sunday 17 January 2021

Tropical Cyclone Joshua (Category 1) was located at 8:00 am AWST (6:30 am CCT)
near 17.7S 90.7E,
that is 900 km southwest of Cocos Island and moving west southwest at 15
kilometres per hour.

The cyclone will continue moving towards the southwest and will move outside
the Australian region during Sunday.
It will not affect communities on the Cocos (Keeling) Islands

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3 pm AWST.
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Re: SIO: JOSHUA - Tropical Cyclone

#5 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 18, 2021 7:57 am

ZCZC 268
WTIO30 FMEE 181205
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/8/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (JOSHUA)
2.A POSITION 2021/01/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 86.4 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 45
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/19 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 20 SW: 30 NW: 35
24H: 2021/01/19 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 55
36H: 2021/01/20 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2021/01/20 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2021/01/21 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2021/01/21 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5; CI=3.0-
THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND CLEARLY
AFFECT JOSHUA'S CLOUD PATTERN. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOT
YET VISIBLE BUT REMINAS LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN BORDER OF THE
MAIN CONVECTION. THE 0815Z GMI AND 0747Z AMSR2 MW IMAGES CONFIRMED
THAT THE EROSION OF THE WARM CORE IS UNDER WAY, WITH INTENSE RAINS
ONLY LOCATED WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, JOSHUA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WESTERN EXTREMITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ON THE WESTERN
PART OF THE AUSTRALIAN BASIN. THE RIDGE IS SHIFTING WESTWARD,
IMPOSING A GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD STEERING FLOW. THE GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THIS TRACK, WHICH SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ENSEMBLE DISPERSION REMAINS MODERATE.
JOSHUA IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A GRADUAL DETERIORATION OF ITS
ENVIRONMENT : THE SHEAR ALREADY LOCATED IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL
SHORTLY INCREASE IN THE MID-LEVELS. THUS, THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
ALREADY PRESENT IN THE WESTERN SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
ERODE THE WARM CORE THUS WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN
EVOLVE QUITE RAPIDLY INTO A REMNANT LOW. THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.=
NNNN
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