SIO: FARAJI - Remnants

[cycloneye]

ZCZC 679
WTIO30 FMEE 091257
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/10/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)
2.A POSITION 2021/02/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 84.3 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 280 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 80 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/10 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55
24H: 2021/02/10 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 305 SW: 285 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
36H: 2021/02/11 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 85.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
48H: 2021/02/11 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 75
60H: 2021/02/12 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 75
72H: 2021/02/12 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 65
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/13 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 175 SW: 220 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 65
120H: 2021/02/14 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SW: 195 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 35
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5 CI=6.0
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE OF FARAJI IS TOTALLY COVERED BY THE
ALTITUDE CLOUDS, DUE TO THE MID-SHEAR AS SUGGESTED BY THE CIMMS
ANALYSIS. CONVECTION IS ALWAYS STRONG WITH COLD TOPS WICH ARE
DISORGANIZE AROUND THE SUPPOSED LLCC. IN LACK OF RECENT ASCAT AND
MICROWAVE DATA, THE LOCATION OF THE LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
REMAINS TRICKY.
THE LAST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM. THUS, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 100 KT.
FARAJI IS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
EQUATORIAL RIDGE. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH THE WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM, THE STEERING FLOW GOES DOWN TO A LOWER LEVEL AND FARAJI
IS TAKEN OVER BY THE WESTERN EDGE OF A RIDGE LOCATED FURTHER EAST
WHICH TENDS TO STRENGTHEN, WHICH FROM NEXT WEDNESDAY, TENDS TO SLOW
DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF FARAJI. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, FARAJI
TRACKS, UNDER THE CONTROL OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. DUE
THE CLOSE LINK BETWEEN THE RATE OF THE WEAKENING AND THE TRAJECTORY,
THE PREDICTION IS PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN, ON THE EXACT CHRONOLOGY OF
THE TURN. THIS RESULTS IN A STRONG DISPERSION WITHIN THE NUMERICAL
MODELS.
HOWEVER, THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVOURS THE OPTION OF A FAIRLY WIDE
TURN COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY RAPID WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THIS FORECAST SEEMS TO BE GRADUALLY GATHERING MORE CONSENSUS.
MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY PRESENT. IT SHOULD FAVOR AN
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN MID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERE, WHICH CONFIRMS THE
DECLINE PHASE CURRENTLY OBSERVED, DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG
OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THEREAFTER, THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME RATHER UNCONDUCIVE: A STRONG UPPER CONSTRAINT
IN THE WESTERN SECTOR COMBINED WITH AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN THE
MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE NEAR THE CENTER ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SEMICIRCLES. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT FARAJI WILL
STABILIZE AT THE RANK OF A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR THE INHABITED
LANDS AT THE MOMENT.=
NNNN

[cycloneye]

ZCZC 443
WTIO30 FMEE 100020
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/10/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)
2.A POSITION 2021/02/10 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 84.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SW: 230 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 75 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SW: 90 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/10 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 85.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 305 SW: 285 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55
24H: 2021/02/11 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 85.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55
36H: 2021/02/11 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
48H: 2021/02/12 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
60H: 2021/02/12 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 65
72H: 2021/02/13 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 65
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/14 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 35
120H: 2021/02/15 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 35
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+;CI=5.5-
LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF CLOUD PATTERN OVER THE LAST 6 HRS, WITH A
CDO ASSOCIATED TO COLD CLOUD TOPS, WITHIN WHICH A WARM SPOT
TEMPORARILY APPEARS. THE 2246Z SSMIS REVEALS THAT THE CONVECTION
INNER RING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A CURVED BAND WRAPPING 1.5 AROUND THE
CENTER. A TILT IS STILL OBSERVED BETWEEN THE 37GHZ AND 89GHZ IMAGES.
THE RMSC INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ANALYSIS, IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.
FARAJI CURRENTLY TRACKS SOUTH-EASTWARDS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST. FARAJI SHOULD MAKE A GRADUAL
U-TURN OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS, AS THE STEERING FLOW COMES DOWN TO LOWER
LEVELS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PROGRESSIVELY TAKES OVER. THE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE HIGH ON THIS SCENARIO, BETWEEN A TIGHT TURN
SUGGESTED BY IFS AND A WIDER TURN FORECASTED BY UKMO AND GFS. THE
TIGHT LINK BETWEEN THE WEAKENING SPEED AND THE TRACK PARTLY EXPLAINS
THESE DIFFERENCES. SUNDAY, A NORTHWESTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED AS THE
RIDGE SHOULD PIVOT SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN GUIDANCES.
FARAJI CURRENTLY UNDERGOES A MODERATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR THAT
AFFECTS THE VERTICALITY OF THE VORTEX AND BRINGS DRY AIR IN THE
VICINITY OF THE INNER CORE. THE MID-SHEAR SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY VANISH
FROM FRIDAY BUT DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO ALREADY BE INSTALLED OVER THE
CENTER AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FARAJI
ALSO TRACKS ON THE EASTERN BORDER OF A MODERATE UPPER SHEAR AREA ON
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, THAT MAY AFFECT IT TEMPORARILY. THUS, THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT TO SUGGEST A GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM UNTIL SATURDAY.
FROM SUNDAY/MONDAY, WITH AN INCREASE IN THE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
MOISTER MID-LEVELS, A REINTENSIFICATION BEGINS TO BE SUGGESTED BY
SOME MODELS.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY PARTICULAR THREAT FOR THE INHABITED
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=
NNNN

[somethingfunny]

Are there any satellite images of this cyclone?

[aspen]

Faraji is attempting to rebuild its inner core, with decent success. There’s an eyewall on 2 hour old microwave imagery, and an eye is popping out on IR.

[cycloneye]

ZCZC 232
WTIO30 FMEE 101353
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/10/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)
2.A POSITION 2021/02/10 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 85.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 80 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/11 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SW: 250 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
24H: 2021/02/11 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 35
36H: 2021/02/12 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 65
48H: 2021/02/12 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 35
60H: 2021/02/13 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 30 NW: 35
72H: 2021/02/13 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 30 SW: 20 NW: 35
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/14 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55
120H: 2021/02/15 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 175 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 35
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5;CI=5.5-
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, FARAJI'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED AGAIN,
WITH THE EYE DISAPPEARING ON INFRARED IMAGES, MASKED BY INTENSE
CONVECTIVE BURSTS IN THE SOUTH EYE WALL. THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGES
SHOW A STILL INTENSE AND COMPACT CORE, BUT WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
ASYMMETRY, WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IN ADDITION, A
CIRRUS ARC SEEMS VISIBLE ON INFRARED IMAGERY IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THESE ELEMENTS ARE EVIDENCE OF THE INCREASING
DEEP SHEAR IN FARAJI'S ENVIRONMENT.
THE CDO DVORAK ANALYSIS GIVES A DT CLOSE TO 4.5 OVER THE LAST HOURS
BUT THE STILL INTENSE CORE AND THE INERTIA OF THE SYSTEM SUGGESTS AN
INTENSITY SIMILAR TO 06UTC, I.E. 85KT.
FARAJI IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE SOUTH FACE OF
THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS NORTHEAST AND IS STARTING A
PROGRESSIVE WESTWARD U-TURN WHICH WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, AS THE STEERING FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TAKES OVER THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE LARGE ON THE TIMING AND THE CURVATURE
RADIUS OF THIS U-TURN. THE CLOSE LINK BETWEEN THE RATE OF WEAKENING
AND THE TRACK PARTLY EXPLAINS THE DIFFERENCES OBSERVED BETWEEN THE
DIFFERENT GUIDANCES.
ON SUNDAY, A WEST/NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED WHILE
THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN MODELS.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE MODERATE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-SHEAR WILL
STRENGTHEN AND INCREASINGLY AFFECT THE STRUCTURE OF THE VORTEX AND
BRING DRY AIR NEAR THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN
ON FRIDAY BUT DRY AIR SHOULD ALREADY SURROUND THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM AND REMAIN THERE AFTERWARDS. FARAJI ALSO REMAINS ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF AN ALTITUDE SHEAR ZONE OVER THE PERIOD, WHICH COULD
TEMPORARILY AFFECT IT. THUS, THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM UNTIL SUNDAY, PROBABLY TO THE STAGE
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, WITH AN INCREASE IN DIVERGENCE, MOISTER AT
MID-LEVELS AND A STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EQUATORWARD,
SOME REINTENSIFICATION SEEMS POSSIBLE. AS A CONSEQUENCE, THE RSMC
FORECAST SHOWS AN INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM STAGE ON MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY PARTICULAR THREAT FOR THE INHABITED
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=
NNNN

[aspen]

Yesterday, the models dropped Faraji’s recovery, but today the GFS and CMC are showing it again. It’s still quite a possibility that we could be watching this storm trek across the SIO for another week.

Meanwhile, the eye is trying to make a comeback.

[cycloneye]

ZCZC 265
WTIO30 FMEE 110641
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/10/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)
2.A POSITION 2021/02/11 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 84.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 370 SW: 480 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 40 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/11 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35
24H: 2021/02/12 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35
36H: 2021/02/12 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 35
48H: 2021/02/13 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35
60H: 2021/02/13 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 55
72H: 2021/02/14 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/15 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 240 SW: 285 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 45
120H: 2021/02/16 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 270 SW: 350 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 85
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0-;CI=5.0
FARAJI CONTINUES TO HOLD UP WELL, BEARING AN EYE PATTERN AT TIMES
WELL DEFINED AND CONVECTION WHICH REMAINS INTENSE. THE 3-HOUR
AVERAGED DT IS 5.0- BETWEEN 03 AND 06Z. ALL OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE IS BETWEEN 80 AND 90 KT. THE FINAL ESTIMATE IS ESTIMATED AT
80 KT.
FARAJI HAS FINISHED ITS WESTWARD TURN AND CONTINUES ON A
SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK GUIDED BY THE RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND
SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND ON THE EDGE A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
LOCATED FURTHER WEST.
IN THE COMING DAYS, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE STEERING FLOW
GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE LOWER LAYERS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH TAKES OVER THE STEERING FLOW, THUS LEADING TO A MORE WESTERLY
ORIENTATION. ON SUNDAY, A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK IS
EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOUTHWESTWARD OF THE SYSTEM. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN MODELS DESPITE A
MARKED DISPERSION.
FARAJI CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH WHERE A MORE PRONOUNCED DEEP
SHEAR AND MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR IS PREVALENT. THIS WILL INCREASINGLY
AFFECT THE STRUCTURE OF THE VORTEX BY BRINGING DRY AIR CLOSE TO THE
CORE OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS WEAKEN FARAJI MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS
SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN ON FRIDAY BUT THE DRY AIR SHOULD ALREADY SURROUND
THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM AND REMAIN THERE AFTERWARDS. THE HIGHER
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES. THUS, THE AVAILABLE MODELS PROPOSE A PROGRESSIVE WEAKENING
OF THE SYSTEM UNTIL SUNDAY, POTENTIALLY TO A VERY LOW STAGE. FROM
MONDAY ONWARDS, WITH AN INCREASE IN DIVERGENCE, LESS DRY AIR AND A
STRENGTHENING OF THE CONVERGENCE OF THE EQUATORIAL SURFACE, A
REINTENSIFICATION REMAINS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, GUIDANCES ARE VERY
SCATTERED AND FLUCTUATE FROM ONE RUN TO THE OTHER. THIS
REINTENSIFICATION THEREFORE STILL APPEARS VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THE
MOMENT.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR INHABITED AREAS
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=
NNNN

[cycloneye]

ZCZC 262
WTIO30 FMEE 121245
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/10/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI)
2.A POSITION 2021/02/12 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 81.4 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 14 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/13 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35
24H: 2021/02/13 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 65
36H: 2021/02/14 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 65
48H: 2021/02/14 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 55
60H: 2021/02/15 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 30 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 55
72H: 2021/02/15 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 20 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 55
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/16 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
120H: 2021/02/17 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0+;CI=4.0
FARAJI'S SHEAR PATTERN HAS BEEN CONFIRMED FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE
NORTHERLY UPPER WIND SHEAR BRINGS OUT THE LOW LAYER CIRCULATION
CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. THE 1056Z SSMIS
IMAGE ALSO SUGGESTS THIS CLEAR WEAKENING BY SHOWING A WEAK INNER
STRUCTURE. IT ALLOWS TO LOCATE THE LLCC WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
GIVEN THESE ANALYSIS AND ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE DATA (SATCON, ADT, JTWC), FARAJI'S INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
55 KT.
WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE STEERING FLOW LOWERED INTO THE
LOW LAYERS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS CURRENTLY
REGAINING CONTROL OF THE TRACK INDUCING A GENERAL WESTERLY
ORIENTATION. ON SUNDAY, A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN NUMERICAL
MODELS, WHOSE DISPERSION IS LOWER.
FARAJI KEEPS UNDERGOING A DEEP NORTHWESTERN SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR, WHICH IS WEAKENING ITS STRUCTURE. THE DRY AIR
REMAINS WELL PRESENT OVER THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING A FORECAST OF STRONG
WEAKENING. THE MAIN GUIDANCES GIVE LESS AND LESS CREDIT TO THE
HYPOTHESIS OF A REINTENSIFICATION OF FARAJI.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR THE INHABITED
LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=
NNNN

[cycloneye]

ZCZC 683
WTIO30 FMEE 130028
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/10/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI)
2.A POSITION 2021/02/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 80.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/13 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 65
24H: 2021/02/14 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 55
36H: 2021/02/14 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
48H: 2021/02/15 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
60H: 2021/02/15 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
72H: 2021/02/16 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5+ CI=3.5-
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, FARAJI CLOUD PATTERN DID NOT EVOLVE A LOT.
IT NOW DISPLAYS A MORE CLASSICAL SHEAR PATTERN WITH THE CENTER CLOSE
TO THE BORDER OF THE CDO. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY 2011Z AMSR2 SWATH.
INTENSITY IS DOWNGRADED TO 45KT IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE STEERING FLOW LOWERED INTO THE
LOW LAYERS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS CURRENTLY
REGAINING CONTROL OF THE TRACK INDUCING A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY
ORIENTATION. ON SUNDAY, A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN NUMERICAL
MODELS, WHOSE DISPERSION IS LOWER.
FARAJI KEEPS UNDERGOING A DEEP NORTHWESTERN SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR, WHICH IS WEAKENING ITS STRUCTURE. THE DRY AIR
REMAINS WELL PRESENT OVER THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING A FORECAST OF SWIFT
WEAKENING. THE MAIN GUIDANCES GIVE LESS AND LESS CREDIT TO THE
HYPOTHESIS OF A REINTENSIFICATION OF FARAJI. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE WITH NO MONSOON FEEDING AND A WEAK POLAR
CONVERGENCE AT LONG RANGE.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR THE INHABITED
LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=
NNNN

[cycloneye]

ZCZC 709
WTIO30 FMEE 131242
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/10/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI)
2.A POSITION 2021/02/13 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 79.9 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/14 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 55
24H: 2021/02/14 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 55
36H: 2021/02/15 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2021/02/15 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
60H: 2021/02/16 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
72H: 2021/02/16 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, FARAJI'S SHEARED PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE
OBVIOUS, WITH THE MAXIMUM OF CONVECTION BECOMING INCREASINGLY
DETACHED TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF A SURFACE CENTER WHICH IS MOVING
AWAY FROM THE CONVECTIVE AREA. THIS TILT BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
AND THE MID-TROPOSPHERE CONVECTIVE CORE IS VISIBLE ON CLASSICAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ALSO CONFIRMED BY THE MICROWAVE IMAGES AMSR2 OF
0822Z AND SSM/I OF 1029Z. THE SATCON ANALYSIS IS ALSO WEAKER COMPARED
TO THIS MORNING. WITH A DT DECREASING TO 2.5+, ALL THESE ELEMENTS
CONFIRM AN INTENSITY REDUCED TO 35 KT AT 1200Z.
WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE STEERING FLOW HAS MOVED DOWN TO
THE LOW TROPOSPHERE AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH INDUCES A
WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
EVEN IF THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE, THE INTRUSION
OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE IS IMPORTANT ENOUGH TO WEAKEN
FARAJI. ACCORDING TO MOST MODELS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (DRY AIR IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE, LACK OF LOW LEVEL INFLOW ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE,
INSUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ON THE POLAR SIDE), WHICH SHOULD LEAD FARAJI
TO A VERY WEAK STATE BY NEXT TUESDAY.
DUE TO ITS LOW INTENSITY, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT A CYCLONIC
RISK FOR THE INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. HOWEVER, AS ITS
TRACK BRINGS IT CLOSER TO THE MASCARENES, A DEGRADATION OF WEATHER
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE.
THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN ABOUT FARAJI.=
NNNN