SIO: FARAJI - Remnants

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Nancy Smar
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1081
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Severe Tropical Storm

#21 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Feb 06, 2021 9:58 am

19S FARAJI 210206 1200 14.3S 79.8E SHEM 70 979

TPXS10 PGTW 061453
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI)
B. 06/1415Z
C. 14.64S
D. 79.69E
E. FIVE/GOES-IO
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.1 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 4.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
06/1043Z 14.18S 79.83E SSMI
06/1318Z 14.33S 79.73E SSMS

YOUNG
0 likes   

User avatar
Nancy Smar
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1081
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Severe Tropical Storm

#22 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Feb 06, 2021 9:59 am

WTIO20 FMEE 061219
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 06/02/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI) 981 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 79.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 110 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/07 AT 00 UTC:
14.8 S / 79.9 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/07 AT 12 UTC:
14.9 S / 80.1 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=
0 likes   

User avatar
Nancy Smar
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1081
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Severe Tropical Storm

#23 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Feb 06, 2021 9:59 am

WTIO30 FMEE 061236
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/10/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 79.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/07 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2021/02/07 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2021/02/08 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/02/08 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 285 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2021/02/09 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/02/09 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 285 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/10 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 35

120H: 2021/02/11 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 84.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 65 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+


OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED FURTHER, WITH
COOLER DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN A WELL-DEFINED CDO.
THE ONGOING STRENGTHENING OF THE INNER CORE IS CONFIRMED BY THE 89HZ
IMAGE OF THE 1041Z SSMI, WHERE A CLOSED EYE IS NOTICED. BUT THIS EYE
DOES NOT APPEAR ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY.
THIS STRUCTURE AND THE GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUGGEST THAT
FARAJI COULD EXPERIENCE A PHASE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY FORECAST, FARAJI REMAINS UNDER THE OPPOSITE
INFLUENCE OF TWO MAIN RIDGES: THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE
IMMEDIATE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.UNDER THESE CONTRADICTORY INFLUENCES,
THE TRAJECTORY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY ERRATIC AND SLOW IN A GENERAL
SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION, DURING THE NEXT 12/24 HOURS,
UNDER THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE PRESENT IN THE 500/400HPA IN
THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM (DUE TO THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM).
THEREAFTER, THE ISOLATION OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF
FARAJI, COMBINED WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND
THE ERASING OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST, SHOULD PUSH IT MORE SHARPLY
EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE RIDGE
BECOMES STRONGER IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, AND FARADJI'S TRAJECTORY
TRACKS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY WAY. THESE MULTIPLE INFLUENCES REMAIN
DIFFICULT TO MANAGE FOR THE NUMERICAL MODELS, WHICH LEADS TO A STRONG
DISPERSION REFLECTING A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON FARAJI'S POSITION FROM
MONDAY.

FARAJI LIES BELOW THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH ALTITUDE SLIDING
SOUTHWARDS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW IT TO BENEFIT FROM A GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE WHILE ESCAPING SHEARING. ON WATERS WITH HIGH ENERGY
POTENTIAL, FARAJI SHOULD EXPERIENCE A RELATIVELY RAPID
INTENSIFICATION PHASE OVER THE WEEKEND. FROM MONDAY, A TROUGH IS
MOVING NEXT THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST, REVEALING A SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR ALOFT. COMBINED WITH DRY AIR, THIS CONSTRAINT SHOULD STRONGLY
SLOW DOWN THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AND EVEN STOP IT FROM
TUESDAY ONWARDS. ON TUESDAY EVENING, THE UPPER SHEAR INCREASES AND
SHOULD WEAKEN THE METEOR MORE EFFECTIVELY. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GLOBAL SCENARIO. SEVERAL
GUIDANCES NOW SUGGESTING A GOOD PROBABILITY OF REACHING THE RANK OF
AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY THREAT FOR INHABITED LANDS.=
0 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Severe Tropical Storm

#24 Postby aspen » Sat Feb 06, 2021 10:25 am

After what seemed to be a bit of an EWRC/eyewall meld, there is now a solid eyewall ready for intensification.
Image
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1966
Age: 20
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Severe Tropical Storm

#25 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Feb 06, 2021 4:26 pm

Eye has shown on visible imagery now.
0 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Severe Tropical Storm

#26 Postby aspen » Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:24 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Eye has shown on visible imagery now.

It’s really starting to take off now. Eye temps are almost positive, there’s a huge band of <-75C convection trying to fully wrap around the core (I think there might be a little bit of shear/dry air), and ADT is up to 100 kt.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1966
Age: 20
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Severe Tropical Storm

#27 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:27 pm

I would put the storm at 110 knots and rapidly intensifying. Winds will lag behind satellite appearance otherwise I would place it at 120 knots. Powerful fish storm.
0 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8897
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Severe Tropical Storm & Rapidly Intensifying

#28 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:59 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:I would put the storm at 110 knots and rapidly intensifying. Winds will lag behind satellite appearance otherwise I would place it at 120 knots. Powerful fish storm.


Look at Faraji on IR on Windy.com! :eek:
Measured at 0°C on Windy.com as well
Image
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138892
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Tropical Cyclone

#29 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 06, 2021 8:30 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 070025
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/10/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)
2.A POSITION 2021/02/07 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 79.6 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/07 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 250 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
24H: 2021/02/08 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
36H: 2021/02/08 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
48H: 2021/02/09 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 270 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
60H: 2021/02/09 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
72H: 2021/02/10 00 UTC: 15.3 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/11 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 75
120H: 2021/02/12 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING
UP
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 75
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE INITIATION WAS CONFIRMED, WITH A
CONVECTIVE RING WITH FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURE OF CLOUD TOPS. IN THIS
CONFIGURATION, A DVORAK ANALYSIS OF A SYSTEM IN EYE IS QUITE
FLUCTUATING BUT CAN BE DONE AT 5.5-. A PHASE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
THUS CONCERNS FARAJI. THIS STILL LEAVES FARAJI AT THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE, BUT NOT FOR LONG. MAXIMUM WINDS CAN BE ESTIMATED AT
85KT.
IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO
FADE AWAY WHICH WILL ALLOW A START OF EASTWARD MOVEMENT IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THESE CONTRADICTORY
INFLUENCES, FARAJI'S TRACK IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE EASTERLY TRACK
AND ACCELERATE. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, A RIDGE IS AGAIN
STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE SYSTEM, AS IS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH
IS GRADUALLY REGAINING THE UPPER HAND OVER THE GUIDING FLOW. UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THESE TWO CENTERS, FARAJI SHOULD MAKE A WESTWARD
TURN IN RELATION TO ITS WEAKENING. THESE MULTIPLE INFLUENCES REMAIN
DIFFICULT TO MANAGE FOR THE MODELS, WHICH GENERATES A STRONG
DISPERSION REFLECTING A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON FARAJI'S TRACK FROM
MONDAY. THE DIVERGENCE OF THE MODELS IS RATHER ON THE SPEED OF
DISPLACEMENT AND THE CHRONOLOGY OF THE WESTWARD TURN, DURING THE
RESUMPTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE WEAKENED.
FARAJI REMAINS UNDER THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE OF ALTITUDE WHICH ALLOWS
HIM TO BENEFIT FROM A GOOD DIVERGENCE OF ALTITUDE WHILE ESCAPING THE
WIND SHEAR. ON WATERS WITH HIGH ENERGY POTENTIAL, FARAJI SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE A PHASE OF RELATIVELY RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STARTING MONDAY, A TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST, SHOWING SOUTHWESTERN SHEAR IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE. ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR, THIS STRESS SHOULD STOP THE
INTENSIFICATION FROM MONDAY AND THEN WEAKEN THE SYSTEM MORE STRONGLY
ON TUESDAY. THE AVAILABLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
INTENSITY CHRONOLOGY (CONTRARY TO THE TRACK DIVERGENCE), SEVERAL
SUGGESTING NOW A GOOD PROBABILITY TO REACH THE STAGE OF INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR INHABITED LANDS.=
NNNN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1966
Age: 20
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Tropical Cyclone

#30 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Feb 06, 2021 8:30 pm

Wow
0 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4498
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Tropical Cyclone

#31 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Feb 06, 2021 8:53 pm

Whoa I don't look for one day and it's already up to 100 kts... First biggie since Yasa in the SHEM...
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8897
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Tropical Cyclone

#32 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Feb 06, 2021 9:21 pm

Weather Dude wrote:Whoa I don't look for one day and it's already up to 100 kts... First biggie since Yasa in the SHEM...

Force 13 Video Update on Faraji (They did not expect this storm to become a CAT 3 so quickly)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZsJwSr6qLs4
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Tropical Cyclone

#33 Postby aspen » Sat Feb 06, 2021 10:04 pm

Weather Dude wrote:Whoa I don't look for one day and it's already up to 100 kts... First biggie since Yasa in the SHEM...

I’d say it’s probably 105-115 kt by now. ADT has shot up all the way to T#6.0, with raws of 6.8, and the eye is getting to the positive teens.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4498
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Tropical Cyclone

#34 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Feb 06, 2021 10:40 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:Whoa I don't look for one day and it's already up to 100 kts... First biggie since Yasa in the SHEM...

Force 13 Video Update on Faraji (They did not expect this storm to become a CAT 3 so quickly)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZsJwSr6qLs4

No offense to them but I'm really not much of a force 13 fan. Sometimes their numbers are a bit... Off
3 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138892
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Intense Tropical Cyclone

#35 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 07, 2021 4:51 am

105 kts.

ZCZC 599
WTIO30 FMEE 070701
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/10/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)
2.A POSITION 2021/02/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8 S / 79.7 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 2.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 939 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/07 18 UTC: 14.9 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 240 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
24H: 2021/02/08 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
36H: 2021/02/08 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
48H: 2021/02/09 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
60H: 2021/02/09 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55
72H: 2021/02/10 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 84.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/11 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 100
120H: 2021/02/12 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 65
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.5-
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, FARAJI EYE GOT CLEARER IN CLASSICAL IMAGES.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS ARE AROUND 6.5 FOR A FEW HOURS. THE
MICROWAVE DATA CONFIRM THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE EYEWALL (2325Z SSMIS).
A SMAP SWATH (0033Z) INDICATES MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 88KT. INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS THEREFORE REACHED AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS, INTENSITY IS SET TO 105KT.
IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO
FADE AWAY WHICH WILL ALLOW A START OF EASTWARD MOVEMENT IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THESE CONTRADICTORY
INFLUENCES, FARAJI'S TRACK IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION AND ACCELERATE. AT LONGER RANGE, A RIDGE IS AGAIN
STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL HELP THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, GRADUALLY TAKING OVER THE STEERING FLOW. UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THESE TWO CENTERS, FARAJI SHOULD MAKE A WESTWARD TURN SIMULTANEOUS
TO ITS WEAKENING. THESE MULTIPLE INFLUENCES GENERATE A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTIES AND A STRONG SPREAD AMONG THE GUIDANCE EVEN IF IT IS
DECREASING. SPEED MOTION IS ONE OF THE MOST DIVERGENT PARAMETERS IN
THE LAST RUNS.
FARAJI REMAINS UNDER THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE OF ALTITUDE WHICH ALLOWS
HIM TO BENEFIT FROM A GOOD DIVERGENCE OF ALTITUDE WHILE ESCAPING THE
WIND SHEAR. DESPITE ITS PRESENCE OVER HIGH POTENTIAL WATERS, FARAJI
SLOW MOTION PUTS IT UNDER RISK OF COOLING THE WATERS BENEATH. IT THE
FARAJI STARTS MOVING AGAIN, IT SHOULD ESCAPE THE WEAKENING FORECAST
AT SHORT RANGE. AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
STARTING MONDAY, A TROUGH APPROACHING THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A SOUTHWESTERN SHEAR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE.
ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR, THIS STRESS SHOULD STOP THE INTENSIFICATION
AND THEN WEAKEN THE SYSTEM MORE STRONGLY ON TUESDAY. THE AVAILABLE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS CHRONOLOGY.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR INHABITED LANDS.=
NNNN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138892
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Intense Tropical Cyclone

#36 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 07, 2021 6:40 am

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138892
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Intense Tropical Cyclone

#37 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 07, 2021 11:43 am

ZCZC 599
WTIO30 FMEE 070701
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/10/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)
2.A POSITION 2021/02/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8 S / 79.7 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 2.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 939 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/07 18 UTC: 14.9 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 240 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
24H: 2021/02/08 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
36H: 2021/02/08 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
48H: 2021/02/09 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
60H: 2021/02/09 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55
72H: 2021/02/10 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 84.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/11 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 100
120H: 2021/02/12 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 65
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.5-
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, FARAJI EYE GOT CLEARER IN CLASSICAL IMAGES.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS ARE AROUND 6.5 FOR A FEW HOURS. THE
MICROWAVE DATA CONFIRM THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE EYEWALL (2325Z SSMIS).
A SMAP SWATH (0033Z) INDICATES MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 88KT. INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS THEREFORE REACHED AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS, INTENSITY IS SET TO 105KT.
IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO
FADE AWAY WHICH WILL ALLOW A START OF EASTWARD MOVEMENT IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THESE CONTRADICTORY
INFLUENCES, FARAJI'S TRACK IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION AND ACCELERATE. AT LONGER RANGE, A RIDGE IS AGAIN
STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL HELP THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, GRADUALLY TAKING OVER THE STEERING FLOW. UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THESE TWO CENTERS, FARAJI SHOULD MAKE A WESTWARD TURN SIMULTANEOUS
TO ITS WEAKENING. THESE MULTIPLE INFLUENCES GENERATE A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTIES AND A STRONG SPREAD AMONG THE GUIDANCE EVEN IF IT IS
DECREASING. SPEED MOTION IS ONE OF THE MOST DIVERGENT PARAMETERS IN
THE LAST RUNS.
FARAJI REMAINS UNDER THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE OF ALTITUDE WHICH ALLOWS
HIM TO BENEFIT FROM A GOOD DIVERGENCE OF ALTITUDE WHILE ESCAPING THE
WIND SHEAR. DESPITE ITS PRESENCE OVER HIGH POTENTIAL WATERS, FARAJI
SLOW MOTION PUTS IT UNDER RISK OF COOLING THE WATERS BENEATH. IT THE
FARAJI STARTS MOVING AGAIN, IT SHOULD ESCAPE THE WEAKENING FORECAST
AT SHORT RANGE. AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
STARTING MONDAY, A TROUGH APPROACHING THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A SOUTHWESTERN SHEAR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE.
ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR, THIS STRESS SHOULD STOP THE INTENSIFICATION
AND THEN WEAKEN THE SYSTEM MORE STRONGLY ON TUESDAY. THE AVAILABLE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS CHRONOLOGY.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR INHABITED LANDS.=
NNNN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138892
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Intense Tropical Cyclone

#38 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 07, 2021 3:07 pm

ZCZC 244
WTIO30 FMEE 071830
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/10/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)
2.A POSITION 2021/02/07 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 80.3 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/08 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
24H: 2021/02/08 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
36H: 2021/02/09 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
48H: 2021/02/09 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
60H: 2021/02/10 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 85.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
72H: 2021/02/10 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/11 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 85.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 195 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 45
120H: 2021/02/12 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING
UP
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 30 SW: 75 NW: 85
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5 CI=6.0
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE RING AROUND FARAJI EYE HAS MOSTLY
CONTINUED TO WARM UP PROBABLY IN RELATION WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE
OVERSEA BUT ALSO MAY BE IN RELATION WITH THE COOLING OF THE WATERS
BENEATH. SINCE THE LAST FEW HOURS THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO COOL DOWN
AGAIN
SINCE A FEW HOURS, THE MORE SUSTAINED EASTWARD MOTION SEEMS TO BE
ALSO CONFIRMED . IN AGREEMENT WITH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS, INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 100KT.
IN TERMS OF TRACK, FARAJI IS MOVING EASTWARD, UNER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AND THE LEVEL OF THE STEERING FLOW
GOING DOWN, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT SOUTH. GIVEN THE
TIGHT LINK BETWEEN THE RATE OF DECAY AND THE TRACK, THE FORECAST IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IT IS SHOWN BY STRONG SPREAD AMONG THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE. CURRENT FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE MEANS.
FARAJI REMAINS UNDER THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE OF ALTITUDE WHICH ALLOWS
HIM TO BENEFIT FROM A GOOD DIVERGENCE OF ALTITUDE WHILE ESCAPING THE
WIND SHEAR. DESPITE ITS PRESENCE OVER HIGH POTENTIAL WATERS, FARAJI
SLOW MOTION PUTS IT UNDER RISK OF COOLING THE WATERS BENEATH. IF
FARAJI CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY, IT SHOULD ESCAPE THIS WEAKENING.
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. STARTING MONDAY, A
TROUGH APPROACHING THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST, IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE A SOUTHWESTERN SHEAR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. ASSOCIATED WITH
DRY AIR, THIS STRESS SHOULD STOP THE INTENSIFICATION AND THEN WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM MORE STRONGLY ON TUESDAY. THE AVAILABLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS CHRONOLOGY.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR INHABITED LANDS.=
NNNN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138892
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Intense Tropical Cyclone

#39 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 07, 2021 8:46 pm

Image
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138892
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Intense Tropical Cyclone

#40 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 07, 2021 10:28 pm

ZCZC 861
WTIO30 FMEE 080018
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/10/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)
2.A POSITION 2021/02/08 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3 S / 80.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 946 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/08 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
24H: 2021/02/09 00 UTC: 14.4 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
36H: 2021/02/09 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 84.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
48H: 2021/02/10 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 85.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
60H: 2021/02/10 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 86.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 75
72H: 2021/02/11 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 86.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 75
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/12 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
120H: 2021/02/13 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING
UP
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 100
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0-.
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE RING AROUND FARAJI'S EYE HAS
COOLED DOWN AGAIN, BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE EYE HAS ENLARGED. THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WAS THUS MAINTAINED. THE SYSTEM BEGAN TO
ACCELERATE IN A GENERAL EASTERLY DIRECTION.
IN TERMS OF TRACK, FARAJI IS MOVING EASTWARD, UNER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AND THE LEVEL OF THE STEERING FLOW
GOING DOWN, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT SOUTH. GIVEN THE
TIGHT LINK BETWEEN THE RATE OF DECAY AND THE TRACK, THE FORECAST IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IT IS SHOWN BY STRONG SPREAD AMONG THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE. CURRENT FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE MEANS.
FARAJI REMAINS UNDER THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE OF ALTITUDE WHICH ALLOWS
HIM TO BENEFIT FROM A GOOD DIVERGENCE OF ALTITUDE WHILE ESCAPING THE
WIND SHEAR. DESPITE ITS PRESENCE OVER HIGH POTENTIAL WATERS, FARAJI
SLOW MOTION PUTS IT UNDER RISK OF COOLING THE WATERS BENEATH. IF
FARAJI CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY, IT SHOULD ESCAPE THIS WEAKENING.
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. STARTING MONDAY, A
TROUGH APPROACHING THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST, IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE A SOUTHWESTERN SHEAR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. ASSOCIATED WITH
DRY AIR, THIS STRESS SHOULD STOP THE INTENSIFICATION AND THEN WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM MORE STRONGLY ON TUESDAY. THE AVAILABLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS CHRONOLOGY.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR INHABITED LANDS.=
NNNN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “2021”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 17 guests