SIO: FARAJI - Remnants

[mrbagyo]

[cycloneye]

WTIO30 FMEE 080641
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/10/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)
2.A POSITION 2021/02/08 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3 S / 81.3 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 90 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 95
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/08 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
24H: 2021/02/09 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
36H: 2021/02/09 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 285 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
48H: 2021/02/10 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 85.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 305 SW: 260 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
60H: 2021/02/10 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 86.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
72H: 2021/02/11 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 285 SW: 260 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/12 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 85.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
120H: 2021/02/13 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 85
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0+
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, FARAJI HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING AGAIN, WITH A
SIGNIFICANT COOLING OF THE CONVECTIVE RING. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ANALYSES ALSO SHOW THIS INTENSIFICATION. GIVEN THESE
ELEMENTS, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RAISED TO 105KT. THE
GPM SWATH OF 0229Z SHOW A WELL DEFINED INNER STRUCTURE, WITH A STRONG
INNER CONVECTIVE RING.
FARAJI IS TRACKING EASTWARD, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EQUATORIAL
RIDGE. BY MID-WEEK, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AND THE STEERING
FLOW GOES DOWN TO A LOWER LEVEL. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY BE
INFLUENCED BY THE SUBTROPICAL LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, AND THUS
TRACK IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION.
DUE TO THE CLOSE LINK BETWEEN THE WEAKENING PACE AND THE TRACK, THE
FORECAST IS PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN. THIS RESULTS IN A STRONG
DISPERSION WITHIN THE NUMERICAL MODELS. CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE NUMERICAL
MODELS.
FARADJI REMAINS UNDER THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE MID-LEVEL
SHEAR, SHOULD STRENGTHEN FROM TONIGHT AND START TO WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE. BY MID-WEEK, THE MID-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INJECT DRY AIR, WHICH
SHOULD STOP THE INTENSIFICATION, DESPITE THE PERSISTENCE OF A STRONG
ENERGY POTENTIAL AND AN UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS CHRONOLOGY.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR INHABITED LANDS.=
NNNN

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NOAASatellites/status/1358770933687865344

[cycloneye]

110 kts.

ZCZC 366
WTIO30 FMEE 081228
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/10/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)
2.A POSITION 2021/02/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 81.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 932 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/09 00 UTC: 14.3 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SW: 270 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
24H: 2021/02/09 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SW: 295 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
36H: 2021/02/10 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SW: 285 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
48H: 2021/02/10 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
60H: 2021/02/11 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SW: 280 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
72H: 2021/02/11 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 75
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/12 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SW: 270 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 85
120H: 2021/02/13 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 220 SW: 230 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 75
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.5-
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, FARAJI HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING AGAIN, WITH A
SIGNIFICANT COOLING OF THE CONVECTIVE RING. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ANALYSES ALSO SHOW THIS INTENSIFICATION. GIVEN THESE
ELEMENTS, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN HELD UP TO 110KT. THE
GPM SWATH OF 0229Z AND THE 1123Z SSMIS SHOW A WELL DEFINED INNER
STRUCTURE, WITH A SHRINKING EYE.
FARAJI IS TRACKING EASTWARD, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EQUATORIAL
RIDGE. BY MID-WEEK, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AND THE STEERING
FLOW GOES DOWN TO A LOWER LEVEL. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY BE
INFLUENCED BY THE SUBTROPICAL LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, AND THUS
TRACK IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION.
DUE TO THE CLOSE LINK BETWEEN THE WEAKENING PACE AND THE TRACK, THE
FORECAST IS PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN. THIS RESULTS IN A STRONG
DISPERSION WITHIN THE NUMERICAL MODELS. CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE NUMERICAL
MODELS.
FARADJI REMAINS UNDER THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE MID-LAYER
SHEAR IS SLOWLY STARTING TO SET UP ACCORDING TO THE CIMMS ANALYSIS
AND SHOULD STRENGTHEN FROM THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY
WEAKEN THE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE. FROM TOMORROW, AN INTRUSION OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IS ADDED, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A STRONGER WEAKENING
OF THE INTENSIFICATION, DESPITE THE PERSISTENCE OF A STRONG ENERGY
POTENTIAL AND AN UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODELS
DIVERGE ON THIS CHRONOLOGY; SOME MODELS WEAKEN THE METEOR MORE
RAPIDLY THAN OTHERS (NOTABLY GFS COMPARED TO IFS).
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR INHABITED LANDS.=
NNNN

[aspen]

Quite an impressive performance by Faraji over the last 24 hours. First it RI’ed into a 115 kt Cat 4, but then had an eyewall meld that weakened it down to high end Cat 3 before a surprise recovery into a 125 kt Cat 4.

[Nancy Smar]

TPXS10 PGTW 081507
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI)
B. 08/1415Z
C. 14.26S
D. 82.26E
E. THREE/GOES-IO
F. T7.0/7.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT OF
7.0. MET YIELDS 7.0. PT YIELDS 6.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
YOUNG

[aspen]

ADT now has an intensity estimate of 140-145 kt, with raws up to T#7.4.

[ElectricStorm]

ADT now has an intensity estimate of 140-145 kt, with raws up to T#7.4.

Geez Faraji's going off down there.

[CrazyC83]

ADT now has an intensity estimate of 140-145 kt, with raws up to T#7.4.

Geez Faraji's going off down there.

I'd estimate the intensity at 150 kt given its structure.

[ElectricStorm]

19S FARAJI 210208 1200 14.2S 82.0E SHEM 130 928
Seems a little low...

[aspen]

19S FARAJI 210208 1200 14.2S 82.0E SHEM 130 928
Seems a little low...

While the eye is occasionally hitting +20C, it’s not that clear, so I’m fine with something just a little below 140 kt.

Edit: the eye is actually a lot clearer than I thought. Yeah this is probably an easy 140-145 kt, could get upgraded once it starts weakening because typical JTWC.

[aspen]

Cat 5 in the 18z best track! 140 kt and 920 mbar.

First Cat 5 of 2021.

[cycloneye]

ZCZC 900
WTIO30 FMEE 081845
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/10/20202021
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)
2.A POSITION 2021/02/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 82.5 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.0/7.0/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 927 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 125 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 280 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 80 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/09 06 UTC: 14.3 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
24H: 2021/02/09 18 UTC: 14.7 S / 85.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 260 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
36H: 2021/02/10 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 85.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55
48H: 2021/02/10 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55
60H: 2021/02/11 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 85.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 295 SW: 215 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 65
72H: 2021/02/11 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 85.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 230 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/12 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 215 SW: 270 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 55
120H: 2021/02/13 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 130
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=7.0
FARAJI'S EYE CONFIGURATION IN IR IMAGERY CONTINUED TO IMPROVE TONIGHT
WITH A RING OF THICKER AND THICKER COLD CLOUD TOPS COMBINED WITH A
WARM EYE, THOUGH A BIT RAGGED AT TIMES. THE END-OF-DAY MICROWAVES
SHOWED AN IMPRESSIVE CENTRAL STRUCTURE. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES AVAILABLE ARE 125-130 KT IN 10-MINUTE WINDS AND THE FINAL
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 125 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A RADARSAT2
PASS AROUND 13Z REPORTED WINDS OF 135 KT (EQUIVALENT TO 1 MIN WINDS,
OR NEARLY 120 KT IN 10 MIN WINDS) IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST REASONING:
FARAJI IS TRACKING EASTWARD, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EQUATORIAL
RIDGE. BY MID-WEEK, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AND THE STEERING
FLOW GOES DOWN TO A LOWER LEVEL. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY BE
INFLUENCED BY THE SUBTROPICAL LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, AND THUS
TRACK IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION.
DUE TO THE CLOSE LINK BETWEEN THE WEAKENING PACE AND THE TRACK, THE
FORECAST IS PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN. THIS RESULTS IN A STRONG
DISPERSION WITHIN THE NUMERICAL MODELS. CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE NUMERICAL
MODELS. IT IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH FROM THE 11TH COMPARED TO THE LAST
FORECAST IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE.
FARAJI REMAINS UNDER THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE MID-LAYER SHEAR
IS SLOWLY STARTING TO SET UP ACCORDING TO THE CIMMS ANALYSIS. FROM
TOMORROW, AN INTRUSION OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IS ADDED, WHICH SHOULD
STOP THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS AND LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND,
DESPITE THE PERSISTENCE OF A STRONG ENERGY POTENTIAL AND AN UPPER
DIVERGENCE. THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODELS DIVERGE ON THIS CHRONOLOGY;
SOME MODELS WEAKEN THE METEOR MORE RAPIDLY THAN OTHERS (NOTABLY GFS
COMPARED TO IFS).
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR INHABITED LANDS.=
NNNN

[ElectricStorm]

Cat 5 in the 18z best track! 140 kt and 920 mbar.

First Cat 5 of 2021.

Wow what a monster! Honestly didn't expect a Cat 5 out of this but Faraji got it done. Always cool to see when their not barreling towards land

[Meteophile]

Wow what a monster! Honestly didn't expect a Cat 5 out of this but Faraji got it done. Always cool to see when their not barreling towards land

Models are showing something sad for the moment.

[aspen]

Wow what a monster! Honestly didn't expect a Cat 5 out of this but Faraji got it done. Always cool to see when their not barreling towards land

Models are showing something sad for the moment.

Yeah, they’re showing Faraji swinging towards Madagascar and re-intensifying, but that recovery phase is 5-7 days out. We don’t know if it’ll survive its slow down and curve to the east.

[ElectricStorm]

Wow what a monster! Honestly didn't expect a Cat 5 out of this but Faraji got it done. Always cool to see when their not barreling towards land

Models are showing something sad for the moment.

Yeah, they’re showing Faraji swinging towards Madagascar and re-intensifying, but that recovery phase is 5-7 days out. We don’t know if it’ll survive its slow down and curve to the east.

Oh man I may have spoken too early... I haven't even looked at the models I just saw the weakening in the forecast and thought it would die out... Hopefully it will before it reaches any land areas

[cycloneye]

ZCZC 128
WTIO30 FMEE 090037
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/10/20202021
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)
2.A POSITION 2021/02/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 83.1 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/7.0/S 0.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 925 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 125 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 280 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 80 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/09 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 84.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
24H: 2021/02/10 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 315 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
36H: 2021/02/10 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 85.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55
48H: 2021/02/11 00 UTC: 15.6 S / 85.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
60H: 2021/02/11 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 85.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 85
72H: 2021/02/12 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 95 NW: 75
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/13 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 55
120H: 2021/02/14 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 175 SW: 185 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 35
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.0+ CI=7.0
SHORTLY AFTER 18Z, FARAJI'S IR-IMAGERY EYE CONFIGURATION BEGAN TO
SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS WITH SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS IN THE
DEFINITION OF THE EYE WHICH ALSO BECAME LESS WARM. THE MICROWAVES AT
THE END OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOW THAT DESPITE THIS THE
CORE OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS VERY WELL ORGANIZED AND COMPACT
(CONTRACTION STILL OBSERVED IN THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS). NO SIGN
OF ONSET OF A EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS IDENTIFIED FOR THE MOMENT.
THE FINAL INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 125 KT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GENERAL FORECAST REASONING:
FARAJI IS TRACKING EASTWARD, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EQUATORIAL
RIDGE. BY MID-WEEK, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AND THE STEERING
FLOW GOES DOWN TO A LOWER LEVEL. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY BE
INFLUENCED BY THE SUBTROPICAL LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, AND THUS
TRACK IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION, AFTER A PROBABLE PHASE OF VERY
SLOW OR EVEN QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.
DUE TO THE CLOSE LINK BETWEEN THE WEAKENING PACE AND THE TRACK, THE
FORECAST IS PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN. THIS RESULTS IN A STRONG
DISPERSION WITHIN THE NUMERICAL MODELS. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT
FORECAST FAVOURS THE OPTION OF A FAIRLY NORTHERLY CURVATURE WITH A
FAIRLY RAPID WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SEEMS TO BE
GRADUALLY BECOMING THE SUBJECT OF GREATER CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD FROM THE SECOND PART
OF THE WEEK, COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE SHEAR OF THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE IS STARTING TO SLOWLY SET UP
ACCORDING TO THE CIMMS ANALYSIS. IT SHOULD NOW FAVOR AN INTRUSION OF
DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE AROUND 400 HPA, WHICH SHOULD START
A WEAKENING TREND, DESPITE THE MAINTENANCE OF A STRONG ENERGY
POTENTIAL AND GOOD UPPER LEVELS DIVERGENCE. THEREAFTER, THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME QUITE MIXED: NO STRONG SHEAR IS EXPECTED BUT
DRY AIR OF MID TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN PRESENT NEAR THE CENTER IN THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO IS FOR A
SYSTEM THAT STABILIZES AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM BUT DEGENERATION
INTO A REMNANT LOW IS A VERY POSSIBLE ALTERNATIVE.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR INHABITED LANDS.=
NNNN

[cycloneye]

ZCZC 092
WTIO30 FMEE 090622
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/10/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)
2.A POSITION 2021/02/09 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0 S / 83.5 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 930 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 280 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 80 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/09 18 UTC: 14.5 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55
24H: 2021/02/10 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55
36H: 2021/02/10 18 UTC: 15.2 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
48H: 2021/02/11 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 75
60H: 2021/02/11 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 65
72H: 2021/02/12 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 75
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/13 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 75
120H: 2021/02/14 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 140 SW: 175 NW: 95
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.0+ CI=7.0
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE FARAJI EYE CONFIGURATION HAS CONTINUED TO
FLUCTUATE, WITH ONE EYE SLIGHTLY ELONGATED AND SLIGHTLY WEAKENED
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR. THESE FLUCTUATIONS ARE CERTAINLY
RELATED TO THE WIND SHEAR WHICH IS MORE AND MORE PRESENT IN THE
SOUTHERN SECTOR. FOR THE MOMENT, THERE IS NO SIGN OF AN EYE WALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE, THE EFFECT OF SHEAR BEING PREDOMINANT. ACCORDING
TO THESE REMARKS, THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS A LITTLE BIT LOWER ALLOWING
A WIND ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 110KT. FARAJI IS THEREFORE AN INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GENERAL PHILOSOPHY OF FORECAST:
FARAJI IS MOVING EASTWARD, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EQUATORIAL
RIDGE. BY MID-WEEK, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE DIRECTIONAL
FLOW DROPS TO A LOWER LEVEL, THUS PRESENTING A SLOWDOWN (OR EVEN A
QUASI-STATIONARY PHASE) AND A TURN TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SUBTROPICAL LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, AND THUS TAKE A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION. IN
VIEW OF THE CLOSE LINK BETWEEN THE SPEED OF THE WEAKENING AND THE
TRACK, THE FORECAST IS PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN, ON THE EXACT
CHRONOLOGY OF THE TURN. THIS RESULTS IN A STRONG DISPERSION WITHIN
THE NUMERICAL MODELS. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVOURS THE
OPTION OF A FAIRLY NORTHERLY CURVE WITH A FAIRLY RAPID WEAKENING OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SEEMS TO BE GRADUALLY BECOMING THE SUBJECT OF
GREATER CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE
SHIFTED NORTHWARD COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM THE SECOND
PART OF THE WEEK.
THE SHEAR OF THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SET UP ACCORDING
TO THE CIMMS ANALYSIS. IT SHOULD FAVOUR TODAY AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR
IN AVERAGE TROPOSPHERE AROUND 400 HPA, WHICH SHOULD START A PHASE OF
DECLINE, DESPITE THE MAINTENANCE OF A STRONG ENERGY POTENTIAL AND A
DIVERGENCE OF ALTITUDE. THEREAFTER, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME QUITE
MIXED: A STRONG SHEAR EXPECTED BUT FURTHER SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND
DRY AIR OF MEDIUM TROPOSPHERE WHICH WILL REMAIN PRESENT NEAR THE
CENTER IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE MOST PROBABLE
SCENARIO IS FOR A SYSTEM THAT STABILIZES AT THE MINIMUM TROPICAL
STORM STAGE BUT THE DEGENERATION INTO A RESIDUAL DEPRESSION IS A
POSSIBLE ALTERNATIVE.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR THE INHABITED
LANDS AT THE MOMENT.=
NNNN

[cycloneye]

ZCZC 679
WTIO30 FMEE 091257
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/10/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)
2.A POSITION 2021/02/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 84.3 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 280 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 80 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/10 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55
24H: 2021/02/10 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 305 SW: 285 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
36H: 2021/02/11 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 85.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
48H: 2021/02/11 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 75
60H: 2021/02/12 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 75
72H: 2021/02/12 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 65
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/13 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 175 SW: 220 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 65
120H: 2021/02/14 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SW: 195 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 35
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5 CI=6.0
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE OF FARAJI IS TOTALLY COVERED BY THE
ALTITUDE CLOUDS, DUE TO THE MID-SHEAR AS SUGGESTED BY THE CIMMS
ANALYSIS. CONVECTION IS ALWAYS STRONG WITH COLD TOPS WICH ARE
DISORGANIZE AROUND THE SUPPOSED LLCC. IN LACK OF RECENT ASCAT AND
MICROWAVE DATA, THE LOCATION OF THE LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
REMAINS TRICKY.
THE LAST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM. THUS, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 100 KT.
FARAJI IS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
EQUATORIAL RIDGE. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH THE WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM, THE STEERING FLOW GOES DOWN TO A LOWER LEVEL AND FARAJI
IS TAKEN OVER BY THE WESTERN EDGE OF A RIDGE LOCATED FURTHER EAST
WHICH TENDS TO STRENGTHEN, WHICH FROM NEXT WEDNESDAY, TENDS TO SLOW
DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF FARAJI. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, FARAJI
TRACKS, UNDER THE CONTROL OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. DUE
THE CLOSE LINK BETWEEN THE RATE OF THE WEAKENING AND THE TRAJECTORY,
THE PREDICTION IS PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN, ON THE EXACT CHRONOLOGY OF
THE TURN. THIS RESULTS IN A STRONG DISPERSION WITHIN THE NUMERICAL
MODELS.
HOWEVER, THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVOURS THE OPTION OF A FAIRLY WIDE
TURN COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY RAPID WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THIS FORECAST SEEMS TO BE GRADUALLY GATHERING MORE CONSENSUS.
MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY PRESENT. IT SHOULD FAVOR AN
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN MID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERE, WHICH CONFIRMS THE
DECLINE PHASE CURRENTLY OBSERVED, DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG
OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THEREAFTER, THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME RATHER UNCONDUCIVE: A STRONG UPPER CONSTRAINT
IN THE WESTERN SECTOR COMBINED WITH AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN THE
MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE NEAR THE CENTER ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SEMICIRCLES. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT FARAJI WILL
STABILIZE AT THE RANK OF A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR THE INHABITED
LANDS AT THE MOMENT.=