SIO: FARAJI - Remnants

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Nancy Smar
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1081
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm

SIO: FARAJI - Remnants

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Thu Feb 04, 2021 9:33 am

90S INVEST 210204 1200 11.0S 80.0E SHEM 15 0
Last edited by Nancy Smar on Sat Feb 06, 2021 1:20 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Nancy Smar
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1081
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm

Re: SIO: 10 - Tropical Depression

#2 Postby Nancy Smar » Fri Feb 05, 2021 5:18 am

Tropical Depression no10 :
Position at 0900UTC: 12.9S/81.0E
Estimated minimum pressure: 1000hPa
Max wind over 10 minutes: 30kt, locally 35kt
Displacement: South-South-West 4kt
0 likes   

User avatar
Nancy Smar
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1081
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm

Re: SIO: 10 - Tropical Depression

#3 Postby Nancy Smar » Fri Feb 05, 2021 5:20 am

Special Weather Bulletin
Fri, Feb 5, 2021

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 1130 hours on 05 February 2021
General
At 1000 hours this morning the low pressure area which was evolving to the South-East of Diego-Garcia has slightly intensified and is currently a tropical disturbance. Satellite imageries show that the cloud system associated with the tropical disturbance is better organized. It was located near latitude 12.6 degrees South and longitude 81.3 degrees East.


Outlook from weather models.
Most numerical models agree to develop the tropical disturbance while moving in a general southerly direction at first and towards the South-East thereafter. Conditions are becoming favourable for the tropical disturbance to intensify into a tropical depression this afternoon.
If this trend continues, it is likely to intensify further into a moderate tropical storm early tomorrow morning Saturday 06 February 2021. If this scenario materialises, the system will be named FARAJI.
There are still some uncertainties regarding its intensity and track.


Weather at Mauritius and Rodrigues
The system will not directly influence weather over Mauritius and Rodrigues over the next five days.
The system is being closely monitored and this bulletin will be updated tomorrow Saturday 06 February 2021.


05 February 2021
Vacoas
0 likes   

User avatar
Nancy Smar
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1081
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm

Re: SIO: 10 - Tropical Depression

#4 Postby Nancy Smar » Fri Feb 05, 2021 5:26 am

SH, 19, 2021020506, , BEST, 0, 126S, 814E, 35, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 20, 80, 65, 1008, 165, 30, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, NINETEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED, shD02021 to sh192021,

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001
WTXS32 PGTW 050900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 12.6S 81.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 81.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 12.9S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 13.2S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 13.8S 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 14.5S 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 14.0S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 13.8S 84.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.3S 87.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 81.2E.
05FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
616 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052100Z AND 060900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S
(EIGHTEEN) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).//
BT
#0001
NNNN
0 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: SIO: 10 - Tropical Depression

#5 Postby aspen » Fri Feb 05, 2021 6:17 am

Seems like the consensus is that this is going to explode very soon. 110 kt for the first advisory is very aggressive.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
Nancy Smar
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1081
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Tropical Storm

#6 Postby Nancy Smar » Fri Feb 05, 2021 6:30 am

Special Weather Bulletin
Fri, Feb 5, 2021

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Weather Outlook updated at 1500 hours on 05 February 2021
General

The tropical depression which was evolving to the South-East of Diego-Garcia continued to intensify and is already a moderate tropical storm. It has been named Faraji by the Mauritius Meteorological Services at 1500hours when it was located near latitude 13.2 degrees S and longitude 80.9 degrees E.
Outlook from weather models.
Most numerical models agree to its movement in a general southerly direction at first and towards the South-east thereafter.
There are still some uncertainties regarding its intensity and track.
Weather at Mauritius and Rodrigues
The system will not directly influence weather over Mauritius and Rodrigues over the next five days.
The system is being closely monitored and this bulletin will be updated tomorrow Saturday 06 February 2021.

05 February 2021

Vacoas
0 likes   

User avatar
Nancy Smar
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1081
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Tropical Storm

#7 Postby Nancy Smar » Fri Feb 05, 2021 7:14 am

FKIO20 FMEE 051204
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20210205/1204Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: FARAJI
ADVISORY NR: 2021/01
OBS PSN: 05/1200Z S1314 E08112
CB: WI 130NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL530
MOV: S 04KT
INTST CHANGE: INTSF
C: 994HPA
MAX WIND: 40KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 05/1800Z S1329 E08110
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 43KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 06/0000Z S1343 E08105
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 45KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 06/0600Z S1357 E08053
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 48KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 06/1200Z S1407 E08046
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 50KT
RMK:
NXT MSG: 20210205/1800Z=


WTIO20 FMEE 051208
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/02/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 002/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 05/02/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 81.2 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 130 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/06 AT 00 UTC:
13.7 S / 81.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 55 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/06 AT 12 UTC:
14.1 S / 80.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 15 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=
0 likes   

User avatar
Nancy Smar
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1081
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Tropical Storm

#8 Postby Nancy Smar » Fri Feb 05, 2021 7:51 am

WTIO30 FMEE 051238
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/10/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 81.2 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/06 00 UTC: 13.7 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 150 SW: 280 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 100

24H: 2021/02/06 12 UTC: 14.1 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 155 SW: 280 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55

36H: 2021/02/07 00 UTC: 14.3 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 155 SW: 280 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 65

48H: 2021/02/07 12 UTC: 14.1 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 155 SW: 280 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 75

60H: 2021/02/08 00 UTC: 13.9 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 280 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 75

72H: 2021/02/08 12 UTC: 13.7 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 280 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/09 12 UTC: 14.0 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 280 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2021/02/10 12 UTC: 13.9 S / 86.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 280 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 80 SW: 50 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

SUBJECT TO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF MORE AND MORE PROPICES, SYSTEM
10 CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN TO REACH THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
THRESHOLD. IT WAS NAMED FARAJI AT 11UTC BY THE MAURITIAN
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN
HAS FLUCTUATED BETWEEN A CURVED BAND AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST,
WHICH IT CURRENTLY MAINTAINS. A DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 3.0- CAN BE DONE
BY BREAKING THE EARLY LIFE CONSTRAINTS. THIS LEAVES A WIND ESTIMATE
OF AROUND 40KT, SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECASTING, FARAJI REMAINS UNDER THE OPPOSITE
INFLUENCE OF TWO CENTERS OF ACTION: THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED
IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. UNDER THIS INFLUENCE, THE TRACK WILL
BE RATHER ERRATIC OR SLOW IN A GLOBAL SOUTHWARD DIRECTION DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER, WITH THE SHIFT AND WEAKENING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, FARAJI WILL TAKE A MORE DIRECT EASTWARD TRACK AND
ACCELERATE. BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT RUNS OF THE MODELS AND BETWEEN THE
DIFFERENT GUIDELINES, THERE IS A CERTAIN DIVERGENCE FOR THE LONGER
PERIODS OF TIME. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS TRANSLATED BY A RATHER WIDE ZONE
AT THE END OF 4 TO 5 DAYS, BOTH IN SPEED OF DISPLACEMENT BUT ALSO IN
LATITUDE AT THE END OF THE ERRATIC TRACK.

AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONCERNED, FARAJI IS CURRENTLY
UNDER WEAKENING WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS AND A WELL-DEFINED WET FEED IN
ITS NORTHERN PART. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, THE MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM SHOULD BE ABLE TO INTENSIFY STEADILY OR EVEN RAPIDLY OVER THE
NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS WILL BRING IT TO THE THRESHOLD OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OR EVEN MORE BEFORE THE DYNAMICS OF ALTITUDE FURTHER SOUTH
INDUCE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AND THE BEGINNING OF DRY AIR INTRUSION.
THESE INGREDIENTS WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. AS WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK FORECAST, THERE IS A CERTAIN DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE
DIFFERENT GUIDELINES. THE PRESENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS THEREFORE
RATHER UNCERTAIN AND WILL TAKE 4 TO 5 DAYS TO COMPLETE.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR INHABITED LANDS.=
0 likes   

User avatar
Nancy Smar
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1081
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Tropical Storm

#9 Postby Nancy Smar » Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:52 am

19S FARAJI 210205 1200 13.4S 80.9E SHEM 45 999

TPXS10 PGTW 051313
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI)
B. 05/1115Z
C. 13.23S
D. 80.94E
E. FIVE/GOES-IO
F. T2.5/2.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .45 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
05/0811Z 12.92S 80.82E ATMS
05/1048Z 13.12S 80.88E SSMS
05/1059Z 13.23S 81.02E SSMI

RHOADES

TPXS10 PGTW 051454
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI)
B. 05/1415Z
C. 13.41S
D. 80.96E
E. FIVE/GOES-IO
F. T3.0/3.0/D2.0/18HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .60 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
05/1048Z 13.12S 80.88E SSMS
05/1059Z 13.23S 81.02E SSMI

RHOADES
0 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Tropical Storm

#10 Postby aspen » Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:07 am

An eyewall is already developing.
Image
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Tropical Storm

#11 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 05, 2021 5:36 pm

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Tropical Storm

#12 Postby aspen » Fri Feb 05, 2021 6:22 pm


I’d say the ceiling is pretty high for Faraji. It’s already up to 50 kt and could be up to 60 kt by 00z, and the environment looks pretty good. A low to moderate Cat 4 seems to be a good bet as of now.

Clearer and more recent microwave pass of the quickly forming eyewall:
Image
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
Nancy Smar
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1081
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Tropical Storm

#13 Postby Nancy Smar » Fri Feb 05, 2021 8:04 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 060011
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/10/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/06 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7 S / 80.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/06 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 250 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65

24H: 2021/02/07 00 UTC: 14.7 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2021/02/07 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 55

48H: 2021/02/08 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2021/02/08 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 280 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/02/09 00 UTC: 14.7 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/10 00 UTC: 15.6 S / 85.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SW: 285 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 55

120H: 2021/02/11 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 86.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 70

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HRS, THE CLOUD PATTERN IMPROVED AGAIN WITH CONVECTION
WRAPPING MORE TIGHTLY AROUND THE CENTER. THE 37GHZ AMSR2 2003Z IMAGE
ILLUSTRATES THE CONSOLIDATION OF FARAJI'S INNER CORE, ALREADY WELL
DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS STRUCTURE AND GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE
ARE SUGGESTING A FAIR CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, FARAJI REMAINS UNDER OPPOSITE INFLUENCES
: THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST AND THE EQUATORIAL
RIDGE IN THE NORTH. UNDER THESE CONTRARY INFLUENCES, THE TRACK IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE ERRATIC AND SLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS, FOLLOWING
A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD MOTION. THEN, A MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD
ISOLATE ITSELF IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF FARAJI AND PUSH IT MORE STRONGLY
EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD. THESE MULTIPLE INFLUENCES ARE
DIFFICULT TO HANDLE FOR THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, YIELDING A LARGE
MODEL SPREAD ILLUSTRATING A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON FARAJI'S LOCATION
FROM MONDAY.

FARAJI SHOULD RELOCATE UNDER THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS IT SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW IT TO STILL BENEFIT FROM A GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE WHILE ESCAPING THE SHEAR. OVER WATERS WITH HIGH HEAT
CONTENT, FARAJI SHOULD INTENSIFY QUITE QUICKLY OVER THE WEEK-END.
FROM MONDAY, A TROUGH IS COMING CLOSER FROM THE SOUTH-WEST AND SHOULD
DRIVE THE EMERGENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. ASSOCIATED TO
DRY AIR, THIS CONSTRAINT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW FARAJI'S DEVELOPMENT
DOWN, OR EVEN STOP IT TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER SHEAR
WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN AND SHOULD WEAKEN THE STORM MORE EFFICIENTLY.
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO, AND
NOW SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A FAIR PROBABILITY OF FARAJI REACHING THE
STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.


THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT FOR INHABITED LANDS.=
0 likes   

User avatar
Nancy Smar
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1081
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Tropical Storm

#14 Postby Nancy Smar » Fri Feb 05, 2021 8:05 pm

19S FARAJI 210206 0000 13.6S 80.2E SHEM 55 990

19S FARAJI 210206 0000 13.6S 80.2E SHEM 60 987

19S FARAJI 210206 0000 13.8S 80.1E SHEM 50 993

TPXS10 PGTW 060018
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI)
B. 05/2345Z
C. 13.54S
D. 79.70E
E. FIVE/GOES-IO
F. T3.5/3.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .70 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 3.0. PT YIELDS 3.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
05/2005Z 13.40S 80.28E AMS2
05/2005Z 13.37S 80.15E MMHS

HEINS
Last edited by Nancy Smar on Sat Feb 06, 2021 1:52 am, edited 4 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Nancy Smar
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1081
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Tropical Storm

#15 Postby Nancy Smar » Fri Feb 05, 2021 8:06 pm

WTXS32 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 13.2S 80.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 80.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 13.6S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 14.1S 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 14.4S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 14.4S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 14.2S 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 14.9S 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 16.1S 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 80.2E.
05FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 588
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A STRENGTHENING COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING
OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 051605Z METOP-B AMSU
89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS AN INTENSE CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING FROM THE WESTERN QUADRANT INTO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM. A 051452Z ASCAT-A IMAGE REVEALS A LLCC WITH 30-35 KNOT WINDS,
HOWEVER THE LLCC IS ON THE EDGE OF THE PASS AND ONLY SHOWS THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE LEADING TO THE CONCLUSION THAT IT IS NOT
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON AVERAGING BETWEEN PGTW/FMEE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS), ADT OF 3.4 (53 KNOTS), AND A SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT
29C. OVERALL, THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLEX,
WEAK AND EVOLVING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING LOW OVERALL
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS HAS ALREADY PROVEN TRUE
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS,
WHEN IT WAS ORIGINALLY FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY. THROUGH
TAU 36, TC 19S WILL STEER SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS STR WILL WEAKEN AND TC 19S SHOULD
SLOW, PERHAPS BECOME BRIEFLY QUASI-STATIONARY, THEN TRACK EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD AS A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) ASSUMES
CONTROL OF THE STEERING. AFTER TAU 96, A WEAK STEERING RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST OF THE SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD STEER IT SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A WIDE SPREAD IN THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TURN TO THE EAST AND THEN TO THE SOUTH
LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK AT THIS TIME. TC 19S HAS RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATED AND IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY REACHING 100 KNOTS
BY TAU 48 AND A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72 WITH A SLIGHT
WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND 062100Z.
//
NNNN
0 likes   

User avatar
Nancy Smar
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1081
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Tropical Storm

#16 Postby Nancy Smar » Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:29 pm

Image
Image
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Nancy Smar
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1081
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Severe Tropical Storm

#17 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Feb 06, 2021 1:19 am

WTIO20 FMEE 060616
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 06/02/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 79.9 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 120 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/06 AT 18 UTC:
14.6 S / 79.9 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/07 AT 06 UTC:
14.9 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=
0 likes   

User avatar
Nancy Smar
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1081
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Severe Tropical Storm

#18 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Feb 06, 2021 1:37 am

19S FARAJI 210206 0600 14.0S 79.8E SHEM 60 986

19S FARAJI 210206 0600 14.0S 79.8E SHEM 55 991

19S FARAJI 210206 0600 14.0S 79.8E SHEM 60 988

TPXS10 PGTW 060606
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI)
B. 06/0515Z
C. 14.02S
D. 79.77E
E. FIVE/GOES-IO
F. T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .80 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
06/0042Z 13.72S 80.03E SSMS

YOUNG
Last edited by Nancy Smar on Sat Feb 06, 2021 3:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Nancy Smar
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1081
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Severe Tropical Storm

#19 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Feb 06, 2021 2:05 am

WTIO30 FMEE 060657
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/10/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 79.9 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/06 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2021/02/07 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2021/02/07 18 UTC: 14.9 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

48H: 2021/02/08 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2021/02/08 18 UTC: 14.7 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2021/02/09 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/10 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 405 SW: 400 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2021/02/11 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 85.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 345 SW: 285 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HRS, THE CLOUD PATTERN IMPROVED AGAIN WITH CONVECTION
ORGANIZED IN WELL DEFINED CDO.
THE CONSOLIDATION OF FARAJI'S INNER CORE IS ILLUSTRATED BY THE 37GHZ
AND 89GHZ SSMIS 0039Z IMAGE, WHERE AN QUITE CLOSED EYE APPEARS ON
THESE TWO CHANNELS.
THIS STRUCTURE AND GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE ARE SUGGESTING A FAIR CHANCE
OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, FARAJI REMAINS UNDER OPPOSITE INFLUENCES
: THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST AND THE EQUATORIAL
RIDGE IN THE NORTH. UNDER THESE CONTRARY INFLUENCES, THE TRACK IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE ERRATIC AND SLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS, FOLLOWING
A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD EVEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MOTION, UNDER THE GROWING
INFLUENCE (DUE TO THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM) OF THE RIDGE
PRESENT AROUND 500/400HPA IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM.
THEN, A MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD ISOLATE ITSELF IN THE SOUTH-WEST
OF FARAJI, ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE
AND THE ERASING OF THE EASTERN RIDGE, SHOULD PUSH IT MORE STRONGLY
EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, A RIDGE
SHOULD REBUILT IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM, DIRECTING THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM MORE SHARPLY TO THE SOUTH.
THESE MULTIPLE INFLUENCES ARE DIFFICULT TO HANDLE FOR THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE, YIELDING A LARGE MODEL SPREAD ILLUSTRATING A STRONG
UNCERTAINTY ON FARAJI'S LOCATION FROM MONDAY.

FARAJI SHOULD RELOCATE UNDER THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS IT SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW IT TO STILL BENEFIT FROM A GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE WHILE ESCAPING THE SHEAR. OVER WATERS WITH HIGH HEAT
CONTENT, FARAJI SHOULD INTENSIFY QUITE QUICKLY OVER THE WEEK-END.
FROM MONDAY, A TROUGH IS COMING CLOSER FROM THE SOUTH-WEST AND SHOULD
DRIVE THE EMERGENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. ASSOCIATED TO
DRY AIR, THIS CONSTRAINT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW FARAJI'S DEVELOPMENT
DOWN, OR EVEN STOP IT TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER SHEAR
WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN AND SHOULD WEAKEN THE STORM MORE EFFICIENTLY.
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO, AND
NOW SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A FAIR PROBABILITY OF FARAJI REACHING THE
STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT FOR INHABITED LANDS.=
0 likes   

User avatar
Nancy Smar
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1081
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm

Re: SIO: FARAJI - Severe Tropical Storm

#20 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Feb 06, 2021 4:00 am

WTXS32 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 14.0S 79.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 79.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 14.5S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 14.8S 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 14.7S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 14.6S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.8S 82.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.8S 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 16.8S 84.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 79.8E.
06FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
597 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CURVED
BANDING IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KTS
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS, FMEE) AND T3.5 (55 KTS, PGTW
AND FIMP) AND A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T3.8 (61 KTS). TC FARAJI IS TRACKING THROUGH A HIGHLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST), ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, AND LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY IN A COMPLEX, ALBEIT WEAK, STEERING ENVIRONMENT THAT HAS
LEAD TO A RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS
SLOW SYSTEM MOTION, COUPLED WITH HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, WILL LEAD TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM TO
90 KTS BY TAU 12. DURING THIS TIME THE STORM MOTION IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY SLOW AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS POLEWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH-
EAST. AFTER TAU 12, TC FARAJI WILL BEGIN TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH AS THE INITIAL STEERING STR WEAKENS. CONTINUED FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH TAU 72 AT WHICH TIME THE SYSTEM WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 110 KTS. THEREAFTER, A BUILDING STR POSITIONED TO THE EAST WILL
OVERTAKE STEERING AND BEGIN TO DRIVE TC FARAJI SOUTHEASTWARD. DURING
THIS TIME, MODERATE (15-25 KTS) VWS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TO 90 KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL FAIR
AGREEMENT. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE CONVERGED ON A GENERALLY EASTWARD
STORM MOTION AFTER TAU 24-36, HOWEVER THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE IN
TRACK DIRECTION IS COMPLICATED BY THE OVERALL COMPLEX AND DYNAMIC
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY
EQUATORWARD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE CONTRIBUTION
FROM THE NAVGEM SOLUTION WHICH LIES 100NM SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS
TRACK AT TAU 36. OVERALL, MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS OVERALL FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z AND 070900Z.
//
NNNN
0 likes   


Return to “2021”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 19 guests