SPAC: INVEST 91P

[cycloneye]

91P INVEST 210206 0000 14.2S 137.4E SHEM

[Nancy Smar]

ABPW10 PGTW 060830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/060830Z-070600ZFEB2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.1S 137.3E, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 060710Z
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOW FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A DISORGANIZED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 91P
WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ENTER OVER NORTHERN
AUSTRALIA, RESULTING IN A LOW LIKELIHOOD OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN 2.B.(1).//
NNNN

[Nancy Smar]

91P INVEST 210206 0600 15.1S 137.3E SHEM 25 997