Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 072302 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD09F CENTER [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.3S
178.9W AT 071800UTC. TD09F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. CONVECTION IS PERSISTENT
IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC HOWEVER ORGANISATION
REMAINS POOR.
SYSTEM LIES TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SOUTH OF AN
UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS MODERATE AND INCREASING MODERATE TO HIGH IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.