WPAC: DUJUAN - Remnants

[Hayabusa]

The invest the GFS seems to develop over the many past runs, could this be the first TC of 2021 that would reach warning criteria?

91W.INVEST

91W.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.5N.142.5E

[Nancy Smar]

91W INVEST 210213 0000 5.0N 142.5E WPAC 15 0

INVEST, WP, W, , , , , 91, 2021, DB, O, 2021021300, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , WP912021

[Nancy Smar]

ABPW10 PGTW 130600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZFEB2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 71W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.9N
142.5E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 130334Z AMSR2 89GHZ
MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS DISORGANIZED BANDING WITH FLARING CONVECTION
IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A WEAK, SLIGHTLY ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST
91W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
WITH GOOD WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITH
POSSIBLE CONSOLIDATION OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

Multimodel as of latest

[Nancy Smar]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 06N 141E WEST SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 150600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/150600Z-160600ZFEB2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.0N 139.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7N 140.7E, APPROXIMATELY 217
NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP.. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
142357Z METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS DISORGANIZED BANDING
WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO A
WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 142243Z ASCAT-A PASS
INDICATES AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH 15-20KT WINDS WITH A RELATIVELY
SMALL AREA OF 20-25KT WINDS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 91W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR NORTHWESTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
(10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W WILL
TRACK WESTWARD WITH POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE 2-3 DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

From yesterday's 12Z UKMET making it a decent TS. hmm

Today's 00Z still a TS, Euro 989 mb

[Hayabusa]

WTPN21 PGTW 161400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.3N 135.0E TO 7.9N 131.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 161200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.4N 134.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.3N 135.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 134.7E, APPROXIMATELY 15
NM EAST OF BABELTHUAP, PALAU, FSM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (IER)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 160927Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO AN OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). INVEST 91W IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
91W WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
171400Z.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 161200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 161200.
WARNING VALID 171200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 07N 136E WEST SLOWLY.

[Iceresistance]

Could this be the first Depression (1W) or named storm of 2021? (First name is Dujuan)

[Hayabusa]

Could this be the first Depression (1W) or named storm of 2021? (First name is Dujuan)

Very possible all reliable models show at least a TS prediction

[Nancy Smar]

WTPQ50 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 06.9N 134.6E POOR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 180000UTC 07.0N 132.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 190000UTC 07.0N 131.5E 130NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 200000UTC 07.4N 129.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 210000UTC 09.9N 126.1E 280NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
120HF 220000UTC 11.0N 120.8E 390NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[Hayabusa]

Interesting Euro ensemble 18Z top 5 ensemble showing typhoon pressures

[Nancy Smar]

Tropical Depression "Auring"

Tropical Cyclone: ALERT
Issued at 11:00 am, 17 February 2021
(Valid for broadcast until the next advisory to be issued at 11 PM today)

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOUTHEAST OF HINATUAN, SURIGAO DEL SUR HAS ENTERED PAR AND WAS NAMED "AURING".

Track and intensity outlook:

“AURING” entered the PAR at 8:00 AM today.
Tropical Depression “AURING” is forecast to move generally westward or west-southwestward in the next 12 hours. Afterwards, “AURING” will move generally west-northwestward and is forecast to make landfall over Caraga on Saturday evening or Sunday morning as Tropical Storm.

Hazards affecting land areas:

Rainfall:
“AURING” is currently not affecting any part of the country. However, localities in Visayas, Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, Caraga, Northern Mindanao, Davao Region, Cotabato, and Lanao del Sur, especially those situated in areas identified in hazard maps to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards, are advised to take appropriate preparatory measures due to increasing likelihood of heavy rains and gusty conditions associated with the potential passage of a tropical cyclone during the weekend through Monday.
Meanwhile, today, the Tail-End of a Frontal System will bring moderate to heavy rains over Eastern Visayas, Sorsogon, Masbate, Albay, Catanduanes and light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Central Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, and the rest of Bicol Region. Isolated flooding and rain-induced landslides may occur due to heavy rainfall or prolonged periods of rainfall, especially in areas identified in hazard maps to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. Adjacent or nearby areas may also experience flooding in the absence of such rainfall occurrence due to surface runoff or swelling of river channels.
•Strong Winds: No locality is currently under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #1. However, in anticipation of the arrival of strong breeze to near-gale conditions due to “AURING”, TCWS #1 may be raised over several provinces of Caraga and Davao Region as early as Friday, which may result in the disruption of maritime activities.

Hazards affecting coastal waters:

In the next 24 hours, rough to very rough seas (2.8 to 4.5 m) will be experienced over the seaboards of Northern Luzon. Sea travel is risky over these areas, especially for mariners of small seacrafts.
Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 3.1 m) will be experienced over the eastern seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.

Location of Eye/center
At 10:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Depression "AURING" was estimated based on all available data at 900 km East Southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur (06.3 °N, 134.2 °E )

Movement
Moving West Southwestward at 20 km/h

Strength
Maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 55 km/h

Forecast Position
24 Hour(Tomorrow morning): 680 km East Southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur(6.9°N, 132.3°E)
48 Hour(Friday morning):515 km East Southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur( 7.3°N, 130.9°E)
72 Hour(Saturday morning): 290 km East Southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur( 7.7°N, 128.9°E)
96 Hour(Sunday morning):In the vicinity of Jabonga, Agusan del Norte( 9.4°N, 125.5°E)
120 Hour(Monday morning):In the vicinity of Maasin, Iloilo( 10.9°N, 122.4°E)

Wind Signal
No Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next update to be incorporated in the 4 PM Public Weather Forecast and in the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

[Hayabusa]

[Nancy Smar]

WP, 01, 2021021706, , BEST, 0, 66N, 1331E, 25, 1002, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1005, 200, 35, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, ONE, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED, wpA12021 to wp012021,

[Hayabusa]

WDPN31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING
NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 88 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF KOROR, REPUBLIC OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE RAIN BANDS WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION
LOOSELY WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW CLOUD
TRACING IN THE MSI LOOP INTO THE OBSCURED LLC AND LINED UP WITH A
FORMATIVE LLC FEATURE IN THE 170447Z GCOM MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T1.5/25KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE WIND AND
PRESSURE OBSERVATION FROM KOROR, THAT SAW A 5MB DROP IN 24 HOURS TO
1003MB. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-
15KT) EASTERLY RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ROBUST WESTWARD AND
POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING AMPLE VENTILATION TO
THE CONVECTION, AND WARM (29-30C) ALONG-TRACK SST IN THE PHILIPPINE
SEA. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THIS SYSTEM.
B. TD 01W IS WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE STEADY
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 55KTS BY TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES CENTRAL PHILIPPINES.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 01W WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER LEYTE BY TAU 96
AND TRACK ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE ARCHIPELAGO, AND BY TAU 120, WILL BE
OVER THE ISLAND OF MINDORO, APPROXIMATELY 90NM SOUTH OF MANILA.
INTERACTION WITH THE ISLANDS WILL ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 30KTS BY
TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT AND EVENLY
SPREAD OUT; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL STORM
MOTION OF THIS DEVELOPING CYCLONE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FIRST JTWC TRACK FORECAST ON THIS SYSTEM.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

[cycloneye]

New peak at 60 kts.