SPAC: NIRAN - Post-Tropical

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aspen
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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone

#21 Postby aspen » Thu Mar 04, 2021 9:16 pm

There is a partial outer eyewall/outer rainband on microwave imagery from a few hours ago. However, IR is not showing any signs that an EWRC is imminent.
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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone

#22 Postby WAcyclone » Thu Mar 04, 2021 11:42 pm

Looks like SMAP got a decent pass at 835 UTC on the 4th with a derived 1-minute wind of 84.3 kt. Hopefully there will be another pass today as Niran continues to intensify.
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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone

#23 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Mar 05, 2021 12:01 am

New JTWC forecast has it peaking at 125kts
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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone

#24 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Mar 05, 2021 2:44 am

Cat 4
23P NIRAN 210305 0600 17.8S 156.8E SHEM 115 940
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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone

#25 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Mar 05, 2021 4:05 am

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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone

#26 Postby Subtrop » Fri Mar 05, 2021 4:42 am

JTWC: T7.0

TPPS10 PGTW 050919

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN)

B. 05/0850Z

C. 18.21S

D. 157.95E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD
A DT OF 7.0. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
05/0557Z 17.75S 156.82E SSMS
05/0630Z 17.82S 156.98E SSMS


MARTIN
Last edited by Subtrop on Thu Mar 11, 2021 7:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone

#27 Postby WAcyclone » Fri Mar 05, 2021 4:49 am

Unfortunately only a partial pass, but SMAP yielded 99.7 kt (1-minute) at 723 UTC today.

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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone

#28 Postby aspen » Fri Mar 05, 2021 6:19 am

Niran has become what Delta tried and failed to be: a small T#8.0 pinhole eye system. This is likely WAY stronger than 115 kt.
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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone

#29 Postby aspen » Fri Mar 05, 2021 7:44 am

This is insane.
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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone

#30 Postby Subtrop » Fri Mar 05, 2021 7:50 am

JTWC: Cat 5
23P NIRAN 210305 1200 18.8S 159.1E SHEM 140 917


BoM: Severe Tropical Cyclone Niran (Category 5)
FKAU05 ADRM 051246
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20210305/1200Z
TCAC: DARWIN
TC: NIRAN
ADVISORY NR: 2021/17
OBS PSN: 05/1200Z S1842 E15906
CB: WI 240NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL600
MOV: ESE 25KT
INTST CHANGE: NC
C: 931HPA
MAX WIND: 110KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 05/1800 S1954 E16112
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 110KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 06/0000 S2106 E16312
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 110KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 06/0600 S2224 E16536
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 100KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 06/1200 S2336 E16800
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 90KT
RMK: NIRAN MOVING OUT OF AUSTRALIAN AREA OF RESPONSIB
ILITY
NXT MSG: NO MSG EXP
Last edited by Subtrop on Thu Mar 11, 2021 7:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone

#31 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:15 am

OMG! :shocked!:

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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone

#32 Postby doomhaMwx » Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:25 am

On some satellite images, you can see the eye of TC Niran passing over an island in the Coral Sea, but interestingly, the island referred to as Sandy island actually doesn't exist. It still erroneously appears on some modern maps although long "undiscovered"

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... story.html
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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone

#33 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:33 am

Amazing storm
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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone

#34 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Mar 05, 2021 12:20 pm

What a monster... Third Cat 5 of the SHEM season. Not sure when that last happened, but I know its been awhile.
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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone

#35 Postby aspen » Fri Mar 05, 2021 1:51 pm

Didn’t take long; shear and/or foreword motion has caused the eye to collapse again. Since its peak didn’t last long, I don’t think Niran got to a ludicrous intensity like its nearly T#8.0 appearance suggested.
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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone

#36 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Mar 05, 2021 2:03 pm

Called it; already saw a wall of shear attacking it.
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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone

#37 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Mar 05, 2021 2:21 pm

aspen wrote:Didn’t take long; shear and/or foreword motion has caused the eye to collapse again. Since its peak didn’t last long, I don’t think Niran got to a ludicrous intensity like its nearly T#8.0 appearance suggested.

Yeah I think the 140kt estimate seemed pretty spot on
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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone

#38 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Mar 06, 2021 1:23 am

Lowest surface pressure recorded that I'm aware of is 971 hPa at NOUMEA (SYNOP: 91592) - March 6, 2021 5:00 UTC

LA TONTOUTA (SYNOP: 91590) bottomed to 974 hPa (4:00UTC)

Max Sustained Wind at given locations:

MOUE (METAR: NWWE SYNOP: 91596) - 69 kph (2021-03-06 06:00:00) / Max Gust - 124 kph (2021-03-06 06:00:00)
LA TONTOUTA (SYNOP: 91590) - 70kph (2021-03-06 06:00:00) / Max Gust - 143kph (2021-03-06 06:00:00)
KONE (SYNOP: 91578) - 46kph (2021-03-06 00:00:00) / Max Gust - 89 kph (2021-03-06 00:00:00)
NOUMEA (SYNOP: 91592) - 88 kph (2021-03-06 05:00:00)
KOUMAC (SYNOP: 91577) - 45 kph (2021-03-06 00:00:00)
TOUHO AEROD (SYNOP: 91586) - 62 kph (2021-03-06 00:00:00)
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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone

#39 Postby wxman57 » Sat Mar 06, 2021 9:49 am

Niran appears to be weakening VERY rapidly now. Has the look of a transitioning ET storm.
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