99P INVEST 210226 1200 13.5S 147.0E SHEM 15 0
SPAC: NIRAN - Post-Tropical
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SPAC: NIRAN - Post-Tropical
Last edited by Subtrop on Mon Mar 01, 2021 6:23 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 99P
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.7S 148.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 148.9E, APPROXIMATELY
184 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY, RADAR IMAGERY FROM WILLIS ISLAND, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, AND
A 271827Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD
THE COAST OF AUSTRALIA OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WITH STEADY
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
NEAR 15.7S 148.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 148.9E, APPROXIMATELY
184 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY, RADAR IMAGERY FROM WILLIS ISLAND, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, AND
A 271827Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD
THE COAST OF AUSTRALIA OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WITH STEADY
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: SPAC: 17U - Tropical Low
Tropical low 17U has a well defined low level circulation on satellite imagery,
with deep convection mostly confined to the southwestern quadrant. Confidence in
the position is good based on nearby surface observations and the morning ASCAT
pass, which depicts a broad circulation with the strongest winds [20 - 25 knots]
in the southern and western quadrants.
Dvorak analysis is based on a curved band pattern with an 0.35 wrap. DT is 2.0.
MET is 2.5 based on a 24 hour D trend, and PAT is also 2.5. Final T based on DT.
Intensity is analysed at 25 knots [10 minute mean], paying the ASCAT pass.
CIMSS satellite winds suggest that poleward outflow from the system is good.
However, equatorward outflow is somewhat supressed by northeasterlies from an
upper level anticyclone to the east, which is also responsible for the current
sheared appearance of the system. With this and the proximity to land being
mitigating factors, development is forecast below the standard rate for the next
48 hours. Beyond that, deep layer shear is forecast to ease and the system is
expected to reach category 3 intensity by late in the week, although well away
from the Queensland coast.
Tropical low 17U has been recently moving to the southwest, under the influence
of a mid-level steering ridge extending across the southern Coral Sea. This is
expected to continue in the short term, however overnight into Monday morning
the influence of this feature will wane as a mid-level trough approaches from
the west. The steering pattern will then become weak and variable for several
days, under the competing influences of mid-level westerlies to the north and a
new ridge building to the south. All guidance suggests, however, that a coastal
crossing is unlikely before a stronger upper trough captures the system late in
the week and steers it to the southeast out of the Australian area of
responsibility.
with deep convection mostly confined to the southwestern quadrant. Confidence in
the position is good based on nearby surface observations and the morning ASCAT
pass, which depicts a broad circulation with the strongest winds [20 - 25 knots]
in the southern and western quadrants.
Dvorak analysis is based on a curved band pattern with an 0.35 wrap. DT is 2.0.
MET is 2.5 based on a 24 hour D trend, and PAT is also 2.5. Final T based on DT.
Intensity is analysed at 25 knots [10 minute mean], paying the ASCAT pass.
CIMSS satellite winds suggest that poleward outflow from the system is good.
However, equatorward outflow is somewhat supressed by northeasterlies from an
upper level anticyclone to the east, which is also responsible for the current
sheared appearance of the system. With this and the proximity to land being
mitigating factors, development is forecast below the standard rate for the next
48 hours. Beyond that, deep layer shear is forecast to ease and the system is
expected to reach category 3 intensity by late in the week, although well away
from the Queensland coast.
Tropical low 17U has been recently moving to the southwest, under the influence
of a mid-level steering ridge extending across the southern Coral Sea. This is
expected to continue in the short term, however overnight into Monday morning
the influence of this feature will wane as a mid-level trough approaches from
the west. The steering pattern will then become weak and variable for several
days, under the competing influences of mid-level westerlies to the north and a
new ridge building to the south. All guidance suggests, however, that a coastal
crossing is unlikely before a stronger upper trough captures the system late in
the week and steers it to the southeast out of the Australian area of
responsibility.
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 99P
Most of the models are quite aggressive with 99P. Seems like it’s going to stall off of the NE Australian coast for a few days before heading in the direction of New Caledonia. Even the Euro shows a strong storm.
The 06z HWRF is one of the strongest I’ve ever seen, getting down to 898 mbar by 120 hrs
The 06z HWRF is one of the strongest I’ve ever seen, getting down to 898 mbar by 120 hrs
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Iceresistance
- Category 5
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Re: SPAC: Tropical Storm Niran (23P)
Now named "Niran"
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: SPAC: Niran - Tropical Cyclone
IDQ20008
SECURITE
OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1926 UTC 1 MARCH 2021
STORM FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA
SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Niran was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal five south (15.5S)
longitude one hundred and forty seven decimal four east (147.4E)
Recent movement : northeast at 8 knots
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 984 hPa
AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in NW quadrant.
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre easing to 60 knots by 1800 UTC 02
March.
Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre after 0600 UTC 02 March
with very rough seas and moderate swell.
Winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.
Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 02 March: Within 55 nautical miles of 15.3 south 147.8 east
Central pressure 987 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 02 March: Within 70 nautical miles of 15.3 south 147.9 east
Central pressure 979 hPa.
Winds to 60 knots near centre.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use email to
tcwc@bom.gov.au.
Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 02 March 2021.
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
SECURITE
OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1926 UTC 1 MARCH 2021
STORM FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA
SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Niran was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal five south (15.5S)
longitude one hundred and forty seven decimal four east (147.4E)
Recent movement : northeast at 8 knots
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 984 hPa
AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in NW quadrant.
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre easing to 60 knots by 1800 UTC 02
March.
Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre after 0600 UTC 02 March
with very rough seas and moderate swell.
Winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.
Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 02 March: Within 55 nautical miles of 15.3 south 147.8 east
Central pressure 987 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 02 March: Within 70 nautical miles of 15.3 south 147.9 east
Central pressure 979 hPa.
Winds to 60 knots near centre.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use email to
tcwc@bom.gov.au.
Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 02 March 2021.
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone
While Niran is struggling with shear, microwave is showing an eye-like feature trying to develop. Maybe this is a strong displaced MLC.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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mrbagyo
- Category 5
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- Contact:
Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone
It’s got a well-defined eyewall now. Niran might be about to bomb out.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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cycloneye
- Admin
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Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone
A good looking Cat 1/2 storm. It’ll probably be another SHem major, although likely nowhere close to the HWRF’s crazy sub-900 run from the other day.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone
Niran just got Delta’d — shear blew apart the compact core, and it dropped from 95 kt to 85 kt.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
-
Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8911
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone
JTWC has this at 100 mph, may make a run to a CAT 4 storm . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone
It appears that Niran has reformed its eyewall.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone
Oh my...this is looking a lot like Delta during its ERI phase.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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ElectricStorm
- Category 5
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- Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK
Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone
aspen wrote:Oh my...this is looking a lot like Delta during its ERI phase.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2021sh23/4kmsrbdc/2021sh23_4kmsrbdc_202103042110.jpg
This storm is reverse Delta... Torn apart, then ERI
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
Boomer Sooner!
Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone
The eye has been rapidly warming.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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ElectricStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 4530
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- Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK
Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone
Um yeah this is RIing
23P NIRAN 210305 0000 16.4S 154.2E SHEM 110 944
23P NIRAN 210305 0000 16.4S 154.2E SHEM 110 944
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
Boomer Sooner!
Re: SPAC: NIRAN - Tropical Cyclone
Weather Dude wrote:Um yeah this is RIing
23P NIRAN 210305 0000 16.4S 154.2E SHEM 110 944
It might be a little stronger, but Niran is very similar to Delta when recon found a high end Cat 3/low end Cat 4.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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