SIO: HABANA - Post-Tropical

[Subtrop]

90S INVEST 210301 1800 15.0S 65.0E SHEM 15 0

[Nancy Smar]

In the center of the basin, south-east of Agalega archipelago:

The partial ASCAT swaths of 0402UTC and 0517UTC only allow to locate a large circulation in this area, around 13.2S/61.4E, within the MT. The lack of convergence of low layers on the polar side continues to affect the cyclogenesis process. However, the main available models continue to present this zone as a potential area for cyclogenesis with an intensification that remains limited, due to the degradation of environmental conditions during the week (dry air at the southern and western edge of the system).

The risk of formation of a moderate tropical storm South-East of Agalega becomes moderate from Thursday onwards.

[Nancy Smar]

The tropical depression which was evolving to the ENE of the Mascarenes has intensified into a Moderate tropical storm during the day and was named 'HABANA'. It is expected to track in a general ESEly direction while intensifying.

[Iceresistance]

JTWC Warning #1 for Tropical Storm Habana

[ElectricStorm]

Holy crap... that's a 35kt increase since the last update...
24S HABANA 210305 0600 16.4S 75.5E SHEM 90 972

[aspen]

Holy crap... that's a 35kt increase since the last update...
24S HABANA 210305 0600 16.4S 75.5E SHEM 90 972

Well that exploded out of nowhere.

[Homie J]

Out of nowhere it now has WMG eye with B ring.

[Subtrop]

JTWC: Cat 4

24S HABANA 210305 1200 16.3S 76.3E SHEM 115 948

MFR: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

FKIO20 FMEE 051219
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20210305/1219Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: HABANA
ADVISORY NR: 2021/05
OBS PSN: 05/1200Z S1616 E07624
CB: WI 250NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL515
MOV: E 09KT
INTST CHANGE: INTSF
C: 967HPA
MAX WIND: 100KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 05/1800Z S1611 E07648
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 105KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 06/0000Z S1606 E07713
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 110KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 06/0600Z S1601 E07742
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 105KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 06/1200Z S1558 E07812
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 100KT
RMK: NIL.
NXT MSG: 20210305/1800Z=

[aspen]

Wow, a Cat 4....this has FAR exceeded any model forecast, even the HWRF, which predicted sub-920s for Niran.

[mrbagyo]

wow, eye temp reached 20°C earlier
2021MAR05 130000 5.7 953.8 107.2 5.7 6.1 6.7 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.74 -73.70 EYE 16 IR 61.1 -16.26 -76.51 ARCHER MSG1 44.2

[aspen]

Don’t tell me you’re trying to become a Cat 5 too.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Wow really clearing the eye. However cloud tops are not very cold.

[aspen]

120 kt and 945 mbar...talk about an over-achiever.

[doomhaMwx]

JTWC now has Habana as a 120kt C4 from merely a 45kt TS 24hrs ago.

24S HABANA 210305 1800 16.1S 77.1E SHEM 120 945

(Satellite loop 03/04 18Z - 03/05 18Z)

[aspen]

JTWC now has Habana as a 120kt C4 from merely a 45kt TS 24hrs ago.

24S HABANA 210305 1800 16.1S 77.1E SHEM 120 945

(Satellite loop 03/04 18Z - 03/05 18Z)
https://i.imgur.com/n7AxnOn.gif

That’s +90 mph in just 24 hours, easily among the more extreme phases of RI I’ve seen in the last several years. Only storms like Patricia, Hagibis, Amphan, Delta, and Goni matched or exceeded Havana’s ERI phase.

[aspen]

Habana might be starting an EWRC soon. However, if the last days of model runs are correct, the system will meander in the South Indian Ocean for potentially up to a week or more, with the opportunity to re-intensify. Habana might be one of the first big ACE makers of the year.

[Meteophile]

 https://twitter.com/Meteophile1/status/1368088692200534016

[mrbagyo]

24S HABANA 210306 0600 16.2S 78.0E SHEM 125 935

[WAcyclone]

Looks like SMAP estimated 113.6 kt (1-minute) at 0047 UTC 2021-03-06.

[mrbagyo]

looks like it's undergoing EWRC

PS: there's a naked eddy west of Habana