SIO: SEROJA - Post-Tropical

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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#61 Postby JW-_- » Fri Apr 09, 2021 5:21 am

Image

likely to have a large expanding windfield when the system starts transiting to extratropical. I suspect it will happen when this system is around the 24S latitude.
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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#62 Postby JW-_- » Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:23 am

aspen wrote:A rare bust for the HWRF. Seroja has taken longer to recover than expected and has been very broad, so it will likely not hit the high end Cat 4 intensity the HWRF was forecasting for days. A major isn’t very likely anymore either.


Was still exceptionally bullish with the 00z run.
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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#63 Postby WAcyclone » Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:57 am

Looks like significant strengthening is finally starting:

Image

The latest forecast from the BOM which was just released shows Seroja making landfall right at Geraldton (population ca. 38k):

Image
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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#64 Postby JW-_- » Fri Apr 09, 2021 6:25 pm

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1940 UTC 09/04/2021
Name: Tropical Cyclone Seroja
Identifier: 22U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 20.5S
Longitude: 108.4E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [233 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 982 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS SST: D1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 10/0000: 20.9S 108.2E: 040 [080]: 055 [100]: 977
+12: 10/0600: 21.3S 108.2E: 055 [100]: 060 [110]: 975
+18: 10/1200: 21.9S 108.6E: 060 [115]: 065 [120]: 973
+24: 10/1800: 22.9S 109.3E: 065 [120]: 065 [120]: 973
+36: 11/0600: 25.8S 111.6E: 080 [145]: 060 [110]: 978
+48: 11/1800: 29.4S 115.9E: 115 [215]: 045 [085]: 989
+60: 12/0600: 33.3S 122.4E: 185 [340]: 030 [055]: 998
+72: 12/1800: : : :
+96: 13/1800: : : :
+120: 14/1800: : : :
REMARKS:
Seroja continues to show convection wrapping around the centre, though deep
convection is confined to the northern quadrants and has shown some warming
since 1600UTC. There is good confidence in the position of the system with a
recent microwave pass.

Dvorak analysis: FT/CI=3.5 based on DT=3.5 from curved band pattern [around 0.8
wrap], consistent with PAT. Final ADT T numbers are 3.5 [NESDIS & CIMSS].
SATCON shows intensity at 53 knots [1-min mean] at 1416 UTC. Intensity remains
at 50 knots.

The system currently lies in low 10 knot NE'ly shear [CIMSS 1800UTC], with a
moist low to mid-level environment and warm sea surface temperatures [28-29 deg]
and Intensification should continue during Saturday as it remains in a similar
one.

A poleward outflow channel is becoming evident on satellite imagery and should
continue during today as an upper trough approaches to the west of the system.
Thus there is the potential for Seroja to reach category 3 intensity in 18 to 24
hours . The intensification process of Seroja may be complicated or enhanced by
the close proximity of TC Odette on Saturday. It is expected to weaken somewhat
before reaching the coast due to the high shear environment south of 25S.

Tropical cyclone Seroja and slowed down in its southwest track and should start
to turn southward later this morning. Later Saturday it will turn to the
southeast and accelerate on Sunday due to an approaching mid-latitude trough
from the west before making landfall during late Sunday or early Monday between
Carnarvon and Jurien Bay, an area not accustomed to tropical cyclones making
impacts more significant.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 10/0130 UTC.





.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................


Image

TXXS21 KNES 091814
TCSSIO
A. 26S (SEROJA)
B. 09/1730Z
C. 20.8S
D. 108.0E
E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T4.0/4.0
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. THE
LLCC WAS EMBEDDED IN DARK GREY WHICH YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. THE MET EQUALS
A 4.5 DUE TO A DEVELOPING TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT REMAINS
AT 4.0. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LLCC POSITION
AND AN ADJUSTMENT TO THE MET WAS MADE TO OBTAIN THE PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...COVERDALE

Image


Image



26S SEROJA 210409 1800 20.3S 108.5E SHEM 60 982


I'm in a different time zone.



Image
https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
Probability of being 64kts @+ 36hrs





Image
Last edited by JW-_- on Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#65 Postby JW-_- » Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:14 pm

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0133 UTC 10/04/2021
Name: Tropical Cyclone Seroja
Identifier: 22U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 20.7S
Longitude: 108.1E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [212 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 979 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 155 nm [285 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 10/0600: 21.1S 108.2E: 045 [080]: 060 [110]: 975
+12: 10/1200: 21.8S 108.6E: 055 [100]: 065 [120]: 973
+18: 10/1800: 22.7S 109.2E: 060 [110]: 065 [120]: 973
+24: 11/0000: 24.1S 110.2E: 065 [120]: 060 [110]: 975
+36: 11/1200: 27.4S 113.4E: 085 [155]: 055 [100]: 983
+48: 12/0000: 31.2S 118.9E: 105 [195]: 035 [065]: 994
+60: 12/1200: 35.1S 125.8E: 130 [240]: 030 [055]: 998
+72: 13/0000: : : :
+96: 14/0000: : : :
+120: 15/0000: : : :
REMARKS:
Seroja has slowed and appears to be turning towards the south. Position based on
microwave passes at 2120Z and animated IR imagery. Microwave gave a high
confidence fix. Location confidence at 00Z rated fair.

Dvorak analysis based on curved band wrap of 0.9 yielding a DT of 3.5. MET is
3.5 and PAT is 4.0. FT and CI are set to 4.0. ADT has CI of just 3.1 with FT of
3.6, while SATCON was 59 knots [1-min] at 18Z based with the AMSU pass at 14Z
seemingly high at 73 knots 1-min. Final intensity estimate is set to 55 knots.

Shear is analysed at around 15 knots from the east.
Microwave shows improving structure in Seroja as shear has decreased and dry air
is no longer being ingested. SSTs remain high along the track. Further
intensification during Saturday may see Seroja reach Category 3 briefly before
wakening as it accelerates towards the coast and shear increases.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 10/0730 UTC.


IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued at 8:58 am WST on Saturday 10 April 2021

Headline:
Weather conditions will change rapidly near the west coast on Sunday as Seroja accelerates into the coast between Carnarvon and Jurien Bay.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
Coral Bay to Lancelin, and extending inland to parts fo the southern Gascoyne, northern Wheatbelt and parts of the Goldfields. The Watch area includes Carnarvon, Denham, Kalbarri, Geraldton, Mt Magnet, Southern Cross and Kalgoorlie.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Seroja at 8:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 100 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 140 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 45 kilometres of 20.7 degrees South 108.1 degrees East, estimated to be 640 kilometres west northwest of Exmouth and 990 kilometres northwest of Kalbarri.

Movement: south southwest at 7 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja has slowed and is beginning to turn towards the coast.

Seroja will continue to intensify today as it begins to move south possibly reaching Severe Category 3 tonight. During Sunday the system will accelerate towards the coast weakening back to Category 2 intensity as it approaches the central west coast.

The cyclone should gradually weaken as it moves inland on Monday but is still likely to be causing gusty winds east and north of the track as it crosses over the south of the state.

Hazards:
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are likely to develop in an area between Coral Bay and Kalbarri during Sunday afternoon and extend further south towards Lancelin and inland into the Gascoyne and northern Wheatbelt later Sunday and then further inland to the southern Goldfields during Monday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour are forecast to occur closer to the centre of Seroja as it moves across the coast and into adjacent inland parts.The most likely area to experience destructive wind gusts is on the coast between Geraldton and Denham.

Seroja will be moving fast, so weather conditions will deteriorate rapidly as it approaches.

HEAVY TO INTENSE RAINFALL and FLASH FLOODING are likely close to the track of Seroja during Sunday and Monday.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause minor inundation at the coast between Coral Bay and Lancelin, increasing to SERIOUS FLOODING in the Denham and Shark Bay region and possibly near Kalbarri.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises of the following community alerts:

BLUE ALERT: People near Coral Bay to Lancelin, not including Coral Bay, but including Lancelin need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

People needing SES assistance can call 132 500. In a life-threatening situation call 000. For more safety tips visit http://www.emergency.wa.gov.au

Communities between Coral Bay and Lancelin should listen for the next advice.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm AWST Saturday 10 April.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone



Image


IDW23100

40:2:2:24:21S108E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0103 UTC 10 APRIL 2021

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone Seroja was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude twenty decimal seven south (20.7S)
longitude one hundred and eight decimal one east (108.1E)
Recent movement : south southwest at 4 knots
Maximum winds : 55 knots
Central pressure: 979 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 55 knots near the centre increasing to 65 knots by 1200 UTC 10
April.

Winds above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre from 1200 UTC 10 April
with high seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 45 nautical miles of centre with very rough seas
and heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles of centre, extending to be within
100 nautical miles in the eastern quadrants by 0600 UTC 10 April with very
rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 10 April: Within 55 nautical miles of 21.8 south 108.6 east
Central pressure 973 hPa.
Winds to 65 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 11 April: Within 65 nautical miles of 24.1 south 110.2 east
Central pressure 975 hPa.
Winds to 60 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 10 April 2021.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#66 Postby JW-_- » Sat Apr 10, 2021 2:13 am

00z EC thinking.
Image

Image

Moves the system over a distance very quickly.


Image
GFS 00z
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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#67 Postby JW-_- » Sat Apr 10, 2021 6:30 pm

Tropical Cyclone Seroja 2021
Last Modified: 15:00 April 11, 2021 UTC

Cyclone Seroja 2021Seroja 2021
Seroja is located 472 km (255 nautical miles) west of Learmonth, Australia, and has moved southeastward at 19 km/h (10 knots) over the past 6 hours.

Infrared imagery shows consolidated core convection associated with a strong poleward outflow channel. A microwave image shows a symmetric eyewall surrounding a 65 km (35 nautical miles) eye feature with deep convective banding over the northern semicircle. This image along with the image supports the initial position with good confidence.

Seroja is expected to accelerate southeastward through the forecast period within the midlatitude westerly flow poleward of a deep-layered subtropical ridge positioned to the northeast.

The system will begin extra-tropical transition (ETT) in around 12 hours and will quickly complete ETT by 36 hours as it becomes embedded within the westerlies and gains frontal characteristics.

Seroja will weaken steadily after 12 hours as it encounters strong wind shear (25-35 knots) and tracks over southwestern Australia.

Maximum significant wave height is 8.2 meters (27 feet).

Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).
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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#68 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 10, 2021 7:02 pm

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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#69 Postby JW-_- » Sat Apr 10, 2021 7:22 pm

Image

Image
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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#70 Postby JW-_- » Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:02 pm

When it does come ashore random tornado spin-ups within the bands may pose extra problems for some. Not the type that is seen in the usa.
But usually strong enough to peel a roof off and lift and throw a trampoline in the yard unsecured into weird places.
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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#71 Postby JW-_- » Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:07 pm

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued at 9:03 am WST on Sunday 11 April 2021

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Seroja to bring dangerous weather to the west coast from Sunday afternoon extending through the midwest in the evening.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Minilya Roadhouse to Lancelin along the coast, extending to inland areas including Mount Magnet, Paynes Find, Dalwallinu, Merredin and Southern Cross.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
None

Details of Tropical Cyclone Seroja at 8:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 24.3 degrees South 110.5 degrees East, estimated to be 355 kilometres west northwest of Denham and 530 kilometres northwest of Kalbarri.

Movement: south southeast at 31 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja is moving rapidly towards the southeast, approaching the west coast of WA and will begin impacting coastal communties this afternoon.

Seroja is expected to intensify a little during Sunday, possibly reaching Severe Category 3 intensity as it accelerates southeastwards towards the coast. It is likely weaken to Category 2 prior to crossing the coast, though a Severe Category 3 impact remains a slight risk. Significant impacts are expected to extend well inland from the coast through to Wheat Belt communities during Sunday night.

The cyclone will weaken as it moves inland on Monday but is still likely to result in damaging wind gusts, particularly to the north and east of the track, and heavy rain close to the track, as it moves through the eastern Wheat Belt, southern Goldfields and South East Coastal district.

Hazards:
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are likely to develop in an area between Minilya Roadhouse and Kalbarri during Sunday afternoon. Gales will extend inland into the southern Gascoyne and northern Wheatbelt overnight.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour are forecast to occur close to the centre of Seroja as it moves across the coast and into adjacent inland parts. The most likely area to experience destructive wind gusts is on the coast from Denham to Geraldton; however destructive gusts above 125 kilometres per hour may extend inland as far as a line from Dalwallinu to Paynes Find.

People near Denham may see GALES as early as midday on Sunday, and may experience DESTRUCTIVE winds for a period after 3 pm.

People near Kalbarri may see GALES as early as 4 pm and are likely to experience DESTRUCTIVE winds from 6 pm (more likely around 7 pm).

People near Gerladton may see GALES as early as 6 pm and are likely to experience a brief period of DESTRUCTVE winds around 9 pm. If the track shifts a little south from the current forecast, Geraldton will experience a longer period of more intense winds.

Seroja will be moving fast, so weather conditions will deteriorate rapidly as it approaches.

HEAVY TO INTENSE RAINFALL and FLASH FLOODING are likely close to the track of Seroja during Sunday and Monday.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause minor inundation at the coast between Coral Bay and Lancelin, increasing to SERIOUS FLOODING in the Denham and Shark Bay region and near Kalbarri. Dangerous surf and beach erosion is expected between Denham and Geraldton.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises of the following community alerts effective as of 9:00 AM Sunday 11th April 2021

RED ALERT: People in or near Carnarvon to Kalbarri, not including the Carnarvon and Kalbarri townsites need to go to shelter immediately.

YELLOW ALERT: People in or near Minilya Roadhouse to Carnarvon inclusive, and from Kalbarri to Lancelin inclusive, and extending inland to include the Shires of Northampton, Chapman Valley, Morawa, Greater Geraldton, Mingenew, Three Springs, Perenjori, and the townsites of Mullewa, Coorow and Carnamah need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.

ALL CLEAR: People in communities Coral Bay to Minilya Roadhouse are advised that wind and storm surge dangers have passed.

People needing SES assistance can call 132 500. In a life-threatening situation call 000. For more safety tips visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au

Communities within the Red and Yellow Alert areas above should listen for the next advice.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm AWST Sunday 11 April.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

WARNINGS



Issued at 6:00 am AWST Sunday 11 April 2021. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 11.

Image
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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#72 Postby JW-_- » Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:51 pm

Image




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EC 18z forecast.
Last edited by JW-_- on Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:25 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#73 Postby JW-_- » Sat Apr 10, 2021 9:20 pm

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0109 UTC 11/04/2021
Name: Tropical Cyclone Seroja
Identifier: 22U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 24.3S
Longitude: 110.5E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [150 deg]
Speed of Movement: 17 knots [31 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots [110 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Central Pressure: 975 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 11/0600: 25.9S 111.9E: 045 [085]: 065 [120]: 971
+12: 11/1200: 27.7S 113.8E: 050 [095]: 060 [110]: 976
+18: 11/1800: 29.8S 116.4E: 060 [110]: 050 [095]: 984
+24: 12/0000: 32.0S 119.7E: 065 [120]: 035 [065]: 991
+36: 12/1200: 36.4S 126.8E: 080 [155]: 030 [055]: 993
+48: 13/0000: : : :
+60: 13/1200: : : :
+72: 14/0000: : : :
+96: 15/0000: : : :
+120: 16/0000: : : :
REMARKS:
Current position of Tropical Cyclone Seroja accuracy is good given microwave
imagery at 21UTC and brief appearance of an eye. It is on the very edge of radar
coverage, and this should assist with locating the system over the next few
hours.

The brief emergence of an eye resulted in a data-T of 4.0 [4.5 modified down to
4.0 due to ragged eye]. MET is 4.5 based on a D- trend, with PAT set to 4.0. FT
and CI remain at 4.0. ADT is 3.0 [CIMSS] and 3.5 [NESDIS], noting that NESDIS
raw spiked to 5.0 when it identified an eye. SATCON has not updated recently.
Intensity set at 60kt [10-minute]. A SMAP pass at 2218UTC identified strongest
winds to the east, possibly peaking to 65 knots.

TC Seroja is being steered towards the southeast by a mid-level high to the
northeast and an approaching mid-latitude trough to the southwest and is
expected to make landfall on the west coast of Western Australia later today.

CIMSS shear analysis at 21Z has continued to ease, indicating Seroja lying in an
area of 5 to 10 knots. There are no significant outflow channels evident on
satellite imagery and CIMSS analysis is indicating only fair upper divergence
over the system. However, good outflow channels are evident in upper level winds
to the south of the system which may aid in system development as it approaches
the coast. It is forecast to reach Category 3 intensity for a period today, in
part aided by the rapid translation speed, enhancing the northeast quadrant wind
field. Seroja is forecast to weaken to a Category 2 system prior to crossing the
coast, however a Category 3 impact cannot be ruled out, particularly to the
north of the coastal crossing location.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 11/0730 UTC.







............................................................................................................................................................................................................................
[



Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Marine Wind Warning Summary for Western Australia

Issued at 10:05 AM WST on Sunday 11 April 2021
for the period until midnight WST Monday 12 April 2021

Wind Warnings for Sunday 11 April
Hurricane Force Wind Warning for the following areas:
Gascoyne Coast
Storm Force Wind Warning for the following areas:
Ningaloo Coast and Geraldton Coast
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Pilbara Coast West, Albany Coast, Esperance Coast and Eucla Coast

Wind Warnings for Monday 12 April
Storm Force Wind Warning for the following areas:
Geraldton Coast
Gale Warning for the following areas:
Gascoyne Coast, Lancelin Coast, Leeuwin Coast, Esperance Coast and Eucla Coast
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Perth Local Waters, Perth Coast, Bunbury Geographe Coast and Albany Coast

The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 4:00 pm WST Sunday.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, Western Australia
This Flood Watch provides early advice of possible flooding within the specified catchments.

Flood Watch For The Wooramel, Murchison,Greenough,Yarra Yarra Lakes, Moore, Hill And Parts Of The Salt Lake District And Avon River Catchments.
Issued at 10:59 AM WST on Sunday 11 April 2021
Flood Watch Number: 3
RAPID FLOODING MAY DEVELOP IN THE WOORAMEL, MURCHISON,GREENOUGH, MOORE HILL, YARRA YARRA LAKES, AVON, MOORE, HILL AND PARTS OF THE SALT LAKE DISTRICT RIVER CATCHMENTS FROM CYCLONE SEROJA

Tropical Cyclone Seroja is moving rapidly towards the southeast, approaching the west coast of WA and will begin impacting coastal communities Sunday afternoon. Intense rainfall is expected close to the track of Seroja during Sunday and Monday.
No significant rainfall recorded in the flood watch catchments during the 24 hours to 9:00 am Sunday.
As Seroja makes landfall during Sunday, rainfall of 50 - 80 mm with isolated falls to 100mm are expected in the Wooramel and Murchison River catchment.
Coastal areas in the Greenough may receive falls of 50 - 80 mm with isolated rainfall totals up to 100mm during Sunday and further falls of 30 - 50 mm with isolated falls of up to 80mm during Monday.
Rainfall totals of 50 - 80 mm with isolated totals up to 100mm are expected over parts of Yarra Yarra Lakes District, Moore, Hill, Salt Lake District and northern Avon River catchments during Sunday into Monday.
Rapid and flash flooding of low lying areas and river rises are expected. Many roads, and possibly primary and secondary highways, may be affected. Some communities and homesteads may become isolated.
Check road conditions before travelling and NEVER drive into flood waters.

Catchments likely to be affected include:
Wooramel River
Murchison River
Greenough River
Yarra Yarra Lakes District
Moore and Hill Rivers
Avon River
Salt Lakes District Rivers

This flood watch is available by dialling 1300 659 213. For more information on the Flood Watch Service visit http://www.bom.gov.au/water/floods/floo ... ices.shtml

Flood Safety Advice:
Current river levels are available from Department of Water and Environmental Regulation at http://www.water.wa.gov.au/maps-and-dat ... monitoring
DFES advises people and communities to be aware that flooding is possible and be prepared to relocate equipment and livestock. Watch water levels. Travellers need to be aware that road conditions may be adversely affected and travel plans may need to be reconsidered. Do not drive into water of unknown depth and velocity.
Community information is available from DFES at http://www.dfes.wa.gov.au}

Next issue:
The next Flood Watch will be issued by 12:00 pm WST on Monday 12 April 2021.


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Nothing more to add atm it's just watching and see how the forecasts pan out in real-time.
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Last edited by JW-_- on Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SIO:Severe TC Seroja

#74 Postby JW-_- » Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:20 pm

Upgraded

Issued at 12:05 pm AWST Sunday 11 April 2021.
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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#75 Postby JW-_- » Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:10 am

Image
Storm apperance now is sheared.
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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#76 Postby JW-_- » Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:36 am

WTXS31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/ REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 25.1S 111.4E.
11APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
229 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING AROUND A WEAK, FORMATIVE EYE. A 102111Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE
NORTH QUADRANT. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 (65 KNOTS) TO T4.5
(77 KNOTS). TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW POLEWARD OF
A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.[THE
SYSTEM HAS COMMENCED EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND WILL
QUICKLY COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 24AS
IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. TC 26S WILL WEAKEN
RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 12 AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG VWS (25-35 KNOTS) AND
TRACKS OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 110000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z AND
112100Z.//
NNNN
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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#77 Postby JW-_- » Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:38 am

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Sun 18:50 WST
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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#78 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 11, 2021 6:49 am

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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#79 Postby WAcyclone » Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:51 am

Contrary to the forecasts, Seroja strengthened and even cleared an eye right before making landfall as a Category 3 (oz scale) south of Kalbarri. Highest wind gust was 92 kt with some unverified reports of well over 100 kt. Significant damage is being reported from Kalbarri and Northampton, including lost roofs. Very few houses are built to cyclone safety standards this far south. Power is out in all of Kalbarri, Northampton and Geraldton.

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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#80 Postby JW-_- » Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:30 pm

:uarrow: Yeah I should have just left it to you guys and the pro's.. :oops:
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