SIO: ODETTE - Post-Tropical

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90S INVEST 210401 0000 8.0S 102.5E SHEM 15 0

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WTXS22 PGTW 040800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031351Z APR 21//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4S 104.8E TO 15.8S 107.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 040600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.8S 105.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.8S 102.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 105.2E, APPROXIMATELY
203 NM SOUTH OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 040634Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
TIGHTLY WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST. THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
REMAINS VERY ASYMMETRIC WITH VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 040246Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALS A HIGHLY
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH ENHANCED (25 TO 30 KNOT) WINDS TURNING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ELONGATED LLCC AND WEAKER (5 TO 10
KNOT) WINDS CONSIGNED TO THE NORTH. 90S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5
TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW;
HOWEVER, THE HIGH TRACK SPEEDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OFFSETTING THE
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S
WILL REMAIN ELONGATED AND ASYMMETRIC AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND
INTENSIFIES, REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050800Z.
4. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 031400) FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 123.8E.//
NNNN

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SH, 27, 2021040418, , BEST, 0, 149S, 1048E, 35, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 45, 40, 0, 1007, 180, 45, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, TWENTYSEVE, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED, shF02021 to sh272021,

[mrbagyo]

[Iceresistance]

JTWC has this being absorbed into Seroja

[aspen]

According to the 00z best track, 27S is now stronger than Seroja. Will it become the victor of this Fujiwhara interaction, or will Seroja win as previously forecast?

[Subtrop]

IDW23100

40:2:2:24:19S110E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0108 UTC 9 APRIL 2021

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone Seroja was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude nineteen decimal zero south (19.0S)
longitude one hundred and ten decimal zero east (110.0E)
Recent movement : southwest at 10 knots
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 993 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 80 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre increasing to 55 knots by 0000 UTC 10
April.

Winds above 48 knots developing within 30 nautical miles of centre by 1800 UTC
09 April with very rough seas and heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 80 nautical miles of centre with very rough seas
and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 09 April: Within 55 nautical miles of 19.8 south 108.9 east
Central pressure 988 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 10 April: Within 70 nautical miles of 20.4 south 108.1 east
Central pressure 980 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 09 April 2021.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

[JW-_-]

IDW24010
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:23 am WST on Saturday 10 April 2021

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Odette was located at 8:00 am AWST near 18.9S 112.8E,that
is 365 km north northwest of Exmouth and 485 km north northwest of Coral Bay
and moving south southeast at 35 kilometres per hour.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Odette is moving rapidly to the south and forecast to
remain off the northwest coast. By Sunday the system is likely to have
dissipated over waters west of the Gascoyne coast.

DAMAGING WINDS with gusts in excess of 90 kilometres per hour may develop
between Exmouth and Coral Bay during this afternoon and evening. Refer to
Severe Weather Warning for details.

Although rainfall is expected to increase for a period today about the west
Pilbara coast, significant rainfall totals and flash flooding are not expected.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3:00 pm AWST.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Odette
Issued at 8:25 am AWST Saturday 10 April 2021. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.