ATL: CLAUDETTE - Advisories

[cycloneye]

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021
2100 UTC THU JUN 17 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST
FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY...LOUISIANA...TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 92.4W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 92.4W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 92.4W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 24.5N 92.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 26.5N 92.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 29.0N 92.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 31.5N 89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 34.0N 87.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 35.0N 84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 92.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 18/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 92.4W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf Coast from
Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border,
including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New
Orleans.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor
the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
22.9 North, longitude 92.4 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion with some increase in
forward speed is expected for the next day or so. On the
forecast track, the system will approach the north-central
Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday. A northeastward motion
across the southeastern United States is likely after landfall.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast tonight and Friday.

A subtropical or tropical depression or storm is likely to form
over the west-central Gulf of Mexico tonight or early Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and
WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of 8
inches across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Rainfall totals of
4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are
possible beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend from
the Central Gulf coast northeastward into the Southern Appalachians.
This will likely produce areas of flash, urban, and small stream
flooding as well as minor to isolated moderate river flooding with
new and renewed rises on already elevated rivers.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Intracoastal City, LA to MS/AL Border...2-3 ft
Vermilion Bay and Lake Borgne...2-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft
Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area on Friday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

TORNADOES: The threat for a couple tornadoes should begin Friday
afternoon across coastal Louisiana. This threat should expand
northward across southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi, and
southwest Alabama on Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

Visible satellite images show that the cloud pattern associated with
the broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is gradually becoming better organized. Deep convection is
beginning to form a broad curved band over the eastern portion of
the system, similar to what one might see in a developing
subtropical cyclone. Although the upper-level winds are not
particularly favorable for development, with lots of westerly shear
over the area, the global models do suggest tropical/subtropical
cyclogenesis within the next 12 hours or so. Given the proximity of
the disturbance to land, which requires tropical storm warnings at
this time, advisories are being initiated on this system as a
potential tropical cyclone.

Earlier scatterometer data suggested that the circulation was still
rather broad. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is currently
investigating the system and has not yet found a well-defined
center. Maximum winds based on surface observations and the
scatterometer pass are near 25 kt. Numerical intensity guidance do
not indicate a great deal of strengthening before the system
reaches the coastline, and the official forecast is at the high end
of the guidance.

Since the center is not that well-defined at this time, the initial
motion estimate, 360/8 is quite uncertain. The system is expected
to move northward into a weakness in the subtropical ridge for the
next day or so and then, after landfall along the central Gulf
Coast, turn toward the northeast on the northwest side of a
mid-level anticyclone near Florida. The official track forecast is
closest to the GFS and ECMWF predictions. It should be noted,
however, that these models suggest some reformation of the center
near the Louisiana coast rather than just motion from the southwest
Gulf to the expected coastal landfall point.

Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users
should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and
wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center and arrive
well in advance of landfall.

Key Messages:

1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall and considerable
flash, urban, and small stream flooding beginning Friday and
continuing through the weekend along the central Gulf coast and
spreading northeastward into the Southern Appalachians.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin Friday in areas
near and well to the east of the center along portions of the
central Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the
Alabama/Florida border, including New Orleans.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 22.9N 92.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 18/0600Z 24.5N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 18/1800Z 26.5N 92.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 29.0N 92.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 31.5N 89.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 20/0600Z 34.0N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 20/1800Z 35.0N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Brennan

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
700 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 92.3W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor
the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
23.2 North, longitude 92.3 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion with some increase in
forward speed is expected for the next day or so. On the forecast
track, the system will approach the north-central Gulf Coast late
Friday or early Saturday. A northeastward motion across the
southeastern United States is likely after landfall.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast tonight and Friday.

A subtropical or tropical depression or storm is likely to form
over the west-central Gulf of Mexico tonight or early Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter data and surface observations is 1007 mb (29.74
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and
WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of 8
inches across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Rainfall totals of
4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are
possible beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend from
the Central Gulf coast northeastward into the Southern Appalachians.
This will likely produce areas of flash, urban, and small stream
flooding as well as minor to isolated moderate river flooding with
new and renewed rises on already elevated rivers.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Intracoastal City, LA to MS/AL Border...2-3 ft
Vermilion Bay and Lake Borgne...2-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft
Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area on Friday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

TORNADOES: The threat for a couple tornadoes should begin Friday
afternoon across coastal Louisiana. This threat should expand
northward across southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi, and
southwest Alabama on Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

...THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AS IT
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 92.2W
ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 23.5 North, longitude 92.2 West. The system is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion with some
increase in forward speed is expected for the next day or so. On
the forecast track, the system will approach the north-central Gulf
Coast late Friday or early Saturday. A northeastward motion across
the southeastern United States is likely after landfall.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast Friday and Friday night. A
subtropical or tropical depression or storm is likely to form
over the west-central or northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and
WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of 8
inches across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Rainfall totals of
4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are
possible beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend from
along the Central Gulf coast, northeastward into the southern
Appalachians. This will likely produce areas of flash, urban and
small stream flooding as well as minor to isolated moderate river
flooding with new and renewed rises on already elevated rivers.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Intracoastal City, LA to MS/AL Border...2-3 ft
Vermilion Bay and Lake Borgne...2-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft
Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area on Friday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

TORNADOES: The threat for a couple of tornadoes is expected to
begin Friday afternoon across coastal Louisiana. This threat should
expand northward across southern portions of Louisiana and
Mississippi, and southwest Alabama Friday night into Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

Satellite imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that the low pressure area over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico has changed little in organization
during the past several hours, and the associated convection lies
well to the east of the broad and poorly defined center. The
initial intensity will be held at 25 kt based partially on ship
reports from the northeastern and northern parts of the system.

Due to the poorly defined center, the initial motion is a highly
uncertain 360/8. The system should move generally northward for
the next 24-36 h to a position near the coast of Louisiana,
followed by a motion toward the northeast across the southeastern
United States as it moves through a weakness in the subtropical
ridge caused by an upper-level trough over Texas, northern Mexico,
and the adjacent Gulf of Mexico. The forecast track is basically an
update of the previous forecast. It should be noted that the
latest GFS run continues to forecast a re-formation of the center to
the north sometime on Friday, and the forecast forward motion tries
to account for this possibility.

The aforementioned upper-level trough is causing shear over the
system, and present indications are that some shear will persist
through landfall and hinder development. The intensity forecast
calls for the low to become a tropical cyclone in about 12 h,
followed by some modest strengthening to tropical storm strength at
24-36 h. This would be followed by weakening over land, with the
system dissipating over the southeastern United States between 72-
96 h. There is a chance that, due to the interaction with the
upper-level trough, the system may take on subtropical cyclone
characteristics instead of tropical cyclone characteristics. The
new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast, and it
lies at the upper edge of the intensity guidance envelope.

Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users
should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and
wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center and arrive
well in advance of landfall.

Key Messages:

1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall, considerable
flash, urban and small stream flooding beginning Friday and
continuing through the weekend along the Central Gulf coast,
spreading northeastward into the Southern Appalachians.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin Friday in areas
near and well to the east of the center along portions of the
central Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the
Alabama/Florida border, including New Orleans.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 23.5N 92.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 18/1200Z 25.0N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 19/0000Z 27.2N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 29.8N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 20/0000Z 32.0N 88.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 20/1200Z 34.1N 86.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 21/0000Z 35.6N 83.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number 3...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

Corrected to add states to storm surge communication points

...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 91.5W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM SSW OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward for the
Florida Panhandle from the Alabama/Florida border to the
Okaloosa/Walton County line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County line.
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the poorly defined disturbance was
centered near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 91.5 West. The system
is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected for the next day or so. On the forecast
track, the system will approach the north-central Gulf Coast
tonight or early Saturday. A slow northeastward motion across the
southeastern United States is likely after landfall through the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and a subtropical or tropical storm
is likely to form over the west-central or northwestern Gulf of
Mexico later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches),
based on observations from NOAA buoy 42001.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3,
WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
www.huricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches are expected across portions of the Central
Gulf Coast beginning today. Considerable flash, urban and small
stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed minor to isolated
moderate river flooding are likely.

As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend,
anticipate heavy rain to expand across southeastern Mississippi,
southern and central Alabama, and central Georgia resulting in
rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7
inches. Flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding
impacts are possible.

The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce total
rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of 8 inches across
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Intracoastal City, LA to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft
Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay ...2-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL... 1-2 ft
Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area later today, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

TORNADOES: The threat for a tornado or two will begin this afternoon
across coastal Louisiana, then spread overnight into Saturday across
southern portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, to the
western Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake



Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

The system became a little better organized overnight at the
northern end of its associated broad surface trough over the central
Gulf of Mexico. Satellite images show increasing deep convection
along with more curvature to the low clouds, suggesting that the
ill-defined center of this system is trying to re-form farther to
the north. Since it still lacks a well-defined center, the system
remains a potential tropical cyclone. Recent scatterometer data
indicate that winds have increased to at least 30 kt and have grown
over a larger area on the east side of the circulation.

The initial motion is a highly uncertain 360/12. There is fair
agreement that this northward motion, with some re-formation of the
center, will continue as the system remains steered by a
subtropical ridge to the southeast. The low should then turn
northeastward and move across the southeastern U.S. No
significant changes were made to the previous track forecast and
the guidance is in fairly good agreement. It should also be noted
that model "spaghetti" plots are not doing a good job tracking the
center of this system, and could give a very misleading impression
on the forecast track if used by themselves.

There is still a lot of shear over the Gulf of Mexico and that
should continue through landfall. However, the system is somewhat
hybrid in nature and the shear shouldn't prevent its intensification
to a tropical storm later today (possibly with subtropical
characteristics). Model guidance is consistent with slow
strengthening until landfall, and the new forecast is close to the
previous one. After landfall, most of the global models show a
strong band of heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds persisting
on the southeastern side. The expected large distance from the
center necessitates extending the Tropical Storm Warning into the
northwestern Florida panhandle. The system will likely dissipate in
about 3 days over the southeastern United States.

Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users
should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and
wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center and arrive
well in advance of landfall.

Key Messages:

1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall, considerable
flash, urban and small stream flooding beginning today and
continuing through the weekend along the Central Gulf coast with
flood impacts spreading northeastward into the Southern
Appalachians.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin today in areas
near and well to the east of the center along portions of the
central Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the
Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 25.2N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 18/1800Z 27.0N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 19/0600Z 29.2N 91.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 31.0N 89.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 20/0600Z 32.6N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 20/1800Z 34.5N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
700 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 91.5W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSW OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County line.
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the broad area of low pressure was
centered near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 91.5 West. The system
is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected for the next day or so. On the forecast track,
the system will approach the north-central Gulf Coast tonight or
early Saturday. A slow northeastward motion across the southeastern
United States is likely after landfall through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and a subtropical or tropical
storm is likely to form over the central or northern Gulf
of Mexico later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches),
based on surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3,
WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches are expected across portions of the Central
Gulf Coast beginning today. Considerable flash, urban and small
stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed minor to isolated
moderate river flooding are likely.

As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend,
anticipate heavy rain to expand across southeastern Mississippi,
southern and central Alabama, and central Georgia resulting in
rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7
inches. Flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding
impacts are possible.

The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce total
rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of 8 inches across
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Intracoastal City, LA to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft
Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay ...2-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL... 1-2 ft
Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area later today, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

TORNADOES: The threat for a tornado or two will begin this afternoon
across coastal Louisiana, then spread overnight into Saturday across
southern portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, to the
western Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS BEGINNING TO REACH PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 91.1W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SSW OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Morgan City
westward to Intracoastal City, Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County line
Florida.
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 26.5 North, longitude 91.1 West. The system is moving
toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general
motion is expected for the next day or so. On the forecast track,
the system will make landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast
tonight or early Saturday. A slow northeastward motion across the
southeastern United States is likely after landfall through the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and a subtropical or tropical
storm is likely to form over the central or northern Gulf
of Mexico later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 1007 mb (29.74
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3,
WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3. ... y_messages.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches are expected across portions of the Central
Gulf Coast beginning today. Considerable flash, urban and small
stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed minor to isolated
moderate river flooding are likely.

As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend,
anticipate heavy rain to expand across southeastern Mississippi,
southern and central Alabama, and central Georgia resulting in
rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7
inches. Flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding
impacts are possible.

The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce total
rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of 8 inches across
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft
Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay...2-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL...1-2 ft
Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-2 ft
Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA...1-2 ft
Vermilion Bay...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area later today, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

TORNADOES: The threat for a tornado or two will begin this afternoon
across coastal Louisiana, then spread overnight into Saturday across
southern portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, to the
western Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

The cyclone is gradually becoming better organized. Deep convection
has increased during the past several hours, but it remains confined
to the east side of the circulation due to about 20 kt of
west-southwesterly wind shear. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have
been investigating the system and they found a surface center a
little to the east of where we previously expected it to be, but
have otherwise reported generally light winds. Based on surrounding
surface observations and the aircraft data, the initial intensity is
held at 30 kt for this advisory. The leading edge of the rain is
just reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast, and conditions
will continue to deteriorate there through tonight.

The broad disturbance is moving north-northeastward at about 12 kt
into a weakness in the subtropical ridge. This motion should
continue during the next 12 to 24 hours, taking the center of the
cyclone to the coast of southeastern Louisiana overnight or on
Saturday morning. After landfall, a turn to the right across the
southeast U.S. is expected when the system becomes embedded in the
westerly flow on the north side of the ridge. The models are in
good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is a little to the east
of the previous one based on the initial position and motion.

Although the system will likely become a tropical storm later today
or tonight, significant strengthening is not expected due to its
broad and asymmetric structure, ongoing west-southwesterly shear,
and limited time over the Gulf of Mexico waters. The models are in
quite good agreement overall, and the NHC intensity forecast lies
near the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. It should be noted that the
cyclone could be a little stronger at landfall than shown below
since that is expected to occur between the 12- and 24-h forecast
times.

Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users
should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and
wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center and arrive
well in advance of landfall.

Key Messages:

1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall, considerable
flash, urban and small stream flooding beginning today and
continuing through the weekend along the Central Gulf coast.
Flood impacts will spread northeastward into the Southern
Appalachians.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later today in
areas near and well to the east of the center along portions of the
central Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the
Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 26.5N 91.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 19/0000Z 28.2N 90.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 19/1200Z 30.3N 90.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 20/0000Z 32.1N 88.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 20/1200Z 33.4N 86.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 21/0000Z 34.5N 83.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
100 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

...DISTURBANCE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS BEGINNING TO REACH
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 91.1W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SSW OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County line
Florida.
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 6-12 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
27.3 North, longitude 91.1 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a north to north-northeast motion
is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the
system will make landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast
tonight or early Saturday. A northeastward motion across the
southeastern United States is likely after landfall through the
weekend.

Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased
to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. The circulation is
gradually becoming better defined, and a tropical storm is likely to
form over the north-central Gulf of Mexico later today or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles east of
the center. A NOAA C-MAN station at the Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River recently reported sustained winds of 44 mph (71
km/h) and a wind gust of 51 mph (82 km/h) at an elevation of 125
feet (38 meters).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 1007 mb (29.74
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3,
WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches are expected across portions of the Central
Gulf Coast beginning today. Considerable flash, urban and small
stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed minor to isolated
moderate river flooding are likely.

As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend,
anticipate heavy rain to expand across southeastern Mississippi,
southern and central Alabama, and central Georgia resulting in
rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7
inches. Flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding
impacts are possible.

The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce total
rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of 8 inches across
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft
Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay...2-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL...1-2 ft
Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-2 ft
Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA...1-2 ft
Vermilion Bay...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are beginning to reach the coast
within the warning area, and these winds will continue into
Saturday.

TORNADOES: There is a threat for a tornado or two this afternoon
across coastal Louisiana, spreading overnight into Saturday across
southern portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the
western Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 91.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SW OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County line
Florida.
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 6-12 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
27.9 North, longitude 91.2 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 16 mph (26 km/h) and a north to north-northeast motion
is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the
system will make landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast
tonight or early Saturday. A northeastward or east-northeastward
motion across the southeastern United States is forecast after
landfall through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the
circulation is gradually becoming better defined, and the system
still is likely to become a tropical or subtropical storm before
landfall. Regardless of its status, little change in strength is
expected through landfall. Weakening is forecast to begin after the
system crosses the coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations and Air Force Hurricane Hunter data is 1006 mb (29.71
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3,
WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3. ... y_messages.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches across portions of the Central Gulf Coast. Considerable
flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts as well as new and
renewed minor to isolated moderate river flooding are likely.

As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, heavy
rain will expand across southeastern Mississippi, southern and
central Alabama, central to northern Georgia, far western North
Carolina and western South Carolina, resulting in rainfall totals of
3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. Flash,
urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding impacts are
possible.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft
Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay...2-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL...1-2 ft
Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-2 ft
Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA...1-2 ft
Vermilion Bay...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are beginning to reach the coast
within the warning area, and these winds will continue into
Saturday.

TORNADOES: There is a threat for a tornado or two tonight
across coastal Louisiana. A few tornadoes are possible on
Saturday across southern portions of Louisiana, Mississippi,
Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

A few hours ago, an ASCAT-A pass indicated that maximum winds were
about 40 kt well east of the ill-defined center of circulation, and
the initial wind speed was increased to that value at the
intermediate advisory at 18Z. Recent surface observations just
offshore of southeastern Louisiana have been reporting maximum winds
between 30 and 40 kt. Based on a combination of these data, and
since the structure of the system has not changed much during the
past few hours, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this
advisory. Although the disturbance has wind speeds of tropical
storm intensity, it has not been named a tropical storm yet since
its center is ill defined and broad as evident in the Air Force
Hurricane Hunter data and surface observations. Regardless of its
status, heavy rains and tropical-storm-force winds are spreading
across portions of the northern Gulf coast, and these conditions
will spread inland through tonight.

There has not been much change to the track forecast reasoning. The
cyclone is moving northward at about 14 kt, and a general north to
north-northeast motion is expected through landfall, which is likely
to occur overnight or early Saturday morning. After the system
moves inland, a turn to the northeast and then east-northeast
across the southeast U.S. is predicted when the cyclone becomes
embedded in the westerlies on the north side of the subtropical
ridge. The models remain in relatively good agreement, and only
small changes were made to the previous track forecast.

There is some opportunity for a little strengthening during the next
6 to 12 hours before the system makes landfall. However,
significant intensification is not expected due to the cyclone's
broad and asymmetric structure, and ongoing west-southwesterly
vertical wind shear. After landfall, weakening is forecast, and
dissipation is still predicted to occur by 72 hours. However, it
should be noted that the ECMWF and UKMET models hold onto the
vortex for a while longer.

Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users
should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and
wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center.

Key Messages:

1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall and considerable
flash, urban and small stream flooding tonight and through the
weekend along the Central Gulf coast. Flood impacts will spread
northeastward into the Southern Appalachians.

2. Tropical storm conditions have begun along portions of the
central Gulf Coast from east of Morgan City, Louisiana, to the
Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans. These
winds will spread inland and continue into Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 27.9N 91.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 19/0600Z 29.5N 90.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 19/1800Z 31.4N 89.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 20/0600Z 32.8N 87.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 20/1800Z 33.8N 84.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 21/0600Z 34.7N 81.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
700 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

...DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUING TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 91.1W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SW OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County line
Florida.
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 6-12 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
28.3 North, longitude 91.1 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 16 mph (26 km/h) and a north to north-northeast motion is
expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the
system will make landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast tonight
or early Saturday. A northeastward or east-northeastward motion
across the southeastern United States is forecast after landfall
through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the
circulation is slowly becoming better defined, and the system still
is likely to become a tropical or subtropical storm before landfall.
Regardless of its status, little change in strength is expected
through landfall. Weakening is forecast to begin after the system
crosses the coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the east of the center. An oil rig south of the
southeastern coast of Louisiana recently reported sustained winds of
44 mph (70 km/h) and a wind gust of 58 mph (93 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations and Air Force Hurricane Hunter data is 1007 mb (29.74
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3,
WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches across portions of the Central Gulf Coast. Considerable
flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts as well as new and
renewed minor to isolated moderate river flooding are likely.

As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, heavy
rain will expand across southeastern Mississippi, southern and
central Alabama, central to northern Georgia, far western North
Carolina and western South Carolina, resulting in rainfall totals of
3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. Flash,
urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding impacts are
possible.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft
Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay...2-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL...1-2 ft
Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-2 ft
Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA...1-2 ft
Vermilion Bay...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are beginning to reach the coast
within the warning area, and these winds will continue into
Saturday.

TORNADOES: There is a threat for a tornado or two tonight
across coastal Louisiana. A few tornadoes are possible on
Saturday across southern portions of Louisiana, Mississippi,
Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

WTNT33 KNHC 190243
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

...DISTURBANCE HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUING TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 90.9W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SW OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County line
Florida.
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 6-12 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 28.9 North, longitude 90.9 West. The system is moving
toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected later tonight, with a turn toward the
east-northeast expected by Saturday night or Sunday. On the
forecast track, the system should moved inland over Louisiana
during the next several hours, then move across portions of the
Gulf coast and southeastern states through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
There is still a high chance the system will become a tropical or
subtropical storm through Saturday morning while the center is over
or near water. The system is expected to begin weakening Saturday
afternoon as it moves farther inland.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the east of the center. Several oil rigs of off the
coast of southeastern Louisiana have recently reported sustained
winds of 40-45 mph (65-70 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3,
WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches across portions of the Central Gulf Coast. Considerable
flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts as well as new and
renewed minor to isolated moderate river flooding are likely.

As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, heavy
rain will expand across the interior Southeast and western
Carolinas, resulting in rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Flash, urban, small stream and
isolated minor river flooding impacts are possible.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft
Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay...2-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL...1-2 ft
Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-2 ft
Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA...1-2 ft
Vermilion Bay...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue along the coast in
the warning area through Saturday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Saturday across
southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the
western Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia.



NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

Satellite imagery indicates that the circulation associated with
the broad low pressure area over the northern Gulf of Mexico is
slowly getting better defined, and several swirls of low-level
clouds/vorticity centers were apparent in visible imagery just
before dark. However, surface data and reports from an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the surface wind field
is more like a trough elongated NNE-SSW from southeastern
Louisiana into the Gulf. In addition, the convection associated
with the system is mostly well to the northeast of the swirls.
Based on this, the low will remain as a potential tropical cyclone,
as it has not yet put all of the pieces together to be called a
tropical or subtropical cyclone.

There is again little change to the track forecast reasoning. The
initial motion is a little slower than before at 010/11. This
general motion should continue until the system reaches the
northern Gulf coast in the next 6 h or so. After the system
moves inland, a turn to the northeast and then east-northeast
across the southeast U.S. is predicted when the cyclone becomes
embedded in the westerlies on the north side of the subtropical
ridge. The new forecast is a little faster and a little south of
the previous forecast after 36 h based on the latest guidance, but
other than that there are no significant changes.

Time is running out for the system to develop further before
landfall. However, it should be noted that in this case landfall
will not instantly put an end to the chances of tropical or
subtropical cyclone development, as much of the associated strong
winds and convection will remain over water for at least 12 h.
After that time, the system should be far enough inland to
cause weakening to start. One note is that all of the global models
except the GFS now forecast the low to survive for more than 72 h.
The new intensity forecast will not change the dissipation time for
now. However, if the 00Z global models continue this trend,
subsequent advisories may need to show a longer life for the system.

Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users
should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and
wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center. Impacts
along the northern Gulf coast will continue regardless of whether
there is any additional development.

Key Messages:

1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall and
considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding, continuing
through the weekend along the central Gulf Coast, with flood
impacts spreading northeastward into the southern Appalachians and
portions of the Southeast.

2. Tropical storm conditions are occurring along portions of the
central Gulf Coast from east of Morgan City, Louisiana, to the
Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans. These
winds will spread inland and continue into Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 28.9N 90.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 19/1200Z 30.4N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/0000Z 31.9N 88.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 20/1200Z 33.2N 85.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 21/0000Z 34.1N 82.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 21/1200Z 35.5N 79.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

The system that we have been tracking for a few days finally has
enough of a well-defined center and organized convection to be
considered a tropical storm. While the organization is not
classical by any means, and there are some hybrid characteristics,
the cyclone most resembles a sheared tropical storm, so the system
is now Tropical Storm Claudette. The initial wind speed remains 40
kt, in line with surface observations and radar. These winds are
primarily occurring in a strong band on the eastern side of the
cyclone well away from the center.

Claudette is moving north-northeastward at about 10 kt. The storm
should turn northeastward and east-northeastward over the next day
or so while it moves around the northern side of the subtropical
ridge and gradually weakens to a depression/post-tropical cyclone.
The biggest change to the forecast is that almost all of the
reliable global models, save the GFS, are showing the system
regenerating near or offshore of the North Carolina coast in 60 to
72 hours. Thus the forecast has been extended from the last one
and now shows the system as a tropical cyclone over the western
Atlantic Ocean. The new intensity forecast is more conservative
than most of the guidance, but is higher than the previous advisory.
Extratropical transition is expected by 96 hours near Nova Scotia.

Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users
should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and
wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center. Impacts
along the northern Gulf coast will continue.

Key Messages:

1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and
life-threatening flash flooding across coastal Mississippi and
Alabama, and the far western Florida Panhandle through the
afternoon. Considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding,
will continue through the weekend along the central Gulf Coast,
with flood impacts spreading northeastward into interior portions
of the Southeast.

2. Tropical storm conditions are occurring along portions of the
central Gulf Coast from east of Morgan City, Louisiana, to the
Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans. These
winds will spread inland and continue through this afternoon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 29.6N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 19/1800Z 30.9N 89.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/0600Z 32.2N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 20/1800Z 33.3N 84.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 21/0600Z 34.2N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 21/1800Z 35.8N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 22/0600Z 38.5N 71.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
96H 23/0600Z 47.0N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Claudette Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 89.7W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NNE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for a portion of the North
Carolina coast from Cape Fear to Duck, including Pamlico and
Albemarle Sounds.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from the Mouth of
the Mississippi River westward to Morgan City, Louisiana, and for
Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County line
Florida.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast and across the
southeast U.S. should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Claudette
was located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 89.7 West. Claudette
is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast is expected later today, followed by a motion
toward the east-northeast tonight or Sunday. On the forecast
track, the system should move farther inland across portions of
southeast U.S. through Sunday night, and over the western Atlantic
Ocean on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Claudette is expected to weaken to a tropical
depression later today, however, Claudette is forecast to become a
tropical storm again when it moves across the Carolinas Sunday
night or early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3. ... y_messages.

RAINFALL: Claudette is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to
10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions
of coastal Mississippi and Alabama, and the western Florida
Panhandle through the afternoon. Considerable flash, urban and
small stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed minor to
isolated moderate river flooding are likely across these areas.

As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, heavy
rain will occur across central Alabama, central and northern
Georgia, and into the Piedmont of the Carolinas, resulting in
rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8
inches. Flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river
flooding impacts are possible.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft
Mobile Bay...2-3 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Mouth of the Pearl River...1-2 ft
Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne...1-2 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL...1-2 ft
Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, Saint Andrew Bay...1-2 ft

Cape Lookout, NC to NC/VA Border...1-3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue along the coast in
the warning area for a few more hours. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the watch area Sunday night and Monday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
southeast Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle, and southwest
Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi




Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Claudette continues to move inland, with the center now located
over southern Mississippi. Most of the showers and thunderstorms
are still located on the storm's east side and extend across
portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. Based
on surface observations, the initial intensity is estimated to be
35 kt, and those winds are occurring along the coast within the
warning area and over the northern Gulf of Mexico waters.

The tropical storm is moving north-northeastward at 12 kt. A turn
to the northeast is expected to occur soon, followed by an
east-northeastward motion tonight and Sunday as Claudette moves in
the westerlies on the north side of the subtropical ridge. This
motion should take the system across portions of the southeast U.S.
during the next couple of days and then over the western Atlantic
and toward Atlantic Canada early next week. The models are in
relatively good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope. This forecast is very similar to
the previous one, except a little to the right at the longer range
forecast times.

In the short term, land interaction should cause weakening and
Claudette will likely become a tropical depression later today. In
36 to 48 hours, however, the global models, except for the GFS, show
Claudette restrengthening when it nears and moves offshore of the
Carolinas Sunday night and Monday. This predicted strengthening is
likely due in part to baroclinic processes. The ECMWF model is the
most aggressive during that portion of the forecast showing
Claudette having peak winds of 45-50 kt along the coast when the
center is located over eastern North Carolina. Once the system
moves north of the Gulf Stream Current in a few days, it is forecast
to transition to an extratropical cyclone prior to reaching Atlantic
Canada. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the
previous one, and in line with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and
life-threatening flash flooding across coastal Mississippi and
Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through the afternoon.
Considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding, will continue
through the weekend across these areas, with flood impacts spreading
northeastward into interior portions of the Southeast.

2. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring along portions of
the Gulf Coast from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the
Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida. These winds will continue
for a few more hours.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
North Carolina coast Sunday night and Monday, and a Tropical Storm
Watch has been issued for that area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 31.0N 89.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 20/0000Z 32.0N 88.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/1200Z 32.9N 85.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 21/0000Z 33.7N 81.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 21/1200Z 35.0N 77.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 22/0000Z 37.5N 72.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 22/1200Z 40.4N 67.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 49.5N 57.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Claudette Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 87.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM W OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning on the Gulf coast has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to
48 hours.

Interests elsewhere across the southeast U.S. should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Claudette was located near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 87.9 West.
The depression is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26
km/h). A turn toward the east-northeast is expected tonight and
Sunday. On the forecast track, the system should move farther
inland across portions of the southeast U.S. through Sunday night,
and over the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Claudette is expected to weaken a little more
tonight, however, it is forecast to become a tropical storm again
when it moves across the Carolinas Sunday night or early Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Claudette is expected to produce additional rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches
across eastern Alabama, northern Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, and
South and North Carolina. Flash, urban and small stream flooding
impacts as well as new and renewed minor to isolated moderate river
flooding are likely across these areas.

The storm total rainfall is expected to be 5 to 10 inches with
isolated 15 inch totals in southeast Louisiana, southern
Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout, NC to NC/VA Border...1-3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
Sunday night and Monday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight
across southeast Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle, and
southwest Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi




Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Claudette continues to move inland with its center now located
over southwestern Alabama. Surface observations indicate that the
system has weakened, and based on that information the initial
intensity is lowered to 30 kt. This makes Claudette a tropical
depression. The cyclone is still producing gusty winds and bands
of heavy rain across portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and
the Florida Panhandle.

As expected, the tropical depression has turned to the northeast
and accelerated some, with the latest initial motion estimated to
be 040/14 kt. A turn to the east-northeast is expected
tonight and Sunday as Claudette moves in the westerlies on the
north side of the subtropical ridge. This motion should take the
system across portions of the southeast U.S. during the next couple
of days and then over the western Atlantic and toward Atlantic
Canada early next week. The models remain in relatively good
agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the
guidance envelope. This forecast is very similar to the previous
one, except again a little to the right at the longer range forecast
times.

Some additional weakening seems likely during the next day or so
while Claudette moves across the southeast U.S. However, most of
the models show the system regaining some strength when it moves
across the Carolinas and over the western Atlantic waters Sunday
night and Monday. This predicted strengthening is likely due in
part to baroclinic processes. The 12Z ECMWF is weaker than previous
runs, and overall the remainder of the intensity guidance is largely
unchanged from the previous cyclone. Based on the latest models,
the NHC intensity forecast is just an update of previous one and
lies near the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Once the system moves
north of the Gulf Stream Current in a few days, it is forecast to
transition to an extratropical cyclone prior to reaching Atlantic
Canada.

Key Messages:

1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash
flooding across portions of the Florida Panhandle, eastern Alabama,
and Georgia through tonight, and into the Carolinas on Sunday.
Considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are
expected across these areas.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
North Carolina coast Sunday night and Monday, where a Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 32.2N 87.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 20/0600Z 32.9N 86.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/1800Z 33.7N 82.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 21/0600Z 34.6N 78.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 21/1800Z 36.4N 73.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 22/0600Z 39.1N 68.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 42.3N 63.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 23/1800Z 51.0N 52.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Claudette Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
700 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...CENTER OF CLAUDETTE NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 87.7W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM W OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NNE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to
48 hours.

Interests elsewhere across the southeast U.S. should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Claudette was located near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 87.7 West.
The depression is moving toward the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h).
A turn toward the east-northeast is expected tonight and Sunday.
On the forecast track, the system should move farther inland across
portions of the southeast U.S. through Sunday night, and over the
western Atlantic Ocean on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
These winds are occurring mainly over water well to the south of
the center. Claudette is expected to weaken a little tonight,
however, it is forecast to become a tropical storm again when it
moves across the Carolinas Sunday night or early Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Claudette is expected to produce additional rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches
across eastern Alabama, northern Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, and
South and North Carolina. Flash, urban and small stream flooding
impacts as well as new and renewed minor to isolated moderate river
flooding are likely across these areas.

The storm total rainfall is expected to be 5 to 10 inches with
isolated 15 inch totals in southeast Louisiana, southern
Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout, NC to NC/VA Border...1-3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
Sunday night and Monday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight
across southeast Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle, and
southwest Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Claudette Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
400 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR MUCH OF COASTAL NORTH
CAROLINA...
...CLAUDETTE STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 85.8W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF ATLANTA GEORGIA
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM W OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of North
Carolina from Little River Inlet to Duck, including Pamlico and
Albemarle Sounds.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of South
Carolina from South Santee River to Little River Inlet.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little River Inlet to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South Santee River, South Carolina to Little River Inlet

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere across the Carolinas should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Claudette was located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 85.8 West.
The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 13 mph (20
km/h). On the forecast track, the system should cross portions of
the southeast U.S. through tonight, move over the coasts of
North Carolina into the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday, and be
located south of Nova Scotia by late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some re-strengthening is expected by late today, and
Claudette is expected to become a tropical storm again on Monday
over eastern North Carolina. Further strengthening is possible
over the western Atlantic Ocean through early Tuesday. Claudette
is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by late Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure from surface observations is
1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Claudette is expected to produce additional rainfall
totals of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches
across Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, northern and central Georgia,
and Upstate South Carolina through the morning hours. As the system
tracks north and east, bands of heavy rain will occur across
portions of central and southern Georgia, central and coastal South
Carolina into eastern North Carolina through Monday morning
resulting in rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 8 inches. Considerable flash, urban and small stream
flooding impacts, as well as new and renewed minor to isolated
moderate river flooding are possible across these areas.

Storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated 15 inch amounts
was observed in southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern
Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Claudette, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS3 with the
WMO header ACUS43 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

NC/VA Border to Cape Lookout, NC...1-3 ft
Cape Lookout, NC to Little River Inlet, SC...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in
the warning area late tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area tonight and Monday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today across parts of
Georgia and the Carolinas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake



Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
400 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

The area of deep convection near the center of Claudette has
weakened over the past several hours, though rain bands have become
more distinct in the southeastern quadrant. Surface observations
continue to indicate that the maximum winds are about 25 kt, and
these winds are almost all over the Gulf of Mexico well to the
south of the center.

Claudette is moving east-northeastward at about 11 kt. The system
should gradually accelelerate in that direction through tonight as
it moves ahead of a digging trough over the central United States,
and all of the models show the system near the North Carolina coast
by midday Monday. Claudette should then move even faster to the
northeast through Tuesday ahead of the aforementioned trough due to
stronger steering flow. Guidance remains in very good agreement
through that time, and little change was made to the previous
forecast. The end of the forecast remains uncertain as some of
the guidance is showing more of a turn to the left closer to Nova
Scotia. However, a stronger system would argue for something that
remains more separate from the large mid-latitude trough steering
the system, so the new forecast is close to the previous one, on
the south side of the guidance.

Conditions appear to be conducive for the re-development of
Claudette once it encounters a more unstable marine environment
late today. The system should move close to the Gulf Stream by
Monday afternoon, likely fueling intensification while the shear is
low. The previously divergent model suite is in better agreement
now, with the GFS, UKMET and ECMWF models all showing the system
becoming a tropical storm again near the North Carolina Outer Banks
with some strengthening over the western Atlantic Ocean.
Extratropical transiton should be quick after it moves north of
the Gulf Stream, assisted by strong shear in 48 to 60 hours. The
new intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one,
close to the NOAA Corrected Consensus Guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash
flooding across portions of the Florida Panhandle, northern Alabama,
and Georgia through this morning, and into the Carolinas through
Monday morning. Considerable flash, urban, and small stream
flooding impacts are possible across these areas.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
North Carolina coast late tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical
Storm Watch is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 33.3N 85.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 20/1800Z 33.8N 83.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 21/0600Z 34.7N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 21/1800Z 36.5N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 22/0600Z 39.3N 69.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 42.7N 63.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 23/0600Z 46.5N 58.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Claudette Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
700 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

...CLAUDETTE STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 84.8W
ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM W OF ATLANTA GEORGIA
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM W OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little River Inlet to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South Santee River, South Carolina to Little River Inlet

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere across the Carolinas should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Claudette was located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 84.8 West.
The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 13 mph (20
km/h). On the forecast track, the system should cross portions of
the southeast U.S. through tonight, move over the coast of North
Carolina into the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday, and be located
south of Nova Scotia by late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some re-strengthening is expected tonight, and Claudette is
forecast to become a tropical storm again on Monday over eastern
North Carolina. Further strengthening is possible over the western
Atlantic Ocean through early Tuesday. Claudette is expected to
become a post-tropical cyclone by late Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure from surface observations is
1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Claudette is expected to produce additional rainfall
totals of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches
across Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, northern and central Georgia,
and Upstate South Carolina through the morning hours. As the system
tracks north and east, bands of heavy rain will occur across
portions of central and southern Georgia, central and coastal South
Carolina into eastern North Carolina through Monday morning
resulting in rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 8 inches. Considerable flash, urban and small stream
flooding impacts, as well as new and renewed minor to isolated
moderate river flooding are possible across these areas.

Storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated 15 inch amounts
was observed in southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern
Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Claudette, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS3 with the
WMO header ACUS43 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

NC/VA Border to Cape Lookout, NC...1-3 ft
Cape Lookout, NC to Little River Inlet, SC...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area late tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area tonight and Monday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today across parts of
Georgia and the Carolinas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Sciencerocks]

467
WTNT43 KNHC 201442
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
1100 AM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Surface observations and visible satellite imagery show that the
center of Claudette is moving across central Georgia this morning.
Although the deep convection near the center has waned overnight,
loose convective bands are evident over portions of North and South
Carolina, and to the southeast of the center across southeastern
Georgia and northern Florida. There have been a few wind reports of
20-23 kt along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina within the
past couple of hours, with the higher reports occurring at some
elevated towers. The initial wind speed is maintained at 25 kt, but
the strongest winds are well removed from the center and occurring
mainly over water.

Claudette is beginning to accelerate east-northeastward with an
initial motion estimate of 070/15 kt. There has been no change to
the track forecast reasoning. Claudette should continue to
accelerate east-northeastward ahead of a mid-tropospheric trough
moving into the central United States. The center of the cyclone
should be near the coast of North Carolina Monday morning, and then
pass well offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday afternoon and
Monday night. The track guidance remains in very good agreement and
the updated NHC forecast is very close to the previous official
foreast.

As the large circulation of Claudette moves off of the southeastern
United States coast later today and tonight, winds will increase
along and offshore of the coast, and the system is expected to
regain tropical-storm status by Monday morning. Additional
re-strengthening is foreast on Monday and Monday night while the
cyclone moves over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. After that
time, the system is expected to quickly transition to an
extratropical cyclone, and the global models show the post-tropical
cyclone opening up into a trough of low pressure by Wednesday
morning. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the various
intensity aids and the modest deepening indicated by the global
models.

Key Messages:

1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash
flooding across eastern portions of the Florida Panhandle, North
Florida, and southern Georgia today, and into the Carolinas through
Monday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are
possible across these areas.

2. A few tornadoes are possible today across parts of Georgia and
the Carolinas.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
North Carolina coast late tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical
Storm Watch is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 33.8N 84.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 34.4N 81.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 21/1200Z 35.8N 76.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 22/0000Z 38.0N 71.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 22/1200Z 41.1N 66.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 44.3N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Claudette Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

...CLAUDETTE STILL PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOODS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 83.5W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM WSW OF ATHENS GEORGIA
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM W OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little River Inlet to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South Santee River, South Carolina to Little River Inlet

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere across the Carolinas should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Claudette was located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 83.5 West.
The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28
km/h). An east-northeastward to northeastward motion with some
increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, the system should continue to move across
portions of the southeastern U.S. through tonight, move over the
coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday,
and pass near or just south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some re-strengthening is expected tonight, and Claudette is
forecast to become a tropical storm again late tonight or early
Monday over eastern North Carolina. Further strengthening is
possible over the western Atlantic Ocean through early Tuesday.
Claudette is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by late
Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure from surface observations is
1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Claudette is expected to produce additional rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches
across the eastern portions of the Florida Panhandle into North
Florida, southern Georgia, central and coastal South Carolina into
eastern North Carolina through Monday morning. Flash, urban and
small stream flooding impacts, as well as new and renewed minor
river flooding are possible across these areas.

Storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated 15 inch amounts
was observed in southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern
Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Claudette, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS3 with the
WMO header ACUS43 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

NC/VA Border to Cape Lookout, NC...1-3 ft
Cape Lookout, NC to Little River Inlet, SC...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area late tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area tonight and Monday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today across parts of
Georgia and the Carolinas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Claudette Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
500 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

...CLAUDETTE FORECAST TO RE-STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT EXITS THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 82.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM W OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little River Inlet to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South Santee River, South Carolina to Little River Inlet

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere across the Carolinas should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Claudette was located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 82.5 West.
The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28
km/h). An east-northeastward to northeastward motion with some
increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, the system should continue to move across
portions of the southeastern U.S. through tonight, move over the
coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday,
and pass near or just south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some re-strengthening is expected tonight, and Claudette is
forecast to become a tropical storm again late tonight or early
Monday over eastern North Carolina. Some additional strengthening
is possible over the western Atlantic Ocean through early Tuesday.
Claudette is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Tuesday
afternoon or Tuesday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure from surface observations is
1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3. ... y_messages.

RAINFALL: Claudette is expected to produce additional rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches
across North Florida, southeastern Georgia, central and coastal
South Carolina into central to eastern North Carolina through Monday
morning. Flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts, as well as
isolated minor river flooding are possible across these areas.

Storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated 15 inch amounts
was observed in southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern
Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Claudette, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS3 with the
WMO header ACUS43 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

NC/VA Border to Cape Lookout, NC...1-3 ft
Cape Lookout, NC to Little River Inlet, SC...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area late tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area tonight and Monday.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible this evening across
parts of the central and eastern Carolinas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown




Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
500 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Satellite and surface observations show that Claudette's circulation
has become elongated today and that there is a fairly large area of
light winds near the center. Observations along the southeastern
U.S. coast and over coastal sections of the Carolinas indicate that
the winds have increased somewhat but these data still support an
initial intensity of 25 kt. As Claudette approaches the coast
overnight and Monday morning, restrengthening is anticipated, and
the cyclone is forecast to regain tropical storm status before it
exits the coast of North Carolina. Some additional strengthening
is forecast while Claudette moves over the warm waters of the Gulf
Stream and the shear remains low. The system should become
extratropical Tuesday afternoon when it passes near Nova Scotia,
and the global models indicate that it will degenerate into a
trough of low pressure by Wednesday morning. The NHC intensity
foreast is close to the intensity model consensus and follows the
trends of the various global models.

The depression is moving east-northeastward at around 15 kt. A
mid-latitude trough that is moving into the central United States
should continue to steer Claudette east-northeastward to
northeastward over the next couple of days. The center of Claudette
is forecast to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina Monday
morning, then pass well offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday
night, and be near or just southeast of Nova Scotia on Tuesday.
The dynamical model guidance remains in very good agreement and the
NHC forecast again lies near the various consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash
flooding from North Florida and southeastern Georgia into the
Carolinas through Monday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream
flooding impacts are possible across these areas.

2. Isolated tornadoes are possible this evening across parts of the
central and eastern Carolinas.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
North Carolina coast late tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical
Storm Watch is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 34.2N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 35.0N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 21/1800Z 36.9N 74.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 22/0600Z 39.3N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 42.4N 63.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 23/0600Z 45.5N 58.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Claudette Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

...CLAUDETTE EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT EXITS THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 81.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...50 KM NNW OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM WNW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little River Inlet to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South Santee River, South Carolina to Little River Inlet

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere across the Carolinas should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Claudette was located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 81.3 West.
The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28
km/h). An east-northeastward to northeastward motion with some
increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, the system should continue to move across
portions of the southeastern U.S. through tonight, move over the
coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday,
and pass near or just south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some re-strengthening is expected tonight, and Claudette is
forecast to become a tropical storm again late tonight or early
Monday over eastern North Carolina. Some additional strengthening
is possible over the western Atlantic Ocean through early Tuesday.
Claudette is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Tuesday
afternoon or Tuesday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure from surface observations is
1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Through Monday morning, Claudette is expected to produce
additional rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum
totals of 5 inches across portions of southeastern Georgia, central
and coastal South Carolina, and south-central to eastern North
Carolina. Flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts, as well
as isolated minor river flooding are possible across these areas.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Claudette, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS3 with the
WMO header ACUS43 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

NC/VA Border to Cape Lookout, NC...1-3 ft
Cape Lookout, NC to Little River Inlet, SC...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area late tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area tonight and Monday.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible this evening across
parts of the central and eastern Carolinas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch