WPAC: CHAMPI - Post-Tropical

[Nancy Smar]

94W INVEST 210617 1800 6.0N 157.0E WPAC 15 0

[Nancy Smar]

94W INVEST 210618 0000 4.7N 157.1E WPAC 15 1010

[Hayabusa]

GFS has generated so many fake storms and even the Euro fell for it that I refrained from talking about this model storm in the wpac thread until we have an invest for it.

ABPW10 PGTW 180000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/180000Z-180600ZJUN2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
4.7N 157.1E, APPROXIMATELY 135 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI,
MICRONESIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS
A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. A 172208Z ASCAT-A PASS REVEALS BROAD
TURNING COMPOSED OF 5-10 KT WINDS. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (30-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND LOW TO
MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND
STRENGTHEN, REACHING WARNING CRITERIA BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[ElectricStorm]

GFS thinks we could see a solid typhoon out of this. Euro not so much. Next name is Champi

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

06Z GFS stronger intensity within 72 hours, could be an STS already within that timeframe. Pretty interesting where it would eventually track, a recurve seems likely but I don't know Choi-wan got handled by the models poorly, so I am as equally open to a late recurve like Surigae or not recurving at all.

[Nancy Smar]

ABPW10 PGTW 181400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/181400Z-191400ZJUN2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.2N 155.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 153.7E, APPROXIMATELY 133
NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS A VERY BROAD AREA OF DENSE, PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITH
FRAGMENTED RAIN BANDS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE. THE SLOW CONSOLIDATION
IS ALSO EVIDENT ON RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH CONDUCIVE, WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES AND LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. FURTHERMORE, A POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER THE ANALYZED
POSITION REVEALS SUPPORTIVE, ROBUST RADIAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT THAT IS
CLEARLY EVIDENT IN THE ANIMATED EIR LOOP. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD GUAM AS IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.
//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

That's a lot of potent potential if it could ideally take advantage of that even more if it tracks further west

[Hayabusa]

Latest EPS has backed off

[Hayabusa]

[Subtrop]

WTPN22 PGTW 201300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3N 149.3E TO 13.1N 143.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 201200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.4N 149.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.0N 153.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 149.0E, APPROXIMATELY 305
NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED AREA OF FRAGMENTED CONVECTION.
A PARTIAL 200252Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A SHARP EASTERLY
WAVE OR A POSSIBLE WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CYCLING
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES
AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND STRONGER (15-20 KT) WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT IN THE GRADIENT FLOW. INVEST 94W IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 94W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
211300Z.
//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

It's not new day yet but already 00Z update, 06W soon for real now?

94W INVEST 210621 0000 11.1N 147.5E WPAC 30 1002

[cycloneye]

06W SIX 210621 0000 11.2N 147.4E WPAC 30 1002

[Nancy Smar]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1012 HPA AT 12N 148E WNW SLOWLY.

[Nancy Smar]

WTPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201251ZJUN2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 11.2N 147.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 147.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 12.1N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 13.2N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 14.4N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 15.6N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.4N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 22.2N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 27.6N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 11.4N 146.9E.
21JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210
NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN22 PGTW 201300).//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

It's now the 21st so finally new prognostic reasoning format, guess they couldn't wait so they upgraded to 06W just in time for the new implementation ?

WDPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 11.2N 147.4E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 210 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 9 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BURSTS OVER THE CENTER AND PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BANDING DISPLACED
OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES. A 202341Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING PRIMARILY
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI AND LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES OVER
THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0, CONSISTENT WITH THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE DUE TO THE WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A NARROW, WEAK
TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. THIS IS OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY WARM
SST VALUES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 06W IS FORECAST TO TRACK AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR THEN POLEWARD THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW
SLIGHTLY AS IT ROUNDS THE STR THEN ACCELERATE AS IT APPROACHES A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH OF HONSHU. DUE TO THE WEAK
OUTFLOW AND FORMATIVE LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, THE SYSTEM
WILL INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT APPROACHES GUAM WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN INTENSITY TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 24 THEN GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO
A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
DUE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL STR TO THE NORTHWEST AND A TUTT CELL FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST OF HONSHU BY TAU 72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, IN GENERAL, SUPPORTS
THE FORECAST TRACK JUST SOUTH OF GUAM WITH A SPREAD OF 62NM AT TAU
24. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS BUT SLIGHTLY POLEWARD TOWARD THE ECMF AND EEMN SOLUTIONS,
WHICH ARE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE. THE PRIMARY
REASON FOR THIS ADJUSTMENT IS THAT THE ECMF AND EEMN INITIALIZED
THE SYSTEM CENTER BETTER THAN GFS, WHICH WAS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
AFTER TAU 24, THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT
WITH THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMO
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE GFS TRACKERS, WHICH DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON
THE WESTERN AND EASTERN SIDES OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

[NotoSans]

 https://twitter.com/squirtleinhk/status/1406999601031258113

[supercane]

Glad they turned back on the radar. Tiny system.

789
WTPQ61 PGUM 211531
TCUPQ1

Tropical Depression 06W Tropical Cyclone Update
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP062021
131 AM ChST Tue Jun 22 2021

...113 AM ChST WFO GUAM RADAR POSITION ESTIMATE...

SUMMARY OF 113 AM ChST...1513 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...12.3N 144.9E
Elevation...0.5 Degrees...8200 feet
Center characteristic...Partial eyewall open to east.
Position confidence...FAIR

This position is about
80 miles south of Guam radar
130 miles south of Rota airport
190 miles south-southwest of Tinian airport
200 miles south-southwest of Saipan airport

Radar determined motion of center for...
The past hour...14 mph toward the northwest...305 deg.

SIGNIFICANT RADAR-VELOCITY REMARKS
----------------------------------
Doppler velocity 42 kt at 8250 feet in apparent eyewall east of
center.

OTHER FACTORS OR INFORMATION
----------------------------
Center motion is more northwest.

DISCUSSION
----------
Center appears to be getting better organized, and about to close
an eye feature about 30 miles in diameter.

NEXT MESSAGE
------------
Radar positions will be issued about 15 minutes after every
hour...by the National Weather Service on Tropical Depression 06W.

$$

Middlebrooke