EPAC: ENRIQUE - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 271741
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
100 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...CORE OF ENRIQUE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 105.7W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was
located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 105.7 West. Enrique has
moved a little east of north over the past few hours near 7 mph (11
km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and then northwest is
expected to begin by tonight. That general motion should continue
thereafter for a few days. On the forecast track, the core of the
hurricane, along with the strongest winds, should remain just
offshore of southwestern Mexico through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible through tonight.
Enrique is then expected to begin weakening on Monday and continue
to weaken through early this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of the
warning area and will continue to spread northwestward within the
warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible by
tonight in the Hurricane Watch area. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area today and Monday.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are
expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal
sections of Jalisco, Michoacan, and northern Guerrero in southwest
Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Stewart

[Ubuntwo]

Quite the pinhole!




Also looks like a moat is forming.

[Kingarabian]

Can't recall seeing a nice pinhole like this with such warm convection around it. Looks like the lack of cold convection has to do with localized upwelling.

[Astromanía]

Apparently this has the chance of making landfall in Baja California peninsula but just as a tropical storm

Edit: I don't like its slow movement being so near the coast, its rainbands are making tons of floods and mudslides for those areas continuously

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ENRIQUE EP052021 06/27/21 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 76 74 72 68 61 53 45 37 31 32 32 34 35 36 38
V (KT) LAND 80 79 76 74 72 68 61 53 45 37 33 31 29 28 28 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 80 78 74 71 68 63 58 52 45 37 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 12 10 8 5 6 6 7 10 9 15 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 1 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 80 81 56 48 29 35 89 96 118 114 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.3 27.9 27.1 25.8 25.5 23.9 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 147 145 145 140 132 119 116 99 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 78 79 80 79 75 76 70 70 70 69 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 17 14 12 11 10 9 9 8 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 80 106 89 81 74 86 59 49 29 37 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 83 108 94 68 54 71 23 10 4 31 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -11 -4 -4 0 0 0 -2 -6 -7 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 99 91 85 90 115 179 228 144 27 -30 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.4 21.0 21.5 22.3 23.0 23.7 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 105.6 105.9 106.1 106.5 106.8 107.3 107.8 108.5 109.4 110.2 110.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 11 11 10 9 10 8 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -8. -12. -16. -20. -22. -23. -25. -26. -28. -30.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -10. -11.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -15. -17. -18. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -6. -8. -12. -19. -27. -35. -43. -49. -48. -48. -46. -45. -44. -42.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 18.7 105.6

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/27/21 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.24 1.8
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.59 4.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.62 4.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 3.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -4.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.3
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 20.7% 17.7% 16.6% 10.3% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.2% 3.5% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 4.3% 8.1% 6.4% 5.7% 3.5% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/27/21 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF now brings a tropical storm into the Gulf of California.

[Kingarabian]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ENRIQUE EP052021 06/27/21 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 76 74 72 68 61 53 45 37 31 32 32 34 35 36 38
V (KT) LAND 80 79 76 74 72 68 61 53 45 37 33 31 29 28 28 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 80 78 74 71 68 63 58 52 45 37 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 12 10 8 5 6 6 7 10 9 15 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 1 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 80 81 56 48 29 35 89 96 118 114 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.3 27.9 27.1 25.8 25.5 23.9 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 147 145 145 140 132 119 116 99 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 78 79 80 79 75 76 70 70 70 69 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 17 14 12 11 10 9 9 8 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 80 106 89 81 74 86 59 49 29 37 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 83 108 94 68 54 71 23 10 4 31 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -11 -4 -4 0 0 0 -2 -6 -7 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 99 91 85 90 115 179 228 144 27 -30 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.4 21.0 21.5 22.3 23.0 23.7 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 105.6 105.9 106.1 106.5 106.8 107.3 107.8 108.5 109.4 110.2 110.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 11 11 10 9 10 8 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Theoretically it has about 60 hours left of ideal conditions. Ideal enough to be much stronger. Issue is where it can find some deep warm waters around the Mexican coastline...

[Yellow Evan]

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
400 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

Enrique has been trying to form an eye in visible satellite imagery
since early this morning. Each time this has occurred, the feature
has filled in shortly thereafter. The overall appearance and
structure of the hurricane has changed little today, and the latest
Dvorak T-number from TAFB indicates that the estimated intensity
remains 80 kt for this advisory. A pair of earlier ASCAT overpasses
helped to confirm the size of the wind field of Enrique, and showed
that tropical storm conditions were occurring within the warned area
of the coast of Mexico. The data also revealed that the strongest
core of winds of 50 kt or greater were about 50 n mi offshore.

Enrique move a little east of north for several hours today.
However, over the past couple of hours it appears that the eastward
component of motion has ceased, and the initial motion is now 360/07
kt. Embedded in generally weak steering flow, Enrique is currently
moving toward a weakening mid-level trough over northwestern Mexico.
A small ridge should build just to the northeast of the cyclone
tonight, forcing it to turn north-northwest then northwest. This
northwestward motion should then continue until the system
dissipates by the middle of the week. Based on the forecast track
and wind radii, the core of strongest winds associated with Enrique
are forecast to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico through
tonight and any deviation to the right could bring the strongest
winds to the coast by late tonight. As a result, the government of
Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for a small portion of the
coast of southwestern Mexico. In about 72 h, the center of the
system is forecast to be near the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

Overall, the environment surrounding Enrique is still favorable for
strengthening in the near term, and although not shown in the
official forecast, some slight strengthening could still occur
through tonight. On Monday, the hurricane is forecast to begin
moving over waters of decreasing oceanic heat content. Due to the
fairly slow motion of the cyclone over these waters, upwelling
should bring cooler waters to the surface. This would induce a
gradual weakening trend beginning sometime tomorrow. By Tuesday, the
cyclone is expected to begin moving over much cooler waters and into
a drier and stable atmospheric environment, which will hasten the
pace of weakening. Most of the guidance shows Enrique becoming a
remnant low in a few days. There is some uncertainty as to whether
or not this transition will occur before the system reaches the
southern Baja California peninsula. Therefore it is possible that a
Tropical Storm Watch could be required for a portion of the southern
Baja California peninsula by tomorrow. After Enrique does finally
become a remnant low, it should dissipate shortly thereafter. The
latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous
one, and is near the SHIPS/LGEM models through 36 h and the
corrected consensus HCCA beyond 36 h.


Key Messages:

1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two,
which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

2. The core of Enrique is forecast to pass near the southwestern
coast of Mexico tonight and the government of Mexico as issued a
Hurricane Warning for a portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force
winds are expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern
Mexico within the warning areas through early Monday. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area.

3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 19.0N 105.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 19.8N 106.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 20.5N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 21.1N 107.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 21.8N 107.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 22.6N 108.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 23.6N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 25.5N 112.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Brown

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ENRIQUE EP052021 06/27/21 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 76 74 72 68 61 53 45 37 31 32 32 34 35 36 38
V (KT) LAND 80 79 76 74 72 68 61 53 45 37 33 31 29 28 28 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 80 78 74 71 68 63 58 52 45 37 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 12 10 8 5 6 6 7 10 9 15 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 1 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 80 81 56 48 29 35 89 96 118 114 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.3 27.9 27.1 25.8 25.5 23.9 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 147 145 145 140 132 119 116 99 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 78 79 80 79 75 76 70 70 70 69 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 17 14 12 11 10 9 9 8 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 80 106 89 81 74 86 59 49 29 37 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 83 108 94 68 54 71 23 10 4 31 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -11 -4 -4 0 0 0 -2 -6 -7 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 99 91 85 90 115 179 228 144 27 -30 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.4 21.0 21.5 22.3 23.0 23.7 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 105.6 105.9 106.1 106.5 106.8 107.3 107.8 108.5 109.4 110.2 110.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 11 11 10 9 10 8 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Theoretically it has about 60 hours left of ideal conditions. Ideal enough to be much stronger. Issue is where it can find some deep warm waters around the Mexican coastline...

The biggest issue is the storm’s structure doesn’t make me confident in intensification. I’m also unsure on when or if upwelling will pose a problem as that’s extremely difficult to precisely predict the timing of these things.

[aspen]

Microwave pass from 15:55z

[Yellow Evan]

Most successful attempt at clearing an eye to date.

[Yellow Evan]

559
WTPZ35 KNHC 272349
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
700 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...CORE OF ENRIQUE LURKING JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING THE
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 105.8W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Playa Perula Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
* Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in southern portions of the Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of Enrique.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 105.8 West. Enrique is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest and then northwest is expected to begin tonight.
That general motion should continue thereafter for a few days. On
the forecast track, the core of the hurricane, along with the
strongest winds, are expected to pass near the southwestern coast
of Mexico tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight. Enrique is
then forecast to begin weakening on Monday and continue to weaken
through early this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km). A wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) was recently
reported at Manzanillo, Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the
Hurricane Warning area tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are occuring in portions of the tropical storm warning
area and will continue to spread northwestward through tonight.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical
Storm Watch area tonight and Monday.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are
expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal
sections of Jalisco, Michoacan, and northern Guerrero in southwest
Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Sciencerocks]

[Stormybajan]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/7748/3X4OFq.gif

Does anyone else get the suspicion this has passed closer to the coast than the NHC first anticipated? aka no recon?

[Yellow Evan]

647
WTPZ45 KNHC 280251
TCDEP5

Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
900 PM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021

The satellite presentation of Enrique has improved slightly this
evening with a ragged eye occasionally seen in infrared imagery. A
couple of earlier SSMI/S microwave images revealed a double eyewall
structure with the inner eyewall open to the northeast. The
microwave data also revealed good banding structure over the
southern portion of the cyclone. Although the eye has been
apparent this evening, subjective Dvorak T-numbers from both
TAFB and SAB remain T4.5 (77 kt) with objective satellite estimates
slightly lower. Therefore the initial wind speed of 80 kt is
maintained for this advisory.

The environment ahead of Enrique is forecast to remain conducive
for some additional strengthening, however the double eye structure
suggests that an eyewall cycle is occuring so little overall change
in strength is anticipated through early Monday. After that time,
decreasing ocean heat content and the possibility of upwelling of
cooler waters due to the slow motion of the hurricane are likely to
lead to gradual weakening over the next 36-48 hours. Later in the
forecast period, Enrique is expected to entrain a drier and more
stable airmass and that along with cooler SSTs and potential
interaction with the Baja California peninsula are forecast to
result in a faster rate of decay in 3-4 days. The NHC intensity
forecast is a blend of the slightly higher statistical guidance and
the HCCA and ICON consensus aids.

Enrique has been moving generally northward, but very recently it
appears that the much anticipated north-northwestward turn may be
beginning. The overall track forecast philosophy has not changed
from the previous advisory. A ridge is forecast to build to the
northeast of the tropical cyclone, which should cause Enrique to
turn northwestward on Monday, and that general heading should
continue for the next few days. The track guidance is in somewhat
better agreement than it has been over the past couple of days and
the new forecast is between the HCCA and TVCA consensus models. On
the forecast track, Enrique is expected to pass near the southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula in 2-3 days and interests
in that area should monitor the progress of this system.


Key Messages:

1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so,
which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

2. The core of Enrique is forecast to pass near the southwestern
coast of Mexico tonight and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for a
portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to
continue across the remainder of southwestern Mexico within the
warning areas through Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible in
the Hurricane Watch area.

3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 19.6N 106.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 20.3N 106.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 20.9N 106.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 21.6N 107.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 22.4N 108.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 30/1200Z 23.3N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 24.4N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 26.0N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Kingarabian]

Potential temporarily drought relief for SoCal, Arizona, and New Mexico.
 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1409299306771881987



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1409301744597753861

[Astromanía]

Damn the rainfall accumulation for Jalisco and Colima must be so bad, I hope everyone there is ok

[Astromanía]

A video of the flooding in Michoacan state due to Enrique rainbands, and for now there are two confirmed deaths but in this case in Guerrero state


Link: https://youtu.be/XSndXBURkeQ

[galaxy401]

Yeah that looks like a ton of rain falling in Mexico. That's worrying for them considering they just had Dolores earlier. I wonder if all that rain is going to slowly move westward. Some of it is over El Paso but further NW movements could bring it over Arizona. The forecast shows increased rain chance during the week. Going to be very interesting.